Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?
Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.
And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.
But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.
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Blinken saw photo of ‘baby riddled with bullets’
Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.
Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.
As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”
Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was. Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.
Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.
Image: Israeli soldiers on a tank near the Israel-Gaza border. Pic: AP
“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.
Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.
Image: Palestinians wave their national flag by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence east of Khan Younis. Pic: AP
There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.
The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.
For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”
Image: Palestinians evacuate the wounded after an Israeli airstrike in the Rafah refugee camp, in the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Hamas and Iran
In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.
He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.
“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.
“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”
Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.
It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.
Image: Israeli soldiers take position near Israel’s border with Gaza
Israel’s caged enemy
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.
With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.
Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.
Image: An Israeli tank fires near Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip
More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.
Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.
It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.
Image: Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
American disengagement
Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.
The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.
But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.
Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.
Image: Israeli soldiers surround a Palestinian who ran at them with a knife at the site of a music festival near the border with the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.
“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”
The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.
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It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.
Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.
But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.
Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.
We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.
A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.
Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.
Image: Debris scattered across what Iran says was the prison hospital
It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.
On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.
Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.
The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.
Image: Authorities say this building was the visitor centre
Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.
But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.
Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.
British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.
Image: Inmates are held in building on a hill above, which has been untouched by airstrikes
Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.
The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.
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The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.
The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.
Israeli-backed American contractors guarding aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades as starving Palestinians scramble for food, an investigation has claimed.
The Associated Press has reported the accounts by two contractors from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), although the organisation has strongly denied the allegations, describing them as “categorically false”.
GHF was established in February to deliver desperately needed aid to people in the besieged enclave, but its work has been heavily criticised by international aid groups.
AP’s claims, which have not been independently verified by Sky News, came from GHF contractors who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were revealing their employer’s internal operations.
Image: Palestinians are shown scrambling for aid in the footage provided to AP. Pic: AP
They said they were motivated to speak out as they were disturbed by what they considered dangerous practices by security staff who were often heavily armed.
AP reported the contractors had claimed “their colleagues regularly lobbed stun grenades and pepper spray in the direction of the Palestinians” and “bullets were fired in all directions – in the air, into the ground and at times toward the Palestinians, recalling at least one instance where he thought someone had been hit”.
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Contractor: ‘Innocent people being hurt’
“There are innocent people being hurt. Badly. Needlessly,” the contractor told AP.
Videos reportedly provided by one contractor show aid sites, located in Israeli military-controlled zones, with hundreds of Palestinians crammed between metal gates, scrambling to reach aid.
In the background, gunfire can be heard, and stun grenades are allegedly fired into crowds.
Image: Footage provided to the AP news agency allegedly shows tear gas being fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
The footage does not show who was shooting or what was being shot at, but another video shows contractors in a compound, when bursts of gunfire can be heard. One man is then heard shouting in celebration: “Whoo! Whoo!”.
“I think you hit one,” another says, followed by the comment: “Hell, yeah, boy!”
The contractor who took the video told AP that colleagues were shooting in the direction of Palestinians.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and witnesses, several hundred people have been killed and hundreds more wounded since the GHF sites started operating more than a month ago, amid claims by Palestinians of Israeli troops opening fire almost every day at crowds seeking to reach the aid.
In response, Israel’s military says it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm. It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
Image: Bursts of gunfire can be heard in the footage as Palestinians run towards aid being distributed. Pic: AP
GHF attacks ‘false claims’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it has investigated AP’s allegations.
In a statement on X, GHF wrote: “Based on time-stamped video footage and sworn witness statements, we have concluded that the claims in the AP’s story are categorically false. At no point were civilians under fire at a GHF distribution site.
“The gunfire heard in the video was confirmed to have originated from the IDF, who was outside the immediate vicinity of the GHF distribution site.
“It was not directed at individuals, and no one was shot or injured. What is most troubling is that the AP refused to share the full video with us prior to publication, despite the seriousness of the allegations.”
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Safe Reach Solutions, the logistics company subcontracted by GHF, told the AP there have been no serious injuries at any of their sites to date.
But the organisation admitted that, in isolated incidents, security professionals fired live rounds into the ground and away from civilians to get their attention.
A Safe Reach Solutions spokesperson told AP this happened at the start of their operations at “the height of desperation where crowd control measures were necessary for the safety and security of civilians”.
Jota and Silva were driving to Santander to catch a ferry back to England ahead of the start of Liverpool’s pre-season training on Monday, CNN Portugal reports.
The news outlet reports that Jota was advised against flying back to England due to recent surgery.
Police said the accident happened at 12.30am when the Lamborghini the pair were travelling in veered off the road.
Image: Palacios de Sanabria in the north of Spain
“A vehicle left the road and everything indicates a tyre burst while overtaking,” the Guardia Civil in Zamora told Sky Sports News in a statement.
“As a result of the accident, the car caught fire and both people were killed. Pending the completion of forensic tests, one of the deceased has been identified as Diogo Jota, a Liverpool FC player, and his brother, Andre Felipe.”
A Spanish government source told the PA news agency that police were investigating the crash as “a possible speeding incident”.
Image: The aftermath of the crash. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Police added that no other vehicles were involved in the incident.
Pictures of the aftermath of the crash showed debris scattered along the side of the road, including what appeared to be charred parts of the vehicle.
It comes just 10 days after the player married his long-term girlfriend, Rute Cardoso.
Image: Diogo Jota holds the Premier League trophy aloft after the club’s title win in the 2024/25 season. Pic: Reuters
Image: Diogo Jota walks the pitch with his family in 2022.
Pic: PA
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The footballer, whoplayed as a striker for Liverpool, began his career in his native Portugal and played at Atletico Madrid in Spain before moving to England.
He joined the Merseyside club from Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2020.
Image: Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp with Diogo Jota. Pic: PA
Image: Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and Diogo Jota (right) during a training session. Pic: PA
Jota played an important role throughout his five years with the Reds, including scoring six times in Liverpool’s recent Premier League-winning season.
He scored a total of 47 times in 123 matches for the club. He also played 49 times for the Portugal national side, scoring 14 times.
Silva, 25, played for Penafiel, a Portuguese second division club.
Image: Diogo Jota holding the trophy on the team bus during the Premier League winners parade in Liverpool. Pic: PA
Teammates and football legends pay tribute
A statement issued by Liverpool FC said the club was “devastated” by their player’s death.
“The club have been informed the 28-year-old has passed away following a road traffic accident in Spain along with his brother, Andre,” the club said in a statement.
“Liverpool FC will be making no further comment at this time and request the privacy of Diogo and Andre’s family, friends, teammates and club staff is respected as they try to come to terms with an unimaginable loss.
“We will continue to provide them with our full support.”
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Sky’s Greg Milam reports from Anfield Stadium where Liverpool fans are hearing about the death of Diogo Jota.
The Portuguese football federation said it was “utterly devastated by the deaths”.
“Far beyond being an exceptional player, with nearly 50 caps for the national team, Diogo Jota was an extraordinary person, respected by all teammates and opponents, someone with a contagious joy and a reference within his own community.
“We have lost two champions. The passing of Diogo and Andre Silva represents irreparable losses for Portuguese Football, and we will do everything to honour their legacy daily.”
The Portugal and Spain women’s teams held a minute’s silence for Jota and Silva before their match in the Women’s Euros in Switzerland on Thursday evening.
Image: Floral tributes left at Anfield this morning. Pic: Sky
It came after Liverpool’s manager Arne Slot said in a statement: “What can anyone say at a time like this when the shock and the pain is so incredibly raw? I wish I had the words but I know I do not.
“All I have are feelings that I know so many people will share about a person and a player we loved dearly and a family we care so much about.
“My first thoughts are not those of a football manager. They are of a father, a son, a brother and an uncle and they belong to the family of Diogo and Andre Silva who have experienced such an unimaginable loss.”
Jota’s former manager at Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp, offered his thoughts in a post on Instagram.
“This is a moment where I struggle! There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it,” he said.
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“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Diogo and his brother Andre. Diogo was not only a fantastic player, but also a great friend, a loving and caring husband and father.
“We will miss you so much. All my prayers, thoughts and power to Rute, the kids, the family, the friends and everyone who loved them.”
Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk posted on Instagram: “What a human being, what a player, but most importantly what an unbelievable family man.
“You mean so much to all of us and you always will!”
Cristiano Ronaldo, Jota’s captain in the national team, said: “It doesn’t make sense. Just now we were together in the National Team, just now you had gotten married.
“To your family, your wife, and your children, I send my condolences and wish them all the strength in the world.
“I know you will always be with them. Rest in Peace, Diogo and Andre. We will all miss you.”
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1:16
Diogo Jota married his long-term girlfriend just two weeks ago
Jota’s Liverpool teammates Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai have also paid tribute.
Szoboszlai wrote: “Words cannot describe how heartbroken and devastated we are… Your smile, your love for the game will never be forgotten.
“We will miss you so much, but you will stay with us forever, on and off the pitch.”
Jota’s former teammates Trent Alexander-Arnold, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Thiago Alcantara have also shared messages on social media.
Mane posted a picture of himself and Jota with heartbreak emojis.
It came as Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish wrote on X: “You feel helpless, knowing there’s so little we can do to ease the pain for his wife of just two weeks, his three beautiful children.”
Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard shared an image of Jota on Instagram and wrote: “Condolences to his family and friends during this incredibly sad time.”
Liverpool owners Billy Hogan, John Henry and Tom Werner, who are part of the Fenway Sports Group, said: “This tragic situation and the reality of it is truly shocking, devastating and has left us numb with grief.”
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Football icon Lionel Messi has also paid tribute, sharing an image of Jota on Instagram with the message “QEPD” – short for the Spanish phrase ‘que en paz descanse’, which translates to “may he rest in peace'”.
European football clubs such as Barcelona and AC Milan have also shared messages, along with basketball player LeBron James and tennis icon Rafael Nadal.
Meanwhile Liverpool FC have opened a physical and digital book of condolence for supporters and members of the public to sign.
The physical book is at the club’s stadium, in the Anfield Road Stand reception area until Sunday evening.
An avid video gamer, Jota also owned an eSports team and regularly streamed on Twitch.