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US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.

That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.

The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.

“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.

Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.

The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.

Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.

Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.

Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.

“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Who wins Game 6 of Stars-Jets?

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Who wins Game 6 of Stars-Jets?

The Dallas Stars were in position to win their series against the Winnipeg Jets in Game 5 on Thursday; instead, the Jets blanked them 4-0, extending their postseason by at least one more game.

That game is Saturday in Dallas (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+). Will the Stars punch their ticket to the Western Conference finals — and a rematch against the Edmonton Oilers? Or will the Jets force a Game 7 back on home ice Monday?

Read on for a game preview with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s game and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Game 6 | 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+

With a 3-2 lead in the series, the Stars are -380 to win, per ESPN BET; the Jets are +290 to take the series. Dallas is +325 to win the Stanley Cup, while Winnipeg is +2200.

Including the series that have been completed this year, teams that have led 3-1 in a playoff series are 23-1 since 2023 (the only loser was the Bruins against the Panthers in the 2023 first round).

Can Connor Hellebuyck buck his nightmarish road/home split this postseason? He has gone 6-1 at home in the playoffs, with a 1.73 goals-against average and .916 save percentage; he’s 0-5 on the road, with a 5.84 GAA and .793 SV%.

Kyle Connor has been a reliable source of scoring for Winnipeg, with 16 points in 12 games. His 1.33 points-per-game rate is the third highest in a single postseason by an American-born player (minimum 10 games played), behind Jake Guentzel in 2018 (1.75) and Brian Leetch in 1995 (1.40).

Mikko Rantanen leads the goal- and point-scoring races this postseason, with nine goals and 19 points. His newly formed line with Mikael Granlund and Roope Hintz has outscored opponents 7-2 in 108:34 of ice time together.

Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has gone 17-6 with a 2.03 GAA and .924 SV% (with one shutout) in 23 career postseason games following a loss.


Öcal’s three stars from Friday

No. 34 scored the first goal of the game in the third period, which counts as the game winner. It was his first goal against the Panthers — and first against any team beyond the first round — in his postseason career.

2. Maple Leafs shot blockers

The Leafs blocked 31 shots in this game, including some key moments late in the third period, preserving a shutout for Joseph Woll and forcing a Game 7. This was Woll’s first career postseason shutout, and he got lots of help from his friends.

Pacioretty was responsible for the insurance goal in the third period, his third of the postseason as the veteran continues his quest for his first Stanley Cup.


Friday’s recap

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 0
Series tied 3-3 | Game 7 Sunday

With a trip to the Eastern Conference finals at stake for the Panthers — and a continuation of the playoff run on the line for the Leafs — the two teams remained scoreless through two periods, with memorable saves by both goaltenders. At 6:20 of the third period, Toronto captain Auston Matthews scored his first goal of the series, and that would prove to be all the team needed for the W; Max Pacioretty‘s goal at 14:17 added some reassurance. After a Game 5 he’d like to forget, Joseph Woll stopped all 22 shots he faced. The two teams head back to Toronto for Game 7 Sunday. Full recap.

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Max Pacioretty backhands a clutch goal for Leafs

Max Pacioretty scores Toronto’s second goal of the third period to give them a 2-0 lead in a must-win Game 6 vs. Florida.

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U.S. beats Germany 6-3 at ice hockey worlds

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U.S. beats Germany 6-3 at ice hockey worlds

HERNING, Denmark — The United States blew a three-goal first-period lead before beating Germany 6-3 at the ice hockey world championship on Saturday.

Conor Garland‘s power-play goal 4:50 into the third period proved to be the winner as the Americans moved level on points (11) with the Czech Republic, trailing Group B leader Switzerland by two points.

Tage Thompson struck 1:42 into the game on a power play for his fourth goal of the tournament. Frank Nazar doubled the advantage before Drew O’Connor made it 3-0 on a rebound with 5:43 left in the first.

But the U.S. is making a habit of squandering leads. The Americans lost a four-goal advantage before prevailing 6-5 over Norway in overtime Wednesday.

Germany scored three times in the second. Defenseman Erik Mic’s goal 8:43 into the period sparked the rally. Jonas Muller scored from the slot with 5:17 remaining and Wojciech Stachowiak tied it at 3-3 less than a minute later on a power play.

After Garland’s go-ahead goal, Logan Cooley made it 5-3 with 3:29 to go and Clayton Keller scored into an empty net with 1:53 left. Garland had three assists.

Germany has nine points.

In Stockholm, Finland defeated Latvia 2-1 to stay third in Group A with 11 points. Latvia has six points in fifth.

Later Saturday, Canada plays Slovakia and Sweden meets France in Stockholm, while the Czech Republic faces Kazakhstan in Herning, where Denmark takes on Norway.

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James Comey: Trump says ex-FBI director’s seashells post ‘meant assassination’

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James Comey: Trump says ex-FBI director's seashells post 'meant assassination'

A former FBI director has been interviewed by the US Secret Service over a social media post that Republicans say was a call for violence against President Donald Trump.

James Comey, who led the FBI from 2013 until he was fired in 2017 by Mr Trump during his first term in office, shared a photo of seashells appearing to form the numbers “86 47”.

James Comey, then the FBI Director, in July  2016. File pic: AP/J. Scott Applewhite
Image:
James Comey later removed the Instagram post. File pic: AP

He captioned the Instagram post: “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.”

Some have interpreted the post as a threat, alleging that 86 47 means to violently remove Mr Trump from office, including by assassination.

What does ’86 47′ mean?

The number 86 can be used as a verb in the US. It commonly means “to throw somebody out of a bar for being drunk or disorderly”.

One recent meaning of the term is “to kill”, according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, which said it had not adopted this meaning of 86 “due to its relative recency and sparseness of use”.

The number has previously been used in a political context by Matt Gaetz, who was President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general but withdrew from consideration following a series of sexual misconduct allegations.

Mr Gaetz wrote: “We’ve now 86’d…” and listed political opponents he had sparred with who ended up stepping down.

Meanwhile, 47 is supposedly representing Mr Trump, who is the 47th US president.

Mr Comey later removed the post, saying he thought the numbers “were a political message” and that he was not aware that the numeric arrangement could be associated with violence.

“I didn’t realise some folks associate those numbers with violence. It never occurred to me, but I oppose violence of any kind, so I took the post down,” Mr Comey said.

Mr Trump rejected the former FBI director’s explanation, telling Fox News: “He knew exactly what that meant. A child knows what that meant… that meant assassination.”

Donald Trump Jr accused Mr Comey of “casually calling for my dad to be murdered”.

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed in a post on X that Mr Comey had been interviewed as part of “an ongoing investigation” but gave no indication of whether he might face further action.

The Secret Service is part of the Department of Homeland Security.

White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich said Mr Comey had put out “what can clearly be interpreted as a hit on the sitting president of the United States”.

“This is deeply concerning to all of us and is being taken seriously,” Mr Budowich wrote on X.

Another White House official James Blair said the post was a “Clarion Call (…) to terrorists & hostile regimes to kill the President of the United States as he travels in the Middle East”.

Read more US news:
Smokey Robinson under criminal investigation
Cassie challenged over Diddy ‘freak off’ allegations

Mr Trump fired Mr Comey in May 2017 for botching an investigation into 2016 democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, the White House said at the time.

While Mr Comey was the director of the FBI, the agency opened an investigation into possible collusion between the Trump 2016 presidential campaign and Russia to help get Mr Trump elected.

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