Royal Mail has been fined £21m for failing to meet delivery targets for the third year in a row and warned fines are likely to continue unless there’s an improvement.

As well as failing to meet current delivery times for both first and second class mail, Royal Mail did not meet revised down targets agreed with Ofcom.

The delivery network delivered 77% of first class mail and 92.5% of second-class mail on time from April 2024 to March this year, “well short” of its 93% and 98.5% targets, the communications regulator said.

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It’s also below the reduced goals which were set out for the delivery company at the start of the year – bringing down the percentage of first class post delivered the next day from 93% to 90%, and second class mail delivered within three days from 98.5% to 95%.

The latest fine is double that levied last year, £10.5m, and nearly quadruple the £5.6m fine in 2023 because of the repeat offending.

It’s the third-largest fine ever levied by Ofcom and would have been higher, £30m, but for Royal Mail’s admission of wrongdoing and agreement to settle.

Millions not getting what they pay for

Royal Mail has, without justification, failed to provide an acceptable level of service and breached its obligations, Ofcom said.

“It took insufficient and ineffective steps to try and prevent this failure, which is likely to have impacted millions of customers who did not get the service they paid for.”

People have also been experiencing times when letters have taken weeks to arrive.

Ian Strawhorne, director of enforcement at Ofcom, said: “Millions of important letters are arriving late, and people aren’t getting what they pay for when they buy a stamp.

“These persistent failures are unacceptable, and customers expect and deserve better.

“Royal Mail must rebuild consumers’ confidence as a matter of urgency. And that means making actual significant improvements, not more empty promises.”

Real world harms

In highlighting the real-life consequences of the delivery delays, Citizens Advice said it had encountered someone who got a pile of mail with their council tax bill, a court summons for a passed court hearing date and a liability order for the debt, all at the same time.

Another client of the service was sent an eviction notice, which had not arrived more than a week after a copy came from the landlord’s solicitors.

They were unsure if the warrant would arrive by the time the bailiffs came and were unsure how to act, Citizens Advice said.

What next?

Royal Mail has been ordered by Ofcom to urgently and publicly set out and implement a “credible plan” on how it is going to change.

The regulator said it expects to see “meaningful progress soon”, rather than “more empty promises”.

Improvements Ofcom had pressed for have not materialised, it said, and Royal Mail has been called on to make “actual significant improvements”.

“If this doesn’t happen, fines are likely to continue,” the regulator warned.

Ofcom said the “persistent failures” are unacceptable, and customers expect and deserve better.

“Royal Mail must rebuild consumers’ confidence as a matter of urgency,” it added.

The company has also been set a new enforceable target for 99% of mail to be delivered no more than two days late.

How has Royal Mail responded?

A Royal Mail spokesperson said: “We acknowledge the decision made by Ofcom today and we will continue to work hard to deliver further sustained improvements to our quality of service.”

The company has implemented “important changes across our network including recruiting, retaining and training our people, and providing additional support to delivery offices”, they said.

“Where we have piloted universal service changes, we can see that our model is working, with improvements in deliveries,” the spokesperson added.

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

Six months ago the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world economy was heading for a serious slowdown, in the face of Donald Trump’s tariffs.

It slashed its forecasts for economic growth both in the US and predicted that global economic growth would slow to 2.8% this year.

Today the Fund has resurfaced with a markedly different message. It upgraded growth in both the US and elsewhere. Global economic growth this year will actually be 3.2%, it added. So, has the Fund conceded victory to Donald Trump? Is it no longer fretting about the economic impact of tariffs?

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Either way, the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF’s six-monthly analysis of economic trends, is well worth a look. This document is perhaps the ultimate synthesis of what economists are feeling about the state of the world, so there’s plenty of insights in there, both about the US, about far-reaching trends like artificial intelligence, about smaller economies like the UK and plenty else besides. Here, then, are four things you need to know from today’s WEO.

The tariff impact is much smaller than expected… so far

The key bit there is the final two words. The Fund upgraded US and global growth, saying: “The global economy has shown resilience to the trade policy shocks”, but added: “The unexpected resilience in activity and muted inflation response reflect – in addition to the fact that the tariff shock has turned out to be smaller than originally announced – a range of factors that provide temporary relief, rather than underlying strength in economic fundamentals.”

In short, the Fund still thinks those things it was worried about six months ago – higher inflation, lower trade flows and weaker income growth – will still kick in. It just now thinks it might take longer than expected.

The UK faces the highest inflation in the industrialised world

One of the standard exercises each time one of these reports come out is for the Treasury to pick out a flattering statistic they can then go back home and talk about for the following months. This time around the thing they will most likely focus on is that Britain is forecast to have one of the strongest economic growth rates in the G7 (second only to the US) this year, and the third strongest next year.

But there are a couple of less flattering prisms through which one can look at the UK economy. First, if you look not at gross domestic product but (as you really ought to) at GDP per head (which adjusts for the growing population), in fact UK growth next year is poised to be the weakest in the G7 (at just 0.5 per cent).

Second, and perhaps more worryingly, UK inflation remains stubbornly high in comparison to most other economies, the highest in the G7 both this year and next. Why is Britain such an outlier? This is a question both Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey will have to explain while in Washington this week for the Fund’s annual meeting.

What happens if the Artificial Intelligence bubble bursts?

Few, even inside the world of AI, doubt that the extraordinary ramp up in tech share prices in recent months has some of the traits of a financial bubble. But what happens if that bubble goes pop? The Fund has the following, somewhat scary, passage:

“Excessively optimistic growth expectations about AI could be revised in light of incoming data from early adopters and could trigger a market correction. Elevated valuations in tech and AI-linked sectors have been fuelled by expectations of transformative productivity gains. If these gains fail to materialize, the resulting earnings disappointment could lead to a reassessment of the sustainability of AI-driven valuations and a drop in tech stock prices, with systemic implications.

“A potential bust of the AI boom could rival the dot-com crash of 2000 in severity, especially considering the dominance of a few tech firms in market indices and involvement of less-regulated private credit loans funding much of the industry’s expansion. Such a correction could erode household wealth and dampen consumption.”

Pay attention to what’s happening in less developed countries

For many years, one of the main focuses at each IMF meeting was about the state of finances in many of the world’s poorest nations.

Rich countries lined up in Washington with generous policies to provide donations and trim developing world debt. But since the financial crisis, rich world attention has turned inwards – for understandable reasons. One of the upshots of this is that the amount of aid going to poor countries has fallen, year by year. At the same time, the amount these countries are having to pay in their annual debt interest has been creeping up (as have global interest rates). The upshot is something rather disturbing. For the first time in a generation, poor countries’ debt interest payments are now higher than their aid receipts.

I’m not sure what this spells. But what we do know is that when poor countries in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa face financial problems, they often face instability. And when they face instability, that often has knock on consequences for everyone else. All of which is to say, this is something to watch, with concern.

The IMF’s report is strictly speaking the starting gun for a week of meetings in Washington. So there’ll be more to come in the next few days, as finance ministers from around the world meet to discuss the state of the global economy.