There are some college football doozies on tap for Week 7, which once again should result in some separation in conference races (for the time being, that is) and even the race for the College Football Playoff (for the time being, that is).
Perhaps no game is bigger than No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington, pitting two high-powered offenses in a Pac-12 showdown to remain undefeated. But that’s not the only marquee matchup Saturday. USC travels to Notre Dame, which is coming off a drubbing at the hands of Louisville, and Miami, fresh off its own embarrassing loss, is at North Carolina.
Our reporters preview Week 7 with a look at the which teams need the win more, offensive lines to watch and some of the week’s best quotes.
Who needs the ‘W’ more?
Miami at North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Had Miami actually lined up in victory formation and beaten Georgia Tech last week, this would have been a far more difficult question to answer. But since the Hurricanes lost, this is an easy choice. Miami needs this one maybe more than any other team across the country needs a win. Coach Mario Cristobal has been at the center of a firestorm for opting to hand the ball off with the lead and 30 seconds remaining. You know what happened next: Don Chaney fumbled, and Georgia Tech scored the game-winning touchdown with one second remaining.
Cristobal and his players fielded one question after another this week about the way that game ended and how they would respond on the road against a vastly improved North Carolina team following such an emotional loss. Players were asked whether they had faith in their coaching staff for bungling the end of the game. In one clip from the sideline, center Matt Lee is seen crying and saying, “What the f— are we doing?” Lee said this week he had “unwavering faith” in Cristobal to get the job done. “When our leadership council met, it was all very positive and it’s, ‘Hey guys, move on.’ You have to have a short memory. You put in work all year for 12 games, so s— happens and you move on, and the team and every coach has done a great job of that.”
Miami is now 0-1 in ACC play, but this game presents a huge opportunity. The Hurricanes have games against all three current undefeated ACC teams left on the schedule: North Carolina, then Florida State on Nov. 11 and Louisville on Nov. 18. They can get themselves back into the ACC race with a win Saturday. But to do that, they have to find a way to push past the disappointment and not allow what happened against the Yellow Jackets to linger and ruin their season.
“Yeah, it sucks. We know we should have won,” quarterback Tyler Van Dyke said. “But we’ve got to move on from it. We’ve got a tough matchup this week, and we’ve just got to get ready for that.” — Andrea Adelson
Oregon at Washington: There is a compelling case for both teams here because they essentially are mirror images, sitting at No. 7 and No. 8 in the country, with high-powered offenses and Heisman candidates at quarterback.
However, Washington hasn’t been on a major stage yet this season, so this is a much bigger opportunity to make a national statement. Oregon had 10 million people watch it absolutely embarrass Colorado. This will be a similar chance for Washington, with “College GameDay” in town, a nationally televised game and an appealing kickoff time (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
If Washington loses, it will have chances to get back into the mix, but not until Nov. 4, when it travels to USC, the first of four games against ranked teams to end the season. Perhaps unfairly, a loss might also delegitimize Washington’s hot start for people who hadn’t been watching it until this week. That’s just how college football operates sometimes.
But again, a lot of this is equally true for Oregon. That’s all to say this is a game with massive stakes. It has the potential to be among the best games this season. — Kyle Bonagura
USC at Notre Dame(7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock): The answer is Notre Dame, which has already lost twice despite looking improved from last season. It needs to avoid a spiral under second-year coach Marcus Freeman. But let’s start with USC’s defense, which has been unable to shed the stink from 2022 despite upgrades.
The Trojans excel in the flashy categories — they’re in the top five nationally in sacks (22), tackles for loss (57) and forced fumbles (8) — but remain prone to busts, even though many have come with comfortable leads. Coach Lincoln Riley is tired of the criticism, saying Tuesday the defense isn’t being evaluated with enough context.
“This is a much-improved unit, there is no question about it,” Riley told reporters. “This is a unit that, when you talk about the top-end potential, has a chance to really grow and get better fast. … There’s a lot of good things happening on this defense, man.”
Back to Notre Dame. The Irish are fighting through a brutal stretch against opponents that entered their game undefeated — Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC. Quarterback Sam Hartman had not thrown an interception during six games at Notre Dame before getting picked three times against Louisville. Hartman’s accuracy has dropped in the past two games, and Notre Dame’s deficiencies at wide receiver are starting to show up again.
Freeman stressed the need to establish a run game with Audric Estime, who had just 20 yards on 10 carries against Louisville.
“If we have to simplify, we have to do it,” Freeman said. “That’s the biggest thing when you talk about the difference between two weeks ago till now. It’s like, ‘OK, we’re making mistakes [identifying] in the run game, and why aren’t we blocking this guy?’ We have to simplify to make sure there is crystal clarity on what we need to do.” — Adam Rittenberg
Florida at South Carolina: It’s difficult to see the loser of this game going on to have a successful season, a season that was pivotal for both teams — albeit for different reasons. Billy Napier, in his second season at Florida, needed to show marked improvement after the Gators suffered through a 6-7 campaign a year ago. Florida (4-2, 2-1) was pummeled two weeks ago at Kentucky and has played poorly away from home since Napier arrived. The Gators are 1-7 when they’ve ventured outside the Swamp, and after the trip to Williams-Brice Stadium, they still have to play Georgia in Jacksonville and LSU and Missouri on the road before closing the season at home against No. 4 Florida State.
For Shane Beamer and South Carolina, there was a ton of momentum surrounding the program after the Gamecocks won eight games a year ago and beat Tennessee and Clemson to end the regular season, creating lofty expectations in Year 3 for Beamer Ball. But much like a year ago, the Gamecocks (2-3, 1-2) need a strong close to the season after losing to three top-25 teams in their first five games.
Florida routed South Carolina 38-6 last season, but the Gamecocks bounced back to play their best football of the season and win their next two over Tennessee and Clemson. They’re going to need a similar resurgence to finish with their third straight winning record under Beamer, and that starts Saturday at home against the Gators. — Chris Low
Wyoming at Air Force: Week 7 brings us a couple of enormous matchups in the race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl bid. Tulane and Memphis are each 4-1 and 1-0 in AAC play; the winner of Saturday’s game in the Liberty Bowl could tell us who the American front-runner is, and generally “one-loss AAC champion” is a good thing to be.
At the moment, however, Air Force might be at the front of the line. Troy Calhoun’s Falcons are 5-0 and already 3-0 in Mountain West play. They have been held under 39 points only once, and they’re allowing just 12.2 points per game.
On Saturday, however, they face by far their best opponent, a 5-1 Wyoming team that boasts wins over Texas Tech and Fresno State and a loss only at Texas. The Cowboys technically need this one more because they’ve already suffered a blemish, but this one’s huge either way. This weekend will bring quite a bit of clarity to the New Year’s Six race. — Bill Connelly
Whose offensive line makes the difference?
ACC: Duke coach Mike Elko has done a terrific job in transforming the offensive line to a position of strength since his arrival in Durham. This season, the group got even stronger with the additions of transfers Jake Hornibrook (Stanford) and Scott Elliott (Harvard), two veterans with starting experience at their previous schools. The projected starting lineup for their game Saturday against NC State has a combined 162 starts. Duke has allowed only four sacks on the season and ranks in the Top 25 in the country in rushing offense. But this unit will definitely face a test against the Wolfpack, who have 21 sacks this season and have allowed less than 100 yards rushing per game. If QB Riley Leonard (ankle) is unable to play, that could affect what Duke does on the ground — especially if NC State tries to load the box to make Henry Belin IV make some plays. — Adelson
Big Ten: Michigan’s offensive line has won the Joe Moore Award for best offensive line unit the past two seasons. Offensive coordinator and line coach Sherrone Moore had to replace a few players from last season, but the staff went to the transfer portal to fill those needs immediately. Rimington Award winner Olu Oluwatimi left for the NFL, so the coaches brought in Drake Nugent from Stanford, who has started at center this season. They also added tackle Myles Hinton and guard LaDarius Henderson. Michigan’s line has been an important part of the offensive success and has once again been dominating defenses up front. Michigan quarterbacks have been sacked just three times, and the Wolverines’ running backs are averaging 2.36 yards before contact on runs. Running back Blake Corum has an FBS-leading 10 touchdowns, and while Corum has executed those runs, he also has an excellent offensive line to thank for creating holes and blocking up front. — Tom VanHaaren
Big 12: Last season, Texas Tech averaged 3.9 yards per carry and was 111th nationally in sacks allowed at 3.15 per game. The Red Raiders brought in transfer center Rusty Staats, who started 45 games at Western Kentucky, and reshuffled the entire offensive line in the process. This season, they’re averaging 179 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, and running back Tahj Brooks is the first Tech player with four straight 100-yard games in the past 20 years. Kansas State, meanwhile, ranks fourth nationally in run defense, allowing just 2.99 yards per carry and 93.4 yards per game. The Wildcats have given up just three rushing scores all season. How the Texas Tech line holds up will go a long way toward its survival in the conference race. — Dave Wilson
Pac-12:Bo Nix may be the headliner in Eugene as he tries to continue a Heisman-level start to the season, but the work of the Ducks’ offensive line so far cannot be overstated. The unit has allowed only three sacks of Nix all season and only 20 tackles for loss. Washington’s offensive line has protected Michael Penix Jr. in similar fashion, which has allowed him to get off to an equally, if not more, impressive start than Nix. Both offensive lines may be the key to Saturday’s matchup; whoever gives their respective quarterback more time against staunch defensive lines could be the team that emerges with a crucial win. — Paolo Uggetti
SEC: Another year, another solid Georgia offensive line. And this time the Bulldogs are doing it without Warren McClendon and Broderick Jones, who left during the offseason for the NFL. And they’re doing it without starting right tackle Amarius Mims, who has missed the past few weeks after undergoing tightrope surgery to repair a sprained ankle. But the numbers say Dylan Fairchild, Earnest Greene, Tate Ratledge, Xavier Truss and Sedrick Van Pran are doing just fine. Ratledge hasn’t given up a pressure all season. All told, Georgia ranks fourth in the FBS in pressure percentage (20.5%) and sixth in yards before contact (2,069). — Alex Scarborough
Notable quotes
Mario Cristobal: If you’ve been paying attention, you might have heard the Miami coach’s mea culpa regarding the Canes’ agonizing loss to Georgia Tech.
“I made the wrong call. I take full ownership in not taking a knee and giving them the opportunity to have a couple extra plays and preventing us from sealing the win.”
Mark Stoops: Kentucky’s coach made a pitch to fans for donations to fund his team during a weekly radio show, using Georgia, which had just beaten the Wildcats 51-13, as the primary example.
“I can promise you — Georgia, they bought some pretty good players. You’re allowed to these days, and we could use some help. That’s what they look like, you know what I mean, when you have 85 of ’em. I encourage anybody that’s disgruntled to pony up some more.”
Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
There’s no going back now. The College Football Playoff’s expanded 12-team format made its debut last season, reshaping the postseason as we knew it and showing just how brutal the path to a national championship can be. Add in a flurry of conference realignments (with the grueling travel schedules they created), the ever-increasing influence of the transfer portal and what might be the dawn of an entirely new financial model underpinning the sport, and college football could be changing faster — and more dramatically — than at any point in its history.
As part of our efforts to keep track of these seismic changes, we are relaunching our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 season this week. Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.
The preseason forecast features plenty of familiar teams at the top, but also plenty of candidates to crash the playoff party.
Let’s begin our tour of the data by looking at the teams most likely to win the 2025 championship.
The top of the list is dominated by SEC teams — 11 of the top 19 hail from the conference, including the two most likely champions in Texas and Georgia (and three of the top four, if you include Alabama).
A year after Ohio State and the Big Ten won the first 12-team playoff title — with only three SEC squads making the field — the FPI model expects a nation-high 4.6 playoff teams to hail from the SEC (nearly twice as many from any other) with a 61% chance that the conference produces the eventual champion.
If not an SEC team, then the championship will probably go to another familiar power conference program, with a trio of Big Ten teams — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — checking in next on the odds list, a year after each went to the CFP quarterfinals (or beyond). A high share of returning production could also have coach Dabo Swinney and Clemson representing the ACC in the playoff again — perhaps making it past the first round this time.
And if we’re looking for somewhat refreshed entries after down seasons, Auburn, Michigan and Oklahoma are all among the 17 most likely champions after each finished outside the top 25 in the FPI last season. All three made major moves in the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought in a top-10 transfer class headlined by former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold; Michigan brought in a big recruiting class and a few top transfers; and Oklahoma revamped its offensive core, with prized quarterback John Mateer at the helm — plus its returning production otherwise — helping vault the Sooners back into the national picture.
Playoff odds for the Group of 5
The Group of 5 is also an important part of the playoff puzzle, in no small part because of its guaranteed spot in the bracket (reserved for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion). Here are the non-power conference teams with the highest chance to make the playoff in the FPI model.
Even after losing record-setting running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos remain the most likely Group of 5 team to make the playoff — though Tulane (despite losing quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming off an 11-win season, but quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren’t far behind. With several contenders bunched together and no clear juggernaut, the G5 race for a playoff spot is something to keep a close eye on — including its ripple effects on the rest of the bracket.
Next, let’s look at the projected top units on each side of the ball in 2025, according to the FPI.
If we want another illustration of how dominant the best teams are, the top four projected offensive teams by the FPI — Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State — are also the top four projected defensive teams, with Alabama and Texas rising 10 spots apiece from 2024 on the offensive side.
That kind of balance on both sides of the ball is what separates this year’s top contenders from the pack, especially in a postseason format that requires versatility over three or four high-stakes playoff games. The rest of the top 20 on both sides also contain some of the biggest offseason movers in those unit rankings — such as Oregon (up 11 spots on defense), Florida (up 27 spots on offense), Clemson (up 14 spots on defense), South Carolina (up 24 spots on offense) and Texas A&M and Auburn (who are up double-digit spots on both sides).
Biggest risers and fallers
Speaking of those offseason changes, let’s look at the programs that have gained (or lost) the most ground overall in the FPI entering 2025.
FAU is projected to improve by at least 25 ranking slots on offense, defense and special teams after adding quite a few transfers — including ex-Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp — ahead of coach Zach Kittley’s first season in Boca Raton. Among power-conference teams, Florida State is looking to bounce back from last season’s nightmare with the help of a great offseason in the portal, headlined by the addition of former USC wide receiver Duce Robinson, while ACC rival, Stanford, has the nation’s 13th-highest share of production returning for 2025.
At the other end, Army has lost roughly half of its production from last season’s impressive 12-2 team, including top rusher Kanye Udoh and sack leader Elo Modozie; the FPI predicts regression will hit the Knights hard.
And in terms of power teams that had competitive FPI ratings a year ago, Louisville is projected to drop from No. 12 to 41 after bidding farewell to quarterback Tyler Shough, wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, starting offensive tackle Monroe Mills, sack leader Ashton Gillotte and each of its three leading defensive backs in interceptions. Similarly, Colorado sustained heavy offseason losses, and regression might also come for Indiana and Iowa State after a pair of outstanding 11-win seasons.
(Where did the top transfer portal teams land on the most improved list? In addition to FSU and Auburn, Nebraska is up 13 spots to No. 25, Texas Tech rose nine spots to No. 35 and Texas A&M was up seven slots to No. 8. But keep an eye on Ole Miss, which was among the more active portal teams but fell eight spots in the FPI rankings anyway without quarterback Jaxson Dart.)
Best matchups in 2025?
Finally, let’s close by circling the biggest matchups of the 2025 season on our college football calendars. According to the FPI’s projected ratings for both teams, these are the most anticipated games of the season — matchups in which each squad ranks highly, helping to create a high combined matchup quality on ESPN Analytics’ 0-100 scale:
We’ll get one of the best games of the season practically right away, with Week 1 providing Texas-Ohio State — a battle of top-four preseason FPI teams — on Saturday, Aug. 30. That same day, we’ll also get LSU-Clemson, and the next day, we’ll watch Notre Dame travel to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a top-10 FPI matchup.
That sets the tone for a regular season that will feature at least one matchup rated 90 or higher in the FPI matchup quality metric almost every week. But the best week by that metric — with three games rated 90 or higher and five rated 85 or higher — is Week 14, with Ohio State-Michigan, Auburn-Alabama and all of the other usual late-season rivalry games. In addition, three other weeks — Week 5, Week 7 and Week 10 — will carry five games each with a matchup rating of 85 or higher.
That’s a loaded calendar, and it reflects how the meaning of each college football Saturday is changing. Under the old system, one bad week could doom a contender. Now, teams can afford a stumble … but the trade-off is that they also need to prove themselves over more games against top-tier teams.
Regular-season showdowns still matter, too — especially for seeding, byes and home-field advantage. But there’s also more room for redemption, which we saw embodied by both championship game combatant’s last season. And through it all, the FPI gives us a road map to help navigate what’s shaping up to be another wild and transformative season of college football.
Since its inception in 1867, the Belmont Stakes has become one of the most prestigious horse races in the world. The Belmont Stakes takes place five weeks after the Kentucky Derby and three weeks after the Preakness Stakes each year.
Dornoch won the 2024 Belmont Stakes. The 2025 race will take place at the Saratoga Race Course on Saturday. The traditional Belmont Park venue in Elmont, New York, is undergoing a large-scale renovation.
Check out all-time winning horses and jockeys in Belmont Stakes history below.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland allowed two unearned runs over 6⅓ innings. Freeland (1-8) scattered four hits and struck out four for his first victory since a 4-1 win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 8, 2024.
Colorado, which began the series with a major-league-worst 9-50 record, won its third straight for the first time this season. It was the Rockies’ first three-game sweep since they beat the San Diego Padres in May 2024.
Goodman hit a leadoff double against reliever Janson Junk in the sixth, advanced on a flyout and scored on Brenton Doyle‘s sacrifice fly.
Goodman finished 7-for-13, with three homers and five RBIs in the series against Miami.
The Marlins, who lost their fourth straight, got on the board on Heriberto Hernandez‘s run-scoring single and an RBI fielder’s choice by Jesus Sanchez in the seventh.
Quantrill allowed two runs and five hits over five innings. The right-hander walked one and struck out two.