Last month’s inflation data release completely changed the outlook for Britain’s economic policy.
The number came in far below what economists had expected, prompting the Bank of England to pause its rises in interest rates, with wider implications for the state of the British economy.
This month’s inflation release – covering the rise in prices in the year to September – is much less earth-shaking.
The consumer price index rate of inflation was unchanged at 6.7%. This was slightly higher than economists had expected (6.6%) but not by enough to change their impressions about where we’re heading.
And that pathway is as follows: inflation continuing to fall in the coming months, enabling the government to claim victory in its quest to halve the CPI rate by the end of the year, dropping down to around 2% towards the end of next year.
The problem, however, is that these forecasts have been so disastrously wrong in the past that no one is entirely sure how accurate they are. Certainly, thanks to the fall in the energy price cap, prices are no longer rising as fast as they were last year.
But the impact of the cost of living crisis is still being felt widely.
Households are facing a perilous squeeze both from higher prices and from rising interest rates, as well as higher taxes.
Indeed, there’s a feedback loop between prices and taxes, because the personal allowance – that amount of your pay that isn’t taxed – is currently frozen, meaning extra rises in prices and earnings push families into higher tax brackets.
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The other question remaining about today’s inflation data is how consequential it will be.
Normally, September’s rate is used to update benefits payments for the following year.
But the government has yet to confirm whether it will do so this year.
The leader of Britain’s trade unions has urged Labour to fight Reform UK by hitting millionaires, banks and gambling with higher taxes.
Paul Nowak, general secretary of the TUC, has published an opinion poll of 5,000 adults.
He says the results suggest a significant number of Labour voters are leaning to Reform.
His call comes ahead of the TUC’s annual conference starting in Brighton this weekend, when the high-tax policy is expected to be overwhelmingly approved.
“I’ve seen first-hand the experience of the wealth tax, the solidarity tax in Spain and it raised billions of euros,” Mr Nowak said in a pre-conference interview with Sky News.
“It didn’t lead to an exodus of millionaires or wealthy people from Spain and Spain now has one of the fastest growing economies in the OECD. So I think it’s a good example of a wealth tax in action.
On the TUC’s poll, carried out on 15-19 August, Mr Nowak said 74% of 2024 Labour voters who are now “leaning to Reform” backed wealth, gambling, and bank taxes.
This was also true for 84% of 2024 Conservative to Labour switchers.
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1:07
Is the UK heading into a full-blown financial crisis?
‘A clear dividing line’
“We polled the public on a 2% wealth tax on those with assets of more than £10m,” Mr Nowak said. “Most people would recognise, if you’ve got £10m in assets, you could probably afford to pay a little bit more in tax.
“This is a clear dividing line between the government and Reform, showing you are on the side of working people.
“We know some [union] members voted for Reform at the last general election and clearly Reform was the biggest party at the local elections and union members would have been among those who cast their vote for Reform.
Image: Keir Starmer has had a challenging first year as prime minister. Pic: PA
“My job isn’t to tell trade union members which way they should vote or not. What we want to do is expose the gap between what Nigel Farage says and what he does.
“He says he stands up for working people and then votes against rights for millions of working people when it’s introduced in parliament.
“He says he stands up for British industry and supports Donald Trump and his destructive tariffs. And he talks about tax cuts for the rich when we know that we need those with the broader shoulders to pay their fair share.”
Fashion giant Shein has opened an investigation after a shirt was advertised on its site, modelled by a man bearing a striking resemblance to Luigi Mangione, who is accused of murdering a US healthcare chief executive.
The image with Mangione’slikeness, wearing a white, short-sleeved shirt, has since been taken down.
Shein, one of the world’s biggest fast fashion retailers, told Sky News: “The image in question was provided by a third-party vendor and was removed immediately upon discovery.
“We have stringent standards for all listings on our platform. We are conducting a thorough investigation, strengthening our monitoring processes, and will take appropriate action against the vendor in line with our policies.”
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The listing was taken down on Wednesday afternoon, according to reports.
As news of the image spread across social media on Tuesday, and ‘Luigi Mangione Shein’ reportedly began trending, many speculated that the picture had been created by AI or photo-shopped.
Some supporters of Mangione accused Shein of using his likeness, while his critics have also described using the photo as a new low.
More on Luigi Mangione
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Mangione, 27, is facing trial for fatally shooting UnitedHealth’s insurance CEO, Brian Thompson, outside a New York City hotel in December.
Image: UnitedHealthcare chief executive officer Brian Thompson.
Pic: UnitedHealth Group/AP
Mr Thompson, 50, was shot dead as he walked to a Manhattan hotel where the company, the largest private health insurance firm in the US, was hosting an investor conference.
Mangione denies the state and federal charges against him, including first-degree murder “in furtherance of an act of terrorism”, two counts of second-degree murder, two counts of stalking and a firearms offence.
Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty if he is convicted, saying Mangione targeted Mr Thompson and that he “presents a future danger because he expressed an intent to target an entire industry, and rally political and social opposition to that industry, by engaging in an act of lethal violence”.
After the killing, Mangione was portrayed as a folk hero by some of those opposed to the US healthcare system.
Rallies took place outside court during his appearances and some supporters pledged funds to his defence.
Shein, founded in China in 2012, has built its global reputation on inexpensive, fast-moving fashion trends that attract Gen Z and younger millennials. Its products are shipped to more than 100 countries.
In January, a senior company lawyer was unable to say if the company sells products containing cotton from Xinjiang, the region of China where it’s alleged members of the Uyghur ethnic group are forced to work against their will, accusations China denies.
There is “considerably more doubt” over when future interest rate cuts can take place, the governor of the Bank of England has said.
Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs that the risks around inflation had gone up and he was “more concerned” about weakness in the labour market.
Bank staff projections expect the main consumer prices index measure of inflation to rise to 4% this year – double the 2% target rate – from its current level of 3.8%. Food prices are proving the main driver currently, with part of the increases blamed on government tax rises on employers.
On the prospects for further interest rate reductions this year, Mr Bailey said: “There is now considerably more doubt about when and exactly how quickly we can make those further steps.”
Interest rates are elevated to help ease the pace of price growth and cut, when able, to help maintain inflation at the 2% target level.
The governor was speaking after the Bank’s split vote last month that resulted in a quarter point reduction for Bank rate to 4%.
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At that time, the governor said that while he still believed that the future path for borrowing costs was still downwards gradually over time, financial markets had since understood that the outlook for the pace of cuts was more murky.
“That’s the message I wanted to get across”, he told the Treasury select committee.
“Now, I think actually, judging by what’s happened, certainly to market pricing since then, I think that message has been understood.”
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2:25
Inflation up: the bad and ‘good’ news
A further quarter point cut to 3.75% is no longer fully priced in for this year, according to LSEG data on market expectations.
He was speaking as financial markets continued to see a widespread sell-off of long-dated bonds, largely over fears of rising government debt levels in many western economies including the US and UK.
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6:30
Why did UK debt just get more expensive?
The activity has taken the yield – the effective interest rate demanded by investors – in 30-year gilts to a 27-year high this week. Other shorter dated bonds have also risen sharply.
But Mr Bailey urged less of an emphasis on the long-term gilts, as headlines point out that any increase in the cost of servicing government debt is a headache chancellor Rachel Reeves can well do without as she battles to balance the books.
He told the MPs: “It’s important not to … over focus on the 30-year bond rate. Of course, it’s a number that gets quoted a lot, it’s quite a high number. It is actually not a number that is being used for funding at all at the moment.”
Mr Bailey also waded into the continuing row across the Atlantic that sees the independence of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, threatened by Donald Trump and his quest for interest rate cuts.
He has moved to fire a Fed governor over alleged mortgage fraud and make a new appointment but Lisa Cook, who was appointed to the board by Joe Biden, is fighting his bid to oust her in the courts.
“This is a very serious situation”, Mr Bailey said.
“I am very concerned. The Federal Reserve… has built up a very strong reputation for independence and for its decision making,”, adding that trading central bank independence against other government decisions would be a “very dangerous road to go down”.