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A surprise double by-election win for Labour that overturns records, sees two of the safest Tory seats in the country turn red and the Tory vote cut in half. Whatever Conservative ministers say, this matters. 

The Tamworth by-election defeat is the second biggest Tory to Labour swing since 1945, and setting a record by overturning the 66% Tory majority at the last election. To put it another way, no governing party has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.

Mid Bedfordshire, which some Tories hoped would remain in their hands at the start of the evening, went red because of – rather than in spite of – the Liberal Democrats.

Follow live: Terrible night for Tories as Starmer says Labour is ‘redrawing the political map’

What could have been a low point for tactical voting ended with Lib Dems claiming partial credit for Labour taking control of Nadine Dorries’s seat, to the gnashing of Labour teeth.

While true that by-elections are no automatic proxy for general elections, hearing a parade of Tory frontbenchers hiding behind this epithet doesn’t hide the fact that these results point to a comprehensive defeat for their party.

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‘Looking at exceptional swings’

If the 20 percentage-point swings to Labour seen in four recent by-elections were repeated in a national poll next year – an admittedly imperfect but nevertheless useful proxy – that would mean a comfortable Labour majority for Sir Keir Starmer.

Tory MPs with 10,000 and 15,000 majorities – which would usually be considered safe – now will be worrying whether they have a sufficient buffer to withstand any Labour tidal wave. Jitters divide parties at a time when they need to be united.

Yet the message from the government is that the response to this by-election is to carry on with the existing plan.

Maria Caufield, a Tory frontbencher, suggested that Rishi Sunak should be credited for having previously already shown an appetite for change – albeit that was revealed at a chaotic Tory conference and appears to have failed to move the dial with voters in this by-election.

She also played down the big Tory to Labour swings as “statistical”. It is true the number of Labour votes received in Mid Beds was down a fraction on the 2019 general election – a point clung on to by a succession of Conservative MPs – but this argument ignores that the Conservative vote was a quarter of what it was.

There is no easy way for the Tories to spin their way out of this beyond the opening bluster.

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Double by-election defeat for Tories

Meanwhile Andrew Bowie, a Scottish minister, said that while it’s important to listen “what is clear is that they do agree with our priorities” and “support what we are doing” but “they are not prepared to vote for us at the moment”.

When asked if he thought the Tories were doing everything right, he replied: “Obviously there’s always room for improvement but we are absolutely determined we are on the right course.”

This suggests a government that speaks the language of listening without any intention of action.

Perhaps it is too difficult for the Tories to upend the plan at this point.

Mr Sunak has already done one reset this autumn – changing policies, Cabinet members and the team in Number 10 and so far there is little sign it is paying off.

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Sam Coates questions Tory minister Andrew Bowie

There are enough things already on the agenda to have to cope with: the plan is coming together for next month’s King’s Speech with legislation which has little parliamentary time to pass, followed by an autumn statement which may unveil a mega fiscal black hole.

The final roll of the dice is a possible reshuffle later in the year if Mr Sunak thinks he is stronger than he was at the start of September.

This is enough change on the cards; inside Number 10 they likely do not think there is much need for any further revolution.

The question is how the wider Conservative movement now responds to the dreadful response.

Read more:
What Labour’s by-election successes could mean for next general election
Biscuits, buttocks and shock results: Why by-elections are rarely boring

The party conference in September suggested a membership already looking around for alternatives, and some MPs wanting to show they’re listening.

Will this mean restless Tory MPs, pushing for yet more bolder, more distinctive policies – often ideas that appease factions on the right of the party?

Or will it mean a rush for the exit in the new year – more Tory MPs sniffing the wind and deciding not to stand again?

Mr Sunak will try and shrug off wider discontent, but the question is whether he’s strong enough to do this successfully.

The unwelcome message the results send will be heard far and wide across the Conservative movement, meaning it is hard to predict what will happen next.

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Tories repeat calls for Rayner to resign after lawyers claim they did not provide tax advice

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Tories repeat calls for Rayner to resign after lawyers claim they did not provide tax advice

The Conservatives have repeated calls for Angela Rayner to resign after a legal firm she used said it did not provide her with tax advice in a row over underpaid stamp duty.

Party leader Kemi Badenoch said more “damning evidence” had come to light regarding the deputy leader’s tax affairs, which is now subject to an investigation by the prime minister’s independent ethics adviser Sir Laurie Magnus.

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The Daily Telegraph reported that Verrico & Associates, a conveyancing firm that handled the purchase of her £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex, did not in fact give tax or trust advice to Ms Rayner – and that they believed they had been made “scapegoats” in the political row.

Joanna Verrico, the managing director, told The Telegraph: “We acted for Ms Rayner when she purchased the flat in Hove. We did not and never have given tax or trust advice. It’s something we always refer our clients to an accountant or tax expert for.

“The stamp duty for the Hove flat was calculated using HMRC’s own online calculator, based on the figures and the information provided by Ms Rayner. That’s what we used, and it told us we had to pay £30,000 based on the information provided to us. We believe that we did everything correctly and in good faith. Everything was exactly as it should be.

“We probably are being made scapegoats for all this, and I have got the arrows stuck in my back to show it. We are not an inexperienced firm, but we’re not qualified to give advice on trust and tax matters and we advise clients to seek expert advice on these.”

More on Angela Rayner

Sky News has approached representatives for Ms Rayner for comment as well Verrico & Associates.

The deputy prime minister, who is also the housing secretary, has been under scrutiny after the newspaper claimed she avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on the flat in Hove by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.

Ms Rayner said she sold her stake in her family home in Ashton-under-Lyne to a trust that was set up to provide for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities – meaning she did not technically own that home when she purchased the one in Hove, and so was not subject to the higher rate of stamp duty that applies to second homes.

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Liz Bates on the row engulfing Angela Rayner

On Tuesday Sir Keir Starmer’s deputy claimed she made an honest mistake owing to her “complex” living situation and that lawyers initially advised her she only owed the basic rate of stamp duty for the Hove property.

In an interview with Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Ms Rayner became tearful as she claimed she received incorrect tax advice and spoke to her family about “packing it all in”.

However, following subsequent media reports, Ms Rayner sought further legal advice on Monday this week which advised her that the higher rate of stamp duty was in fact due on her East Sussex flat.

The deputy prime minister has claimed she made an honest mistake as lawyers initially advised her she only owed the basic rate of stamp duty when she bought a flat in Hove in May.

Read more:
Key questions left unanswered in Angela Rayner tax row
Victim of misogyny’ or ‘freeloading’ deputy prime minister?

On the statement from Verrico & Associates, Ms Badenoch said: “This is yet more damning evidence that Angela Rayner has not been honest with the British public.

“From the start we’ve had nothing but excuses, deflections and lies. Enough is enough.

“How many final straws can there be for Angela Rayner? She must resign or Keir Starmer must finally find the backbone to sack her.”

Sir Keir Starmer has so far said he would not be drawn on Ms Rayner’s political future, but said he would “of course” act on the findings of Sir Laurie who will look into whether she broke ministerial rules.

In an interview with the BBC, Sir Keir said: “There’s a clear procedure. I strengthened that procedure. I am expecting a result pretty quickly.

“I do want it to be comprehensive … and then of course I will act on whatever the report is that’s put in front of me.”

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SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

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SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

The proposed rule changes potentially affecting SEC guidelines on broker-dealers, custody and reporting could allow crypto companies to operate in the US with less oversight.

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Fate of ‘Red Queen’ Rayner in hands of ‘quango king’ baronet

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Fate of 'Red Queen' Rayner in hands of 'quango king' baronet

The backgrounds of Angela Rayner and Sir Laurie Magnus – the sleaze watchdog who holds her fate in his hands – couldn’t be more different.

Labour’s “Red Queen” is a working-class council house girl who got pregnant at 16. He’s an old Etonian “quango king”, a City grandee and a pillar of the establishment.

He’s so posh he wasn’t awarded his knighthood in the usual way by the Monarch after being nominated by 10 Downing Street. He’s a baronet whose title is hereditary.

But though Sir Laurie’s a proper toff, he’s no pushover and he doesn’t waste time. In 2023 his investigation into former Tory minister Nadhim Zahawi’s tax affairs took just six days.

Sir Laurie concluded that Mr Zahawi’s conduct had fallen below what was expected from a minister. So the then PM Rishi Sunak sacked him for a “serious breach of the ministerial code”.

This year, Labour minister Tulip Siddiq quit after Sir Laurie said she should have been more alert to “potential reputational risks” of ties to her aunt in an anti-corruption investigation in Bangladesh.

That inquiry took eight days, so might Sir Laurie’s Angela Rayner probe take about a week? Perhaps, though it has been suggested he’s due to go on holiday on Saturday. So could his report come before then?

More on Angela Rayner

Sir Laurie was appointed by Mr Sunak more than eight weeks after he became PM. At the time, there were claims that he was struggling to find a candidate.

That was because the two previous holders of the post, veteran mandarin Sir Alex Allan and former Royal courtier Sir Christopher Geidt, both quit after disagreements with Boris Johnson.

Sir Alex quit in 2020 after finding former home secretary Priti Patel guilty of bullying. But then Mr Johnson declared that she had not breached the ministerial code.

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Angela Rayner admitted to Beth Rigby that she didn’t pay enough tax on a property she bought in Hove.

Sir Christopher, a former private secretary to the Queen, quit in June 2022 after concluding Mr Johnson may have broken ministerial rules over party-gate.

So Mr Sunak turned to Sir Laurie, a former merchant banker who served on half a dozen quangos and whose long business career involved links with disgraced retail tycoon Sir Philip Green and the late tycoon Robert Maxwell.

Read more:
Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty
Rayner came out fighting in Sky interview
Rayner’s tax affairs statement in full

There was immediately controversy because Mr Sunak refused to give Sir Laurie the power to launch his own investigations into allegations or ministerial wrong-doing. That changed when Sir Keir Starmer became PM last year.

But before then, Sir Laurie couldn’t launch his own inquiry into the conduct of Dominic Raab over bullying allegations or Suella Braverman over claims of leaking and ignoring legal advice over asylum.

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Sky’s Paul Kelso breaks down the facts behind Angela Rayner’s stamp duty controversy.

The role of independent adviser on ministerial standards, to give Sir Laurie his official title, was created by Tony Blair in 2006. Ministers can refer themselves for investigation, as Tulip Siddiq and Angela Rayner both did.

Why was Sir Laurie chosen? A senior Square Mile insider told Sky News: “Laurie Magnus is very much a member of the City’s great and the good.”

Sir Laurence Henry Philip Magnus, 3rd Baronet is the third in a baronetcy that dates back to 1917, when it was awarded to an ancestor who represented London University in the House of Commons.

His quango CV includes the chairmanship of Historic England, a former trustee of the conservation charity the Landmark Trust, ex-chair of the National Trust, membership of the Culture Recovery Fund, a trustee of English Heritage Trust and deputy chair of the All Churches Trust.

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Has Rayner tax issues thrown uncertainty over the Starmer project?

As Historic England boss, Sir Laurie entered the row over the tearing down of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol, claiming such statues should not be removed but have “counter-memorials” placed alongside them.

Besides his quango roles, Sir Laurie remains a major figure in the City, as a senior adviser at investment banking group Evercore and chairing two FTSE 250 listed investment trusts.

Which means that the class divide between the old Etonian City grandee and the former shop steward and champion of workers’ rights whose fate is in his hands couldn’t be greater.

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