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The story we’re currently seeing unfolding in Israel and Gaza at present doesn’t seem to have much to do with economics. It’s about murders, terrorism and missile attacks.

But the economics lurks behind the scenes. It can’t explain all of what’s happening in the Middle East. It certainly can’t justify the horrendous attacks on Israel on 7 October – the worst massacre of Jewish people since the Holocaust.

Nor can it explain the intensity of the Israeli response, which has, according to Palestinian representatives, claimed more lives than were lost in the Hamas attack.

But, alongside religion, history, democracy – and the lack of it – economics is nonetheless an important part of the background story to the instability in this region.

Trustworthy data on the Palestinian Territories is hard to come by, but earlier today UNCTAD, the economic wing of the United Nations, published its annual stock-take of the Palestinian economy – perhaps the most reliable assessment of the situation on the ground. And that situation is stark.

Chart from Ed Conway, Sky's Economics & Data Editor, on the economics of the Palestinian territories.

It shows that as of last year, in other words before the recent attacks, the economy of Gaza was, by some measures, the most benighted in the world.

Gross domestic product per capita – the broadest measure of living standards – was a whopping 46% below its 1994 levels.

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In other words, in the space of a generation, even as most other countries around the world saw their living standards rise sharply, Gaza’s people have become dramatically poorer.

What’s particularly striking when you look through the data is the divergence between Gaza and the West Bank, the other main part of the Palestinian Territories.

The two regions’ economies had roughly similar GDP per capita up until around 2007, when Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip.

Chart from Ed Conway, Sky's Economics & Data Editor, on the economics of the Palestinian territories.

But look at what happened next. Economic growth in the West Bank meant that its economy is now considerably bigger and more prosperous than its 2007 levels.

The Gaza Strip, meanwhile, has seen its levels of prosperity crumple in a fashion rarely seen elsewhere in the world.

Chart from Ed Conway, Sky's Economics & Data Editor, on the economics of the Palestinian territories.

It’s a similar story if you look at unemployment rates in each of the regions: while they were relatively close up until 2007 (albeit that the Gaza jobless level was always a few percentage points above the West Bank level) in the post-Hamas period, the two lines have diverged dramatically.

The jobs market in the West Bank is (or was, as of 2022) tough. The jobs market in Gaza was hopeless.

Chart from Ed Conway, Sky's Economics & Data Editor, on the economics of the Palestinian territories.

Compare the Gaza Strip to other countries and you see just how much of an outlier it is.

While the unemployment rate in Israel is 3.5%, the comparable rate in the Palestinian Territories is 24% and the rate in the Gaza Strip is at 45%.

This is higher than any other country in the world – and note that the number is significantly higher for women and for young people.

There are plenty of explanations for this divergence. After Hamas took control of Gaza, Israel imposed a series of restrictions on the flow of people and trade in and out of the region.

The border is heavily policed. Entry and exit by air and sea is banned and there are only two crossing points towards the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

The majority of residents have been “locked in” for years, making it more like a prison than a fully functioning state.

Chart from Ed Conway, Sky's Economics & Data Editor, on the economics of the Palestinian territories.

Look at this chart of exports from Gaza and the West Bank and you get a sense of what this means in practice.

While the West Bank (and for that matter most other economies) have been able to grow their exports each year, as new businesses seek out opportunities to trade with Israel (the trade mostly goes to Israel), Gaza’s exports have essentially flatlined.

Of course, this does not cover the black market, but it’s the best picture we have available.

Israeli authorities say these restrictions are an essential part of policing Hamas and preventing terrorist activity. Trade is monitored and controlled to prevent weapons coming in and leaving.

That goes, too, even for items like fertiliser and steel tubes, since they could be used to make missiles. And they have more than half a point: Hamas social media accounts have gleefully boasted about how productive its home-made ammunition factories have been – despite these restrictions.

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Reality of Palestinians in Gaza City

These restrictions are not the only explanation for the collapse in Gaza’s economy: corruption is rife throughout the territory, with the upshot that much of what enters the country for the purpose of helping civilians is sometimes seized by Hamas leaders.

It is a sorry story, and the upshot is that Gaza has been a failing economy for many years, with levels of deprivation and poverty which have mounted to world-leading levels.

None of the above can explain, let alone justify, the attacks of October 7. In a parallel universe, Gaza could have been blessed with leadership which would turn the lines in the chart around – though that would also have been reliant on Israel lifting its various restrictions.

But numbers like these tend to make people feel desperate.

Gaza was already desperately poor before Hamas won its election and seized power. It has become significantly poorer, and significantly more desperate, in the years since.

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

US sanctions against Russia’s two largest energy companies, the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, are perhaps the most significant economic measures imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.

If fully implemented, they have the potential to significantly choke off the flow of fossil fuel revenue that funds Russia’s war machine, but their power lies not in directly denying Russia access to the tankers, ports and refineries that make the oil trade turn, but the US financial system that greases the wheels.

Ever since the invasion, the Russian government has proved masterful at evading sanctions, aided and abetted by allies of economic convenience and an oil industry with decades of experience.

Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy expresses relief at Trump move

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New US sanctions on Russia: What do we know?

While the West, principally the EU, has largely turned off the taps and stopped buying Russian oil, China, India and Turkey became the largest consumers, with a shadow fleet of tankers ensuring exports continued to flow.

Data from the Centre for Research into Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that while fossil fuel revenues have fallen from more than €1bn a day before the war, they have remained above €600m since the start of 2023, only dipping towards €500m in the last month.

None of that oil has been heading for the US, but these sanctions will directly impact the ability of the Russian companies, and anyone doing business with them, to operate within America’s financial orbit.

According to the order from the US Office for Foreign Asset Control, the sanctions block all assets of the two companies, their subsidiaries and a number of named individuals, as well as preventing US citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.

It also threatens foreign financial institutions that “facilitate transactions… involving Russia’s military-industrial base” with direct or secondary sanctions.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
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Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters

In practice, the measures should prevent the two companies from accessing not just dollars, but trading markets, insurance and other services with any financial connection to the US.

Taken in harness with similar steps announced by the UK earlier this month, analysts believe they can have a genuinely chilling effect on the market for Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s customers for oil in China, India and Turkey will also be affected, with the largest companies, state-owned and private, expected to be unwilling to take the risk of engaging directly with sanctioned entities.

Indian companies are already reported to be “recalibrating” their imports following the announcement, which came just a week after Donald Trump announced an additional 25% import tariff on Indian goods as punishment for the country’s reliance on Russian oil.

Read more:
Russia has responded with bravado to US sanctions
Trump imposes sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms

That does not mean that Russian oil and gas exports will cease. There are other unsanctioned Russian energy companies that can still trade, and ever since the first barrel of oil was tapped, the industry has proved adept at evading sanctions intended to interrupt its flow from one country or another.

Any significant increase in the oil price beyond the 5% seen in the aftermath of the announcement could also put pressure on the White House, which is at least as sensitive to fuel prices at home as it is to foreign wars.

But analysts Kpler expect the sanctions to cause “an immediate, short-term hiatus in Russian crude exports, as it will take time for sellers to reorganise and rebuild their trading systems to circumvent restrictions and ease buyers’ concerns”.

And Russian gas will, for now, continue to flow into Europe, where distaste for Vladimir Putin‘s imperial ambitions has not killed the appetite for his fuel. While the EU has this week imposed sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG), they will not be fully enforced until 2027.

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Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens – and children as young as seven – clash with police

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Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens - and children as young as seven - clash with police

At least 23 people have been arrested during a second night of violent disorder near an asylum hotel in Dublin.

Two police officers were taken to hospital with injuries sustained during clashes with protesters – including one who was struck on the head by a bottle.

A Sky News crew was caught in the confusion as police charged at crowds, who were throwing fireworks, stones and other debris.

Eyewitness: It got ugly – and fast

By Connor Gillies, news correspondent

The Telegram and WhatsApp group chats were alive with activity organising night two of unrest here on the edge of Dublin.

City chiefs halted trams and buses to this part of the Irish capital in a bid to reduce the number of mobs coming from other areas to fight police.

It got ugly, and fast.

I witnessed children as young as seven throwing bricks at riot officers, that were standing in rows 5ft deep.

Balaclava-clad thugs were spotted pulling and shaking bollards on the roadside in an effort to dislodge the tarmac to use as projectiles.

Pepper spray from fire extinguisher-size canisters pelted the eyes of those who dared to confront law enforcement.

Teenagers dragged a baby pram filled with fireworks lit their missiles as they chucked them at officers who were charging forward in a bid to get the hundreds of locals under control.

There is palpable, deep anger in this community after the alleged sexual assault of a 10-year-old girl near a large hotel housing asylum seekers.

The recent incident has fuelled a “get them out” pitchfork mentality that authorities, so far, appear to be struggling to get a grip of.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

It is the third night of demonstrations at the Citywest Hotel following an alleged sexual assault in the early hours of Monday morning.

A demonstration in the wake of the incident, which allegedly involved a 10-year-old girl, turned violent on Tuesday night. A police officer was injured and six arrests were made.

A 26-year-old man, who cannot be named due to rules that apply to all sexual assault cases in the Republic of Ireland, appeared in court on Tuesday charged over the alleged attack.

Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin.  Pic: PA
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Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin. Pic: PA

Police had earlier pledged a “robust response” if the violence continued.

Between 7pm and 8pm, hundreds of protesters faced off with around 40 uniformed officers.

The uniformed officers were replaced with the Public Order Unit, who were carrying plastic shields and additional body protection.

A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.
Image:
A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.

Protesters detained after stand-off

Hundreds of protesters had been facing off against the public order unit of the Irish police force along Citywest Drive.

While large parts of the crowd dispersed throughout the night, an additional public order unit was deployed to tackle those remaining at the protest shortly after 10pm.

A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA
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A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA

Several of those caught between the two units were tackled and detained as they tried to flee.

Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said “many have been arrested” and “more will follow” – and went on to praise officers who had responded professionally to “thuggish violence” in the area.

Mr O’Callaghan vowed that those arrested would be “charged, named and dealt with relentlessly” by the criminal justice system.

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Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

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Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia's two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies – and spoke of his frustration with Vladimir Putin.

In a major policy shift, new restrictions have been unveiled against Rosneft and Lukoil – as well as dozens of subsidiaries – due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. We encourage our allies to join us in, and adhere to, these sanctions.”

The move marked a significant change for the Trump administration, which has veered between pressuring Moscow and taking a more conciliatory approach aimed at securing peace in Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters

Trump frustrated with Putin

The US president has resisted pressure to impose energy sanctions on Russia, hoping that Putin would agree to end the fighting. But with no end in sight, he said he felt it was time.

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Mr Trump explained he has a “very good relationship” with his Russian counterpart, but felt he had to cancel their planned meeting as “it didn’t feel right to me”.

In a sign of growing frustration, he told reporters: “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it. But we’ll do it in the future.

“I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”

He also hinted that the sanctions could be lifted if the Russian president was prepared to cooperate in peace talks.

“We hope that they [the sanctions] won’t be on for long,” he said in the Oval Office. “We hope that the war will be settled.”

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Putin-Trump talks: The view from Moscow

Trump wants Xi to help with Ukraine

Ahead of a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Mr Trump said he would like Beijing to help put pressure on Moscow to halt the fighting.

“I think he [Xi] can have a big influence on Putin. I think he can have a big influence … he’s a respected man. He’s a very strong leader of a very big country. And we will certainly be talking about Russia-Ukraine,” he said.

Xi and Putin have formed a strategic alliance between their countries.

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Why Tomahawks are off the table

Ukraine denied Tomahawk missiles

However, Mr Trump warned he is not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Kyiv has requested.

He explained it would take the Ukrainians up to a year to learn how to use the “highly complex” weapons.

“The only way a Tomahawk is going to be shot … is if we shot it. And we’re not going to do that.

“It takes a year of intense training to learn how to use it, and we know how to use it, and we’re not going to be teaching other people.”

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