A Siemens Gamesa blade factory on the banks of the River Humber in Hull, England on October 11, 2021.
PAUL ELLIS | AFP | Getty Images
As the biggest players in wind energy gear up to report quarterly earnings, supply-chain reliability issues are front and center for both stock analysts and industry leaders.
It sparked concerns about wider problems across the industry and thrust Europe’s wind energy giants’ earnings into the spotlight.
Siemens Energy is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Nov. 15. Its shares are currently down more than 35% year-to-date.
Aside from the turbine problems, the German energy giant posted orders of around 14.9 billion euros ($15.7 billion) for its third quarter, a more-than 50% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by large orders at Siemens Gamesa and Grid Technologies. Yet the 2.2 billion euro charge due to Gamesa’s quality issues prompted Siemens Energy to forecast a net loss for the fiscal year of 4.5 billion euros.
Ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux suggested in a research note Tuesday that despite having already warned on profits, the company “remains vulnerable to large negative cashflow swings in the next fiscal year.”
“We expect Siemens Gamesa to suffer very weak order intake in H1, which will combine with extensive delivery delays and rising customer penalty payments. Challenges at Siemens Gamesa will continue to overshadow resilience in the group’s other divisions,” they added.
Morgan Stanley cut its price target for Siemens Energy from 20 euros per share to 18 euros per share, but retains an overweight long-term strategic position on the company’s stock.
“Valuation for Siemens Energy is currently factoring in a negative value for the Gamesa division, which we believe may have been over penalized,” Morgan Stanley capital goods analyst Ben Uglow said in a research note Monday.
“While we acknowledge the low visibility on Gamesa margin trajectory and that rebuilding investor confidence will take time, we remain Overweight on undemanding valuation and good fundamentals of the Gas & Grid businesses.”
Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank earlier this week slashed its 12-month share price forecast for Danish wind energy producer Ørsted by 36% ahead of its interim earnings report on Nov. 1. The stock has already halved in value so far this year.
Deutsche had previously highlighted challenges in the wind turbine industry including supplier delays, lower tax credits and rising rates. However, Ørsted’s share price tanked further earlier this year when it raised the possibility of a 2.1-billion-euro impairment charge in its U.S. offshore wind portfolio.
Meanwhile, Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas — despite continuing to bag significant orders — has seen its shares plunge by around 30% year-to-date as reliability concerns plague the wider industry. Vestas publishes its interim financial report for the third quarter on Nov. 8.
Supply chain worries
ONYX Insight, which monitors wind turbines and tracks over 14,000 across 30 countries, revealed in a report Tuesday that supply chains remain the greatest challenge to the sector, with reliability not far behind.
The analytics firm, which is owned by British energy giant BP, interviewed senior personnel at over 40 owners and operators of wind turbines around the world in order to gauge the mood of industry leaders, and found that 57% cited the supply chain as the main obstacle to their operations.
ONYX Chief Commercial Officer Ashley Crowther said the lingering impacts of Covid-19 on manufacturing had just begun to heal — and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent surge in inflation hit.
“Survey participants are now citing delays on new projects due to longer lead times for supply of new turbines and significant price increases,” Crowther said in the report.
“This is in line with what OEMs have told their investors, for example Vestas noting in their 2022 annual report they ‘increased our average selling prices of our wind energy solutions by 29%’. Similarly for major components, particularly main bearings on newer turbines with large rotor diameters, long delays are leaving turbines offline for extended periods.”
Although supply chain issues are creating problems for operators, the most direct impact has been on OEMs like Siemens Gamesa and Vestas, Crowther noted, as has been evident in recent financial results.
“Major western OEMs have recently reported losses or profit warnings and announced major restructuring projects in order to address the challenges they are facing. Some are even re-thinking their approach to the aftermarket which was always seen as the most profitable part of the business,” he added.
Reliability issues
Those surveyed by ONYX also expressed reliability concerns, with 69% expecting more reliability issues due to aging assets and 56% seeing problems associated with new turbine technology. Just 22% expected fewer reliability issues due to new turbine technology improvements.
“As the sector matures, turbines are getting older and the failure rate of electromechanical systems are increasing with age,” Crowther noted.
“Likewise, the initial operating period of newer turbines are seeing a rash of failures due to shorter development cycles, new turbine designs, and a squeeze on turbine prices. This is resulting in machines that are not durable enough.”
During an initial boom in the wind industry a number of years ago, OEMs faced huge market demand and, in turn, created a variety of turbine designs delivered on short cycles to a customer base seeking to generate more energy with greater efficiency at lower cost, Crowther explained.
“Fast-forward to the present and between the perfect storm of supply chain issues and too many turbine designs to support, OEMs have been losing significant amounts of money, including those paid out in liquidated damages (LDs),” he said.
“Manufacturers have been locked into a price competition spiral, attempting to produce larger turbines for more competitive pricing. But with bigger turbines produced in shorter production cycles, it’s no surprise that manufacturing quality has diminished.”
The all-electric Cadillac LYRIQ was an Electrek favorite when it first made its debut two years ago. Now, LYRIQ buyers who have been waiting for a deal can score more than $10,500 in discounts on the Ultium-based Caddy.
Our own Seth Weintraub said that GM had come in, “a year early and dollar long at $60K” when he first drove the Ultium-based Cadillac LYRIQ back in 2022. He called the SUV “a stunner,” too, heaping praise on the LYRIQ’s styling inside and out before adding that the EV’s ride quality really impressed on long journeys.
Well, if the first mainstream electric Cadillac was a winner at its original, $57,195 starting price (rounded up to $60K for easy math), what could we call it at $10,500 less?
That’s a question that’s suddenly worth asking, thanks to huge GM discounts on the LYRIQ that prompted the automotive pricing analysts at CarsDirect to name the 2024 LYRIQ one of the industry’s “Best New Car Deals” this month:
A slew of incentives can enable you to save big on a 2024 Cadillac LYRIQ. First, EVs eligible for the federal tax credit qualify for $7,500 in Ultium Promise Bonus Cash from GM. Additionally, competing EV owners can score $3,000 in conquest cash.
With more than 100 kWh of battery capacity and 300-plus miles of real-world driving range (plus available 190 kW charging capability) the Cadillac LYRIQ ticks all the boxes – but you don’t have to take just my word for that.
A global shortage of qualified operators is impacting job sites everywhere, precisely at a time when demand for housing, mineral mining, and renewable energy construction is going from peak to peak. That’s why companies from Caterpillar to Tesla to Einride are pushing to advance autonomy the way they are.
First revealed as a concept in 2021, Volvo CE’s CX01 autonomous “single drum” asphalt roller concept has seen continuous development in the years since. Making its Volvo Days debut, the CX01 has shed the original single drum design for a “split drum,” with each half being controlled by an internalized, independent electric motor.
The CX01’s electric motors not only help to propel and steer the roller, they also vibrate the drums individually, using some trick software calibration to effectively “cancel each other out,” delivering all the benefits of vibrating drum rollers without the noise.
It’s so smart, you guys
It’s also worth noting that the CX01 is something of an “extended range” EV, instead of a “pure” BEV. That’s because it uses a small, 1.4L diesel engine to spin a generator that powers not batteries, but capacitors (those blue things, above right). Those capacitors can be charged on grid power (or from an accompanying TC13 trench compactor), but they’re much better than batteries at releasing energy really quickly, enabling the diesel to operate at its maximum efficiency while maintaining extremely precise, high-torque movement from the motors.
Volvo CE engineers envision a team CX01 rollers units deployed on larger job sites that could work together and communicate with other pieces of equipment on the site. The connected equipment could help survey the job site, report on the conditions of the mat (density, temperature, and passes), and leverage AI to determine when and where to compact without the need for human operators.
All of which is great, sure – but they had me at “giant OneWheel.”
Volvo TA15 autonomous electric haul truck
Volvo TA15 autonomous haul truck; photo by the author.
Part of Volvo CE’ “TARA” line of autonomous products, the “production ready” TA15 autonomous electric haul trucks are already part of a number of pilot programs on Volvo customer job sites. Being autonomous, they’re ideally suited to performing repetitive routes, dozens of times per day, without exposing human operators to fatigue or injury.
“TARA enables you to downsize and replace larger diesel-powered vehicles with a fleet of autonomous electric Volvo TA15s capable of running 24/7,” reads the official TARA release. “This not only helps you cut emissions and increase productivity, it will also help you rightsize your machinery and optimize your hauling routes.”
And that brings us to the real topic at hand: sustainability.
Electrek’s Take
Volvo SD110 single drum roller, via Volvo CE.
As we’ve often discussed on The Heavy Equipment Podcast, there are two types of sustainability, and both are important. The first is the “classic” version of sustainability, in that our choices need to sustain the planet and environment we live in. The second is sustainability of the business – the ability to keep doing business in a way that ensures the survival of the business, itself.
Looking at the conventional Volvo SD110 conventional roller, above, you can see the incredible amount of materials – of steel, rubber, plastic, glass, etc. – that simply isn’t needed to produce the CX01 roller we started this article with.
All that added mass has a massive hidden carbon cost. The cost of getting those materials out of the ground, the need for bigger, heavier roads to support the weight of the machine, and the bigger, burlier trucks and trailers needed to transport it. Heck, even the operator’s commute to and from the job site adds to the carbon cost of the SD110, over and above the harmful emissions from its diesel engine’s exhaust stack.
The CX01? It’s objectively more sustainable than the SD110 roller in every way, and does pretty much the same job.
Following successful inbound implementations in the Pacific Northwest, North Carolina, and Mexico, Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) is expanding the reach of its electric semi fleet into Arizona with long-time associate JB Hunt.
JB Hunt will add the new Freightliner eCascadia electric semi to its Arizona fleet immediately, and put it to work delivering aftermarket truck parts from DTNA’s parts distribution center (PDC) in Phoenix to multiple DTNA dealers along a dedicated route.
The electric Freightliner truck is expected to cover approximately 100 miles in a given day before heading “home” to a Detroit eFill charger installed at Daimler’s Phoenix facility.
“This solution with DTNA is a great example of our commitment to supporting customers’ efforts to reduce their carbon footprint and work towards energy transition,” explains Greer Woodruff, executive vice president of safety, sustainability and maintenance at JB Hunt. “JB Hunt owns and operates several eCascadias on behalf of customers, and our drivers have really enjoyed their in-cab experience. As customer interest continues to grow, we are here to enable their pursuit for a more sustainable supply chain in the most economic means possible.”
Daimler is analyzing future expansion opportunities throughout its internal parts distribution and logistics with an eye on electrifing additional routes and further reducing the carbon footprint of its logistics operations.