The US saw a huge rise in new jobs last month. Why are the markets treating this like bad news?
One thing that quite often puzzles people who do not work in financial markets is their tendency to treat seemingly good news as bad.
We got a classic example on Friday with news that US employers added 336,000 jobs in September.
That was up from 227,000 in August (a figure itself revised higher from the previous 187,000) and way ahead of the 170,000 Wall Street had been looking for.
The numbers were, in the jargon, very “hot”.
Good news? Well, yes, if you are one of the Americans who was able to move into employment during the month or switch to a better-paid role elsewhere.
So far as markets were concerned though, it was anything but good news.
The figures suggest that the US economy is continuing to motor, despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to combat inflation.
That, in turn, means that the Fed may have to resume rate hikes – having not done so since 27 July.
Both the Bank of England, pictured, and US Federal Reserve held off on imposing interest rate hikes last month
Accordingly, yields – which rise as the price falls – on US Treasury bonds spiked higher.
The yield on two-year notes jumped to as high as 4.847%, having closed on Thursday evening at 4.716%, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which had been 4.716% on Thursday evening, jumped to as much as 4.858%.
Yields are now approaching the multi-year highs hit earlier this week as markets started to price in the possibility of interest rates remaining higher for longer – a process that got under way in earnest towards the end of September.
Hetal Mehta, head of economic research at the wealth manager St James’s Place, said: “Today’s payrolls print was punchy, with the monthly change nearly double what the market was expecting and the highest since January.
“When we zoom out, we can still see evidence of an improvement in the labour market imbalance, but today’s print underscores the slow progress; the US still has far more job openings than it has people looking for work.
“This is clearly inconsistent with what the Fed requires to get inflation down, let alone signal rate cuts.”
Both the Bank of England, pictured, and US Federal Reserve held off on imposing interest rate hikes last month
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, added: “The blowout jobs report is maybe not so good news for markets.
“Not only does today’s report indicate the economy is almost too hot to handle and the Fed will need to respond with more rate hikes, it reinforces the higher for longer narrative that has been spooking bond markets for the past few weeks.”
What was particularly curious about the September numbers was that it seemed perfectly reasonable to expect a slowdown in job creation.
The long-running actors and writers strikes in the TV and film industry has depressed hiring in those industries, while the three-week old strike action being taken by the United Auto Workers union against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis can be expected to have a similar impact on the car manufacturing and car parts sectors.
That may have been the case. But subdued activity in those sectors was more than made up for by renewed hiring in the leisure and hospitality sectors where nearly 100,000 jobs were created during the month – finally taking the numbers employed in bars and restaurants back to the levels seen before the pandemic.
Other sectors that added more jobs during the month included healthcare, where 41,000 jobs were created during the month, and transport. The expected uplift created by the start of the new school and college year also had an impact.
Read more on Sky News:
Wetherspoons toasts first annual profits since pandemic
Metro Bank kicks off £3bn mortgage book sale
Musk could be made to testify in Twitter sale investigation
A weakening currency makes imports more expensive, placing upwards pressure on inflation
The impact of the numbers was felt in other asset classes. The main equity indices on Wall Street fell at the open, while on the foreign exchange markets – where the US dollar this week hit 150 yen for the first time in a year and capped a record unbroken 12-week winning run against the euro – saw the greenback resume its upward path.
The pound, after a decent 48 hours, also fell against the greenback and remains close to the levels against the US dollar it hit last March.
Not all the data released today was necessarily bad.
Average hourly earnings growth during September was up 0.2% month on month and up 4.2% on a year-on-year basis, which was slightly lower than the 4.3% seen in August.
That looks good for consumer spending on the whole, but not sufficiently strong to worry the Fed, although the latter has been looking for annual earnings growth to return to pre-pandemic levels of 2% to 3%.
The other key revelation was that the labour force participation rate – the proportion of people of working age who are in work or looking for work – was 62.8%.
That helps explain why, contrary to expectations, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% – the highest since February 2022.
The market had been looking for a slight fall to 3.7%, but the fact that the rate was unchanged speaks to the fact that more Americans of working age are entering the jobs market. The Fed will take comfort from that because, when more people are looking for work, employers have to pay less to attract them.
These latter developments do point to the “soft landing” that markets have craved.
But the overall conclusion is that the US economy is still growing sufficiently rapidly – and the jobs market sufficiently robust – for the Fed to raise interest rates at least one more time before the end of the year.
A judge has postponed sentencing in Donald Trump’s hush money case and granted permission for his lawyers to seek a dismissal.
It comes after the Manhattan district attorney said he wouldn’t oppose a motion to delay the sentencing.
In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.
It was the first time a US president had been convicted of or charged with a criminal offence.
Trump had tried to cover up “hush money” payments to a porn star in the days before the 2016 election.
When Stormy Daniels‘ claims of a sexual liaison threatened to upend his presidential campaign, Trump directed his lawyer to pay $130,000 (£102,000) to keep her quiet.
The payment buried the story and he later won the presidency.
Trump denied the charges and said the case was politically motivated. He also denied the sexual encounter took place.
New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan today delayed the sentencing, which had been due to take place on Tuesday.
The New York case revolved around payments to Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP
The office of district attorney Alvin Bragg had asked the judge to postpone all proceedings until Trump finishes his four-year presidency, which starts on 20 January.
Trump’s lawyers say the case should be dismissed because it will create “unconstitutional impediments” to his ability to govern.
Responding to Friday’s decision, a Trump campaign spokesman said: “The American People have issued a mandate to return him to office and dispose of all remnants of the Witch Hunt cases.”
The judge set a 2 December deadline for Trump’s lawyers to file their motion, while prosecutors have until 9 December to respond.
He did not set a new date for sentencing or indicate when he would rule on any motion to throw out the case.
Read more from Sky News:
Jury in civil court finds Conor McGregor raped woman
Parents pay tribute to daughter killed by ‘poisoned’ shots in Laos
Even before Trump’s win in this month’s election, experts said a jail term was unlikely and a fine or probation more probable.
But his resounding victory over Kamala Harris made the prospect of time behind bars or probation even less likely.
Trump, 78, was also charged last year in three other cases.
One involved him keeping classified documents after he left office and the other two centre on alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.
A Florida judge dismissed the documents case in July, the Georgia election case is in limbo, and the Justice Department is expected to wind down the federal election case as it has a policy of not prosecuting a sitting president.
Trump last week nominated his lawyers in the hush money case, Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, for senior roles in the Justice department.
When he re-enters the White House, Trump will also have the power to shut down the Georgia and New York cases.
US
Pam Bondi: Key proponent of Trump’s false 2020 election claims set to head justice department after Gaetz withdrawal
Donald Trump has pledged for years to surround himself with ultra-loyalists who can mould his government to his vision without barriers.
That’s precisely why he picked Matt Gaetz. Now he’s out, Pam Bondi is in and she’s equally loyal.
Gaetz was uniquely unpopular on Capitol Hill but ultra-MAGA and ultra-loyal to the president-elect.
He was chosen by the president-elect to do his bidding inside the Justice Department as attorney general.
Critics called his pick “a red alert moment for democracy” and the man a “gonzo agent of chaos” – language that would surely only affirm Trump’s decision in his own proudly disruptive mind.
Matt Gaetz has withdrawn despite Trump putting him forward for attorney general. Pic: AP
If it wasn’t for the fact that the president-elect is himself a convicted felon, and a man found liable in a civil court of his own sexual offences, the prospect of Gaetz, with all his baggage, making it through the nomination process would have seemed remote.
But Donald Trump’s return to the White House suggested anything is possible.
And so, beyond his loyalty, Gaetz was Trump’s test for his foot soldiers on Capitol Hill. How loyal were they? Would they wave through anyone he appointed?
It turns out that Gaetz, and the storm around his private life, was too much for a proportion of them.
At least five Senate Republicans were flatly against Matt Gaetz’s confirmation. We understand that they communicated to other senators and those close to Trump that they were unlikely to be swayed.
They included the Republican old guard like Senator Mitch McConnell.
Beyond the hard “no” senators, there were between 20 and 30 other Republicans who were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz on the Senate floor.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump pick Matt Gaetz withdraws
The key question is whether Gaetz was Trump’s intentional wild card crazy choice that he knew, deep down, would probably never fly.
Was Gaetz the candidate he had accepted would be vetoed by senators – who would then feel compelled to wave the rest of his nominees through?
Will Pete Hegseth’s alleged sexual impropriety concern them as they consider the suitability of the former Fox News host and army major to run the Department of Defence?
What about Tulsi Gabbard, the candidate Russian state TV calls ‘our girl’, and the appropriateness of her running America’s intelligence agencies?
These are all appointments that the politicians on Capitol Hill must consider and confirm in the weeks ahead.
Read more:
Trump hands out top jobs: Who is in, who is out
Musk picked to head up Trump’s new efficiency department
We don’t yet know who Trump will choose to direct the FBI.
There are some names being floated which will make the establishment of Washington shudder but then that’s precisely why Trump was elected. He is the disrupter. He said so at every rally, on repeat.
He was quick to pivot to another name to replace Gaetz.
Bondi is the former attorney general of Florida. Professionally she is in a different league to Gaetz. She’s been a tough prosecutor, with a no-nonsense reputation.
She is also among the most loyal of loyalists. Her attachment to Trump stretches way back.
Pam Bondi speaks during a Trump rally in November 2024. Pic: Reuters
I first came across her in Philadelphia in November 2020 when she was among Trump surrogates claiming the election back then had been stolen from them by Joe Biden and the Democrats.
She was a key proponent of the false claims the election had been rigged and Trump was the rightful winner.
The court cases concluding that was all nonsense didn’t seem to convince her.
Now she is poised to head up the Department of Justice as the country’s top law enforcement official.
US
Donald Trump on day one: Pace of change ‘like nothing you’ve seen in history’, warns campaign official
Within hours of taking office, president-elect Donald Trump plans to begin rolling out policies including large-scale deportations, according to his transition team.
Sky News partner network NBC News has spoken with more than half a dozen people familiar with the executive orders that his team plans to enact.
One campaign official said changes are expected at a pace that is “like nothing you’ve seen in history”, to signal a dramatic break from President Joe Biden’s administration.
Mr Trump is preparing on day one to overturn specific policies put in place by Mr Biden. Among the measures, reported by sources close to the transition team, are:
• The speedy and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants
• Ending travel reimbursement for military members seeking abortion care
• Restricting transgender service members’ access to gender-affirming care
But much of the first day is likely to focus on stopping illegal immigration – the centrepiece of Trump’s candidacy. He is expected to sign up to five executive orders aimed at dealing with that issue alone after he is sworn in on 20 January.
“There will without question be a lot of movement quickly, likely day one, on the immigration front,” a top Trump ally said.
“There will be a push to make a huge early show and assert himself to show his campaign promises were not hollow.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Donald Trump ally Matt Gaetz has withdrawn his name from consideration to be the next US attorney general.
But Mr Trump’s campaign pledges also could be difficult to implement.
Deporting people on the scale he wants will be a logistical challenge that could take years. Questions also remain about promised tax cuts.
Meanwhile, his pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in just 24 hours would be near impossible.
Read more:
Police file on Trump pick, Pete Hegseth
Matt Gaetz withdraws from top job
Watch: Musk and Trump’s bromance
Even so, advisers based at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort or at nearby offices in West Palm Beach, Florida, are reportedly strategising about ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Following his decisive victory on 5 November, the president-elect has moved swiftly to build a cabinet and senior White House team.
As of Thursday, he had selected more than 30 people for senior positions in his administration, compared with just three at a similar point in his 2016 transition.
Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser in Mr Trump’s campaign, told NBC News: “The thing to realise is Trump is no dummy.
“He knows he’s got two to three years at most to get anything done. And then he becomes a lame duck and we start talking about [the presidential election in] 2028.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports8 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway