US oil is back, and ExxonMobil’s $60 billion deal isn’t even the biggest signal
Workers connect drill bits and drill collars used to extract oil in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas.
Brittany Sowacke | Bloomberg | Getty Images
After three and a half years, a tripling in the S&P 500 Energy Index, and many soon-to-be-forgotten culture-war volleys, the U.S. Department of Energy announced Oct. 12 that U.S. crude oil production had hit an all-time high of 13.2 million barrels per day, entirely wiping out Covid-era losses of more than 3 million barrels per day.
The news came a day after a $60 billion deal between Exxon Mobil and independent oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources. The combination of recovering production, sustained pressure from Wall Street for cost containment and high stock dividends, and consolidation like the Exxon-Pioneer hookup is not a coincidence.
The energy sector’s big stock move in 2021 and 2022 was mostly a recovery from a disastrous decade for Big Oil, when tens of billions of cash flow were lost on unprofitable fracking wells, and of a consolidation that was good for company profits, dividends and shareholder returns.
The foundation of the 2010s oil business was cracking when Covid broke it, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Ecofin in Kansas City, Mo. Monthly production topped out at 13 million barrels per day in November 2019 and hit 9.9 million by February 2021.
“Capital discipline in the U.S. industry hasn’t gone away, and oil is at $85 to $90 a barrel,” he said.
So, what brought Big Oil back, and what’s next?
Here are seven important factors that played into U.S. oil’s recent history and will influence its future.
Why the shale drilling bust ended
Oil broke gradually and then suddenly. The S&P 500 Energy Index lost 40% of its value between 2014 and 2019. But the pandemic drove the fast part of the bust, in part by leading Wall Street to insist on further cuts in capital spending, Thummel said.
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What brought it back was renewed demand and higher prices.
Recessions end, and oil demand has slowly rebounded after the 2020 downturn and lingering supply-chain shock. And rising prices for WTI crude – which careened during Covid to less than $15 a barrel, shot back to $120 in 2022, and is now near $90 – can make previously-unprofitable plays work, he said.
The U.S. production rebound is more concentrated
Big Oil isn’t back all over America: Production is still down sharply in Oklahoma and North Dakota. It hasn’t changed much in Alaska, where production is in a long-term tailspin. And offshore oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico recovered to 2 million barrels a day, but hasn’t grown.
Instead, the surge is concentrated in the Permian Basin region of Texas and New Mexico, where production costs are among the lowest in the country, said Alexandre Ramos-Peon, head of shale well research at Rystad Energy. Oil from the Permian Basin costs an average of $42 a barrel to produce, he said, with North Dakota in the high $50s to $60.
North Dakota is also hampered by weaker access to pipelines than the Permian Basin, where many producers can use pipelines that lie entirely within Texas, skirting federal regulation of interstate pipelines. That’s only one example of a relaxed regulatory environment in Texas, compared to places like climate-conscious Colorado, the nation’s No. 4 oil producer, where output is still down 3 million barrels per month, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.
“There’s this place called Texas that doesn’t really know what energy regulation is,” he said.
Where oil companies have been spending their money
U.S. oil companies cut capital spending to $106.6 billion last year from $199.7 billion in 2014, according to Statista, contributing to the decline in oil production and arguably delaying the recovery. And they put that money to work paying higher dividends and doing stock buybacks, Thummel said.
According to Energy Department data, oil and gas companies paid out about $75 billion per quarter in the last year. The share of oil-company operating cash flow going to shareholders rose to half of operating cash flow from about 20% in 2019, the department says.
The link between Exxon-Pioneer deal and peak barrels
Offsetting the decline in capital spending is higher productivity per well — while all of the U.S. oil production is back, the closely watched Baker-Hughes rig count is barely half of 2018 levels. The average production per rig of new wells just topped 1,000 barrels a day, up from 668 four years ago, according to the Energy Department. So the industry didn’t have to add a ton of new wells or drill in as many new places to recover fully.
On CNBC last week, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said the company did the merger because it thinks its technology and scale can raise the productivity of Pioneer’s fields.
“Their [Pioneer’s] capabilities, bringing in their Tier 1 acreage, our technology, our development approach, frankly, brings higher recovery at lower cost,” Woods said.
That suggests more mergers to come as rivals like Chevron also make plays to boost their presence in U.S. shale, especially in the Permian Basin, Hatfield said. Chevron already has made several shale-related acquisitions in recent years, including $7.6 billion for PDC Energy this year and $5 billion for Noble Energy in 2020. Independent producers are under more pressure than more-stable super-majors to pay very high dividends to justify the risk of oil-price fluctuations, which will mean tighter constraints on their ability to keep up in technology and scaling of operations, he said.
U.S. crude, energy security and Big Oil economics
As a result of the rebound in crude, is American repatriating its oil? A little, says Hatfield. Permian shale right now is much cheaper to produce than offshore oil, comes with much less political risk than offshore drilling in much of the developing world, and takes much less time to make a profit than offshore wells. That’s leading companies like Exxon to bet more heavily on Permian shale than offshore drilling, he said.
“The super-majors are taking capital out of offshore,” Hatfield said. “They are reducing overseas development because it is more risky.”
The biggest part of the equation is that time equals risk, Ramos-Peon said. Global oil producers aren’t squeamish about investing in parts of the world where governments change, but the years-long investment cycles in offshore drilling make the much shorter turnarounds in Texas appealing to companies like ExxonMobil, which is one of the industry’s biggest offshore players.
“In the Permian, you get your capital back in a little over a year,” Hatfield said. “The return on investment is much faster and much higher because the wells begin to produce so quickly.”
What oil’s recent trading and Israel-Hamas mean for gas prices
Gas prices tend to move in tandem with the price of crude oil, which has dropped to about $88 per barrel from $94 in September, driving a 20-cent per gallon drop in the nationwide average price for regular. But the influence of OPEC, whose coordinated production cuts in June have driven prices up 35 cents, often offsets what domestic producers do, Ramos-Peon said. And right now there is the added uncertainty of whether the Israel-Hamas war will result in a slash in production from Iran, whose government supports the Hamas rebels who launched bloody attacks into Israel, he said.
“I believe crude prices will stay around the current level in the short term, and in the long term should trend down,” he said. “If there are sanctions against Iran, that will be bad for consumers.”
Short-term shale plays, oil consumption and climate change
What’s good for oil companies in the short-term doesn’t change the longer-term trajectory of the oil market or carbon reduction.
Meeting climate goals has more to do with long-term shifts in energy use than with short-term production targets, Ramos-Peon said. Rystad expects U.S. production to rise to 13.6 million barrels per day next year and 13.9 million in 2025, he said. After that, forecasts get more difficult because so much can change, but by late this decade oil consumption should peak before beginning to ebb, he said.
Even as more cars go electric, demand from older cars and uses of oil in chemicals will keep the oil business very large, Ramos-Peon said. And the risk that the business will erode will make drillers focus on shale more than offshore drilling, Hatfield said
“In the context of not knowing for sure, why wouldn’t you want a return on your investment in three years rather than 30?” he said.
Short-term, the biggest threat to the rosy scenario is that oil-industry cash flows are falling sharply from a peak last year. The Energy Department says its survey of 139 producers, foreign and domestic, shows a 36% drop in second-quarter operating cash flows from 2022. Profits are narrowing for the first time in two years, the department said.
Then again, the price of crude has risen $16 a barrel since the end of the second quarter. And in the oil business, price rules everything.
LiveWire, the electric motorcycle brand spun out of Harley-Davidson, has just given us a closer look than ever at its upcoming lower-cost, smaller-format electric motorcycles ahead of their larger unveiling at the Milan Motorcycle Show (EICMA) next week.
While we got our first glimpse of the new machines earlier this summer, spotting a street and trail version of the smaller electric motorbikes, now we have a name for the models and a few more details.
Officially called the S4 Honcho, the new model will be a 125-cc equivalent that will be available in both a street-legal version capable of being operated by riders who possess a moped/light motorcycle license in Europe or a motorcycle license in the US, and a license-free off-road version.
“The S4 Honcho Street will qualify for A1 licenses in Europe and the UK and M-endorsement in the U.S., offering lightweight, urban-friendly electric mobility with intuitive performance and removable batteries,” explained the company.
The bikes appear to be powered by a centrally-mounted, chain-driving electric motor and a pair of removable batteries accessed by flipping up the seat.
LiveWire has remained fairly tight-lipped regarding the major tech specs for the bikes, as well as the price, but we do get a look at the dual removable batteries thanks to a new image posted to the company’s website.
There, we can see what appears suspiciously similar to a pair of KYMCO Ionex batteries, which would make sense given LiveWire’s close partnership with the Taiwanese scooter giant.
A couple years ago at EICMA I had the chance to check out KYMCO’s new Ionex batteries and e-scooter platform firsthand, which you can see in the video below.
While excitement has been building for LiveWire’s smaller electric motorcycles, the full unveiling of the bikes’ performance figures as well as the price tag will prove critical for gauging whether or not the mini-bikes could be a major turning point for LiveWire’s elusive profitability.
But the company isn’t betting it all on one horse, or one Honcho. Also in attendance at the show will be LiveWire’s full-scale concept of an electric maxiscooter built on the same S2 architecture that powers the company’s currently best-selling models, the S2 Del Mar, S2 Mulholland, and S2 Alpinista.
That scooter, built in partnership with KYMCO, will leverage the company’s fully developed S2 platform to create a more comfortable, high-performance urban and suburban-oriented model.
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Tesla is talking about finally bringing the next-generation Roadster to production in new job listing.
However, you shouldn’t hold your breath.
The prototype for the next-generation Tesla Roadster was unveiled in 2017 and was supposed to enter production in 2020, but it has been delayed each year since then.
It has become a running gag in the Tesla community and an example of CEO Elon Musk’s tendency to stretch the truth about timelines.
Since missing its original 2020 production timeline, Musk has given six updated production timelines for the new electric supercar, and each has been wrong.
The latest timeline hasn’t even been about producing the vehicle. It has been about the unveiling of a new version of the next-generation as the last prototype of what is supposed to be a “next-gen” car was unveiled almost a decade ago.
Musk has been talking about an unveiling and demonstration of the New Roadster by the end of the year.
This week, Tesla has posted a new job listing for a ‘Manufacturing Engineer, Roadster‘. In the job description, Tesla mentions working on battery manufacturing equipment for the Roadster:
Tesla is looking to hire a Manufacturing Engineer to contribute to the concept development and launch of battery manufacturing equipment for our cutting-edge Roadster vehicle. In this role you will take large scale manufacturing systems for new battery products and architectures from the early concept development stage through equipment launch, optimization and handover to local operations teams. Battery development is at the heart of our company, and this is an exciting opportunity to work directly on the central challenges for the all-new Roadster product architecture while still in its early development stages.
The comment does point to Tesla starting to set up manufacturing for the production of the new Roadster.
Since this does sound like early manufacturing development work, it would be optimistic to hope to see new Roadsters rolling off the production line by the end of next year. More likely to be in 2027.
In its updated annual installed production capacity chart, Tesla listed Roadster production as still being in the “design development” phase as of last week:
The location of Roadster production is also listed as “to be determined.”
The new job listing for a manufacturing engineer on the Roadster program mentions being based in Fremont, which could mean Tesla plans to launch production at its California factory.
Tesla next-gen Roadster
As unveiled in 2017, the new Roadster was supposed to get 620 miles (1,000 km) of range and accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds.
It was listed for $200,000, and a “Founder Series” was also offered for $250,000.
At the time, Tesla used the Roadster as a prize for its referral program when it badly needed to generate sales. A few dozen Tesla owners referred enough new sales to win one or two free new Roadsters each.
Some have suspected that Tesla didn’t want to bring the vehicle to production because it would have to deliver over 30 of them for free and hundreds more at heavy discounts due to its original referral program.
Others believe that updates to the vehicles have led to delays.
Shortly after the unveiling of the next-gen Roadster in 2017, Musk discussed adding cold-air thrusters to the supercar to deliver unprecedented racing performance and possibly even allow it to hover over the ground.
The CEO referenced demonstrating that the “Roadster can fly” on several occasions in the last few years.
Electrek’s Take
It looks like we are talking about the Roadster possibly coming to market in 2027—maybe late 2026 at the earliest.
That’s roughly 10 years after it was unveiled.
I’ll believe it when I see it. And if it does happen, I might have one or two flying Roasters for sale.
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Just like it says on the tine: TV brand SHARP is following Sony into the automotive space with the new LDK+ concept that transforms into a mobile movie theater. It’s a type of concept we’ve seen before – but not like this!
The SHARP LDK+ promises to be a Living room, a Dining room, and a Kitchen on wheels – and more (the plus, obviously), building off the decidedly more blobular™ concept first shown back in 2024. This updated version, however, takes the LDK concept and brings it significantly closer to reality by basing it on Foxconn’s “Model A EV by Hon Hai Technology Group” chassis.
And, now that it’s a little bit closer to some kind of reality, it might be time to climb on the SHARP hype train and take a minute to genuinely enjoy the movie/gaming environment the company is promising to deliver with the LDK+ concept.
Get hyped, kids
Not to be overly crude here, but if you roll in a van with a sliding projector table, opaque windows, and fully reclining seats, you probably hit the “family planning” section of your local Walgreens on a regular basis. Similarly, as more and more young people find themselves struggling to afford their own space, offering a vehicle that delivers a little privacy. And even if that’s more Netflix than chill, I think it’s bound to find a few buyers.
Whether I’m right or wrong about that will remain to be seen for a while, however. The official press release is light on specs, offering the following description of the LDK+ concept …
The second iteration of “LDK+” retains the original concept while featuring both high maneuverability with its compact body and a spacious, relaxing interior. Developed based on the“Model A” EV by Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn), this compact minivan model offers an expansive cabin layout.
When parked, the vehicle can be used as a theater room or a remote workspace. A console box equipped with a table and projector is placed between the driver’s and passenger’s seats. By swiveling the driver’s seat to face backward, it creates a living room-like atmosphere where you can sit around with the rear seats. Pulling down the screen installed above the rear seats allows you to enjoy movies or conduct online meetings on a large display. Through Sharp’s AIoT platform, which connects AI and home appliances, the vehicle links with household devices such as kitchen appliances, air conditioning, and laundry systems. The AI learns residents’ lifestyles and preferences, creating personalized new ways of living. In addition, the system can connect with V2H (Vehicle to Home) solutions, enabling efficient energy management by integrating solar power generation and residential storage batteries.
SHARP
… but skipping automotive basics like battery capacity, anticipated driving range, and the usual horsepower and torque figures. Pricing and, perhaps most importantly, when the vehicle might see the light of day weren’t revealed, either.
SHARP LDK+ concept
All of which is to say: they’re probably never going to actually build something like this – and that’s too bad, because a new-age Honda Element/Nissan Cube-style boxy little EV would absolutely sell like hotcakes.
SOURCE | IMAGES: SHARP, The Japan News.
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