World

Israel-Hamas war: How did this happen?

Published

2 years ago

October 13, 2023

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Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?

Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.

And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.

But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.

Israel-Gaza latest: Israel releases graphic photos of dead babies

Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.

Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.

As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”

Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was.
Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.

Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.

I asked Dr Erekat what he thought his legacy would be.

“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.

Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.

There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.

The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.

For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”

It was the last time we would speak. Dr Erekat died a few months later from COVID.

Hamas and Iran

In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.

He didn’t resemble the moderates I know in the West Bank at all. He was an Islamist. And he said Israel has no right to exist.

He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.

“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.

“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”

Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.

It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.

Israel’s caged enemy

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.

Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.

More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.

Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.

It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.

American disengagement

Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.

The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.

But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.

Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.

In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.

“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”

The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.

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And so the region’s weakest link was ignored and it ignited.

In Iran, they are no doubt delighted that a normalisation deal between their enemy, Israel, and Saudi Arabia is now in the freezer.

Mr Biden is now desperately trying to take control of the situation; to influence the remoulding of the Middle East that we are seeing.

The question is, can he? It feels out of control now.

World

Russia’s war rehearsals are worrying Europe – but they do offer NATO one thing

Published

2 hours ago

September 15, 2025

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Russia's war rehearsals are worrying Europe – but they do offer NATO one thing

On NATO’s doorstep, Russia is rehearsing for war.

It has deployed tanks, battleships and supersonic bombers for military drills with Belarus that are happening on land, at sea and in the air.

‘Zapad-2025′ are the allies’ first joint exercises since the invasion of Ukraine, and on Sunday involved the launch of a hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea.

“There are several strategic goals here that [Russia and Belarus] want to achieve,” Hanna Liubakova, an independent Belarusian journalist, told Sky News.

“Scare, show that they are capable, show that they can threaten… and of course, they’re also checking what the reaction and response could be.”

The reaction so far has been frosty, to say the least.

Ahead of the drills, Poland closed its border with Belarus and deployed more than 30,000 troops as part of its own military exercises.

Lithuania is also holding drills and said it would bolster defences along its frontiers with Russia and Belarus.

The authorities in Minsk, and in Moscow, insist the drills are defensive and not aimed at any other country.

On Friday, the Kremlin even described Europe’s concerns as “emotional overload”.

But the last time these drills happened four years ago, it led to a massive build-up of Russian troops in Belarus, which Moscow then used for part of its invasion of Ukraine a few months later.

And the drills aren’t the only thing Europe is worried about.

The show of strength comes at a time of heightened tension after recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace – first in Poland and then Romania.

There’s a feeling in the West that the drones and drills are a test of NATO’s defences and Western resolve.

But you’re unlikely to find that opinion on the streets of the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

“There is no aggression,” Mikhail told Sky News. “Exercises are normal, especially planned ones. So I think it’s fine.”

According to Kristina, Russia and Belarus are “not the aggressors”.

“I think our head of state [Alexander Lukashenko] will solve this issue and we will support him. He’s not aggravating the situation.”

A provocation or not, the drills offer NATO a fresh chance to scrutinise Russia’s military, after three-and-a-half years of costly combat in Ukraine.

It would feel a lot more comfortable, though, if they weren’t happening so close to home.

World

Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

Published

2 hours ago

September 15, 2025

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Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

The prime suspect in the disappearance of Madeleine McCann has refused to be interviewed by the Metropolitan Police.

German drifter Christian B, as he is known under privacy laws, became a leading person of interest following the three-year-old British girl’s disappearance from a holiday resort in Portugal in 2007.

He is expected to be released from a jail in Germany as soon as Wednesday, at the end of a sentence for raping an elderly woman in Praia da Luz in 2005.

The Met said it sent an “international letter of request” to the 49-year-old for him to speak with them – but he rejected it.

Madeleine vanished shortly after she was left sleeping by her parents, Kate and Gerry McCann, who went for dinner in a nearby restaurant in Praia da Luz.

The Met said Christian B remains a suspect in its own investigation – with Portuguese and German authorities also probing Madeleine’s disappearance.

He has previously denied any involvement.

Detective Chief Inspector Mark Cranwell, a senior investigating officer, said the force will “continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry” in the absence of an interview with Christian B.

He said: “For a number of years we have worked closely with our policing colleagues in Germany and Portugal to investigate the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and support Madeleine’s family to understand what happened…

“We have requested an interview with this German suspect but, for legal reasons, this can only be done via an International Letter of Request which has been submitted.

“It was subsequently refused by the suspect. In the absence of an interview, we will nevertheless continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry.”

In June, a hit-and-run theory emerged in connection with Madeleine’s death.

But her mother, Kate, has long dismissed the suggestion her daughter managed to get out of the apartment alone.

A number of searches have been carried out by German, Portuguese and British authorities since her disappearance – with the latest taking place near the Portuguese municipality of Lagos in June.

In 2023, investigators carried out searches near the Barragem do Arade reservoir, about 30 miles from Praia da Luz.

Christian B spent time in the area between 2000 and 2017 and had photographs and videos of himself near the reservoir.

In October last year, the suspect was cleared by a German court of unrelated sexual offences, alleged to have taken place in Portugal between 2000 and 2017.

The total funding given to the Met’s investigation, titled Operation Grange, has been more than £13.2m since 2011 after a further £108,000 was secured from the government in April.

World

Spanish Vuelta finale cancelled as police clash with pro-Palestinian protesters in Madrid

Published

2 hours ago

September 15, 2025

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Spanish Vuelta finale cancelled as police clash with pro-Palestinian protesters in Madrid

The finale of Spain’s version of the Tour de France has been cancelled midway through after clashes between police and pro-Palestinian protesters in Madrid.

The Spanish Vuelta’s 104km-long last leg was first paused at around 6.20pm local time (5.20pm in the UK) as police attempted to disperse the demonstrators.

Some protesters carrying anti-Israel banners had thrown barriers to block where the cyclists were supposed to pass on a finishing circuit for the mostly ceremonial ride into the Spanish capital.

The race did briefly resume a short while later, but organisers were ultimately forced to call the finale off.

Organisers said: “For security reasons, stage 21 of La Vuelta has been ended early. There will be no podium ceremony.

“The race has been officially ended and Jonas Vingegaard is the winner.”

Protesters carrying Palestinian flags jeered as the teams’ support cars passed by them along the route.

The Vuelta sees over 180 cyclists spend three weeks pedaling 3,100km through the country’s backroads – and the Grand Tour event has this year turned into a diplomatic battleground.

More than 1,500 police officers were deployed for the final stage of the race, as officials anticipated protests.

Authorities said the heavy police presence would be deployed for the final stage on Sunday, to add to the 130 officers already traveling with the race.

Horse-riding police, officers in riot gear and military-type trucks were seen near the route.

Some 6,000 protesters were expected in Madrid, along with around 50,000 fans.

Multiple stages of the Vuelta have been disrupted by protests against the presence of the Israeli-owned team Premier Tech, which earlier in the race removed the team name from its cyclists’ uniforms.

Protesters have often waved Palestinian flags along the race route. During one stage, a demonstrator with a flag tried to run onto the road ahead of two riders, causing them to crash.

Of the 10 days of racing up Sunday, six were cut short or interrupted with more than 20 people being detained by police.

The route of the final stage was cut short by 5km over traffic concerns. Previous stages were altered because of safety concerns over the protests.

Spaniards are largely sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and Spain’s left-wing government is also highly critical of Israel’s military invasion into Gaza.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez joined Ireland and Norway in recognizing a Palestinian state last year.

In June last year, Spain became the first European country to ask a United Nations court for permission to join South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide.

Israel has denied genocide and defended its actions in Gaza, accusing Spain of standing with Hamas.

The Vuelta’s winner Vingegaard, from the Visma-Lease a Bike team, had extended his lead over Joao Almeida before the final leg.

The UK’s Tom Pidcock finished in third place.