US oil is back, and ExxonMobil’s $60 billion deal isn’t even the biggest signal
Workers connect drill bits and drill collars used to extract oil in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas.
Brittany Sowacke | Bloomberg | Getty Images
After three and a half years, a tripling in the S&P 500 Energy Index, and many soon-to-be-forgotten culture-war volleys, the U.S. Department of Energy announced Oct. 12 that U.S. crude oil production had hit an all-time high of 13.2 million barrels per day, entirely wiping out Covid-era losses of more than 3 million barrels per day.
The news came a day after a $60 billion deal between Exxon Mobil and independent oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources. The combination of recovering production, sustained pressure from Wall Street for cost containment and high stock dividends, and consolidation like the Exxon-Pioneer hookup is not a coincidence.
The energy sector’s big stock move in 2021 and 2022 was mostly a recovery from a disastrous decade for Big Oil, when tens of billions of cash flow were lost on unprofitable fracking wells, and of a consolidation that was good for company profits, dividends and shareholder returns.
The foundation of the 2010s oil business was cracking when Covid broke it, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Ecofin in Kansas City, Mo. Monthly production topped out at 13 million barrels per day in November 2019 and hit 9.9 million by February 2021.
“Capital discipline in the U.S. industry hasn’t gone away, and oil is at $85 to $90 a barrel,” he said.
So, what brought Big Oil back, and what’s next?
Here are seven important factors that played into U.S. oil’s recent history and will influence its future.
Why the shale drilling bust ended
Oil broke gradually and then suddenly. The S&P 500 Energy Index lost 40% of its value between 2014 and 2019. But the pandemic drove the fast part of the bust, in part by leading Wall Street to insist on further cuts in capital spending, Thummel said.
Loading chart…
What brought it back was renewed demand and higher prices.
Recessions end, and oil demand has slowly rebounded after the 2020 downturn and lingering supply-chain shock. And rising prices for WTI crude – which careened during Covid to less than $15 a barrel, shot back to $120 in 2022, and is now near $90 – can make previously-unprofitable plays work, he said.
The U.S. production rebound is more concentrated
Big Oil isn’t back all over America: Production is still down sharply in Oklahoma and North Dakota. It hasn’t changed much in Alaska, where production is in a long-term tailspin. And offshore oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico recovered to 2 million barrels a day, but hasn’t grown.
Instead, the surge is concentrated in the Permian Basin region of Texas and New Mexico, where production costs are among the lowest in the country, said Alexandre Ramos-Peon, head of shale well research at Rystad Energy. Oil from the Permian Basin costs an average of $42 a barrel to produce, he said, with North Dakota in the high $50s to $60.
North Dakota is also hampered by weaker access to pipelines than the Permian Basin, where many producers can use pipelines that lie entirely within Texas, skirting federal regulation of interstate pipelines. That’s only one example of a relaxed regulatory environment in Texas, compared to places like climate-conscious Colorado, the nation’s No. 4 oil producer, where output is still down 3 million barrels per month, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.
“There’s this place called Texas that doesn’t really know what energy regulation is,” he said.
Where oil companies have been spending their money
U.S. oil companies cut capital spending to $106.6 billion last year from $199.7 billion in 2014, according to Statista, contributing to the decline in oil production and arguably delaying the recovery. And they put that money to work paying higher dividends and doing stock buybacks, Thummel said.
According to Energy Department data, oil and gas companies paid out about $75 billion per quarter in the last year. The share of oil-company operating cash flow going to shareholders rose to half of operating cash flow from about 20% in 2019, the department says.
The link between Exxon-Pioneer deal and peak barrels
Offsetting the decline in capital spending is higher productivity per well — while all of the U.S. oil production is back, the closely watched Baker-Hughes rig count is barely half of 2018 levels. The average production per rig of new wells just topped 1,000 barrels a day, up from 668 four years ago, according to the Energy Department. So the industry didn’t have to add a ton of new wells or drill in as many new places to recover fully.
On CNBC last week, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said the company did the merger because it thinks its technology and scale can raise the productivity of Pioneer’s fields.
“Their [Pioneer’s] capabilities, bringing in their Tier 1 acreage, our technology, our development approach, frankly, brings higher recovery at lower cost,” Woods said.
That suggests more mergers to come as rivals like Chevron also make plays to boost their presence in U.S. shale, especially in the Permian Basin, Hatfield said. Chevron already has made several shale-related acquisitions in recent years, including $7.6 billion for PDC Energy this year and $5 billion for Noble Energy in 2020. Independent producers are under more pressure than more-stable super-majors to pay very high dividends to justify the risk of oil-price fluctuations, which will mean tighter constraints on their ability to keep up in technology and scaling of operations, he said.
U.S. crude, energy security and Big Oil economics
As a result of the rebound in crude, is American repatriating its oil? A little, says Hatfield. Permian shale right now is much cheaper to produce than offshore oil, comes with much less political risk than offshore drilling in much of the developing world, and takes much less time to make a profit than offshore wells. That’s leading companies like Exxon to bet more heavily on Permian shale than offshore drilling, he said.
“The super-majors are taking capital out of offshore,” Hatfield said. “They are reducing overseas development because it is more risky.”
The biggest part of the equation is that time equals risk, Ramos-Peon said. Global oil producers aren’t squeamish about investing in parts of the world where governments change, but the years-long investment cycles in offshore drilling make the much shorter turnarounds in Texas appealing to companies like ExxonMobil, which is one of the industry’s biggest offshore players.
“In the Permian, you get your capital back in a little over a year,” Hatfield said. “The return on investment is much faster and much higher because the wells begin to produce so quickly.”
What oil’s recent trading and Israel-Hamas mean for gas prices
Gas prices tend to move in tandem with the price of crude oil, which has dropped to about $88 per barrel from $94 in September, driving a 20-cent per gallon drop in the nationwide average price for regular. But the influence of OPEC, whose coordinated production cuts in June have driven prices up 35 cents, often offsets what domestic producers do, Ramos-Peon said. And right now there is the added uncertainty of whether the Israel-Hamas war will result in a slash in production from Iran, whose government supports the Hamas rebels who launched bloody attacks into Israel, he said.
“I believe crude prices will stay around the current level in the short term, and in the long term should trend down,” he said. “If there are sanctions against Iran, that will be bad for consumers.”
Short-term shale plays, oil consumption and climate change
What’s good for oil companies in the short-term doesn’t change the longer-term trajectory of the oil market or carbon reduction.
Meeting climate goals has more to do with long-term shifts in energy use than with short-term production targets, Ramos-Peon said. Rystad expects U.S. production to rise to 13.6 million barrels per day next year and 13.9 million in 2025, he said. After that, forecasts get more difficult because so much can change, but by late this decade oil consumption should peak before beginning to ebb, he said.
Even as more cars go electric, demand from older cars and uses of oil in chemicals will keep the oil business very large, Ramos-Peon said. And the risk that the business will erode will make drillers focus on shale more than offshore drilling, Hatfield said
“In the context of not knowing for sure, why wouldn’t you want a return on your investment in three years rather than 30?” he said.
Short-term, the biggest threat to the rosy scenario is that oil-industry cash flows are falling sharply from a peak last year. The Energy Department says its survey of 139 producers, foreign and domestic, shows a 36% drop in second-quarter operating cash flows from 2022. Profits are narrowing for the first time in two years, the department said.
Then again, the price of crude has risen $16 a barrel since the end of the second quarter. And in the oil business, price rules everything.
Environment
Trump’s crypto-frenzied inauguration weekend makes first family billions of dollars richer
Snoop Dogg was the lead act at the first-ever Crypto Inaugural Ball held in Washington on Friday evening
MacKenzie Sigalos
As the crypto industry celebrates the arrival of a new administration in Washington, D.C., nobody is taking quicker advantage of the coming changes than the person leading the charge: President Donald J. Trump.
On Friday night, crypto A-listers rubbed elbows with political elites and members of Trump’s inner circle at the Crypto Ball, held at the opulent Mellon Auditorium, just down the street from the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump’s net worth was about to explode from an asset that, up to that point, didn’t exist. The same night of the party, the incoming president launched $TRUMP, a meme coin built on the Solana platform. Its market cap over the weekend climbed past $14 billion. Like with other meme coins, there’s no underlying product. Trump told his followers in a social media post, “It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING!”
The website for $TRUMP says 80% of the coins are held by the Trump Organization and affiliates.
Inside the Crypto Ball were some of the leaders of the platforms allowing ordinary investors to buy into Trump’s newest project. They included Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell.
Trump wasn’t done after one token.
On Sunday came the introduction of $MELANIA, named after the first lady. The coin quickly spiked more than 40%, surpassing $2 billion in value. Both the Trump and Melania coins have dropped significantly from their highs.
Then there’s World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance project endorsed by the Trump family, which hiked its token price from 1.5 cents to 5 cents and released an additional 5 billion tokens for sale. The project, initially launched in September, has raised more than $300 million in total sales so far, according to blockchain firm Arkham Intelligence.
The Trump family gets 75% of World Liberty’s crypto coin revenue, according to the project’s founding document. On-chain data shows millions of dollars worth of token transfers to Coinbase’s institutional custody provider.
“We’re making routine movements of our crypto holdings as part of regular treasury management, payment of fees and expenses, and to address working capital requirements,” World Liberty said in a statement.
CNBC reached out to Donald and Melania Trump earlier Monday and didn’t receive a response.
‘Reign of terror’
In the period of 48 hours, the Trump family’s net worth surged by billions of dollars, based on holdings of its just-launched digital assets, underscoring the unregulated nature of cryptocurrencies and the president’s ability to use his fame, power and newfound partnership with the nascent industry to enrich himself, his family and his allies at the flip of a switch.
Broader market enthusiasm has been expressed in the price of bitcoin, which surged to an all-time high hours before the inauguration to nearly $110,000. Crypto industry leaders and investors emerged as some of Trump’s biggest supporters in the campaign in an effort to influence future policies and to ease the restrictive regulations imposed during the Biden administration. In July, Trump delivered the keynote at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
Digital asset entrepreneurs, politicians, and members of Trump’s inner circle hit the red carpet at the first-ever Crypto Inaugural Ball in Washington on Friday.
MacKenzie Sigalos
“The reign of terror against crypto is over,” David Sacks, a prominent Silicon Valley investor and the new White House AI and crypto czar, told the packed D.C. ballroom on Friday night. His comments were met with applause that echoed beneath the Mellon Auditorium’s soaring columns.
Sacks, an earlier Trump critic who said the events of Jan. 6, 2021, had “disqualified” him from being a candidate at the national level, threw his weight behind Trump last year. He hosted a high-profile fundraiser at his San Francisco mansion in June and regularly promoted the Republican candidate on the popular “All-In” podcast.
“The beginning of innovation in America for crypto has just begun,” Sacks added on Friday.
On X, formerly Twitter, conversations were lighting up about the new $TRUMP coin. There was plenty of skepticism from those in and around the industry.
“Trump needs to fire his crypto advisors, from top to bottom and replace with people who know what they are doing,” wrote Gabor Gurbacs, founder of digital asset firm Pointsville, in a post on X. “The memecoins cost the US, the presidency and his family a lot of credibility and the consequences haven’t even started.”
Mark Cuban, the billionaire former tech entrepreneur and part owner of the Dallas Mavericks, commented on the apparent lawlessness of it all. Cuban, a longtime independent who became a vocal supporter of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, said the coins are particularly harmful to the crypto industry in its effort to prove its legitimacy.
“Hello every scam targeted at everyone and anyone who has no clue about crypto,” he wrote.
But at the pre-inauguration party, Trump’s new coin wasn’t much of a topic. Rather, the chatter centered on the broader implications of Trump’s policies, which promised to dismantle years of regulatory gridlock in the Biden administration.
“Two years ago, everyone thought crypto was dead,” said one attendee who asked not to be named in order to speak candidly on the topic. “A year ago, we were begging for help, and this weekend, we’re on top of the world.”
Crypto firms made substantial contributions to Trump’s inaugural fund, signaling their enthusiasm. Ripple donated $5 million in digital tokens, while Coinbase, Kraken, and Circle each gave $1 million. Online brokerage Robinhood contributed $2 million.
Inside the first-ever Crypto Ball at the Mellon Auditorium in Washington ahead of the Donald Trump Inauguration.
MacKenzie Sigalos
Coinbase and Kraken have both been battling the SEC in court. Robinhood received a Wells Notice in May related to its U.S. crypto business, which is typically one of the final steps before the SEC issues formal charges. Ripple has been in a years-long legal fight with SEC and outgoing Chairman Gary Gensler.
“The question now is, what do we do with this momentum?” said Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty, who attended the Friday night festivities. “How do we take that momentum and move forward to really create the promise that I think this new administration has of making the U.S. the crypto capital of the world?”
Alderoty wants to see a coalition formed to discuss unified policy priorities.
“Ultimately, Congress will own the policy, and we can’t dictate to Congress what the policy should be,” Alderoty said. “It would be great if, ahead of that, in the face of the most crypto-friendly Congress we’ve ever had, there could be some alignment on what the priorities are,” Alderoty said, noting that the industry has splintered in the past when proposals have been introduced.
Inside the Crypto Ball
There was a hefty dose of lawmaker support at the party, all from the Republican side of the aisle. House Speaker Mike Johnson was there, along with Senators Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz and Cynthia Lummis. Former House members French Hill and Patrick McHenry arrived to show their support.
Cleanspark CEO Zach Bradford, who has been meeting with Trump in private roundtables to discuss bitcoin mining, said he spoke with Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick to be Secretary of Commerce, at the event.
“We talked about bitcoin mining and how bitcoin, but also bitcoin mining, can be a central point of commerce,” Bradford told CNBC.
Bradford said he emphasized to Lutnick the potential for bitcoin mining to be a significant economic driver.
“It’s a positive revenue generator from a net production perspective,” Bradford said. “But we’re also contributing significant tax revenues for the states where we operate.”
Bradford said Lutnick is “excited about it,” describing him as “somebody that gets bitcoin.”
Scott Bessent, likely to be the next Treasury secretary, made his way through the main floor of the ballroom and took photos with attendees.
Koh Harada, COO of Aleo, a privacy-focused blockchain, said Bessent was “pretty coy about things, but the fact that he was even there was very interesting.”
Aleo, which has raised over $200 million from investors including SoftBank and Andreessen Horowitz, chose to establish in the U.S. while many rivals opted to launch from offshore jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands as a shield from various regulations.
“We didn’t set up shop in the U.S. on a whim,” Harada said. In talking to a mix of legal and compliance experts, the company realized that “America is the best fertilizer for tech — period,” he said.
Aleo, which combines privacy-focused functionality with smart contract capabilities, has become a go-to resource for other startups looking to return to the U.S., Harada added. The company picked Wyoming, a state known for its crypto-friendly policies.
“Wyoming stood out as the most welcoming state for crypto,” Harada said. “They’ve created forward-thinking policies and are even establishing blockchain research centers at the University of Wyoming.”
It was the side conversations in the MAGA Inc. VIP Reception greenroom where the most significant exchanges of the evening unfolded.
MacKenzie Sigalos
Also in attendance on Friday was MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, wearing his trademark orange bow tie, a nod to bitcoin’s iconic color. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and top execs at Coinbase, including global policy head Faryar Shirzad, mingled with guests.
The Winklevoss twins chatted in a group that included Chris Dixon of Andreessen Horowitz and his colleague, Sriram Krishnan, who recently left his role as a general partner at the firm to join Sacks’ task force. Bo Hines, Trump’s choice to lead the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, was also present. He’ll report directly to Sacks.
While Snoop Dogg performed in the main ballroom, venture capitalist Katie Haun was engrossed in conversation with Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz. Other musical guests Rick Ross and Soulja Boy, who was charged by the SEC in 2023 for illegally promoting a crypto token without disclosing he was paid, kept the larger crowd entertained.
Guests were issued wristbands based on status. Black wristbands signified general admission and gold allowed entry to a VIP balcony. White bands granted the most exclusive perks. General admission cost $2,500, and some sponsors paid $1 million for access to the greenroom on the ground floor tucked behind the stage in the main ballroom.
Tightly guarded by security, Donald Trump Jr. donned custom MAGA buttons on his shirt as he swiftly made his way into the innermost chamber of the VIP section, a room barricaded by a rotating bouncer and only allowing in certain guests. Along with Sacks, and Speaker Johnson, he could be seen conversing with Fred Thiel, CEO of mining company MARA Holdings.
Thiel shared details of a blockchain initiative his company had launched earlier that day with Johnson, an effort designed to symbolize the intersection of crypto and politics.
“We minted a block on the blockchain with a portrait of President Trump, created entirely from transactions,” Thiel said.
Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, with Mara CEO Fred Thiel. Johnson seen texting President Donald Trump a photo of the Trump47 bitcoin block minted by Mara earlier that day.
Fred Thiel
The so-called Trump47 block embedded Trump’s headshot into the Bitcoin blockchain, creating a lasting digital tribute to the president.
“We released it Friday morning, and it went viral,” Thiel said. He added that Johnson “was so impressed” that he texted Trump a picture of it.
Tracy Hoyos-López, a former California prosecutor and one of the people credited with turning Trump pro-bitcoin, was also at the event.
“Don’t mess with crypto,” Hoyos-López, who helped to plan the evening’s celebration, told CNBC while Snoop Dogg was performing his live set. “Our event is a symbol of who we are in the world.”
WATCH: Bitcoin surges past $100,000
Environment
Hyundai launches new Creta Electric SUV in India, starting at just $20,000: Meet the new EV
Hyundai officially launched its newest electric vehicle, the Creta Electric, in India. It starts at just over $20,000 and has a range of nearly 300 miles. The Creta EV is Hyundai’s first electric SUV made in the country. Here’s a look at the new model.
Hyundai reveals Creta EV prices start at $20,000
Since it hit the market in 2015, the Hyundai Creta has been a massive success for the company in India. The SUV led Hyundai India to another record sales year, with 186,919 models sold in 2024.
Hyundai sold a record 605,433 vehicles in India last year, up from 602,111 in 2023. Including exports, Hyundai India sold 764,119 vehicles in 2024.
“Achieving highest ever domestic sales three years in a row, reflects customers’ preference for brand Hyundai as their trusted smart mobility solutions provider,” Hyundai India’s COO, Mr Tarun Garg, said earlier this month.
The Creta was the company’s main growth driver, accounting for over 30% of sales. With its highest yearly sales since launching, “CRETA continued to strengthen HMIL’s position as an SUV leader, helping HMIL accomplish its highest-ever domestic SUV contribution of 67.6% in CY 2024,” he added.
Now, Hyundai’s top-selling SUV in India is going electric. Earlier this month, Hyundai unveiled the electric SUV for the first time. On Friday, at the Bharat Mobility Global Expo, Hyundai launched the Creta EV, which starts at just Rs 17.99 Lakh, or just over $20,000.
It’s available in four trims: Executive, Smart, Premium, and Excellence. The most expensive Excellence trim starts at Rs 23.50 lakh, or about $27,200. In comparison, the gas-powered SUV starts at around $12,800 (Rs 10.99 LAkh).
Buyers can choose from two battery packs, 42 kWh and 51.4 kWh, offering a driving range of 390 km (242 miles) and 473 km (294 miles) in India.
Hyundai is confident that the Creta EV “will further expand the appeal of this Undisputed, Ultimate SUV,” Mr Tarun Garg said.
Hyundai plans to launch five new EVs in India by 2030, including the new Creta. To meet the growing demand in the region, it’s also planning to launch three-wheel electric cars.
Although Hyundai is not launching the Creta EV in the US, the company is introducing a series of new and upgraded electric models this year. The 2025 IONIQ 5 now features more driving range and comes with an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers. Meanwhile, Hyundai’s first three-row electric SUV, the EV9, will arrive shortly.
Would you buy the Hyundai Creta EV for around $20,000? Let us know in the comments below.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway