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US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.

That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.

The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.

“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.

Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.

The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.

Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.

Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.

Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.

“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

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Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces $2.7M deficit amid special administration

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Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces .7M deficit amid special administration

Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces .7M deficit amid special administration

Thousands of savers face potential losses after a $2.7 million shortfall was discovered at Ziglu, a British crypto fintech that entered special administration.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

Read more:
Reeves won’t rule out tax rises

What is a wealth tax and how would it work?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈      

Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

Read more:
Reeves won’t rule out tax rises

What is a wealth tax and how would it work?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈      

Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

Continue Reading

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