When Labour last met in Liverpool for its annual conference, Liz Truss had just delivered her mini-Budget, sterling had fallen to a 37-year low and the markets were about to be plunged into turmoil.
With her government imploding and weeks after the Johnson collapse, Labourwere on a high.
Sir Keir Starmer had clocked up a 17-point lead over the Tories – Labour’s best poll performance against its adversaries for two years. It was the conference where we saw hope give way to belief – from the top of the party to the bottom – that Labour was going to win the next general election.
A year on, and Sir Keir will arrive back in Liverpool with a growing body of the evidence to back it up.
He’s riding in on a high, smashing through the SNP in Scotland with a whopping win in the Rutherglen & Hamilton by-election. It’s the sort of result that doesn’t just put Sir Keir a nose ahead, it puts him in outright majority territory.
I know it’s only one by-election and extrapolating it out has to be treated with caution, but the 20-point swing to Labour smashed internal expectations and, if replicated across Scotland, would garner Labour 40-plus seats.
There is no route to Number 10 for Sir Keir that doesn’t go through Scotland; not since 1955 has the Labour Party formed a government with fewer than 40 seats north of the border
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“It was beyond what we hoped for,” one delighted senior Labour figure told me after the Rutherglen result.
“We have to build on it. We are the change.”
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By-election win ‘not a protest vote’ – Starmer
Change: the simple reason Mr Sunak is trying to position himself as a change candidate despite leading a party in power for 13 years. He has no option, however much of a stretch it may seem.
Both parties’ polling shows that voters overwhelmingly want things to change.
What they are yet to be convinced of is that the change has to be a Labour government. Sir Keir’s task in Liverpool this week then is to answer the question: “If not them, why us?”
“Sunak may have had ‘long-term decisions’ written up on the wall for his speech, but he didn’t have any long-term decisions in the speech,” says one senior Labour figure. “There was nothing on the economy, no plan for growth, nothing on tackling the cost of living.”
Fleshing out the five missions
What Sunak does have though, are five pledges plastered over everything he’s done for the past 10 months, which is far more than Sir Keir has got.
At the beginning of the year, the Labour leader set out five missions for government.
I know what the missions are because it’s my job to go to his press conferences and read his speeches; analyse and explain to you what he’s doing and why – but I suspect most of you haven’t a clue.
Growth for higher living standards; clean energy super power; NHS fit for the future; safer streets; breaking down barriers to opportunity: this conference will be the moment where Sir Keir gets to the brass tacks of how these missions translate into real policies.
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Three things to look for at Labour conference
There’ll be announcements on the “first steps of what each of the missions are”, says one of Sir Keir’s core team. We are going to see concrete policies, specific first steps, campaigning elements for activists. It will be the equivalent of Sir Keir’s pledge card to voters.
The approach will be different too.
In Manchester, the Conservatives used their conference to set down dividing lines for their opponent – trans and gender issues, motorists, immigration, high-speed rail, smoking – to try to draw Labour into rows they hope will play well with undecided voters.
Labour, meanwhile, wants to show it’s a government-in-waiting, that it has more important stuff to do than taking pot shots at opponents, or each other.
“We don’t need to make the case for change,” explains one senior figure. “We’ll do a bit of red meat for the hall, but we don’t need to spend our conference attacking the Tories.
“We will be telling people what will be different with Labour.”
So the tone will be professional, confident, but in no way complacent.
‘Tories will throw some wild punches’
It’s been nearly 20 years since Labour last won an election and they are desperate not to slip up, no matter how many banana skins the Tories toss at their feet.
Sir Keir will position himself as PM-in-waiting, while Rachel Reeves also has an enormous task this week to show herself to be the chancellor-in-waiting, and the person voters can trust with the nation’s finances.
Labour knows Mr Sunak’s election approach rests on falling inflation, economic upturn and tax cuts, with a lot of ‘you can’t trust Labour on the economy’ thrown in. Ms Reeves has to prove to voters they can.
“Tony Blair was said to be a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor as he approached the 1997 general election. The Ming vase now has economic credibility written on it,” one adviser joked to me.
Be it the economy and spending, high-speed rail, immigration or social wedge issues around gender, Starmer’s team is all too aware of the risks of being drawn into territory where the Conservatives want to fight, and will want to run the shadow cabinet with iron discipline in Liverpool.
“The Tories are like a boxer going into the final round and losing,” explains one senior party operative.
“They are going to throw some wild punches. Some will hit and some won’t, but they have won the past four elections and won’t be going down without a fight.”
The task for Labour is to try to dodge the attacks, stick to their battle plan and finish the course.
But the task this week is also to not just offer reassurance, but hope.
Sir Keir needs to come out of the crouch position and assert a plan and vision of Britain that gives people a reason to vote for him that goes beyond being fed up with the incumbents.
How he does that without reverting to the spending lever for public services isn’t an easy task, but it’s one he needs to pull off as he looks to seal the deal with voters.
The government has said the £3 cap would stay in place for another year, until December 2025.
But speaking on Sunday morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Louise Haugh indicated the government was considering abolishing the cap beyond that point to explore alternative methods of funding.
She said: “We’ve stepped in with funding to protect it at £3 until 31 December next year. And in that period, we’ll look to establish more targeted approaches.
“We’ve, through evaluation of the £2 cap, found that the best approach is to target it at young people.
“So we want to look at ways in order to ensure more targeted ways, just like we do with the concessionary fare for older people, we think we can develop more targeted ways that will better encourage people onto buses.”
Pressed again on whether that meant the single £3 cap would be removed after December 2025, and that other bus reliefs could be put in place, she replied: “That’s what we’re considering at the moment as we go through this year, as we have that time whilst the £3 cap is in place – because the evaluation that we had showed, it hadn’t represented good value for money, the previous cap.”
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It comes after Ms Haigh also confirmed that HS2 would not run to Crewe.
There had been reports that Labour could instead build an “HS2-light” railway between Birmingham and Crewe.
But Ms Haigh said that while HS2 would be built from Birmingham to Euston, the government was “not resurrecting the plans for HS2”.
“HS2 Limited isn’t getting any further work beyond what’s been commissioned to Euston,” she added.
Last month the prime minster confirmed the £2 bus fare cap would rise to £3 – branded the “bus tax” by critics – saying that the previous government had not planned for the funding to continue past the end of 2024.
He said that although the cap would increase to £3, it would stay at that price until the end of 2025 “because I know how important it is”.
Manchester mayor to keep £2 cap
The cap rise has been unpopular with some in Labour, with Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham opting to keep the £2 cap in place for the whole of 2025, despite the maximum that can be charged across England rising to £3.
The region’s mayor said he was able to cap single fares at £2 because of steps he took to regulate the system and bring buses back into public ownership from last year.
He also confirmed plans to introduce a contactless payment system, with a daily and weekly cap on prices, as Greater Manchester moves towards a London-style system for public transport pricing.
Under devolution, local authorities and metro mayors can fund their own schemes to keep fares down, as has been the case in Greater Manchester, London and West Yorkshire.
Shelves will not be left empty this winter if farmers go on strike over tax changes, a cabinet minister has said.
Louise Haigh, the transport secretary, said the government would be setting out contingency plans to ensure food security is not compromised if farmers decide to protest.
Farmers across England and Wales have expressed anger that farms will no longer get 100% relief on inheritance tax, as laid out in Rachel Reeves’s budget last month.
Welsh campaign group Enough is Enough has called for a national strike among British farmers to stop producing food until the decision to impose inheritance tax on farms is reversed, while others also contemplate industrial action.
Asked by Trevor Phillips if she was concerned at the prospect that shelves could be empty of food this winter, Ms Haigh replied: “No, we think we put forward food security really as a priority, and we’ll work with farmers and the supply chain in order to ensure that.
“The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs will be setting out plans for the winter and setting out – as business as usual – contingency plans and ensuring that food security is treated as the priority it deserves to be.”
From April 2026, farms worth more than £1m will face an inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than the standard 40% applied to other land and property.
However, farmers – who previously did not have to pay any inheritance tax – argue the change will mean higher food prices, lower food production and having to sell off land to pay.
Tom Bradshaw, the president of the National Farmers Union, said he had “never seen the united sense of anger that there is in this industry today”.
“I don’t for one moment condone that anyone will stop supplying the supermarkets,” he said.
“We saw during the COVID crisis that those unable to get their food were often either the very most vulnerable, or those that have been working long hours in hospitals and nurses – that is something we do not want to see again.”
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Farmers ‘betrayed’ over tax change
Explaining why the tax changes were so unpopular, he said food production margins were “so low”, and “any liquid cash that’s been available has been reinvested in farm businesses” for the future.
“One of the immediate changes is that farms are going to have to start putting money into their pensions, which many haven’t previously done,” he said.
“They’re going to have to have life insurance policies in case of a sudden death. And unfortunately, that was cash that would previously have been invested in producing the country’s food for the future.”
Sir Keir has staunchly defended the measure, saying it will not affect small farms and is aimed at targeting wealthy landowners who buy up farmland to avoid paying inheritance tax.
However, the Conservatives have argued the changes amount to a “war on farmers” and have begun a campaign targeting the prime minister as a “farmer harmer”.
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‘Farmers’ livelihoods are threatened’
Speaking to Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said he was happy with farmers protesting against the budget – as long as their methods and tactics were “lawful”.
“What the Labour government has done to farmers is absolutely shocking,” he said.
“These are farmers that, you know, they’re not well off particularly, they’re often actually struggling to make ends meet because farming is not very profitable these days. And of course, we rely on farmers for our food security.
Addressing the possible protests, Mr Philp said: “I think people have a right to protest, and obviously we respect the right to protest within the law, and it’s up to parliament to set where the law sits.
“So I think providing they’re behaving lawfully, legally, then they do have a right to protest.”