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US offshore wind could provide 133 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2050, but that potential is going to be impacted by a broad spectrum of factors, according to a new study.

Researchers with the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) felt that the current role of offshore wind power in the US has been understudied, so they modeled US offshore wind deployment in “new depth and detail.”

They found in their analysis, “Expanded modeling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States,” which is published in the journal Nature Energy, that offshore wind could generate as much as 8% of US electricity by 2050. However, that deployment could vary considerably. Depending on how a variety of factors evolve over the coming decades, they predict that it could be anything from 31 to 256 GW.

The authors used a capacity expansion model – and note in the abstract that “modeling limitations are widely acknowledged” – and found that high levels of offshore wind deployment are most likely to happen in situations where there’s a combination of strict decarbonization policies, low technology costs, fewer siting options for onshore renewables, and limited interregional transmission.

For example, the study’s core scenario considers strict zoning regulations for onshore wind and solar panels that, as a result, expand offshore wind’s market potential.

“We represent siting, energy supply, and transmission at a high spatial and temporal resolution,” said lead author Philipp Beiter, “which allows us to explore a range of decarbonization pathways and offshore wind’s future role.”

By taking into consideration a broad spectrum of factors, the researchers were able to more fully consider the growing number and severity of trade-offs that arise with decarbonization scenarios. The results illustrate how limitations affect deployment and could lead to different conclusions.

In many of the scenarios studied, offshore wind deployment is limited to the level defined by current state commitments, with solar and onshore wind meeting most new electricity demand through 2050. The amount of energy from nuclear, hydropower, and fossil fuels is relatively constant across the scenarios, with fossil-fuel generation limited by an emissions cap unless carbon capture and sequestration technology is actually available and economically viable.

Under the study’s core scenario with high load growth and electrification, offshore wind accounts for 133 GW by 2050. By comparison, installed US onshore wind farms today total about 141 GW and produce 10% of the country’s electricity.

Co-author Trieu Mai said, “For newer generation sources like offshore wind, it is particularly important to identify the types of conditions when they may be viable in different parts of the country.”

There are only two small offshore wind farms currently in operation in the US. The 800 MW Vineyard Wind off the Massachusetts coast, the country’s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, is expected to come online by the end of this year.

The researchers noted that the high uncertainty about future decarbonization pathways also raises the need for greater coordination between local, state, and federal authorities in the power sector and offshore wind infrastructure planning.

“Our study highlights several limitations that – if not addressed – can yield starkly different futures for US offshore wind,” Beiter said. “That said, many inherent limitations of energy system modeling remain and require careful interpretation and presentation.”

Read more: The US approves Revolution Wind, its fourth major offshore wind farm

Photo: Vineyard Wind 1


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Judge tosses Exxon Mobil lawsuit against activist shareholder Arjuna over climate proposal

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Judge tosses Exxon Mobil lawsuit against activist shareholder Arjuna over climate proposal

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

A federal judge in Texas on Monday dismissed a controversial lawsuit by Exxon Mobil against activist shareholder Arjuna Capital over a climate proposal, ruling that the firm’s promise it would not resubmit the proposal had rendered the case moot.

“Arjuna has eliminated any case or controversy between the Parties here, Exxon’s claim is moot and must be dismissed without prejudice,” U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman for the Northern District of Texas wrote in his ruling after a hearing held Monday.

Exxon had sued Arjuna Capital and another shareholder, Follow This, in January over a proposal they had submitted for oil major’s May 29 annual shareholder meeting calling for the company to accelerate carbon dioxide emissions reductions.

The two activist shareholders withdrew the proposal after Exxon sued, but the oil major proceeded with its lawsuit claiming that the investors could file a similar proposal at a future shareholder meeting.

Pittman had originally denied Arjuna’s request to dismiss Exxon’s claims, echoing the oil major’s arguments, while tossing out the suit against Netherlands-based Follow This due to jurisdiction issues.

But the judge said Monday that there was no longer an issue at stake in the case after Arjuna made an “unconditional and irrevocable” pledge to ensure Exxon that it won’t file a similar proposal again.

“Arjuna was caught between a rock and a hard place,” Pittman wrote in his ruling Monday. “Arjuna is a boutique wealth management firm with offices in North Carolina and Massachusetts. Exxon is one of the largest multinational conglomerates on the planet.”

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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Elon Musk says he is working on ‘Tesla Master Plan Part 4’

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Elon Musk says he is working on 'Tesla Master Plan Part 4'

Elon Musk claims he is working on ‘Tesla Master Plan Part 4’ – a second part of the on going master plan in as many years.

Part One and Two of Musk’s “master plan” for Tesla have been important pieces of literature at the company that, in many ways, laid the path to its success.

Tesla has achieved most of the goals listed in its first two master plans.

Last year, Musk released his ‘Master Plan Part 3’ through a presentation and a white paper. The third part was quite different from the first two. It didn’t really push any specific product roadmap, like the first two, and instead focused on doing the math on how we can move the entire world to a sustainable economy through electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Now, the CEO says that he is already working on a ‘Tesla Master Plan 4’:

And apparently, it is going to be “epic”.

Tesla Master Plan Part 1 and 2

On August 2, 2006, Musk published a blog post titled “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me).”

The post is worth a read, but it ends in a summary with the core principle being laid out in four steps:

  1. Build sports car.
  2. Use that money to build an affordable car.
  3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car.
  4. While doing above, also provide zero-emission electric power generation options.

It didn’t happen smoothly, but Tesla managed that for the most part with the Roadster, Model S, and then Model 3.

In 2016, Musk followed up with the “Tesla Master Plan Part 2.”

Part 2 came as Tesla was delivering the Model 3 and acquiring Solar City, which are basically the last two steps of the original plans.

In Part 2, Musk emphasized the integration of energy storage with renewable energy generation under the new “Tesla Energy” division. The creation of the solar roof was also announced in the plan.

The updated plan was also focused on self-driving capabilities, which became a priority at Tesla.

Musk summarized the Master Plan Part 2 at the end:

  1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage.
  2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments.
  3. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning.
  4. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it.

Among the other segments mentioned in the plan, Musk mentioned “a new kind of pickup,” which ended up being the Cybertruck; a compact SUV, the Model Y; a “heavy-duty truck, which became the Tesla Semi; and finally “high passenger-density urban transport.”

Every vehicle announced in the plan was unveiled, and most of them are in production, except for the “high passenger-density urban transport.”

Electrek’s Take

I feel like the Tesla master plans don’t hold as much value now that Elon has clearly shifted Tesla to an AI company.

The Part 3 was all about scaling the auto and energy businesses at a scale that would accelerate the entire economy’s transition to sustainability.

However, in the last few months, Elon killed, or at least indefinitely postponed, the $25,000 Tesla on the unboxed platform, which was a major part of the master plan part 3.

With part 3 and some of part 2 not completed, it feels premature to jump to part 4, but I’m pretty confident it is going to be all about self-driving and robots.

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Ford pulls sheet off the F-150 ‘SuperTruck’ it will race up Pikes Peak, complete with 1,400 hp

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Ford pulls sheet off the F-150 'SuperTruck' it will race up Pikes Peak, complete with 1,400 hp

Last year, we saw Ford Performance race an all-electric “SuperVan” up the hill at Pikes Peak, but this year, it’s upping the ante with a souped-up version of the F-150 Lightning called the “SuperTruck.” SPOILER ALERT… it has a huge spoiler.

The Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, also known as the “race to the clouds,” is an annual race entering its 102nd year. Teams and drivers from around the globe race up the hill’s 12.42-mile in hopes of capturing a record time.

Even as an established and long-running race event each year, Pikes Peak is slowly becoming more electrified. For example, for the time ever, a ZDX BEV from Acura will lead the way up the 14,115-foot summit at Pikes Peak as the official pace car.

Hyundai is targeting multiple records during this year’s event using its new IONIQ 5 N models. Last year, we saw Ford Performance make the climb up Pikes Peak in a customized version of its E-Transit van, calling it the “SuperVan.”

This year, Ford took a similar approach using its F-150 Lightning EV and, of course, had to name it the “SuperTruck.” Although Ford announced the F-150 Lightning’s entry at Pikes Peak on March 1, 2024, we had yet to see what the all-electric racing truck would look like.

Today, Ford officially unveiled it, and its design is quite a departure from the stock passenger model. Have a gander.

  • Ford F-150 Pikes Peak
  • Ford F-150 Pikes Peak

Ford’s F-150 SuperTruck looks to dominate Pikes Peak

Ford Performance captured several records with the SuperVan at Pikes Peak last year and hopes to make a habit of it with the help of BEV technology and a new race vehicle called the F-150 SuperTruck.

Designed with the help of Ford Design and STARD Advanced Research and Development, the American automaker describes the F-150 SuperTruck as peak (no pun intended) performance in BEVs. The customized Lightning truck may look a little funky compared to the passenger version you can see driving around town. Still, it is a moving lesson in advanced aerodynamics that can generate 6,000 pounds of downforce at 150 mph.

The truck is propelled by three STARD UHP 6-Phase Motors and Ultra-High Performance Li-Polymer NMC cells that combine for an output of over 1400 horsepower. Other unique features include a triple-element front wing, headlight ducts, hood ducts and louvers, front dive-planes, side diffusers, rear diffusers, and a multi-element rear wing.

The magnesium forged wheels are equipped with carbon ceramic brakes and Pirelli P-Zero tires, supported by a fully custom in-board suspension system.

Ford shared that the F-150 Lightning SuperTruck will be driven by Pikes Peak veteran and record holder Romain Dumas, who was behind the wheel of the SuperVan last year. Dumas spoke about this year’s climb and what he and the Ford Performance team expect to achieve:

After a successful 2023 climb, I’m thrilled to be behind the wheel again with this team and to help push the limits of what an electric vehicle can achieve on the turns of this legendary course. In testing, the F-150 Lightning SuperTruck has surpassed my expectations, so we are hoping for some good weather to try and do something very special.

Ford shared that this year, it has its sights set on besting its own 2023 record set by the SuperVan 4.2, which completed the run in 8 minutes 47.682 seconds. The 102nd annual Pikes Peak International Hill Climb is scheduled for June 23, 2024.

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