Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil
It’s common knowledge that Norway is the land of electric cars and that the country keeps breaking EV sales records with virtually no new fossil vehicle sales. But what’s really important is the effect those EVs are having on oil sales, which are in steep decline in the country as a result – and the same thing could happen elsewhere.
Norwegian statistics agency SSB released its latest numbers on motor fuel sales today, showing a whopping 9% decline in motor fuel sales year-over-year for the month of September.
This is a result of Norway’s world-leading EV sales, with over 90% of new vehicles in the country having some sort of plug and vanishingly few having no electrification at all. The country has exceeded its own high expectations, virtually ending fossil vehicle sales years ahead of schedule.
However, there are still fossil vehicles on the road from previous years that are continuing to pollute and use fossil fuels throughout their lifecycle. But as they age and are replaced almost solely with EVs, the vehicle fleet cycles out from fossil to electric. If it takes 10-15 years for the vehicle fleet to cycle out, then that means Norway would remove ~6-10% of fossil cars from the road every year, replace them with electric cars, and thus reduce motor fuel usage by a similar amount every year.
But this trend is nothing particularly new. While this big 9% drop is just a one-month snapshot, petrol/gasoline sales have been in decline for about two decades in the country, as diesel started to replace petrol in the mid-2000s. But diesel has also been in decline for the better part of a decade, as electricity has replaced it as a motor fuel.
To compare against other rapid declines, US coal usage has gone from a peak of 1,045 million tons in 2007 to 469 million tons in 2022, a decline of about 5% per year (and going from ~50% of the US electricity mix to ~20% now, and dropping). Many observers acknowledged, even near the beginning of this trend, that coal was a dead industry. Any subsequent attempts to expand it have been unserious political stunts that were doomed to fail from the start – everyone (with a brain) knows the industry is dead.
But in that context, Norway’s decline in motor fuel sales seems to be happening almost twice as fast on a percentage basis as the United States’ decline in coal use, at least according to today’s data point. And the long-term trend may accelerate as the country now has virtually no gas vehicle sales.
This is important because when we talk about electrifying the auto industry, the point is not just to get people into better cars with neat new technology. The point is to reduce oil consumption, such that carbon that belongs underground stays there – permanently.
This is vitally important because if we burned even a fraction of all the oil that is already discovered and owned by oil companies, the carbon released would cause catastrophic climate change. This was covered in Bill McKibben’s excellent 2012 article “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.”
The only way we can avoid this fate is through one of the more wonderful phrases in the English language: “stranded assets.” In this context, the phrase refers to oil reserves owned by oil companies which get written off of those companies’ books because they are uneconomical to extract and sell.
In short, oil companies need to lose money, and lots of them need to go bankrupt.
And while Norway is just one relatively small country, news like this shows how that could happen as EV sales (and better yet, even cleaner methods of transportation like e-bikes and public transit) grow rapidly worldwide.
Oil demand -> oil prices -> oil supply
There is an interplay between oil demand, oil prices, and oil supply that could lead to a death spiral for the oil industry.
Lately, oil prices have been quite high around the world, nearing the historic highs of the 2010s and late 70s. This spike has largely been driven by pandemic-related supply (and demand) disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and, as always, the decisions of Saudi Arabia (in this case, their decision to cut supply to buoy oil prices).
But looking back to the last peak, we can see another interesting thing: a giant drop in oil prices in the mid-2010s, which was driven by a “supply glut.” This supply glut was at least partially related to increased usage of hybrid and electric cars, which led to a relatively small decrease in oil demand. However, that small decrease meant that more oil was being pumped than used, which led prices to drop by about two-thirds in a matter of months.
The effect of oil prices on consumer demand is that as oil prices go up, usage (often) goes down, and interest in electric cars goes up. This stands to reason, as people start thinking about more efficient vehicles when the cost of fueling their vehicle becomes too much.
But the effect on supply is less popularly examined. In this case, low oil prices can actually be environmentally advantageous because it means that oil companies are less incentivized to explore new methods of extraction and that more expensive methods (such as tar sands extraction, which is also much more environmentally costly) become uneconomical.
If it costs more to extract the oil than the oil is worth, then the project won’t get started. And if the project doesn’t get started, then the oil stays in the ground to begin with, right where it belongs.
So, in a way, low oil prices can actually be better for the environment than high oil prices. This means fewer projects get started, and more projects and companies go bankrupt due to high costs and low profits.
And this is the spiral that we want to see. As the primary driver of oil demand (vehicles, specifically consumer vehicles) disappears, oil prices can drop because of this supply-demand imbalance. Then, there will be less reason for companies to extract oil in the first place, leading to the stranded assets we spoke of before.
Some regions with low cost of extraction might even prefer it this way and work to ensure this happens. The Middle East can extract oil for cheaper than anywhere else, so it could be to their benefit to put high-cost extraction methods out of business. Norway itself is an oil country (primarily for export, at this point) and has middling oil-extraction costs, but it may benefit in the short term from a shakeout of higher-cost countries. But ideally, Norway’s extraction would soon become uneconomical – and hopefully, so will Saudi Arabia’s.
The one danger of this path is that if oil demand does drop low enough, low oil prices could jeopardize consumer decision-making to move to cleaner options. Oil is subsidized to the tune of trillions of dollars worldwide per year based on unpriced external costs that all of us are paying on the back end – usually in the form of higher hospital bills or other environmental costs.
This could be solved by finally properly pricing oil globally, as Norway already rightly does. Norway’s realistic pricing for carbon pollution has helped to ensure that the true price of oil is reflected in consumer pricing, making it more apparent to consumers that fossil vehicles are not an economical option for society or their pocketbooks.
In contrast, the artificially low gasoline costs in the US (yes, US gasoline prices are still artificially low, even at today’s high prices) work to buoy consumer oil demand. Removing the ~$650 billion in implicit subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry in the US alone would help ensure that fair market conditions could prevail, and consumers would have a clear choice about what the better and cleaner option is.
And if we finally let the market work freely, after more than a century of both direct and implicit oil subsidies that have coddled this lying, deadly industry, we could finally see it spiral into the oblivion it deserves.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
The all-electric Cadillac LYRIQ was an Electrek favorite when it first made its debut two years ago. Now, LYRIQ buyers who have been waiting for a deal can score more than $10,500 in discounts on the Ultium-based Caddy.
Our own Seth Weintraub said that GM had come in, “a year early and dollar long at $60K” when he first drove the Ultium-based Cadillac LYRIQ back in 2022. He called the SUV “a stunner,” too, heaping praise on the LYRIQ’s styling inside and out before adding that the EV’s ride quality really impressed on long journeys.
Well, if the first mainstream electric Cadillac was a winner at its original, $57,195 starting price (rounded up to $60K for easy math), what could we call it at $10,500 less?
That’s a question that’s suddenly worth asking, thanks to huge GM discounts on the LYRIQ that prompted the automotive pricing analysts at CarsDirect to name the 2024 LYRIQ one of the industry’s “Best New Car Deals” this month:
A slew of incentives can enable you to save big on a 2024 Cadillac LYRIQ. First, EVs eligible for the federal tax credit qualify for $7,500 in Ultium Promise Bonus Cash from GM. Additionally, competing EV owners can score $3,000 in conquest cash.
Meghan Carbary | CarsDirect
With more than 100 kWh of battery capacity and 300-plus miles of real-world driving range (plus available 190 kW charging capability) the Cadillac LYRIQ ticks all the boxes – but you don’t have to take just my word for that.
You can check out Electrek‘s original First Drive video, below, and click here to find Cadillac LYRIQ deals near you.
First Drive: Cadillac LYRIQ | Luxury E-CUV
SOURCE | IMAGES: CarsDirect.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
![Volvo CE rolls out autonomous equipment at Volvo Days 2024 [part 2]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/09/ta15_MAIN.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Volvo Days 2024 packed a lot of innovative new products into a few short days, but the company’s autonomous construction robots still managed to stand out.
A global shortage of qualified operators is impacting job sites everywhere, precisely at a time when demand for housing, mineral mining, and renewable energy construction is going from peak to peak. That’s why companies from Caterpillar to Tesla to Einride are pushing to advance autonomy the way they are.
And, like they’ve done with semi truck electrification, Volvo Group’s vision for the future has them firmly in a leadership role as the construction industry automates.
CX01 autonomous hybrid compactor
First revealed as a concept in 2021, Volvo CE’s CX01 autonomous “single drum” asphalt roller concept has seen continuous development in the years since. Making its Volvo Days debut, the CX01 has shed the original single drum design for a “split drum,” with each half being controlled by an internalized, independent electric motor.
The CX01’s electric motors not only help to propel and steer the roller, they also vibrate the drums individually, using some trick software calibration to effectively “cancel each other out,” delivering all the benefits of vibrating drum rollers without the noise.
It’s so smart, you guys
It’s also worth noting that the CX01 is something of an “extended range” EV, instead of a “pure” BEV. That’s because it uses a small, 1.4L diesel engine to spin a generator that powers not batteries, but capacitors (those blue things, above right). Those capacitors can be charged on grid power (or from an accompanying TC13 trench compactor), but they’re much better than batteries at releasing energy really quickly, enabling the diesel to operate at its maximum efficiency while maintaining extremely precise, high-torque movement from the motors.
Volvo CE engineers envision a team CX01 rollers units deployed on larger job sites that could work together and communicate with other pieces of equipment on the site. The connected equipment could help survey the job site, report on the conditions of the mat (density, temperature, and passes), and leverage AI to determine when and where to compact without the need for human operators.
All of which is great, sure – but they had me at “giant OneWheel.”
Volvo TA15 autonomous electric haul truck
Part of Volvo CE’ “TARA” line of autonomous products, the “production ready” TA15 autonomous electric haul trucks are already part of a number of pilot programs on Volvo customer job sites. Being autonomous, they’re ideally suited to performing repetitive routes, dozens of times per day, without exposing human operators to fatigue or injury.
Big robot dumper
The Volvo TA15 is a fully automated electric dumper designed to operate on busy job sites with tight tolerances. With the TA15, Volvo says customers will be able to replace larger, diesel-powered vehicles with a fleet of smaller, “right sized” Volvo TA15s. The electric haul bots offer cleaner, quieter operation and increase efficiency.
“TARA enables you to downsize and replace larger diesel-powered vehicles with a fleet of autonomous electric Volvo TA15s capable of running 24/7,” reads the official TARA release. “This not only helps you cut emissions and increase productivity, it will also help you rightsize your machinery and optimize your hauling routes.”
And that brings us to the real topic at hand: sustainability.
Electrek’s Take
As we’ve often discussed on The Heavy Equipment Podcast, there are two types of sustainability, and both are important. The first is the “classic” version of sustainability, in that our choices need to sustain the planet and environment we live in. The second is sustainability of the business – the ability to keep doing business in a way that ensures the survival of the business, itself.
Looking at the conventional Volvo SD110 conventional roller, above, you can see the incredible amount of materials – of steel, rubber, plastic, glass, etc. – that simply isn’t needed to produce the CX01 roller we started this article with.
All that added mass has a massive hidden carbon cost. The cost of getting those materials out of the ground, the need for bigger, heavier roads to support the weight of the machine, and the bigger, burlier trucks and trailers needed to transport it. Heck, even the operator’s commute to and from the job site adds to the carbon cost of the SD110, over and above the harmful emissions from its diesel engine’s exhaust stack.
The CX01? It’s objectively more sustainable than the SD110 roller in every way, and does pretty much the same job.
The Volvo TA15, too, is lighter and more compact than a conventional rigid haul truck. That reduced mass enables job sites and mining operations to maintain narrower haul routs that are less expensive to build and easier/cheaper to maintain, all while contributing to carbon reductions all across even the broadest scope of job site operations.
That’s both sustainable, and sustainable – and just another reason why forward-thinking fleet buyers will be watching this space closely.
ORIGINAL CONTENT FROM ELECTREK.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Following successful inbound implementations in the Pacific Northwest, North Carolina, and Mexico, Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) is expanding the reach of its electric semi fleet into Arizona with long-time associate JB Hunt.
JB Hunt will add the new Freightliner eCascadia electric semi to its Arizona fleet immediately, and put it to work delivering aftermarket truck parts from DTNA’s parts distribution center (PDC) in Phoenix to multiple DTNA dealers along a dedicated route.
The electric Freightliner truck is expected to cover approximately 100 miles in a given day before heading “home” to a Detroit eFill charger installed at Daimler’s Phoenix facility.
This milestone marks the first all-electric route in the DTNA aftermarket parts distribution network, significantly reducing carbon emissions and setting a precedent for future sustainable outbound logistics operations.
“This solution with DTNA is a great example of our commitment to supporting customers’ efforts to reduce their carbon footprint and work towards energy transition,” explains Greer Woodruff, executive vice president of safety, sustainability and maintenance at JB Hunt. “JB Hunt owns and operates several eCascadias on behalf of customers, and our drivers have really enjoyed their in-cab experience. As customer interest continues to grow, we are here to enable their pursuit for a more sustainable supply chain in the most economic means possible.”
Daimler is analyzing future expansion opportunities throughout its internal parts distribution and logistics with an eye on electrifing additional routes and further reducing the carbon footprint of its logistics operations.
JB Hunt will evaluate its utilization of the charging station for other customers in the area, eventually enabling fully integrated zero-emission vehicle solutions into its 3PL fleets.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Daimler Trucks North America.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports6 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports11 months agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Environment1 year agoTesla advances Powerwall pilot project with German electric company