Fed's Jerome Powell says strong economy could require rate hikes: 'Inflation is still too high'

Published

11 months ago

October 25, 2023

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The US economy’s strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday in remarks that appeared to push back against market expectations that the central bank’s rate hikes had reached an end.

“We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York.

For inflation to durably return to the Fed’s 2% target, it “is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening in labor market conditions,” Powell said.

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022 the unemployment rate has varied little from the current 3.8%, below the level most Fed officials feel is noninflationary, and overall economic growth has generally remained above the 1.8% annual growth rate Fed officials see as the economy’s underlying potential.

The Fed is “proceeding carefully” in evaluating the need for any further rate increases, Powell said, likely leaving intact current expectations that the Fed will leave its benchmark policy rate steady at the current 5.25% to 5.5% range at the upcoming Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting.

There is evidence the labor market is cooling, Powell said, with some important measures approaching levels seen even before the pandemic.

Powell also noted a number of fresh “uncertainties and risks” that need to be accounted for as the Fed tries to balance the threat of allowing inflation to rekindle against the threat of leaning on the economy more than is necessary.

Those include new geopolitical risks to the economy from the “horrifying” attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant Hamas group, Powell said.

“Our institutional role at the Federal Reserve is to monitor these developments for their economic implications, which remain highly uncertain,” Powell said. “Speaking for myself, I found the attack on Israel horrifying, as is the prospect for more loss of innocent lives.”

He also noted recent market-driven increases in bond yields that have helped to “significantly” tighten overall financial conditions.

“Persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy,” Powell said, with higher market-based interest rates, if sustained, doing the same job as Fed rate increases.

But the Fed chair also voiced what has become a lingering theme at the central bank: That despite steady progress on lowering inflation, the battle isn’t over, with further rate increases still a possibility and the duration of tight monetary conditions still to be determined.

“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said, citing the progress made since inflation peaked last year but also noting that one of the Fed’s main measures of inflation remained at 3.7% through September, nearly twice the central bank’s target.

“We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters,” Powell said. “The path is likely to be bumpy and take some time…My colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2%.”

The weeks since the Fed’s September meeting have been unusually turbulent, with worries about regional war in the Middle East rising and bond markets driving market interest rates higher, tightening the financial conditions faced by businesses and households somewhat independent of the Fed.

Data since the Fed’s last meeting also has shown US job growth reaccelerating unexpectedly, retail sales defying predictions of a slowdown and varying measures of prices offering inconsistent signals about whether inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s 2% target in a timely manner.

Powell’s appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. While a handful of other Fed officials have appearances later on Thursday and Friday before blackout begins on Saturday, it is Powell’s remarks that will set the tone for policy expectations heading into that meeting.

Should they leave rates unchanged in two weeks as is now widely expected, it would mark the first back-to-back meetings with no rate increase since the Fed kicked off its hiking campaign in March 2022.

A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists published on Wednesday showed more than 80% expect no rate hike at the next meeting, and most also believe the Fed is done with rate hikes even though a majority of policymakers at their September meeting projected one more quarter-point increase was likely to be needed by year end.

Many in the poll offered the caveat that if progress on inflation stalls out or reverses, the Fed would not hesitate to resume raising rates.

Business

Labour lures BlackRock chief Fink to flagship investment summit

Published

2 hours ago

September 21, 2024

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Labour lures BlackRock chief Fink to flagship investment summit

The boss of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, will attend the new government’s flagship investment summit next month amid suggestions it is struggling to attract large numbers of high-calibre international business figures.

Sky News has learnt that Larry Fink, BlackRock’s chairman and chief executive, will attend the 14 October gathering, which will be held at a prominent central London venue.

Mr Fink, who was also present at a similar event organised by the Conservatives in 2021, will be among the most influential global bosses to attend.

Among the others who have agreed to come are Margherita della Valle, the Vodafone chief executive, Hemant Taneja, CEO of technology investor General Catalyst, and John Graham, who runs the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, one of the world’s largest pension plans, Sky News understands.

David Solomon, boss of the Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs, will also be there.

The emergence of some of those attending comes as Labour battles suggestions that it will struggle to draw the 300 industry leaders it pledged in early August.

Sources said fewer than 150 companies had confirmed their bosses’ attendance, with just over three weeks until the event takes place.

Roughly 100 ministers, metro mayors, officials and other government-connected figures are also expected to be present.

One insider insisted this weekend that “quality is more important than quality” and said the government remained on track to have 300 people at the summit.

That figure may ultimately be reached but comprising both the government and private sector delegations.

They questioned, however, why a formal numerical target had been set publicly when the summit was being staged at such short notice.

“It’s made us a hostage to fortune,” said one.

The event, which Labour vowed during the general election campaign to hold within 100 days of coming to power, is being seen as a key test of its economic credibility.

Whitehall officials are keen to announce investment deals worth tens of billions of pounds on 14 October, although whether they will hit this target is unclear.

Some corporate bosses, including the heads of Blackstone and JP Morgan, have declined the invitation, citing diary commitments.

Those two companies are expected to send alternates to the event, with Blackstone being represented by Lionel Assant, one of its most senior private equity executives.

Until recently, the government had insisted that only CEOs would be able to attend, with their invitations not transferable, according to insiders.

Aviva, Barclays, BT Group and HSBC Holdings will be among the FTSE-100 companies represented by their CEOs.

The business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, told the Financial Times this weekend that details of the government’s industrial strategy would be set out before the investment summit.

That is expected to include the appointment of a chair for its Industrial Strategy Council, although it faces going into the event without an investment minister being appointed.

The summit will also be politically delicate given that it comes just a fortnight before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, delivers her first Budget – with higher taxes affecting many of those attending on October 14 expected to feature prominently.

The Department for Business and Trade declined to comment, while none of the companies contacted by Sky News would comment.

Environment

Mitsubishi Fuso cleans up, putting 89 electric garbage trucks to work in Greece

Published

2 hours ago

September 21, 2024

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Mitsubishi Fuso cleans up, putting 89 electric garbage trucks to work in Greece

The Greek cities of Athens and Thessaloniki are popular tourist spots, and those tourists are about to breathe a little bit easier – literally! – thanks to nearly 90 new electric garbage trucks from Mitsubishi Fuso.

The Daimler-owned Mitsubishi Fuso brand has been making big moves since export of its newest electric eCanter medium duty truck kicked off earlier this year. First expanding to Hong Kong, and now taking orders in the EU.

“Thanks to its compact dimensions and high chassis load capacity, the electric Next Generation eCanter is ideal for waste disposal companies that drive on narrow roads,” says Florian Schulz, Head of Sales, Marketing and Customer Services. “In addition, the vehicle is locally emission-free and quiet, so that garbage can be emptied early in the morning in densely populated areas. This makes it particularly suitable for municipal applications.”

One of the most important goals the cities’ governments had was to quiet down the garbage collection process. To that end, Greek body manufacturer KAOUSSIS has put a lot of development work into the upfit body to quiet the hydraulic and compaction actions. The company is calling its refuse body “the first of its kind,” creating a market advantage for the electric eCanter while meeting all EU technical regulations for operating waste disposal vehicles with standing personnel.

The hydraulic system employs proportional, electro-hydraulically operated directional valves that operate at a maximum pressure of 180 bar. KAOUSSIS says it’s specially designed for EVs, and is compatible with garbage bins between 80 and 390 liter (aka: really big) capacities. The lift also features a dynamic weighing system that records the weight of the waste with an accuracy of up to ±0.5 kg (about a pound).

“We have had a very close cooperation with KAOUSSIS for over 30 years,” says Antonios Evangeloulis, Director of Sales & Marketing of the Greek importer & general agent for Daimler truck products and services Star Automotive Hellas. “All the necessary tools, safety measures, technicians, training and certifications are in place and we are able to offer excellent after-sales support for these vehicles. Overall, it was an exciting project that we were able to realize together.”

Forty of the new electric refuse trucks are expected to be deployed by the end of November, with the balance expected to be delivered over the course of 2025.

Electrek’s Take

Mitsubishi Fuso eCanter; via Daimler Trucks.

Electrifying the commercial truck fleet is a key part of decarbonizing city truck fleets – not just here in the US, but around the world. I called the eCanter, “a great product for moving stuff around densely packed city streets,” and garbage is definitely “stuff.”

Here’s hoping we see more “right size” electric solutions like this one in small towns and tight urban environments stateside somewhat sooner than later.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Daimler Trucks, via Charged EVs.

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Politics

Lisa Nandy says Sir Keir Starmer ‘very sensible’ to accept football tickets worth thousands

Published

4 hours ago

September 21, 2024

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Lisa Nandy says Sir Keir Starmer 'very sensible' to accept football tickets worth thousands

Lisa Nandy has said Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to accept thousands of pounds worth of football tickets was “very sensible”.

The minister for culture, media and sport also said she had never accepted free clothes from a donor.

Speaking to Sky News at the start of the Labour Party conference today, the MP for Wigan said: “The problem that has arisen since [Sir Keir] became leader of the opposition and then prime minister is that for him to sit in the stands would require a huge security detail, would be disruptive for other people and it would cost the taxpayer a lot of money.

“So I think he’s taken a very sensible decision that’s not the right and appropriate thing to do, and it’s right to accept that he has to go and sit in a different area.

“But I know that he’d much rather be sitting in the stands cheering people on with the usual crowd that he’s been going to the football with for years.”

Ms Nandy also said while she has not accepted free clothes – joking “I think you can probably see that I choose my own clothes sadly” – she doesn’t “make any judgements about what other members of parliament do”.

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She said: “The only judgement I would make is if they’re breaking the rules, so they’re trying to hide what they’re doing. That’s when problems arise.

“Because the point of being open and transparent is that people can see where the relationships are, and they can then judge for themselves whether there’s been any undue influence.”

She asserted there had not been an undue influence in gifts accepted by senior Labour figures, adding: “We don’t want the news and the commentary to be dominated by conversations about clothes.

“We rightly have a system, I think, where the taxpayer doesn’t fund these things. We don’t claim on expenses for them. And so MPs will always take donations, will always take gifts in kind.

“MPs of all political parties have historically done that and that is the system that we have.”

She added: “I don’t think there’s any suggestion here that Keir Starmer has broken any rules. I don’t think there’s any suggestion that he’s done anything wrong.

“We expect our politicians to be well turned out, we expect them to be people who go out and represent us at different events and represent the country at different events and are clothed appropriately.

“But the point is that when we accept donations for that or for anything else, that we declare them and we’re open and transparent about them.”

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Sir Keir, Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves said yesterday they will no longer accept donations in the future to pay for clothes.

The announcement followed criticism of Sir Keir’s gifts from donors, which included clothing worth £16,200 and multiple pairs of glasses worth £2,485, according to the MPs’ register of interests.

The register shows Ms Rayner has accepted clothing donations to the value of £2,230.

Sky News also revealed the scale of Sir Keir’s donations this week as part of our Westminster Accounts investigation.

Sir Keir was found to have received substantially more gifts and freebies than any other MP – his total in gifts, benefits, and hospitality topped £100,000 since December 2019.