SEC has 3%–14% chance of success in Ripple appeal, lawyers predict
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has a very slim chance of winning its appeal against Ripple in the ongoing lawsuit, according to lawyer Bill Morgan, who has been closely following the lawsuit.
Morgan, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), argued that there is no obvious appellable error other than in “Ripple’s favour regarding ODL sales which don’t meet at least two prongs of the Howey test,” while adding that there is a very slim chance of about 3% for SEC’s success in getting an appeal against Ripple.
I don’t see any obvious appellable error other than in Ripple’s favor in respect of ODL sales which don’t meet at least two prongs of the Howey test. The SEC’s prospects of success on appeal are very slim and I feel generous today so I am giving it 3% chance of success on appeal https://t.co/FRIFbqzmVA
— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) October 22, 2023
Morgan’s prediction came in repose of another statistic shared by Jeremy Hogan, a prominent attorney, who shared government data on the rate of success of appeals in different types of lawsuits. The data suggests the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning the appeal against Ripple.
The SEC fought a long-drawn court battle against Ripple for three years before a judge ruled that the sale of XRP on crypto exchanges doesn’t violate securities law. The judgment came as a major win for Ripple, which lost a significant chunk of business during the SEC lawsuit in the U.S. as major crypto exchanges delisted XRP (XRP) from their platforms.
The SEC also lost an appeal against the judgment in which Judge Analisa Torres ruled on Oct. 4 that the security regulator failed to meet its burden to show that there were controlling questions of law or substantial grounds for differences of opinion on the ruling.
Related: Lawyers debate over Ripple case after rejection of SEC’s motion for appeal
Later on Oct. 19, the SEC moved to dismiss all the charges filed against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen, offering another major victory for Ripple and its executives.
Today was an even better day.
Ripple: 3
SEC: 0In all seriousness, Chris and I (in a case involving no claims of fraud or misrepresentations) were targeted by the SEC in a ruthless attempt to personally ruin us and the company so many have worked hard to build for over a… https://t.co/YsQxewFnj9
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) October 19, 2023
Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty called the SEC’s move “a surrender,” while Ripple, in its official statement, deemed the SEC’s move a “stunning capitulation.”
Morgan noted that the SEC has dismissed the rest of the case, so there will be no trial next year, and predicted that the court might give a “final judgment (probably) sometime next year.”
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Labour’s largest union donor, Unite, has voted to suspend Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over her role in the Birmingham bin strike row.
Members of the trade union, one of the UK’s largest, also “overwhelmingly” voted to “re-examine its relationship” with Labour over the issue.
They said Ms Rayner, who is also housing, communities and local government secretary, Birmingham Council’s leader, John Cotton, and other Labour councillors had been suspended for “bringing the union into disrepute”.
There was confusion over Ms Rayner’s membership of Unite, with her office having said she was no longer a member and resigned months ago and therefore could not be suspended.
But Unite said she was registered as a member. Parliament’s latest register of interests had her down as a member in May.
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The union said an emergency motion was put to members at its policy conference in Brighton on Friday.
Unite is one of the Labour Party’s largest union donors, donating £414,610 in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest amount in that period by a union, company or individual.
The union condemned Birmingham’s Labour council and the government for “attacking the bin workers”.
Mountains of rubbish have been piling up in the city since January after workers first went on strike over changes to their pay, with all-out strike action starting in March. An agreement has still not been made.
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Rat catcher tackling Birmingham’s bins problem
Ms Rayner and the councillors had their membership suspended for “effectively firing and rehiring the workers, who are striking over pay cuts of up to £8,000”, the union added.
‘Missing in action’
General secretary Sharon Graham told Sky News on Saturday morning: “Angela Rayner, who has the power to solve this dispute, has been missing in action, has not been involved, is refusing to come to the table.”
She had earlier said: “Unite is crystal clear, it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette.
“Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.
“The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.
“People up and down the country are asking whose side is the Labour government on and coming up with the answer not workers.”
Piles of rubbish built up around Birmingham because of the strike over pay
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s “priority is and always has been the residents of Birmingham”.
He said the decision by Unite workers to go on strike had “caused disruption” to the city.
“We’ve worked to clean up streets and remain in close contact with the council […] as we support its recovery,” he added.
A total of 800 Unite delegates voted on the motion.
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