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US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.

That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.

The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.

“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.

Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.

The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.

Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.

Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.

Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.

“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

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Sports

Arch plays ‘his game’ as Texas rebounds with win

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Arch plays 'his game' as Texas rebounds with win

AUSTIN, Texas — A week after Arch Manning struggled in a loss at Ohio State, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian saw his quarterback bounce back in a 38-7 win over San Jose State and said this game showcased more of Manning’s style.

Manning matched a career high with four touchdown passes, going 19-of-30 for 295 yards, and added a 20-yard touchdown scramble, tiptoeing down the left sideline at the end of the third quarter.

“I thought today was a by-product of the week of work. He played aggressive throughout the week. He studied the game plan. He knew exactly what we were trying to do, and I thought today he played more of his style,” Sarkisian said. “He extended plays, used his legs, scrambles for a touchdown. That’s the style of player that he is.”

On several plays, Manning rolled out and found receivers. A few of his passes were dropped, with Sarkisian saying Texas “didn’t catch the ball great for him.” But Sarkisian was pleased that Manning made plays when things broke down.

“Him playing his game and not trying to play at somebody else’s style of game, I think it is important for him,” Sarkisian said.

Manning also threw a bad interception while under pressure, heaving the ball into double coverage from the Spartans’ 14-yard line. San Jose State defenders had a shot at picking off a couple of his other throws but failed to haul them in.

“A lot to work on,” Manning said. “I thought it was sloppy for my part. Can’t turn the ball over in the red area. I’ve got to play better. I think all around, it was a little sloppy.”

Manning started slowly, going 3-of-6 for 11 yards on his first two drives. But then, on a third-and-3 with 2:52 left in the first quarter, Manning found Parker Livingstone along the left sideline, and he turned it upfield for an 83-yard touchdown.

The touchdown throw was part of a stretch where Manning went 5-for-5 for 142 yards and four touchdowns, including TDs on three consecutive passing attempts — a 3-yarder to Livingstone, then 36- and 16-yarders to tight end Jack Endries.

“Anytime you can get points on the board after a slow start, it feels good,” Manning said. “Then, [we] finally got some rhythm. Defense started stepping up, too, so we’ve just got to start quicker next week.”

The Longhorns, who committed 12 penalties for 115 yards, have four new offensive line starters, and many new players at wide receiver and tight end. And even Texas stars such as edge rusher Colin Simmons (two penalties for offsides, one for roughing the passer) didn’t perform their best.

“I think as our team in general goes, this is not the best version of Texas football this season that we’re going to see,” Sarkisian said. “My foot’s got to get in their butt here on Monday morning. That’s unacceptable. And there’s a standard in which we want to play the game, and 12 penalties does not meet that standard.”

Manning said all week that he had to play better for Texas to win. He was encouraged by his performance Saturday, finding a way to make plays, but doesn’t believe he’s at his best.

Sarkisian said Manning is gifted with his dual-threat abilities, but his team is learning on the fly how to block for him while he’s scrambling or that he could throw while on the move.

“There’s things that we’re learning as we go as a team, but those are some of the growing pains that we have to work through,” Sarkisian said.

Those growing pains still resulted in an easy win at home Saturday. For Sarkisian, he said he can see the trust growing among his players, including Manning.

“The guys rally around him, you can feel it today on the sidelines,” Sarkisian said. “They really like playing with Arch, and that’s important.”

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Environment

MINI x Deus Ex Machina Skeg electric concept lightens the mood

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MINI x Deus Ex Machina Skeg electric concept lightens the mood

MINI has partnered with lifestyle brand, Deus Ex Machina, to develop this. It’s called the Skeg, and it’s a high-performance, racing-inspired electric concept car that’s sure to lighten the mood – by shedding fully 15% of its mass in the quest for speed.

One of a pair of exclusive, one-off concepts based on MINI’s John Cooper Works cars. The Deus Ex Machina Skeg celebrates MINI’s storied racing history with what the company calls, “a clean, minimal, and quiet rebellion,” that draws on materials, technologies, and philosophies from the world of surfing.

The electric MINI JCW Skeg is stripped to its essentials, with much of the steel and aluminum bits replaced with lightweight fiberglass to maximize acceleration while driving the minimalist aesthetic home. The end result weighs 15% less than the standard car – but makes the same stout 190 kW (258 hp) as the production car.

Surf’s up


MINI Skeg concept interior; via BMW.

The interior is stripped back to the barest essentials, reflecting BMW’s vision of a surf culture that prioritizes function over form. MINI claims the end result resembles a mobile surf shop, with fiberglass trays for wetsuits, specially shaped bins, neoprene seats, and other touches that “bring the surf culture into the interior.”

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For their part, the BMW and MINI styling team seems pretty proud of its minimalistic electric endeavor. “In this extraordinary collaboration … every single detail has been crafted with artisanal precision and expertise,” says Holger Hampf, Head of MINI Design. “This has resulted in unique characters that are clearly perceived as belonging together through their distinctive design language and use of graphics.”

The concept retains the production version’s 54.2 kWh li-ion battery pack, up to 250 of WLTP range with the production aero kit, sprints from 0-100 km (62 mph) in just 5.9 seconds. With 15% less mass, though, that should jump to more than 255 miles, with 0-60 times dropping below 5.5 seconds.

I dig it – but I’d skip the surf bits and just appreciate the raw composite, minimalist interior look for what it is. Take a look at the image gallery, below, then let us know what you think of MINI’s Skeg concept in the comments.


SOURCE | IMAGES: BMW MINI.


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Science

Asteroids vs Comets vs Meteors vs Meteorites: What Are They and How Are They Different From Each Other?

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Asteroids, comets, meteoroids, meteors, and meteorites may seem similar, but each plays a unique role in the Solar System. Asteroids are rocky remnants, comets are icy wanderers, meteors are shooting stars, and meteorites are fragments that survive the plunge to Earth.

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