Labour sources at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West count were either playing a game with us about the scale of their party’s victory or were genuinely surprised.
Early on at the count, they said they thought the swing from the SNP to Labour would be 7% to 8%, suggesting a gain of 15 to 22 seats in Scotland in a general election.
They said a 10% swing, which they claimed they didn’t expect, would suggest Labour gains of 24 seats. Later, they admitted the Labour lead was nudging up towards 10%.
But when the result was declared at around 1.30am, Labour’s majority wasn’t far short of 10,000 and the swing was a massive 20%.
In the trade – the rough old trade of politics – it’s known as expectation management. But I’m prepared to be charitable and suggest that not even the most optimistic Labour official was expecting a 20% swing.
It’s all hypothetical, of course, but the great Michael Thrasher – “the Prof” – suggests that if you take the votes cast for each party in this by-election and apply them to a general election Labour would have 42 seats in Scotland.
Fanciful? Possibly. That would take Labour back to the level it was at in 2010, when under the “great clunking fist”, Gordon Brown, it had 41 MPs in Scotland.
In 2015, when under Nicola Sturgeon the SNP won 56 of Scotland’s seats, Labour held just one, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. After winning seven in 2017, Labour slumped to one again, the resilient Mr Murray, in 2019.
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Does this by-election mean Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win a clear working majority next year. Not necessarily. It’s only a by-election and Labour has been through enough false dawns to fall for that. In 1992, for example.
Image: Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with Mr Shanks after their victory
No wonder Labour sources at the Rutherglen count were being extremely cautious, managing expectations or were indeed genuinely surprised.
Labour is on the way back, though. In its tartan fightback, this is an excellent start. Potentially, this by-election could be a defining moment in the battle to win the next election and put Sir Keir on the road to Downing Street.
It coincided with a YouGov poll showing Labour’s lead over the Conservatives back up to a hefty 21 points. So much for a conference bounce, prime minister.
The SNP weren’t the only losers in this by-election. If Labour is on the way back and on course to win big numbers of seats in Scotland, the biggest losers after Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.
The threat from Reform in Wales is “very serious”, the country’s Labour leader said as exclusive polling revealed Nigel Farage’s party is the first choice for Welsh voters.
Speaking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.
“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”
Image: Eluned Morgan spoke to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast
Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.
A More in Common poll for Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would vote for Reform if an election for the Senedd was called tomorrow.
That was followed closely by nationalist party Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour with 23%, the Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems with 7%, the Green Party with 4% and 2% for other parties or independent candidates.
Image: Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform
Of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election, less than half (48%) would vote for them again, while 15% would go to Plaid Cymru and 11% to Reform – although 13% were undecided.
A total of 883 people representative of the Welsh population were asked from 18 June to 3 July.
Last month, Mr Farage told an event in the steel town of Port Talbot, he would reopen Welsh coal mines to provide fuel for blast furnaces.
Image: Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan
Ms Morgan said she will not be “chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values”.
“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together,” she said.
“I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.
“I think we’ve got to lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that’s what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.”
She admitted “there is a possibility” Reform could be the largest party in the Senedd “and that is really concerning”.
Image: Nigel Farage in Wales
However, she said the way voting in Wales works means it would be “difficult for them to rule by themselves”.
Would she go into coalition with Reform?
“I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole,” she said.
Sophisticated drones sending “overwhelming amounts” of drugs and weapons into prisons represent a threat to national security, according to an annual inspection report by the prisons watchdog.
HMP chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor has warned criminal gangs are targeting jails and making huge profits selling contraband to a “vulnerable and bored” prison population.
The watchdog boss reiterated his concerns about drones making regular deliveries to two Category A jails, HMP Long Lartin and HMP Manchester, which hold “the most dangerous men in the country”, including terrorists.
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Ex-convict: Prison is ‘birthing bigger criminals’
Mr Taylor said “the police and prison service have in effect ceded the airspace” above these two high-security prisons, which he said was compromising the “safety of staff, prisoners, and ultimately that of the public”.
“The possibility now whereby we’re seeing packages of up to 10kg brought in by serious organised crime means that in some prisons there is now a menu of drugs available,” he said. “Anything from steroids to cannabis, to things like spice and cocaine.”
“Drone technology is moving fast… there is a level of risk that’s posed by drones that I think is different from what we’ve seen in the past,” warned the chief inspector – who also said there’s a “theoretical risk” that a prisoner could escape by being carried out of a jail by a drone.
He urged the prison service to “get a grip” of the issue, stating: “We’d like to see the government, security services, coming together, using technology, using intelligence, so that this risk doesn’t materialise.”
Image: The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country
The report makes clear that physical security – such as netting, windows and CCTV – is “inadequate” in some jails, including Manchester, with “inexperienced staff” being “manipulated”.
Mr Taylor said there are “basic” measures which could help prevent the use of drones, such as mowing the lawn, “so we don’t get packages disguised as things like astro turf”.
Responding to the report, the Prison Advice and Care Trust (PACT) said: “The ready access to drugs is deeply worrying and is undermining efforts to create places of rehabilitation.”
Mr Taylor’s report found that overcrowding continues to be what he described as a “major issue”, with increasing levels of violence against staff and between prisoners, combined with a lack of purposeful activity.
Some 20% of adult men responding to prisoner surveys said they felt unsafe at the time of the inspection, increasing to 30% in the high security estate.
Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “This report is a checklist for all the reasons the government must prioritise reducing prison numbers, urgently.
“Sentencing reform is essential, and sensible steps to reduce the prison population would save lives.”
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May: Male prison capacity running at 99%
The report comes after the government pledged to accept most of the recommendations proposed in the independent review of sentencing policy, with the aim of freeing up around 9,500 spaces.
Those measures won’t come into effect until spring 2026.
Prisons Minister Lord Timpson said Mr Taylor’s findings show “the scale of the crisis” the government “inherited”, with “prisons dangerously full, rife with drugs and violence”.
He said: “After just 500 prison places added in 14 years, we’re building 14,000 extra – with 2,400 already delivered – and reforming sentencing to ensure we never run out of space again.
“We’re also investing £40m to bolster security, alongside stepping up cooperation with police to combat drones and stop the contraband which fuels violence behind bars.”