Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.
An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.
In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.
Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.
Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”
He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.
“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”
Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.
Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.
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The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.
Image: The leader of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.
But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.
Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.
Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.
Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.
However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.
As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.
Who is Donald Tusk?
The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.
In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.
He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.
He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.
In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.
He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.
Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.
He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.
His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”
Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.
Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy
The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.
After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.
That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.
At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.
He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.
Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.
Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.
For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.
Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.
Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.
There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.
And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.
PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.
Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.
And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.
If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.
President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.
Venezuela has accused the US of “piracy” after an oil tanker was seized off the country’s coast.
Donald Trump announced the operation had taken place during a meeting of business leaders at the White House, telling reporters: “We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large, largest one ever seized, actually.”
Attorney General Pam Bondi shared a video of the operation, revealing the FBI, Homeland Security, US Coast Guard, and Department of Defence were involved.
She said the US forces “executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran”.
Venezuela’s government said the seizure “constitutes a blatant theft and an act of international piracy.”
Image: Pics: X/@AGPamBondi
Ms Bondi said the seized vessel – believed to be a tanker named Skipper – has been sanctioned by the US for many years “due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations”.
She did not name the vessel, what flag it sailed under, or exactly where the incident took place.
UK maritime risk management group Vanguard said that the tanker Skipper – which the US sanctioned for alleged involvement in Iranian oil trading under the name Adisa – was believed to be the target.
Trump offers ominous commentary
Without giving additional information on the operation, Mr Trump added during the White House meeting that “other things are happening”.
Later, Mr Trump said the tanker was “seized for a very good reason”, and when asked what will happen to the oil on board, he added: “Well, we keep it, I suppose.”
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US seizing oil tanker a ‘significant escalation’
How did we get here?
It marks another escalation from the US after months of pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The White House accuses Mr Maduro of presiding over a narcotrafficking operation in Venezuela, which he denies.
The US has escalated military deployments against the Latin American country over the last few months, with the president suggesting American forces could launch a land attack.
Speaking to Politico on Tuesday, Mr Trump declined to comment on whether US troops would enter Venezuela, but warned Mr Maduro’s “days are numbered”.
US interception of oil tanker raises more questions about international law
The seizing of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela is a significant escalation in US tactics.
By targeting an oil shipment, rather than a suspected drug boat, Washington has signalled its willingness to disrupt exports.
President Trump seems determined to shut down one of the last major sources of funding for Nicholas Maduro’s embattled government.
Nine months ago, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all goods imported into the US from any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela.
This is even more aggressive and will be viewed in Caracas as a direct threat to the country’s economy and sovereignty.
The interception of the tanker raises more questions about international maritime law and the reach of US enforcement powers.
In the space of four months, the US has bombed 23 boats, killing 87 people, accusing the occupants of being “narco-terrorists”.
It will also fuel speculation that airstrikes are imminent, President Trump having posted two weeks ago that he had closed the airspace.
Venezuela: ‘It has always been about our oil’
The Maduro government describes America’s actions as a grab for Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are among the biggest in the world.
At a rally before a ruling-party-organised demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, Mr Maduro did not address the seizure but told supporters Venezuela is “prepared to break the teeth of the North American empire if necessary”.
Flanked by senior officials, he said that only the ruling party can “guarantee peace, stability, and the harmonious development of Venezuela, South America and the Caribbean”.
His government did issue a statement, accusing the US of “piracy” and “imperial abuses”.
Of the US campaign, it said: “It has always been about our natural resources, our oil, our energy, the resources that belong exclusively to the Venezuelan people.”
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Are US strikes on Venezuela about drugs or oil?
Is military confrontation possible?
Geoffrey Corn, director of the Centre for Military Law at Texas Tech University, told Sky’s Mark Austin on The World that Mr Trump’s remarks on land strikes “ostensibly” refer to drug cartel members.
Formerly a senior adviser to the US army on warfare law, Mr Corn added: “That could very easily provide the pretext for some confrontation between Venezuelan armed forces and US armed forces.
“And then that would open the door to a broader campaign to basically negate the power of the Venezuelan military.”
Tributes have been paid to a British soldier killed in Ukraine, as the country’s allies prepare for talks before a crucial potential meeting with Donald Trump.
Lance Corporal George Hooley, 28, has been named as the paratrooper who died in a “tragic accident” on Tuesday while observing Ukrainian forces testing a new defensive capability away from the frontline.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said he joined the army in November 2015 and was “an exceptional soldier”.
Defence Secretary John Healey said he “served our country with distinction and professionalism” and “will be very deeply missed”.
He added: “George’s tragic death reminds us of the courage and commitment with which our outstanding armed forces serve every day to protect our nation.”
Coalition of the willing to meet
Britain has been one of Ukraine’s biggest backers since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, and that support will again come into play on Thursday.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will hold a virtual meeting with members of the self-styled coalition of the willing, after reports Kyiv has handed its revised peace deal proposal to US negotiators.
Mr Zelenskyy said the revised proposal has 20 points, after some “obvious anti-Ukrainian points were removed”.
The original US draft proposal had 28 points, and was seen as favouring Russia.
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Trump could ‘pull plug’ on Ukraine
Zelenskyy hopeful of progress
Ukraine has sought to change some key clauses, such as territorial issues and security guarantees, following talks with US and European negotiators.
In his nightly address on Wednesday, Mr Zelenskyy said his country is also drafting two additional documents: the first regarding US security guarantees and the second on the economy and reconstruction.
He said Kyiv’s peace delegation held a “productive conversation” with the US earlier, and “discussed key issues for recovery, various mechanisms, and visions of reconstruction”.
He also revealed he discussed the possibility of holding elections with Ukraine’s parliament, but that holding elections under martial law was not easy.
Trump has ‘strong words’ with European leaders
It comes after Donald Trump used an interview with Politico to accuse Mr Zelenskyy of “using war” to avoid holding elections. The US president also claimed his Ukrainian counterpart had not read the original 28-point peace plan.
Mr Trump held a call with coalition of the willing members Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, ad Friedrich Merz on Wednesday, and said some “pretty strong words” were exchanged.
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Why is Trump attacking European allies?
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Mr Trump said Mr Zelenskyy was keen on a meeting involving him and European leaders this weekend, but warned his attendance will be “based on what they come back with”.
Today’s virtual meeting comes days after Sir Keir hosted Mr Zelenskyy, Mr Macron and Mr Merz in Downing Street.
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Zelenskyy meets leaders in Downing Street
The period of intense diplomacy comes as the fighting continues on the ground in Ukraine.
Its military says it’s still fending off a Russian assault launched on the key city of Pokrovsk, while energy infrastructure has been targeted by drones in southern Odesa.
The Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado didn’t make it to Oslo in time to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in person, in an extraordinary day shrouded in uncertainty over her whereabouts.
Machado isn’t the first Nobel Laureate unable to attend, but her journey to Oslo was unprecedented in the history of the prestigious prize.
Her departure from Venezuela, carried out amid heavy secrecy and probably with covert US help, was fraught with risk, but on Wednesday she was en route to Norway, where she is expected to land late in the evening.
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Sister’s ‘mixed emotions’ over Nobel prize
Image: Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro joins supporters marching to commemorate the Battle of Santa Ines. Pic: Reuters
Reports suggested she first travelled by boat to the Caribbean island of Curaçao before getting a private flight via the US. Two US F-16 jets were tracked in the skies close to Curaçao late Tuesday night.
In a phone call with members of the Nobel Institute, released just after she took off, Machado said she was “very sad” not to make it in person but “as soon as I arrive, I will be able to embrace all my family and children.”
In her absence, her daughter Ana Corina Sosa Machado, whom she hasn’t seen for almost two years, collected the award in Oslo City Hall and delivered the speech her mother wrote.
She spoke about 2,500 people who had been “kidnapped, disappeared or tortured” under Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro’sgovernment and slammed the corruption that has brought Venezuela, once one of the world’s richest nations, to its knees.
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“This prize carries profound meaning; it reminds the world that democracy is essential to peace.
“More than anything, what we Venezuelans can offer the world is the lesson forged through this long and difficult journey – that to have democracy, we must be willing to fight for freedom.”
Image: Maria Corina Machado addresses supporters at an anti-Maduro protest in January. File pic: AP
Image: Corina Perez de Machado, mother of Maria Corina Machado, at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo. Pic: Reuters
To a standing ovation from an audience that included several South American leaders, Machado thanked the people of Norway and sent a message to her fellow countrymen and women, many of whom had travelled to Oslo from their homes outside Venezuela.
“Venezuela will breathe again,” her daughter read.
“We will open prison doors and watch thousands who were unjustly detained step into the warm sun, embraced at last by those who never stopped fighting for them.
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Are US strikes on Venezuela about drugs or oil?
“We will see our grandmothers settle children on their laps to tell them stories not of distant forefathers but of their own parents’ courage.
“We will hug again. Fall in love again. Hear our streets fill with laughter and music. All the simple joys the world takes for granted will be ours.”
Ms Machado is the leader of a grassroots political movement fighting for democracy in Venezuela.
She was banned by Nicolas Maduro from running for election, so she rallied a campaign behind a little-known veteran diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez.
She organised and trained more than a million volunteers to monitor elections in 2024 and collect data.
Those results, smuggled out of the country, were verified by independent experts and confirmed a landslide win for Gonzalez and Machado’s party.
Maduro refused to recognise the result and detained thousands of opponents.
Protests have failed to dislodge him, although US president Donald Trump has stationed a massive naval force off the coast and has warned the Venezuelan leader his “days are numbered”.
Mr Trump had lobbied publicly to win this year’s Nobel Prize himself, but rang Machado to congratulate her. Some members of Trump’s administration had threatened the Nobel committee if he didn’t win.
Edmundo Gonzalez, who was at the ceremony in Oslo, has since gone into exile in Spain, but Machado has remained in Venezuela, spending most of her time in hiding.
Her mother, sister and children have also travelled to Oslo to be reunited with her.
The decision to travel to Norway is fraught with risk.
Having successfully left the country, she faces a dangerous journey home again.