Connect with us

Published

on

Except on rare occasions – last year’s post-Liz Truss mini-budget episode being one of them – the bond market rarely garners as much attention as other financial sectors.

Yet these markets, where companies and governments come to borrow, are the foundations for the global economy.

In particular, the value of government bonds – and hence their imputed interest rates – have an enormous bearing on all our lives. Higher bond yields, as these interest rates are called, imply that we will all be paying more interest on that debt for years to come.

So the fact that these interest rates are shooting up rapidly around the world in recent weeks is no trivial matter. On Monday morning, the yield on US 10-year debt (typically seen as a benchmark for this market) broke through the 5% mark.

The UK’s own 10-year government debt is, at 4.7%, now above the highs it hit following last autumn’s mini-budget.

The 30-year UK government bond yield just hit the highest level since 1998. This is big stuff – and indeed the degree of yo-yoing in recent weeks has been unprecedented.

Something is clearly going on in these markets, but what?

This is where things get a little murkier, because it turns out there is no single, definitive explanation for these fluctuations. That comes back to a broader point, which is that the price of a given country’s debt is telling you lots of things at the same time.

It could be telling you about future expectations for where central bank interest rates are heading in future. At one and the same time, it could be signalling how much demand there is in capital markets for a given country’s debt. It could equally be caused by supply: if a government is issuing lots of debt, you might reasonably expect people to ask for higher interest rates to lend them that money.

And the explanation for the recent rise in bond yields could well be all of the above.

A lot of debt

It’s worth saying, before we go into it, that most of this shift seems to be centred on the US economy – but any rise in Treasury yields (those US government bonds are typically referred to as “Treasuries”) has a direct impact on the rest of the world. So it matters for everyone.

Anyway, let’s take the central bank thesis first. Up until quite recently, most economists and investors had been assuming that having risen sharply in recent years, official central bank interest rates would be cut quite rapidly next year – that the shape of the future interest rate curve might resemble the Matterhorn, that Swiss mountain which used to be on the side of Toblerone packages until they stopped making the chocolate in Switzerland.

But central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, have been at pains recently to signal that those rates might not be coming down quite so quickly.

In fact, says Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, the future path for interest rates might look a bit more like Table Mountain – a long, flat plateau of higher rates.

So that’s one part of the explanation. Another is that right now the US government is borrowing enormous amounts of money, partly to finance its Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act, as well as new Biden administration welfare policies.

The combined effect is, according to the Congressional Budget Office, to lift the US national debt up to the highest levels since the aftermath of WWII.

That’s a lot of debt – and while everyone’s known about these plans for some time, it’s possible investors are only now beginning to baulk at the prospect of absorbing all that debt.

Read more from business:
Housebuilder to cut 200 jobs and take profits hit

Former Telegraph owners resist bid to liquidate offshore company
Rail ticket office closures will go ‘too far, too fast’

Dangerous territory

The final explanation, which is considerably more speculative but also more unsettling, comes back to something else.

You may recall that after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations talked about doing what they could to ensure Russia would pay for reconstruction in Ukraine, including potentially seizing Russian assets held in Western nations.

No one is entirely sure how this would work, but at the recent IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, the group of seven leading economies (the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy) agreed to begin working on it.

As I say, no one is entirely sure how this should be done. It might be possible to confiscate some of the interest payments which might otherwise have been due to Russia, earned by Russian assets held in Europe.

But the G7 is also aware that this is dangerous territory, begging questions about the function of international law and the international monetary system.

It also sends a pretty clear message to other countries. If the G7 is content to start seizing Russian assets in their countries then what is to stop them doing likewise with, say, Chinese assets?

Perhaps you see where this is going. At the moment, China is one of the biggest buyers of US government debt, and there is evidence that it is slowing its purchases of US government debt.

Might that be because it’s somewhat spooked by the ongoing efforts to recoup money from Russia? Might Chinese authorities worry that something similar could or would happen to its holdings of US Treasuries if it invaded Taiwan? No one knows for sure, but this is another not altogether implausible explanation for those higher bond yields.

All of which is to say: it’s complicated. But it’s also quite scary. And higher interest rates mean higher debt repayment costs for this country in the coming years.

The ability of this government (or a possible future Labour government) to borrow to finance big projects in future depends on being able to borrow at a reasonable interest rate. And those interest rates are getting considerably higher.

Continue Reading

Business

Labour lures BlackRock chief Fink to flagship investment summit

Published

on

By

Labour lures BlackRock chief Fink to flagship investment summit

The boss of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, will attend the new government’s flagship investment summit next month amid suggestions it is struggling to attract large numbers of high-calibre international business figures.

Sky News has learnt that Larry Fink, BlackRock’s chairman and chief executive, will attend the 14 October gathering, which will be held at a prominent central London venue.

Mr Fink, who was also present at a similar event organised by the Conservatives in 2021, will be among the most influential global bosses to attend.

Among the others who have agreed to come are Margherita della Valle, the Vodafone chief executive, Hemant Taneja, CEO of technology investor General Catalyst, and John Graham, who runs the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, one of the world’s largest pension plans, Sky News understands.

David Solomon, boss of the Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs, will also be there.

The emergence of some of those attending comes as Labour battles suggestions that it will struggle to draw the 300 industry leaders it pledged in early August.

Sources said fewer than 150 companies had confirmed their bosses’ attendance, with just over three weeks until the event takes place.

More from Business

Roughly 100 ministers, metro mayors, officials and other government-connected figures are also expected to be present.

One insider insisted this weekend that “quality is more important than quality” and said the government remained on track to have 300 people at the summit.

That figure may ultimately be reached but comprising both the government and private sector delegations.

They questioned, however, why a formal numerical target had been set publicly when the summit was being staged at such short notice.

“It’s made us a hostage to fortune,” said one.

The event, which Labour vowed during the general election campaign to hold within 100 days of coming to power, is being seen as a key test of its economic credibility.

Whitehall officials are keen to announce investment deals worth tens of billions of pounds on 14 October, although whether they will hit this target is unclear.

Some corporate bosses, including the heads of Blackstone and JP Morgan, have declined the invitation, citing diary commitments.

Read more:
Trio of property giants oppose Cineworld rent cuts plan
National debt at 100% of GDP for first time since 1960s
Whitehall on alert as construction group ISG heads for collapse

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Those two companies are expected to send alternates to the event, with Blackstone being represented by Lionel Assant, one of its most senior private equity executives.

Until recently, the government had insisted that only CEOs would be able to attend, with their invitations not transferable, according to insiders.

Aviva, Barclays, BT Group and HSBC Holdings will be among the FTSE-100 companies represented by their CEOs.

The business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, told the Financial Times this weekend that details of the government’s industrial strategy would be set out before the investment summit.

That is expected to include the appointment of a chair for its Industrial Strategy Council, although it faces going into the event without an investment minister being appointed.

The summit will also be politically delicate given that it comes just a fortnight before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, delivers her first Budget – with higher taxes affecting many of those attending on October 14 expected to feature prominently.

The Department for Business and Trade declined to comment, while none of the companies contacted by Sky News would comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Trio of property giants oppose Cineworld rent cuts plan

Published

on

By

Trio of property giants oppose Cineworld rent cuts plan

A trio of property giants has lodged a protest against a radical financial restructuring that will see Cineworld imposing steep rent cuts on its landlords.

Sky News has learnt that British Land, Landsec and Legal & General Investment Management all voted against the cinema operator’s restructuring plan this week.

Cineworld has confirmed plans to close six of its UK multiplexes, but documents circulated to creditors show almost 50 others are in categories requiring landlords to agree to revised rent deals in order to ensure their long-term viability.

Although they carry significant influence in the commercial property sector, the trio’s protest will have no impact on the outcome of the company’s proposals, since its owners are now also among its largest creditors, meaning they can effectively force the deal through.

According to documents sent to creditors during the summer, 33 sites – categorised as Class B – “require a reduction of rent to ERV [Estimated Rental Value] Rent in order to place the sites on a viable long-term footing”.

A further 38 of Cineworld’s cinemas would be unaffected, while another 16 Class C1 and C2 leases require reductions to either turnover rent or zero rent in order to render them financially viable.

The documents added that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.

“The UK group did not have sufficient liquidity to make the June 2024 Rent Payment and required further funding from the US Group to meet this liquidity need.

“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis.”

Cineworld is being advised by AlixPartners.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Other cinema operators are now poised to step in to take over some of Cineworld’s sites.

The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.

Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.

Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.

It delisted from the London Stock Exchange last August, having seen its share price collapse amid fears for its survival.

Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.

Continue Reading

Business

Consumer confidence slumps following warnings of ‘tough choices’ in budget ahead

Published

on

By

Consumer confidence slumps following warnings of 'tough choices' in budget ahead

A long-running measure of consumer confidence has slumped to levels last seen at the start of the year following warnings of “tough choices” ahead in the looming budget.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index fell seven points in September to minus 20, with significant drops in predictions for personal finances and the general economy over the coming year.

The report’s authors suggested it was “not encouraging news” for the new government, which has made growing the economy its top priority.

Money latest: Millions already buying mince pies ahead of Christmas

But within weeks of taking the post of chancellor, Rachel Reeves – followed by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer – moved to warn of a legacy £22bn “black hole” in the public finances and said it would result in a painful budget on 30 October.

Among measures already taken include cuts to winter fuel payments, leaving up to 10 million pensioners up to £300 worse off, and inflation-busting public sector pay settlements.

Tax rises and spending cuts are widely expected in next month’s statement to MPs though The Times reported on Friday that a decision by the Bank of England to slow a programme of loss-making bond sales would leave Ms Reeves £10bn better off than she had anticipated.

It added that she was still expected to push forward with her budget plans anyway as a signal of her commitment to fiscal discipline.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor: ‘One budget not enough’

The latest snapshot on the public finances, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed net borrowing of £13.7bn during August.

Its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.

“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”

Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Data released separately on Friday showed a 1% rise in retail sales volumes during August in the wake of weakness, mostly blamed on poor weather, over the previous couple of months.

The ONS said that the increase was driven by supermarket sales, as demand for BBQ food and drinks rose due to the arrival of some sunshine over the key holiday month.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

UK economy flatlines again

It also credited discounting by clothing retailers.

The data chimes with the latest updates from big retailers, including Next and B&Q’s owner, which have spoken of weak demand for so-called big ticket items such as home furnishings and kitchens respectively.

GfK’s closely-watched survey showed expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months fell by 12 points to -27, while the forecast for personal finances was down nine points to -3.

Read more:
Winter fuel payments – are you still eligible?
Which tax rises could Labour introduce at the budget?

Commenting on its key measures, including the headline figure, consumer insights director at GfK Neil Bellamy said: “These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government.”

He added: “Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend.

“Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the budget decisions on October 30.”

Continue Reading

Trending