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Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.

The resignation of two Tory MPs have triggered by-elections this Thursday in Tamworth, Staffordshire and Mid Bedfordshire, with the party fighting hard to hold on to both.

Party officials say the delay over Nadine Dorries quitting the Commons has caused “enormous discontent”.

There is little concrete data to go on, with constituency polling unreliable and the political parties often only able to see what is going on with their own data.

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Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.

The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.

Labour is likely to say that this leaked memo is simply expectation management. Sources have previously said it was a “moonshot” to win both seats.

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Dorries launches attack on PM

The memo analyses the changing vote, and acknowledges that in both seats the “retention rate” – the ability to ensure Tory voters in 2019 vote Tory again on Thursday – is “low.

The only comfort cited in the memo is that in Mid Bedfordshire, only 5% of Tories are switching all the way to Labour – while in Tamworth this figure is 8%.

“The vast majority of ‘defectors’ say they’re unlikely to vote rather than vote for an opposition candidate,” it says.

The memo also suggests the party is preparing to blame Ms Dorries and Mr Pincher personally in the event they lose either seat.

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The memo says: “We’ve always known the cause of these by-elections – i.e. MPs associated with our party’s challenges last year standing down who are personally associated with negative news stories – would hinder our performance, as was the case in Selby and Somerton & Frome.

“The data and doorstep feedback proves this to be the case.

“Many former Conservative voters say they like Festus Akinbusoye once they find out about his record as PCC [police and crime commissioner] and his determination to do an effective job as their local MP – many voters still raise Nadine Dorries and her record on the doorstep unprompted.

“As was found to be the case in the post-election research carried out after the Selby & Ainsty by-election regarding Nigel Adams, many voters clearly associate Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher with the party’s difficulties of last year.”

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There is more anger directed at Ms Dorries than Mr Pincher, the memo suggests.

“But more impactfully in Mid Beds, voters’ dissatisfaction with Nadine Dorries’ decision to delay her resignation has created enormous discontent with the party more generally,” it adds.

“Despite positive views towards both Festus and the prime minister, many voters are still telling canvassers and callers they’re determined to use their ‘abstention’ as a tool to express this discontent with both the politics of last year and Nadine Dorries personally.

“Likewise doorstep feedback suggests our candidate in Tamworth is regarded favourably due to his local record and personal back-story. However, is this sufficient to significantly alter the likely result.”

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More than 500 people arrested after Palestine Action protest – with almost half aged 60 and above

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More than 500 people arrested after Palestine Action protest - with almost half aged 60 and above

The number of people arrested after a protest in London on Saturday supporting banned group Palestine Action has risen to 532, police have said.

Around half of them (259) were aged 60 and above – including almost 100 people who were in their 70s.

Some 522 arrests were for displaying a placard in support of a proscribed organisation contrary to Section 13 of the Terrorism Act 2000, according to the Metropolitan Police.

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As of 9pm on Saturday, the number was put at 466.

Membership of, or support for, Palestine Action is a criminal offence punishable by up to 14 years in prison under the Terrorism Act.

A rally supporting Palestine Action in Parliament Square. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A rally supporting Palestine Action in Parliament Square. Pic: Reuters

One of the arrests took place as the Palestine Coalition march formed in Russell Square, while 521 were at the protest in Parliament Square.

Of those arrested, the biggest number (147) was in the 60-69 age group, while 97 people were aged between 70 and 79, and 15 others were between 80-89.

Six were aged 17-19, sixty-five were in the 20-29 age group, 55 were aged 30-39, 45 were aged 40-49 and 89 were in the 50-59 age group.

The average age of those arrested was 54, while some 263 of those arrested were male, 261 were female and eight either defined themselves as non-binary or did not disclose their gender.

Among the arrests, six were for assaults on officers (none were seriously injured), one was for “obstructing a constable in the execution of his/her duty”, two were for breaching Section 14 Public Order Act conditions, and one was for a racially aggravated public order offence.

People attend the protest in central London. Pic: PA
Image:
People attend the protest in central London. Pic: PA

Hundreds of people attended Saturday’s demonstration in Parliament Square, organised by Defend Our Juries, with the Metropolitan Police warning it would arrest anyone expressing support for Palestine Action.

Anyone who was arrested as part of the operation was taken to one of two prisoner processing points in the Westminster area.

Those whose details could be confirmed were released on bail to appear at a police station at a future date. They were given conditions not to attend future demonstrations related to Palestine Action.

Those who refused to provide their details at the prisoner processing points and those who were found to have been arrested while already on bail, were taken to one of a number of Met Police custody suites.

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Charity Amnesty International described the mass arrests under UK terrorism law as “deeply concerning”.

The crowd, sat on the grass inside Parliament Square, could be seen writing “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action” on white placards at 1pm, with the vast majority remaining silent.

Meanwhile on Sunday, hundreds of people joined a march on Downing Street to urge the release of those being held in Gaza by Palestinian militant group Hamas.

A scuffle broke out after at least two men shouted “Free Palestine” in front of the march.

One man was seen being bundled to the ground close to Trafalgar Square after being surrounded by around a dozen people.

Another man was seen being moved away by police officers after he began shouting.

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Four members of UK family die in crash on holiday in Portugal

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Four members of UK family die in crash on holiday in Portugal

Four members of a UK family have died in a car crash while they were on holiday in Portugal.

Domingos Serrano, 55, Maria Serrano, 51, and their twin sons Domingos and Afonso, both 20, died when the car they were travelling in collided with another vehicle in Castro Verde, southern Portugal, according to the Municipal Council for Mourao.

Two others died in the crash – the 19-year-old girlfriend of one of the sons, and the 26-year-old driver of the other car, its statement added.

The Serrano family were living in Thetford, Norwich, but were not British nationals, Sky News understands.

They were travelling from Faro to Mourao for their “usual and deserved vacation”, according to the Mourao authorities, who declared two days of mourning.

In a statement, they said: “In the car there were four occupants, of Mouranese nature, and a young woman with affinity to the family.

“Residents in England, follow from Faro to Mourão, for the usual and deserved vacation.

“It is with great regret that the Municipality announces this information, offering its condolences to the families and friends of the victims.”

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‘Massive void’

Thetford Town Youth Football Club paid tribute to the family in a Facebook post, confirming the twins played for the team.

“Thetford Town Football Club would like to pass on our sincere condolences to the Serrano family and the local Portuguese community after the recent tragedy while on holiday,” it read.

“Afonso and [Domingos] were both an integral part of our U18’s team in recent years, both brothers sadly passed away in Portugal with their parents and friends in a tragic car accident.

“The loss of this lovely family will leave a massive void in the local community.”

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Amnesty International ‘deeply concerned’ as 474 arrests made at Palestine Action protest

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Amnesty International 'deeply concerned' as 474 arrests made at Palestine Action protest

Amnesty International says it is “deeply concerning” that police made 474 arrests during a Palestine Action demonstration in London.

Metropolitan Police said 466 were detained under the Terrorism Act for showing support for a banned group.

Eight more people were arrested for other offences, including five for assaulting officers.

The Met said it was the most arrests it’s made related to a single operation in at least the past decade.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Organiser of the event, Defend Our Juries, earlier said up to 700 people were at the event in Parliament Square and claimed police were preparing for the “largest mass arrest in their history”.

The group said those arrested included former Guantanamo Bay detainee Moazzam Begg, NHS workers, quakers and a blind wheelchair user.

Amnesty International UK’s chief executive Sacha Deshmukh said in a statement: “The protesters in Parliament Square were not inciting violence and it is entirely disproportionate to the point of absurdity to be treating them as terrorists.

“Instead of criminalising peaceful demonstrators, the government should be focusing on taking immediate and unequivocal action to put a stop to Israel’s genocide and ending any risk of UK complicity in it.”

The Met said a “significant number of people” at the event were seen “displaying placards expressing support for Palestine Action”.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The right to protest is one we protect fiercely but this is very different from displaying support for this one specific and narrow, proscribed organisation.

“Palestine Action was proscribed based on strong security advice following serious attacks the group has committed, involving violence, significant injuries and extensive criminal damage.”

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Palestine Action supporters arrested at protest

Police said those arrested had been taken to processing points in Westminster and any whose details could be confirmed were bailed on condition they didn’t attend further Palestine Action support events.

Others whose details could not be verified, possibly because they refused to give them, were taken to custody suites across London.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

The protests have put a strain on authorities’ capacity to cope.

Sky News understands senior leaders in the prison service, known as “Capacity Gold”, met today to discuss how to deal with the large number of arrests as the male prison estate is close to full.

It’s understood 800 inmates were moved out of the busiest jails in and around London beforehand.

In a statement, the Metropolitan Police Federation said: “Thinking of our colleagues and wishing all assaulted officers well. Remember there are no ‘extra’ police officers – just the same ones having their days off cancelled, having to work longer shifts and being moved from other areas. Officers are emotionally and physically exhausted.”

‘We felt compelled to speak out’

The first of the arrests began just before 1pm, when a man waving a placard that read “I support Palestine Action” was stopped by police, writes Gurpreet Narwan, reporting from Parliament Square.

Officers told him he was showing support for a terrorist organisation, searched him and ushered him away.

The action soon escalated. Among the people arrested today were a number of elderly people, a blind man in a wheelchair, and a teenager.

They were protesting peacefully, with a number of people pointedly seating themselves below statues of Mahatma Gandhi and the suffragette Millicent Fawcett.

They told Sky News that they were fully expecting to be arrested but that they felt compelled to speak out and defend the right to protest.

One protester said: “I don’t think I’m a criminal. That’s not the person I am.”

However, he said he was being guided by his faith and his conscience.

Things calmed down after a few hours but there was a heavy police presence well into the afternoon and early evening.

Read more: What does proscribing a group mean?

Legislation to ban Palestine Action came into force on 5 July, making it a criminal offence to show support for the organisation, carrying a prison sentence of up to 14 years.

Defend Our Juries said earlier this week the protest would still go ahead, following several similar demonstrations since it was outlawed last month.

On Saturday, a spokesperson said: “Palestine Action and people holding cardboard signs present no danger to the public at large.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Human rights advocates Amnesty International described the arrests of so many people under UK terrorism law as “deeply concerning”.

Another march organised by the Palestine Coalition, which is a separate group, set off from Russell Square and assembled on Whitehall.

The Met Police said one person had been arrested there for showing a placard in support of Palestine Action.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Earlier this week, three people charged as a result of illegal Palestine Action activity were named.

Jeremy Shippam, 71, of West Sussex, Judit Murray, also 71, of Surrey, and Fiona Maclean, 53, of Hackney in east London, will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 16 September.

The ban on Palestine Action faces a legal challenge in November after the High Court granted a full judicial review to Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori.

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