Israel-Hamas War: Why the prospect of this conflict being ‘contained to Gaza’ seems improbable
There are two parallel anxieties right now in terms of how all this unfolds.
The first is Gaza. We know what war looks like inside overcrowded Gaza because we have seen it too many times. But this is of a whole different magnitude.
The psychological shock that has penetrated deep into the Israeli psyche from the weekend’s Hamas massacres will compel the Israeli government to unleash a shock and awe retaliation on Gaza that will be truly terrifying for Gazans.
After so many civilian casualties in Israel, the civilian casualties from Netanyahu’s “we’ll turn Hamas to rubble” operation will test Israel’s allies.
Their shoulder-to-shoulder support has reflected the unprecedented brutality of the multiple Hamas terror attacks. But as civilian casualties mount, the unequivocal support for Israel’s tactics will become more nuanced.
Israel-Hamas War – watch special programme on Sky News tonight at 9pm
Will Israel differentiate between Hamas and civilians? Can it? How will civilians avoid the violence? The humanitarian challenges in Gaza will be huge.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thought he could “manage” Gaza and Hamas indefinitely. He was wrong. Hopelessness on the streets and extremist Palestinian politics collided.
That brings us to the second wider anxiety – Iran, which leverages Palestinian hopelessness, bolstering Hamas.
And Iran is how the conflict spirals. Israel is convinced Hamas’s unprecedented attack is not just inspired by Iran but funded by Iran and equipped by Iran.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi
Note what Israel’s Ambassador to the UN said in New York this weekend: “The Iranian President, the butcher of Tehran, Raisi met with the leadership of Hamas and we know that there were meetings in Syria, in Lebanon…,” Gilad Erdan said.
“So obviously, it’s easy to understand that they tried to coordinate the military, the terror armies, the terrorists, the proxies of Iran in our region…”
He is joining the dots. And if Israel finds a smoking gun, global anxiety increases.
Israel has acted alone against Iran many times. It is credited by allies for keeping Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions in check with isolated clandestine operations over the years.
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How Hamas attack unfolded – and Israel’s response
Is direct conflict with Iran a possibility? A senior Israeli diplomatic source was asked this on Sunday.
“No,” they said. “Iran’s strategy is that of proxy war and to deny a direct connection to Hamas’s efforts. They work through proxies and that’s why they are the number one state sponsor of terror. So for now we are not concerned about a direct conflict with Iran.”
Encouraging. But then those proxies – Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon – were busy on Sunday night, telling the Wall Street Journal that Iran was behind it all.
The Americans are more reserved.
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Hamas attack prompts retaliation
“On Iran’s involvement, I mean, look… it’s too early to say whether the state of Iran was directly involved or planning and supporting,” a senior administration official said on Saturday night. “I’m not going to get ahead of that. We are going to be looking at that very closely.”
The official added: “That said, there’s no doubt, Hamas is funded, equipped, armed by Iran and others.”
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The United States aircraft carrier, USS Gerald Ford, and its Strike Group of ships will be off the coast of Israel in the next couple of days.
The days ahead are impossible to map, but the prospect of this conflict being “contained to Gaza”, as US officials hope, seems improbable.
A Gaza deal is “on the brink”, President Joe Biden has said in his final foreign policy address.
The outgoing US leader said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve
peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Pic: Reuters
The US president also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” he said.
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Mr Biden was delivering his final foreign policy address before he leaves office next week.
Monday’s address will be the penultimate time he speaks to the country before the end of his presidency. He is due to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
US and Arab mediators made significant progress overnight toward brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and the release of scores of hostages held in the Gaza Strip – but a deal has not been reached yet, officials said.
A round of ceasefire talks will be held in Doha on Tuesday to finalise remaining details related to a ceasefire deal in Gaza – including over the release of up to 33 hostages – officials added.
Mr Biden went on to claim America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
World
IDF admits ‘serious offence’ after using vehicle marked ambulance in raid in which a grandmother was killed
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has admitted to a “serious offence” after a Sky News investigation analysed CCTV footage showing the moment an 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother was shot in the West Bank.
Halima Abu Leil was shot during a raid in Nablus. The grandmother died soon after.
During the course of the investigation, we noted that a blue vehicle marked as an ambulance and with a red light on its roof was used by IDF troops to enter the West Bank.
Our investigation stated: “Figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.”
The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.
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CCTV shows Palestinian grandmother shot in IDF raid
The IDF has subsequently told Sky News: “On December 19, 2024, soldiers from the ‘Duvdevan’ unit took part in an operational mission to detain terrorists in Nablus.
“During the operation, an ambulance-like vehicle was used for operational purposes, without authorisation and without the relevant commanders’ approval.”
It added: “The use of the ambulance-like vehicle during the operation was a serious offence, exceeding authority, and a violation of existing orders and procedures.”
It also said the commander of the ‘Duvdevan’ unit was “reprimanded”.
However, it gave no update into the death of Halima, saying “the circumstances of the incident are being examined”.
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The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News her death could be a “war crime”.
She said: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life.
“No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.
“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”
According to the United Nations Office Of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory, Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.
Ukraine’s president is offering a prisoner swap with North Korean soldiers it has captured, in exchange for Ukrainians held by Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made a direct appeal to leader Kim Jong Un after seizing two North Koreans in Russia’s Kursk region.
“In addition to the first captured soldiers from North Korea, there will undoubtedly be more. It’s only a matter of time before our troops manage to capture others,” he said in a video posted on X.
His video also included an offer of help to officials in California fighting the ongoing fires there.
It is the first time Ukraine has announced the capture of North Korean soldiers since their entry into the nearly three-year-old war last autumn.
Ukrainian and Western assessments say that some 11,000 troops from Russia‘s ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow’s forces, although Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un met in Pyongyang to sign a ‘military pact’ in June 2024. Pic: Kremlin Photo/AP
Mr Zelenskyy has said Russian and North Korean forces had suffered heavy losses.
“Ukraine is ready to hand over Kim Jong Un’s soldiers to him if he can organise their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia,” Mr Zelenskyy added.
He posted a short video showing the interrogation of two men, presented as North Korean soldiers.
One of them is lying on a bed with bandaged hands, the other is sitting with a bandage on his jaw.
Ukraine said on Saturday it had captured two North Korean soldiers. Pic: Volodymyr Zelenskyy/X
One of the men said through an interpreter that he did not know he was fighting against Ukraine and had been told he was on a training exercise. He said he hid in a shelter during the offensive and was found a couple of days later.
He said that if he was ordered to return to North Korea, he would, but he was ready to stay in Ukraine if given the chance.
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Sky News has not been able to verify the video.
“One of them (soldiers) expressed a desire to stay in Ukraine, the other to return to Korea,” said Mr Zelenskyy, adding that for North Korean soldiers who did not wish to return home, there may be other options available.
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