Tesla (TSLA) Q3 earnings preview: tough quarter
Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q3 2023 financial results on Wednesday, October 18, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll take a look at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q3 2023 deliveries
As usual, Tesla already disclosed its Q3 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drive the vast majority of the company’s revenue.
Earlier this month, Tesla confirmed that it delivered just over 435,000 electric vehicles during the third quarter of the year.
It’s the first time in a long time that Tesla didn’t break a delivery record.
Tesla also produced fewer vehicles at just over 430,000 units.
The automaker had warned about a lower quarter in terms of deliveries and production due to planned factory shutdowns for upgrades.
Delivery and production numbers are always slightly adjusted during earning results.
Tesla Q3 2023 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers.
However, this year has been more difficult due to constant price cuts – making it harder to track Tesla’s revenue.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $24.256 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a higher revenue of $24.420 billion.
Unsurprisingly, this would be significantly down from the nearly $25 billion in revenue Tesla delivered last quarter, but it is still a massive year-over-year increase from the $21.5 billion Tesla delivered during the same quarter last year.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla Q3 2023 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last two years now.
However, like revenues, it has been harder to estimate earnings this year with price cuts digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2023, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.73 per share, while Estimize’s prediction is higher with a profit of $0.78 per share.
But as you can see below, the range of Wall Street is quite broad as analysts are unsure what to expect.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
Amid declining prices to keep demand up, most shareholders are mostly concerned about Tesla’s ability to retain a high gross margin despite the lower prices.
It’s likely that Tesla will try to reassure shareholders on that front on Wednesday.
There’s been a growing effort among shareholders to convince Tesla to invest in advertising rather than cut prices. We have seen Tesla dip its toes in that lately. It would be interesting to see if Tesla can release some results of that effort and discuss the potential for a ramp-up.
During the conference call following the release of its earning results, Tesla takes crowdsourced questions from shareholders. Here are the top-voted ones right that are likely to be answered by management:
- How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?
- Can you provide a progress update on the 4680 Cell. Particularly progress towards performance improvements and cost savings outlined on battery day. Thank you!
- When do you expect Model 3 Highland to be available in the US?
- Could you please provide an update on (i) capacity expansion plans for the company’s factories in Berlin and Austin and (ii) the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico?
- Why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robotaxi is expected so soon?
In general, between the price drop and the lower deliveries, it should be a fairly top quarter for Tesla. However, the automaker has also lowered inventory during the quarter, which could make things more interesting.
We will see.
You can join us live on Electrek on Wednesday evening for intensive coverage of Tesla’s Q3 2023 financial results starting at around 4 p.m. ET for the results and through the evening for news coming out of the conference call and results.
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Oil pumpjacks operate at Daqing Oilfield at sunset on November 18, 2024 in Daqing, Heilongjiang Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Energy supermajors are being forced to confront some tough choices in a weaker crude price environment, with generous shareholder payouts expected to come under serious pressure over the coming months.
U.S. and European oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and BP, have moved to cut jobs and reduce costs of late, as they look to tighten their belts amid an industry downturn.
It reflects a stark change in mood from just a few years ago.
In 2022, the West’s five biggest oil companies raked in combined profits of nearly $200 billion when fossil fuel prices soared following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Flush with cash, the likes of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies sought to use what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described as their “monster profits” to reward shareholders with higher dividends and share buybacks.
Indeed, the amount of cash returns as a percentage of cash flow from operations (CFFO) has climbed to as much as 50% for several energy companies in recent quarters, according to Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.
It’s better to cut buybacks than dividends: For investors, buybacks are gravy, but dividends are the meat.
Clark Williams-Derry
Energy finance analyst at IEEFA
In today’s environment of weaker crude prices, however, Carulli said this policy risks taking on new levels of debt beyond what could be considered a “healthy” balance sheet.
BP and, more recently, TotalEnergies have announced plans to take steps to reduce shareholder returns.
Quilter Cheviot’s Carulli described this as a “sensible change in direction,” noting that other oil majors will likely follow suit.
Thomas Watters, managing director and sector lead for oil and gas at S&P Global Ratings, echoed this sentiment.
Oil refinery at sunrise: an aerial view of industrial power and energy production.
Chunyip Wong | E+ | Getty Images
“Oil companies are under pressure as crude prices soften, with the potential for prices to fall into the $50 range next year as OPEC continues to release surplus capacity and global inventories build,” Watters told CNBC by email.
“Faced with the challenge of sustaining these returns in a lower-price environment, many will look to reduce costs and capital spending where they can,” he added.
Dividend cuts ‘would send shivers through Wall Street’
Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a non-profit organization, said trimming the share buybacks is likely Big Oil’s easiest option.
“Over the past few years, oil companies have used buybacks to return cash to investors and prop up share prices. And it’s better to cut buybacks than dividends: For investors, buybacks are gravy, but dividends are the meat,” Williams-Derry told CNBC by email.
“A cut in a dividend would send shivers through Wall Street,” Williams-Derry said.
Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer Saudi Aramco did just that earlier in the year, slashing the world’s biggest dividend amid an uncertain outlook for oil prices.
Brent crude futures year-to-date.
IEEFA’s Williams-Derry linked the move to a steady weakening of the Saudi Aramco’s share price through most of this year, noting that other private oil majors will want to avoid the same fate.
Ultimately, Williams-Derry said oil majors likely have three questions to consider now that the Ukraine boom in oil prices has faded.
“Do they keep taking on new debt to fund their shareholder payouts? Do they slash buybacks, eliminating one of the major factors propping up share prices? Or do they cut back on drilling, signaling weaker production in the future?” Williams-Derry said.
“There are risks to each choice, and no matter what they choose they’re bound to make some investors unhappy,” he added.
Big Oil outlook
For some, Big Oil’s current state of play is not nearly as bad as it might have been.
“It perhaps hasn’t been as gloomy as people expected earlier in the year, because you’ve had this narrative, really since the announcement of Trump’s tariffs back in April, that the oil market was meant to go into a glut and a period of oversupply later in the year,” Peter Low, co-head of energy research at Rothschild & Co Redburn, told CNBC by video call.
“What’s actually surprised people is how resilient oil prices have been because they have stayed in that $65 to $70 a barrel range, more or less,” he added.
Oil prices have since slipped below this range.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.4% lower at $64.97 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with November expiry dipped 0.3% to trade at $61.24.
“The question, probably less for 3Q and perhaps more for 4Q, is really to what extent distributions and buybacks in particular might need to be to cut to reflect a weaker commodity price environment,” Low said.
“I think given that 3Q was OK, they will probably wait to see what happens in the coming weeks and months and 4Q would be a more natural point for them to revisit shareholder distributions,” he added.
TotalEnergies and Britain’s Shell are both scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 30, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron set to follow suit on Oct. 31. BP is poised to report its quarterly results on Nov. 4.
A new whitepaper by heavy truck makers PACCAR and Dragonfly Energy that incorporates real-world fleet trial data and Environmental Chamber Testing conducted at the PACCAR Technical Center seems to indicate that over-the-road truck drivers are ready to embrace battery power and reduce emissions – just not while they’re driving.
The whitepaper, titled Reducing Idle Time & Fuel Costs: Lithium Powered Solutions for Commercial Fleets, looked at different ways to reduce harmful diesel emissions across the duty cycles of a number of different fleet operations, and what they found was that powering a truck’s auxiliary and cabin systems with a high-voltage lithium-ion battery dramatically reduced engine idle time even under worst-case operating scenarios.
Another report by a group called the Clean Air Task Force showed that idling heavy-duty diesel engines while drivers are “hoteling” in their trucks (they’re parked, but running the engine to power the sleeper cab’s climate controls, kitchens, or electronics) exacts a heavy toll on both drivers and shipping fleets.
Idling not only burns fuel and increases operating costs at 0 MPG, it also emits a dangerous cocktail of harmul pollutants that pose direct health risks to drivers, rest stop employees, and nearby communities. Diesel exhaust contains fine particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), and numerous airborne toxins that are known carcinogens, making them a serious problem even to those who think climate change is a global conspiracy from “Big Science” to keep those plucky young oil billionaires in the place.
From a mechanical standpoint, extended idling also accelerates engine wear, degrades emission-control systems, increases maintenance, and shortens engine life.
Battle Born semi batteries
By adding a relatively high capacity hybrid battery (like Dragonfly Energy’s Battle Born brand batteries) to the something like a PACCAR Kenworth T680 (at top), drivers can stay parked for several hours, operating their sleepers’ refrigerators, ACs, or heaters without the noise and emissions and costs of diesel – and they probably sleep better too, without the drone of neighboring diesels cranking on around them all night.
“We believe idle reduction remains one of the most immediate and cost-effective ways fleets can reduce fuel consumption and emissions while improving driver comfort. But just as important, the industry is increasingly focused on operational efficiency and maximizing asset utilization,” explains Wade Seaburg, chief commercial officer at Dragonfly Energy. “We believe our collaboration with PACCAR not only validates the performance of our LiFePO₄-powered solutions, but also highlights how they help fleets maximize uptime, extend equipment life and get more out of their assets.”
The electrification of the auxiliary systems also reduces engine hours, stretching out the time between scheduled maintenance and reducing operational downtime.
In other words, the hybridization of OTR trucks is a win-win-win. The full whitepaper is available for download at BattleBornBatteries.com/Lithium-Powered-Idle-Reduction. Take a look at it yourself, then let us know what you think of the idea in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: PACCAR, Dragonfly Energy; via AP Newswire.
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French car brand Renault believes they’ve got the key to more affordable EV batteries, and their new LFP tech promises to slash the costs of production by 40%. The result? New, desirable EVs with a sub-20K price tag that aren’t made in China.
Spanish news site Motorpasión is reporting that Renault, like Ford, is embracing a more affordable lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries that are safer, cheaper, and less dependent on rare mineral mining than conventional li-ion batteries.
That’s a big change from the recent past. Because they’re less energy dense and weigh a bit more than comparably-sized lithium-ion NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) batteries, European automakers looked down on LFPs. But with Chinese automakers like BYD, MG, and Leapmotor flooding Europe with affordable LFP-powered EVs, that stigma is fading fast.
Fun, affordable LFP vehicles
The stability, battery life, and cost advantages of LFP have become too compelling to ignore — especially as global lithium and nickel prices continue to fluctuate, making long-term business projections difficult. Renault’s decision to embrace LFPs then, is less about catching up on the Chinese’ technology than it is about catching up catching up on the Chinese’ economics, and acknowledging that affordability is the real barrier to mass adoption.
That was the thinking behind Renault’s relaunch of the R5 E-TECH (sold as the Le Car in the US) and the announcement that a new Twingo would be coming soon.
It was also the thinking behind the French carmaker’s decision to launch the new Ampere vehicle software development sub-brand back in 2023. At the time, the stated goals were to improve (what are now called) Renault’s software-defined vehicles and, separately, to reduce manufacturing costs of new EVs by 40% – which, if you’ll notice, is just about what the switch to LFP chemistries will enable them to do.
“Creating a new model of company specializing in electric vehicles and software running as of today: How better to illustrate our revolution and the boldness of our teams?” asked Luca de Meo, Renault Group CEO, at Ampere’s launch. He answered his own question, saying, “Instill a sustainable corporate vision and ensure it is reflected in each and every process and product. Build on the Group’s strengths and review the way we do everything. Form a tight-knit team and work for the collective. Harness our French roots and become the leader in Europe. Assert our commitment to our customers, our planet and those living on it.”
Renault is set to launch an all-new, all-electric version of its iconic Twingo minicar from the 1990s in the next few months (at top). The car is targeted straight at the BYD Dolphin and is expected to have a starting price of about €17,000 (just under $20,000 US).
SOURCE: Motorpasión; images via Renault.
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