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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to be $750,000 by 2026. Heres how and why. 9118 Total views 19 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksLove him or hate him, when Arthur Hayes speaks, people listen.

Last week, as a guest on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Hayes made the case for why he believes Bitcoin (BTC) price will hit $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

Hayes said:I absolutely agree that there is going to be a major financial crisis, probably as bad or worse than the great depression, sometime near the end of the decade; before we get there, were gonna have, I think, the largest bull market in stocks, real estate, crypto, art, you name it, that weve ever seen since WW2.

Hayes cites the nearly predictable response of the United States government rushing in to intervene in every economic crisis with a bail-out as a key catalyst behind the structural problems in the U.S. economy.

He explained that this essentially creates an endless cycle of central bank printing, which leads to inflation and prevents the economy from going through natural market cycles of growth and correction. We all have collectively agreed that the government is there essentially to attempt to remove the business cycle. Like, there should never be bad things that happen to the economy, and if there are, we want the government to come in and destroy the free market. So, every time weve had a financial crisis over the past 80 years. What happens? The government rushes in, and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.

Lets take a quick look at a few of the catalysts that Hayes believes will back Bitcoins move into six-figure territory. Mounting debt and out of control inflation.

According to Hayes, mounting government debt, a large amount that needs to be rolled over and diminishing productivity can only be addressed with money printing. While monetary expansion does lead to bull markets, the consequence tends to be high inflation. In the first instance, it creates a massive bull market in stocks, crypto, real estate, things that have a fixed supply, maybe theyre productive and have some earnings. But after that, were going to find out that, actually, the government cant save everything. It cant just print as much money as they think to try to save themselves by fixing the yield and price of their bonds, and were going to get a generational collapse.

Hayes expects a massive top at some point in 2026, followed by a great depression-like situation by the end of the decade.The U.S. government bankrupted the banking system

When asked about future contributors to inflation, Hayes zoned in on the $7.75 trillion in U.S. debt that must be rolled over by 2026 and the yield curve inversion in U.S. bonds.

Traditionally, China, Japan and other nations were the main buyers of U.S. debt, but this is not the case anymore a change that Hayes believes will exacerbate the situation in the states.

Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher?

Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring. Take a look at the top right quadrant of historical interest rate regimes.

It’s basically empty. pic.twitter.com/P6MQnCU73N Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 4, 2023

According to Hayes, the U.S. banking system is functionally insolvent because the regulators made the rules in such a way that it was profitable from an accounting perspective, not an economic perspective, to essentially take in deposits and buy low-yielding Treasurys, and they could do it with almost infinite leverage and a few basis points differing in the change of the price, and everyone makes a lot of money and gets a big bonus. The banks collectively bought all these treasuries in 2021, and obviously, the price went down a lot since then, and thats why we have the regional banking crisis.

The largest concern expressed by Hayes is that at a structural level, the U.S. banking system cannot buy more debt because it cannot afford to because it is structurally insolvent. The Federal Reserve has committed to doing quantitative tightening, so its not accumulating more Treasurys.

Hayes explained that the market is digesting this, and the nuance here is that despite high rates on U.S. Treasurys, gold prices remain high and certain market participants who previously were treasury buyers are disinterested.

Currently, banks struggle to attract deposits, and the difficulty of matching their deposit rates to the current rates available in the market creates revenue and debt management stress at a level that could become critical to the function of the entire banking system. Like many cryptocurrency advocates, Hayes believes that its in times like this that a certain cohort of investors begins to look at different investment options, including Bitcoin. Hayes view on why Bitcoin is destined for $750,000

Despite what appears to be a generally dismal outlook on the global and U.S. economy, Hayes still expects Bitcoin price to outperform, placing a target estimate in the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

Hayes expects Bitcoin to continue:Chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year as we get to some sort of financial disturbance and people recognize that real rates are negative. If the economy is growing at a nominal rate of 10%, but Im only getting 5% or 6%, even though its high, people on the margin are going to start buying other stuff, crypto being one of those things.

Coming into 2024, Hayes said either a financial crisis will push rates closer to 0%, or the government will keep raising rates, but not as fast as governments spend money and people continue looking for better returns elsewhere.

The eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., Europe and perhaps Hong Kong, plus the halving event, could push the price to a new all-time high at $70,000 in June or July of 2024. Regaining the all-time high by the end of 2024 is when the real fun starts and the real bull market starts, and Bitcoin enters the 750,0000 to $1 million on the upside.

When asked whether the estimated price level would stick, Hayes agreed that a 70% to 90% drawdown would occur in BTC price, just like it has after each bull market.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Federal Reserve # Central Bank # Bitcoin Price # Hyperinflation # Markets # Stocks # Inflation # Interest Rates

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Donald Trump sending ‘top of the line’ weapons to support NATO in Ukraine war

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Donald Trump sending 'top of the line' weapons to support NATO in Ukraine war

Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.

Speaking with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.

“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States, going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”

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Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte in the White House. Pic: Reuters
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It comes as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had a “very good conversation” with Mr Trump late on Monday. He thanked him for the “willingness to support Ukraine and to continue working together to stop the killings”.

Weapons being sent from to Ukraine include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which the country has asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.

Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.

The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.

Analysis: Will Trump’s shift in tone make a difference?

As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.

His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.

Read Mark’s analysis here.

Mr Zelenskyy previously criticised Vladimir Putin’s “desire to drag [the war] out”, and said Kyiv was “working on major defence agreements with America”.

It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump over Mr Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down” from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.

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Trump threatens Russia with ‘severe’ tariffs’

During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call”, but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.

“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.

Earlier this year, Mr Trump told Mr Zelenskyy “you’re gambling with World War Three” in a fiery White House meeting, and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia as he sought to negotiate an end to the conflict.

After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”

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Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.

He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.

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How one man with a hacksaw and an e-bike became a Texas flood ‘hero’

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How one man with a hacksaw and an e-bike became a Texas flood 'hero'

Locals call him the “Bicycle hero,” but Texas man Evan Wayne says he’s just doing what he can to help his community after it was cut off due to the recent devastating and deadly flooding tragedy.

When the local Sandy Creek flooded following torrential rains in Texas, it destroyed the only bridge into one community. Residents were cut off from access to supplies, including everything from necessities like food, water, and medicine to basic comforts.

Although the bridge was impassable to cars, volunteers who quickly organized to help the stranded residents found that the damaged bridge could still be traversed on foot. Or in the case of Evan Wayne, it could be covered by an electric bike.

Evan joined hundreds of volunteers who answered the call of grassroots organizers by working together without any official capacity. While many started by hand-pulling garden carts of supplies uphill to reach the stricken community, Evan jury-rigged a trailer to an e-bike and took on as much of the load as he could, helping shuttle much-needed food and gear into the community over hundreds of round-trip journeys.

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“This was a dog trailer 48 hours ago. I had a hacksaw, hacked the top off, grabbed some bungee cords, and here we are,” explained Evan in an interview with CBS Austin, while waiting for the next load of gear to be stacked on his trailer.

In the first two days of the operation, he made around 100 round trips each day, shuttling food and water as well as critical rescue supplies. “Right now, I’m waiting on a couple of chainsaws that I’ll bring in for a crew that’s been going at it with handsaws so far.”

In addition to delivering needed supplies, Evan has often found himself moving something even more important: information. “I’ve flagged down medics. I’ve been the guy that goes between Austin EMT and STAR Flight because I’m quicker than cell phones sometimes, people don’t have signal a lot of the time.”

Evan quickly points out that he isn’t the only one helping. “I’ve got an e-bike, but other people are pulling carts. People are walking, people are carrying things. Everyone is doing what they can.” But there’s no doubt that his ability to carry more gear at higher speeds and make hundreds of round-trip journeys so far in and out of the stricken neighborhood has helped impact countless lives.

“This is all volunteers here. They’re just taking it upon themselves to get people where they need to go. I think there’s an umbrella company coming in, taking over tomorrow, but until they get here, people are just taking care of people, which is what you’ve got to do.”

E-bikes proving their worth in emergencies

While many people consider electric bicycles just another form of recreation, they’ve proven to be potent transportation alternatives after natural disasters worldwide.

Not only do their small and efficient batteries make performing hundreds of rescue trips like Evans’ possible, but recharging can be done simply and easily with a solar panel when electricity is out after a disaster. And when gas stations are out of fuel (or simply can’t pump it with the power grid down), e-bikes can keep running while gasoline-powered motorcycles or ATVs run dry.

Electric bicycle batteries have also proven to be a handy source of emergency power after hurricanes and other disasters, often helping owners keep their phones charged up for days to remain in contact with family or rescue services.

While most hope to never need theirs for emergency purposes, electric bicycles have proven their worth in countless disaster scenarios, adding benefits far beyond just alternative transportation, recreation, or fitness riding.

E-bikes can be kept running nearly indefinitely after natural disasters with access to solar recharging equipment

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New electric car grants of up to £3,750 aims to drive sales

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New electric car grants of up to £3,750 aims to drive sales

The taxpayer is to help drive the switch to non-polluting vehicles through a new grant of up to £3,750, but some of the cheapest electric cars are to be excluded.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said a £650m fund was being made available for the Electric Car Grant, which is due to get into gear from Wednesday.

Users of the scheme – the first of its kind since the last Conservative government scrapped grants for new electric vehicles three years ago – will be able to secure discounts based on the “sustainability” of the car.

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It will apply only to vehicles with a list price of £37,000 or below – with only the greenest models eligible for the highest grant.

Buyers of so-called ‘Band two’ vehicles can receive up to £1,500.

The qualification criteria includes a recognition of a vehicle’s carbon footprint from manufacture to showroom so UK-produced EVs, costing less than £37,000, would be expected to qualify for the top grant.

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It is understood that Chinese-produced EVs – often the cheapest in the market – would not.

BYD electric vehicles before being loaded onto a ship in Lianyungang, China. Pic: Reuters
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BYD electric vehicles before being loaded onto a ship in Lianyungang, China. Pic: Reuters

DfT said 33 new electric car models were currently available for less than £30,000.

The government has been encouraged to act as sales of new electric vehicles are struggling to keep pace with what is needed to meet emissions targets.

Challenges include the high prices for electric cars when compared to conventionally powered models.

At the same time, consumer and business budgets have been squeezed since the 2022 cost of living crisis – and households and businesses are continuing to feel the pinch to this day.

Another key concern is the state of the public charging network.

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The Chinese electric car rivalling Tesla

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “This EV grant will not only allow people to keep more of their hard-earned money – it’ll help our automotive sector seize one of the biggest opportunities of the 21st century.

“And with over 82,000 public charge points now available across the UK, we’ve built the infrastructure families need to make the switch with confidence.”

The Government has pledged to ban the sale of new fully petrol or diesel cars and vans from 2030 but has allowed non-plug in hybrid sales to continue until 2025.

It is hoped the grants will enable the industry to meet and even exceed the current zero emission vehicle mandate.

Under the rules, at least 28% of new cars sold by each manufacturer in the UK this year must be zero emission.

The figure stood at 21.6% during the first half of the year.

The car industry has long complained that it has had to foot a multi-billion pound bill to woo buyers for electric cars through “unsustainable” discounting.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the grants sent a “clear signal to consumers that now is the time to switch”.

He went on: “Rapid deployment and availability of this grant over the next few years will help provide the momentum that is essential to take the EV market from just one in four today, to four in five by the end of the decade.”

But the Conservatives questioned whether taxpayers should be footing the bill.

Shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon said: “Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility made clear the transition to EVs comes at a cost, and this scheme only adds to it.

“Make no mistake: more tax rises are coming in the autumn.”

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