Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil
It’s common knowledge that Norway is the land of electric cars and that the country keeps breaking EV sales records with virtually no new fossil vehicle sales. But what’s really important is the effect those EVs are having on oil sales, which are in steep decline in the country as a result – and the same thing could happen elsewhere.
Norwegian statistics agency SSB released its latest numbers on motor fuel sales today, showing a whopping 9% decline in motor fuel sales year-over-year for the month of September.
This is a result of Norway’s world-leading EV sales, with over 90% of new vehicles in the country having some sort of plug and vanishingly few having no electrification at all. The country has exceeded its own high expectations, virtually ending fossil vehicle sales years ahead of schedule.
However, there are still fossil vehicles on the road from previous years that are continuing to pollute and use fossil fuels throughout their lifecycle. But as they age and are replaced almost solely with EVs, the vehicle fleet cycles out from fossil to electric. If it takes 10-15 years for the vehicle fleet to cycle out, then that means Norway would remove ~6-10% of fossil cars from the road every year, replace them with electric cars, and thus reduce motor fuel usage by a similar amount every year.
But this trend is nothing particularly new. While this big 9% drop is just a one-month snapshot, petrol/gasoline sales have been in decline for about two decades in the country, as diesel started to replace petrol in the mid-2000s. But diesel has also been in decline for the better part of a decade, as electricity has replaced it as a motor fuel.
To compare against other rapid declines, US coal usage has gone from a peak of 1,045 million tons in 2007 to 469 million tons in 2022, a decline of about 5% per year (and going from ~50% of the US electricity mix to ~20% now, and dropping). Many observers acknowledged, even near the beginning of this trend, that coal was a dead industry. Any subsequent attempts to expand it have been unserious political stunts that were doomed to fail from the start – everyone (with a brain) knows the industry is dead.
But in that context, Norway’s decline in motor fuel sales seems to be happening almost twice as fast on a percentage basis as the United States’ decline in coal use, at least according to today’s data point. And the long-term trend may accelerate as the country now has virtually no gas vehicle sales.
This is important because when we talk about electrifying the auto industry, the point is not just to get people into better cars with neat new technology. The point is to reduce oil consumption, such that carbon that belongs underground stays there – permanently.
This is vitally important because if we burned even a fraction of all the oil that is already discovered and owned by oil companies, the carbon released would cause catastrophic climate change. This was covered in Bill McKibben’s excellent 2012 article “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.”
The only way we can avoid this fate is through one of the more wonderful phrases in the English language: “stranded assets.” In this context, the phrase refers to oil reserves owned by oil companies which get written off of those companies’ books because they are uneconomical to extract and sell.
In short, oil companies need to lose money, and lots of them need to go bankrupt.
And while Norway is just one relatively small country, news like this shows how that could happen as EV sales (and better yet, even cleaner methods of transportation like e-bikes and public transit) grow rapidly worldwide.
Oil demand -> oil prices -> oil supply
There is an interplay between oil demand, oil prices, and oil supply that could lead to a death spiral for the oil industry.
Lately, oil prices have been quite high around the world, nearing the historic highs of the 2010s and late 70s. This spike has largely been driven by pandemic-related supply (and demand) disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and, as always, the decisions of Saudi Arabia (in this case, their decision to cut supply to buoy oil prices).
But looking back to the last peak, we can see another interesting thing: a giant drop in oil prices in the mid-2010s, which was driven by a “supply glut.” This supply glut was at least partially related to increased usage of hybrid and electric cars, which led to a relatively small decrease in oil demand. However, that small decrease meant that more oil was being pumped than used, which led prices to drop by about two-thirds in a matter of months.
The effect of oil prices on consumer demand is that as oil prices go up, usage (often) goes down, and interest in electric cars goes up. This stands to reason, as people start thinking about more efficient vehicles when the cost of fueling their vehicle becomes too much.
But the effect on supply is less popularly examined. In this case, low oil prices can actually be environmentally advantageous because it means that oil companies are less incentivized to explore new methods of extraction and that more expensive methods (such as tar sands extraction, which is also much more environmentally costly) become uneconomical.
If it costs more to extract the oil than the oil is worth, then the project won’t get started. And if the project doesn’t get started, then the oil stays in the ground to begin with, right where it belongs.
So, in a way, low oil prices can actually be better for the environment than high oil prices. This means fewer projects get started, and more projects and companies go bankrupt due to high costs and low profits.
And this is the spiral that we want to see. As the primary driver of oil demand (vehicles, specifically consumer vehicles) disappears, oil prices can drop because of this supply-demand imbalance. Then, there will be less reason for companies to extract oil in the first place, leading to the stranded assets we spoke of before.
Some regions with low cost of extraction might even prefer it this way and work to ensure this happens. The Middle East can extract oil for cheaper than anywhere else, so it could be to their benefit to put high-cost extraction methods out of business. Norway itself is an oil country (primarily for export, at this point) and has middling oil-extraction costs, but it may benefit in the short term from a shakeout of higher-cost countries. But ideally, Norway’s extraction would soon become uneconomical – and hopefully, so will Saudi Arabia’s.
The one danger of this path is that if oil demand does drop low enough, low oil prices could jeopardize consumer decision-making to move to cleaner options. Oil is subsidized to the tune of trillions of dollars worldwide per year based on unpriced external costs that all of us are paying on the back end – usually in the form of higher hospital bills or other environmental costs.
This could be solved by finally properly pricing oil globally, as Norway already rightly does. Norway’s realistic pricing for carbon pollution has helped to ensure that the true price of oil is reflected in consumer pricing, making it more apparent to consumers that fossil vehicles are not an economical option for society or their pocketbooks.
In contrast, the artificially low gasoline costs in the US (yes, US gasoline prices are still artificially low, even at today’s high prices) work to buoy consumer oil demand. Removing the ~$650 billion in implicit subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry in the US alone would help ensure that fair market conditions could prevail, and consumers would have a clear choice about what the better and cleaner option is.
And if we finally let the market work freely, after more than a century of both direct and implicit oil subsidies that have coddled this lying, deadly industry, we could finally see it spiral into the oblivion it deserves.
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Environment
Check out Kia’s upgraded EV6 GT, spotted in the US for the first time in matte blue [Video]
![Check out Kia's upgraded EV6 GT, spotted in the US for the first time in matte blue [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/01/Kias-new-EV6-GT-US.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Kia’s fastest car (EV or gas) is getting a major upgrade. The new Kia EV6 GT was spotted in the US for the first time, and it looks like a drastic improvement from the already sporty EV. Check out Kia’s new EV6 GT in matte blue.
With a starting price tag of just over $60,000, the EV6 GT (see our review) is one of the most affordable electric sports cars on the market.
With up to 576 hp and 545 lb-ft of torque, Kia’s EV can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in just 3.4 seconds. The EV6 GT is not only Kia’s most powerful vehicle so far, but it’s also among the fastest cars from any automaker, including gas-powered ones.
Kia put its top performer up against a Ferrari Roma and Lamborghini Huracan Evo Spyder RWD to prove it. An independent test by AMCI confirmed the electric sports car “out-accelerated” the iconic sports cars.
Now, Kia’s EV6 GT is getting even more powerful, dynamic, and sporty. Kia launched the upgraded model in Korea in late November, starting at just over $50,000 (72.2 million won).
Kia’s new EV6 refresh debuted in the US at the LA Auto Show in November. It now has even more driving range, faster charging, and a slick new look. It even includes an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers. The new GT trim boasts up to 641 hp (478 kW) and 568 lb-ft (770 Nm) max torque, which is good for a 0 to 62 mph (0 to 100 km/h) sprint in just 3.5 seconds.
What to expect from Kia’s new EV6 GT in the US
Powered by Kia’s fourth-generation battery pack, the new EV6 GT has a driving range of up to 220 miles (355 km), up from 332 km (206 mi) in the outgoing model.
With deliveries approaching, the new EV6 GT was spotted in the US for the first time without any camouflage. The video from KindelAuto gives us a good look at what to expect from Kia’s sporty new EV. The most noticeable feature is the matte blue, which adds to the already sleek design.
You can see other upgrades immediately, like the redesigned front bumper and headlights. The rear bumper is wider with a wing-type design, while the 3-D taillights are based on Kia’s Star Map design.
It also pulls a fan favorite from Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 N with a new Virtual Gear Shift (VGS) feature. We caught it in action last month after a Korean YouTuber showed off how it works (see the video here).
Kia will build 2025 EV6 models, except the GT trim, at its Georgia assembly plant alongside the new EV9. The new model will be available in Light (RWD), Light Long Range (RWD or e-AWD), Wind (RWD or e-AWD), GT-Line (RWD or e-AWD), and GT (e-AWD) trims. It is expected to go on sale in the first half of next year.
With a larger 84 kWh battery pack, the refreshed EV has a range of 319 miles, up from 310 in the outgoing model.
Kia also upgraded the interior with its new connected car Navigation Cockpit (ccNC) OS system, which features dual 12.3″ driver and infotainment screens in a curved display.
A Kia official said the upgraded model “will become a new standard that will change the paradigm of high-performance electric vehicles.”
Do you agree? Can it compete with top-of-the-line EV sports cars like the Tesla Model S Plaid or Porsche Taycan Turbo GT? It’s already about half the cost. In the comments below, let us know your thoughts on the upgraded EV6 GT.
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A Tesla Cybercab, or Robotaxi, Tesla has been using the names alternatively, has been spotted with a steering wheel – raising questions.
Last year, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab, a two-seat steering wheel-less electric vehicle that the automaker claims will power a fleet of autonomous ride-hailing vehicles.
At the unveiling, Tesla gave some rides in the vehicle, but it was on a closed circuits on private roads with teleoperations. The vehicle didn’t display capabilities much more advanced than what it already deployed in customer vehicles.
Many industry watchers are skeptical about the vehicle because it relies on the same ‘Full Self-Driving (Supervised)’ technology in Tesla’s existing vehicles. However, Tesla is betting that it will be able to make it “unsupervised” by the time this vehicle gets into production in 2026 since it doesn’t have a steering wheel to be “supervised” like Tesla’s existing customer fleet.
As we have often reported, the only data available on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program suggests that this is highly unlikely.
But now, a Tesla Cybercab has been spotted with a steering wheel at Gigafactory Texas:
The picture was taken by Joe Tegtmeyer, who often flies drones over Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas in Austin.
Some questioned whether the image showed a wheel or a shadow, but it becomes quite clear that it is a steering wheel when playing with image’s contrast and exposure:
This is raising some questions. Some are questioning if it means Tesla is also planning a consumer version of the vehicle with a steering wheel, but that sounds like wishful thinking as Tesla insisted that this vehicle will launch without a steering wheel.
The more likely explanation is that Tesla is using a steering wheel to test the vehicle with driver supervision, as its current technology relies on it. This also enables it to avoid some reporting regulations regarding autonomous driving test programs.
The sighting is also interesting with the context of Elon Musk’s recent claim that Tesla is conducting ‘unsupervised self-driving trials’ with employees.
We questioned this claim, which he made off the cuff when playing a video game, as Tesla has no autonomous driving test permit. It sounds like he either confused it with the supervised ride-hailing service for employees in the Bay Area announced last quarter or the limited testing with Cybercabs at Gigafafactory Texas’ private roads that we have seen before.
This Cybercab with a steering wheel could show that Tesla is actually conducting these trials supervised, which would make more sense.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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The world’s largest electric vehicle maker is becoming a force in the global auto market. BYD confirmed it’s on track to open another massive EV plant overseas by the end of 2025. The new facility in Indonesia will be able to produce 150,000 vehicles a year as BYD expands its overseas manufacturing footprint.
After selling a record over 4.27 million new energy vehicles (NEVs) last year, BYD is turning up the pressure in 2025.
Tesla topped BYD by about 25,000 units last year for the global EV sales crown. However, in terms of production, China’s leader sneaked past Tesla by about 4,500 vehicles to claim the title of “World’s largest EV maker” for 2024.
As a new wave of homegrown EVs arrives in China, BYD is focusing on overseas markets to drive growth in 2025.
After opening its first EV plant in Thailand last year, BYD confirmed another overseas manufacturing facility is on track to open by the end of the year. In a new interview with Reuters, Eagles Zhao, BYD’s president director in Indonesia, said the company is aiming to finish the $1 billion manufacturing plant in the region by the end of 2025.
“Every single progression of our local manufacturing is quite smooth and also on the track. We will keep our commitment, which is by end-2025,” Zhao said.
BYD to open new overseas EV plant in Indonesia in 2025
According to Zhao, BYD plans to use the new EV plant for exports as it aggressively expands into overseas markets.
Like its plant in Thailand, the new overseas facility will have a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. Because of the $1 billion investment, BYD has been temporarily allowed to ship cars into Indonesia without an important tax.
The move is part of Indonesia’s goal to build 600,000 EVs domestically by 2030. Like other Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia is introducing new policies to attract foreign investments and take advantage of the market’s shift to EVs.
BYD is already the leading EV maker in Indonesia, accounting for over a third (36%) of the market. According to the auto association, the EV giant sold nearly 15,500 vehicles last year, its first full sales year.
The company already sells several popular models in Indonesia, including the Seal, Atto 3, and Dolphin. Last summer, it launched its first electric multi-purpose vehicle (MPV), the M6. BYD said the M6 was already its best-selling vehicle last year. This week, BYD is introducing its luxury Denza brand.
According to Zhao, BYD will launch more vehicles in the region this year but didn’t say what models or how many to expect.
Once construction is complete, Zhao expects production to begin shortly after. With new models arriving, BYD expects “rapid” sales growth in Indonesia this year.
Electrek’s Take
BYD’s rapid rise in the global auto market is already causing legacy automakers to scramble. For example, Japan’s Honda and Nissan are now teaming up as they struggle to keep pace with BYD and other Chinese EV makers.
Japanese car brands like Toyota and Honda have historically dominated Southeast Asia. Once representing over 90% of the market, Japanese automakers have watched their share of the “Detroit of Asia,” or Thailand, fall to just 76% over the past two years.
In fact, BYD sold more electric cars in Japan last year than Toyota, and 2024 was BYD’s first full sales year in Toyota’s home market.
BYD is quickly expanding the brand globally with new plants opening in Mexico, Brazil, Hungary, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Although BYD is best known for low-cost EVs like the Seagull and Dolphin, it is launching new models in just about every segment, including pickup trucks, smart SUVs, luxury models, and electric supercars.
One thing is for certain: BYD will continue to be a name to watch in 2025 as the company looks to maintain its impressive global sales run.
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