Western support for Ukraine is waning, but it’s up to Zelenskyy to decide what happens next
Rishi Sunak pledged the UK government’s continued commitment to Ukraine during his speech at the Conservative Party conference.
Joe Biden has also reaffirmed US support for “as long as it takes”.
However, beyond the political rhetoric, public support for the conflict is waning, and democratic elections will – inevitably – impact Western support.
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine, and will Vladimir Putin’s aggression ultimately be rewarded?
Western military support for Ukraine is vital, not only material, but also moral.
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PM tells Zelenskyy: ‘You belong here’
However, as the war drags towards its second anniversary, the West’s ability – and enthusiasm – to maintain current levels of military aid are under growing pressure.
Notwithstanding the regular and fulsome Western political support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for how long can that rhetoric translate into vital military equipment, ammunition and financial aid?
Although there remains widespread Western sympathy for Ukraine’s plight, in the post-pandemic era with cost of living issues and high energy costs, choices need to be made.
Continued support for Ukraine has impacted adversely on the economies of Western nations and evidence suggests that public opinion is drifting inexorably towards domestic priorities.
The recent election of a pro-Kremlin leader as prime minister of Slovakia – a NATO country – was built on an election promise to cease Slovakian aid to Ukraine.
Slovakia’s Robert Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine
And this is not an isolated case.
Poland is also facing crucial elections, which has led to increased tensions with Ukraine.
US presidential and UK parliamentary elections are likely next year, and with a recent US poll suggesting that most Americans do not support continued aid to Ukraine, Western “war fatigue” is mounting.
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Biden tells Zelenskyy: ‘We’re with you’
West’s primary objective has been achieved, but is a protracted war supportable?
Although President Zelenskyy remains – understandably – committed to liberating every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine, is that achievable?
This year the West has provided an extensive array of weapons, ammunition, military training and financial support.
However, four months into Ukraine’s “spring” offensive, and despite huge casualties for both sides, the frontlines remain largely static.
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Aftermath of missile strikes on Ukraine
If Ukraine was unable to make progress this summer when arguably it was as well-prepared as it could ever be, would continued Western military support simply lead to a protracted, costly and largely static conflict.
Is that supportable?
From the West’s perspective, a key motivation for supporting Ukraine – not a member of NATO – was to avoid Russian aggression threatening the rest of Europe.
Russia’s military capability has been badly damaged by the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has lost more than 2,000 of its most capable tanks – so it looks unlikely that it will have the military capability to threaten Europe again for at least a decade.
The West’s primary objective has been achieved.
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US supplies Ukraine with ammunition
Read more:
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Supplying weapons is not sustainable
But even if public support was sustained, the supply of weapons is not sustainable.
Western military aid to Ukraine has focused on high-tech weapons to enable precision strike at range, with low collateral damage; this capability has been a vital component of Ukraine’s battlefield successes this past year.
But, modern weapons are expensive – so produced in limited numbers – and once acquired the production line closes.
Leopard 2 tanks during training in Poland, part of the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine. Pic: AP
So, stocks cannot be replaced swiftly. National stockpiles can be reduced, but only by taking increasing national security risks, and that is not something that can be continued ad infinitum.
The chairman of the NATO military committee has warned that Western weapon stocks are low, and there is little prospect of them being replenished in the near-term.
Western public support for the war is waning, and stockpiles of weapons are limited.
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Writing is on the wall
Ultimately, it is President Zelenskyy’s decision as to what next, but since all conflicts either end when one side is defeated – unlikely in this war – or a compromise is reached, the writing is on the wall.
Even if a compromise would be seen by many as a success for Putin, some might venture that it is better to “learn the wisdom of compromise, for it is better to bend a little than to break”.
However, that might prove a short-term palliative for a war-weary West.
But would such a decision deter Putin from future expansionist ambitions, and how would a compromise impact China’s calculus when considering its options over Taiwan?
As James Russell Lowell once opined, “compromise makes a good umbrella but a poor roof”.
An audacious Ukrainian drone attack against multiple airbases across Russia is a humiliating security breach for Vladimir Putin that will doubtless trigger a furious response.
Pro-Kremlin bloggers have described the drone assault – which Ukrainian security sources said hit more than 40 Russian warplanes – as “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” in reference to the Japanese attack against the US in 1941 that prompted Washington to enter the Second World War.
Ukraine war latest: Russia accuses Kyiv of ‘terrorist attack’
The Ukrainian operation – which used small drones smuggled into Russia, hidden in mobile sheds and launched off the back of trucks – also demonstrated how technology and imagination have transformed the battlefield, enabling Ukraine to seriously hurt its far more powerful opponent.
Moscow will have to retaliate, with speculation already appearing online about whether President Putin will again threaten the use of nuclear weapons.
“We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on their Pearl Harbor or even harsher,” military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on his Telegram channel.
Codenamed ‘Spider’s Web’, the mission on Sunday was the culmination of one and a half years of planning, according to a security source.
In that time, Ukraine’s secret service smuggled first-person view (FPV) drones into Russia, sources with knowledge of the operation said.
Flat-pack, garden-office style sheds were also secretly transported into the country.
The drones were hidden in truck containers. Pic: SBU Security Service
The oblong sheds were then built and drones were hidden inside, before the containers were put on the back of trucks and driven to within range of their respective targets.
At a chosen time, doors on the roofs of the huts were opened remotely and the drones were flown out. Each was armed with a bomb that was flown into the airfields, with videos released by the security service that purportedly showed them blasting into Russian aircraft.
These drones were used to destroy Russian bomber aircraft. Pic: SBU Security Service
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Among the targets were Tu-95 and Tu-22 bomber aircraft that can launch cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian side. An A-50 airborne early warning aircraft was also allegedly hit. This is a valuable platform that is used to command and control operations.
The use of such simple technology to destroy multi-million-pound aircraft will be watched with concern by governments around the world.
Suddenly, every single military base, airfield and warship will appear that little bit more vulnerable if any truck nearby could be loaded with killer drones.
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The most immediate focus, though, will be on how Mr Putin responds.
Previous attacks by Ukraine inside Russia have triggered retaliatory strikes and increasingly threatening rhetoric from the Kremlin.
But this latest operation is one of the biggest and most significant, and comes on the eve of a new round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv that are meant to take place in Turkey. It is not clear if that will still happen.
US President Donald Trump has been pushing for the two sides to make peace but Russia has only escalated its war.
Ukraine clearly felt it had nothing to lose but to also go on the attack.
Two people are dead and nearly 560 people were arrested after disorder broke out in France following Paris Saint-Germain’s victory in the Champions League final, the French interior ministry has said.
The ministry added 192 people were injured and there were 692 fires, including 264 involving vehicles.
A 17-year-old boy was stabbed to death in the city of Dax during a PSG street party after Saturday night’s final in Munich, the national police service said.
The second person killed was a man who was hit by a car while riding a scooter during PSG celebrations, the interior minister’s office said.
Paris police chief Laurent Nuñez has said the man was in his 20s and although the incident is still being investigated, it appears his death was linked to the disorder.
Meanwhile, French authorities have reported that a police officer is in a coma following the clashes.
A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The officer had been hit by a firecracker that emerged from a crowd of supporters in Coutances in the Manche department of northwestern France, according to reports in the country.
Initial investigations reportedly suggest the incident was accidental and the police officer was not deliberately targeted.
The perpetrator has not been identified.
A man walks past teargas during incidents after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan. Pic: AP
A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The interior ministry earlier said 22 security forces workers were injured during the chaos – including 18 who were injured in Paris, along with seven firefighters.
In a news conference today, Mr Nuñez said only nine of the force’s officers had been injured in the French capital.
He added that fireworks were directed at police and firefighters were attacked while responding to car fires.
There were 559 arrests across the country during the disorder, including 491 in Paris. Of those detained across the country, 320 were taken into police custody – with 254 in the French capital.
Mr Nuñez said although most people wanted to celebrate PSG’s win, some only wanted to get involved in fights with police.
He also said the force is only at “half-time” in its response because the PSG team will be celebrating their Champions League victory on the Champs Élysées later today.
Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Mr Nuñez said that the police presence and military presence in Paris will be increased on the ground for the parade.
It comes after flares and fireworks were set off in the French capital after PSG beat Inter Milan 5-0 in Munich – the biggest ever victory in a Champions League final.
Around 5,400 police were deployed across Paris after the game, with officers using tear gas and pepper spray on the Champs Élysées.
Pic: AP
Pic: AP
At the top of the Champs Élysées, a water cannon was used to protect the Place de l’Etoile, near the landmark Arc de Triomphe.
Police said a large crowd not watching the match tried to push through a barrier to make contact with officers.
Some 131 arrests were made, including 30 who broke into a shoe shop on the Champs Élysées.
Police have said a total of four shops, including a car dealership and a barbers, were targeted during the disorder in Paris.
Two cars were set alight close to Parc des Princes, police said.
PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé appealed for calm in a post-match interview with Canal+, saying: “Let’s celebrate this but not tear everything up in Paris.”
Pics: AP
After the final played at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, thousands of supporters also tried to rush the field.
Police lined up in front of the PSG end of the stadium at the final whistle, but struggled to contain the fans for several minutes when they came down from the stands following the trophy presentation.
Pics: AP
Désiré Doué, the 19-year-old who scored two goals and assisted one in the final, said after the game: “I don’t have words. But what I can say is, ‘Thank you Paris,’ we did it.”
Despite being a supporter of PSG’s rivals Olympique de Marseille, French President Emmanuel Macron also said on social media: “A glorious day for PSG!
“Bravo, we are all proud. Paris, the capital of Europe this evening.”
Mr Macron’s office said the president would receive the players at the Elysee Palace on Sunday.
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Three patients have been killed and dozens of other people were reportedly injured after a fire at a hospital in Germany.
The blaze broke out in a room in the geriatric ward of the Marienkrankenhaus early on Sunday.
It started on the ground floor and spread to the level above, with smoke affecting much of the four-storey building in the city of Hamburg.
Firefighters were alerted soon after midnight.
They said they found several patients calling for help from windows, and some people were rescued using ladders.
Pic: AP
Pic: Reuters
Three adults died and more than 30 were injured in the fire, the German news agency dpa said.
One of the injured is in a life-threatening condition, while 18 have serious injuries and 15 have minor injuries, the agency added.
Read more from Sky News:
Two dead and hundreds of arrests in France after PSG win
Britain has ‘lost control’ of its borders, says minister
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Part of the building had to be evacuated, though the wounded were mostly treated at the hospital.
Two injured people were taken to other nearby clinics.
The blaze was put out within about 20 minutes. The cause is not yet known.
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