US spy agencies believe hospital blast caused by Palestinian rocket that broke apart after engine failure, officials say
US spy agencies believe the blast at a Gaza hospital a week ago was caused by a Palestinian rocket that suffered engine failure and broke apart into two pieces, with the warhead striking the hospital’s parking lot, intelligence officials said on Tuesday.
Speaking to reporters by phone, the intelligence officials said they had “high confidence” in their assessment that it was not Israel that fired the rocket, but were less certain which Palestinian militants fired the projectile on the evening of 17 October.
“We assess with high confidence that Israel was not responsible for the explosion at the hospital and that Palestinian militants were responsible,” one intelligence official said.
“We assess with low confidence that Palestine Islamic Jihad was responsible for launching the rocket that landed on the hospital.”
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US officials had indicated previously that Palestine Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, was likely responsible and Israel blamed the group for the blast. The militant group shares Hamas’s goal of destroying Israel but is smaller than Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip.
The evidence pointing to PIJ was based on intercepted conversations between suspected “Hamas affiliated militants” who appeared to be speculating about who was behind the rocket launch, the officials said.
“We can’t confirm who they are. We can’t confirm that what they are discussing in the intercept actually took place,” the official said.
The audio was not the same as that released publicly by Israel’s military previously and was vetted and deemed authentic, the official said.
The explosion at al Ahli Hospital has sparked anger across the Arab world, with protesters embracing the version of events put forward by Palestinian officials and Hamas – that Israel was responsible.
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What happened at the Gaza hospital?
The US assessment on the rocket was based on intelligence, “physical activity”, open source video and images that all pointed to a rocket blast and not a bomb dropped from an aircraft or artillery round used by Israeli forces, the officials said.
“The damage at the hospital is consistent with what we would expect to see from a rocket and inconsistent with the larger craters and broader blast effects that we would expect to see… from an air dropped munition or an artillery round,” the official said.
The explosion resulted in only light structural damage at the hospital and there was no observable damage to the main hospital building, which was consistent with a rocket armed with a smaller warhead, the official said.
Open source video that was geolocated and taken from four locations showed a projectile launched inside Gaza traveling northeast, and 10 seconds later, there appears to be engine trouble based on the intensity of the rocket’s plume, the official said.
Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon were among those that protested following the blast
Seconds later, there is a flash, with one object falling and then a second.
One of the videos analysed by the intelligence community was aired on Al-Jazeera television, the official said.
US intelligence assesses that the first object falling was the rocket motor, and the second was the rocket’s warhead, which caused a larger explosion, the official said.
“Based on those videos, our conclusion is that there was a catastrophic motor failure that likely occurred which separated the motor and the warhead,” the official said.
“The warhead landed in the hospital compound and that was the second explosion and a much bigger one.”
The official added: “We can’t rule out that new information is going to come to light that would change our assessment on this. But that said, we do have high confidence in our conclusions.”
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Israel denies hospital strike
Palestinian rockets often misfire and miss their intended targets, the intelligence official said.
“The failure rate for these domestically produced rockets is pretty high,” they added. “There are a lot of incidents in which they don’t make it out of Gaza. They land in the sea, they fail to reach their targets.”
“So that does fit within a longstanding, years-long pattern in terms of rocket performance,” the official said.
Intelligence officials said they did not have an estimate on the casualties caused by the blast.
“We don’t have any independent ability to verify the specific casualty count in Gaza,” the official said.
There was no evidence that the rocket was shot down by Israel’s air defence Iron Dome system, officials said.
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Arab governments have been sceptical of the US and Israeli assessment of the blast.
“Nobody is buying that narrative in this part of the world,” Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, told NBC News last week.
A senior intelligence official who took part in the briefing said American diplomats had asked for more information to share with governments in the region.
Although an initial assessment was made the night of the blast, US intelligence agencies compiled a more thorough analysis over several days taking into account relevant video and images, the senior intelligence official said.
NBC News is Sky News’ US partner network
Storm Shadow cruise missiles made in the UK and donated to Ukraine have once again been used to strike targets inside Russia.
The long-range weapons – which cost roughly £2m each – have been used to devastating effect in the Black Sea, sinking or damaging several Russian ships, and now against a chemical plant.
Last year, Ukraine’s allies lifted restrictions on Storm Shadows and other long-range missiles, meaning Kyiv’s military can use them against targets across the border.
Follow latest: Storm Shadow missiles used in ‘massive’ attack on Russia
A Storm Shadow missile system. Pic: Gary Dawson/Shutterstock
What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Storm Shadows are cruise missiles developed by the UK and France in the 1990s.
Launched from aircraft, they have a range more than 155 miles, manufacturer MBDA says, and can travel at speeds exceeding 600mph.
The missiles can be used with high precision for deep strikes while evading detection, the manufacturer says.
They have been used by the RAF and French air force and in the Gulf, Iraq and Libya, and more recently have been used by Ukrainian forces.
What sets them apart from some other projectiles is they use terrain mapping to navigate to their target, rather than relying just on GPS, military analyst Sean Bell says.
A Tornado GR4 with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Pic: Crown copyright
How have they been used in Ukraine?
Back in May 2023, the UK government announced it would provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles – the first country to do so.
Since then they have been used by Kyiv’s defenders to strike Russian targets inside Ukraine and also inside Russia.
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While operational details of their use do not always emerge, it has been reported Storm Shadows have been used against targets including military headquarters and ships.
Storm Shadows can likely be operated entirely from within Ukraine, though probably with the assistance of intelligence gathered by Western surveillance planes over international waters.
A police officer has been injured after a night of violent protests outside an asylum hotel in Dublin – with six arrests made.
Bricks were thrown and fireworks were discharged outside the Citywest Hotel – with glass bottles used as missiles and a police van set on fire.
A Garda helicopter was also targeted with lasers, and the police service says some of those on the streets were seen carrying garden forks.
Pic: PA
Pic: PA
Commissioner Justin Kelly added: “This was obviously not a peaceful protest. The actions this evening can only be described as thuggery. This was a mob intent on violence.
“We will now begin the process of identifying those who committed crimes and we will bring those involved in this violence to justice.”
It is the second night of demonstrations after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back – and water cannon was deployed at the scene.
A line of officers was preventing the protesters from approaching the hotel.
Police officers block protesters outside the hotel. Pic: PA
‘Those involved will be brought to justice’
Ireland’s premier, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, paid tribute to the officers who were on the frontline of the protests.
“There can be no justification for the vile abuse against them, or the attempted assaults and attacks on members of the force that will shock all right-thinking people,” he said.
Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said those involved in the violence will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
‘No excuse’ for violence
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.”
He said attacks on officers would “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed.”
The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
A police van has been set on fire and missiles have been thrown at officers as protesters gathered outside a hotel used to house asylum seekers in Dublin.
It is the second night of demonstrations outside the Citywest Hotel after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
A large crowd has gathered in the area and members of the Garda’s public order unit have been deployed.
Footage from the scene showed a Garda vehicle on fire as well as several protesters displaying Irish flags.
Many protesters carried Republic of Ireland flags
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back.
A Garda helicopter hovered overhead and a water cannon was deployed on the scene.
Ireland’s justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, said those involved will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest tonight must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.
He said attacks on gardai will “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed tonight.”
It was the second night of protest outside the hotel, which is being used as state accommodation for people seeking international protection. The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
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