On 7 October – three weeks ago this weekend – Hamas launched a vicious, deadly and barbaric attack on Israel.
Hamas is no match for Israel’s military capability, and the world watched in trepidation as Israel mobilised over 350,000 reservists and prepared for swift and decisive military retribution.
However, three weeks later, despite regular threats from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli ground offensive has yet to materialise.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on houses
Why has Israel’s fiery rhetoric not (yet) translated into decisive military action?
Hamas might not match Israel’s military might, but its attack against Israel was well planned and conducted without apparent warning – despite Israel’s renowned intelligence services.
The atrocities committed by Hamas fighters on 7 October were inhuman and senseless and Hamas would have known that such action would provoke violent Israeli vengeance.
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By planning to seize hundreds of hostages, Hamas was planning to temper Israel’s response options, while also attracting the attention of the international community and the world’s media to the plight of the Palestinians.
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1:38
Israel ‘preparing ground’ for incursion
Gilad Shalit – an Israeli Defence Force soldier – was taken hostage by Hamas in 2006 and only released over five years later in 2011 – Hamas knows that hostages have value.
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Israel holds over 50,000 Palestinian prisoners – many of whom are linked to Hamas – and Hamas has demanded the release of all of these in return for the Israeli hostages.
But why delay Israel’s ground offensive? Given the detailed planning involved in the 7 October attack, it is very likely that Hamas would have been well prepared for an Israeli “invasion” – a Hamas trap could have left the Israeli military badly mauled.
Iran has been providing weapons to Hamas (and Hezbollah) for decades, so Israeli counter-attacking forces would have faced a deadly assortment of anti-tank missiles, mines and booby traps, all designed to inflict further damage on both the IDF soldiers and their reputations.
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6:41
IDF ‘preparing on all fronts’
‘Destroying Hamas’ is not a practical objective
Regardless, Prime Minister Netanyahu was angry and looking for a rapid military response. He promised that Hamas would be destroyed and that a ground offensive would be launched.
While his forces mobilised and military preparations were undertaken, an extensive bombing campaign was launched to tackle the huge Master Target List of known Hamas infrastructure, leadership and weapons.
However, military force requires a clear objective – “destroying Hamas” is a catchy soundbite for the media but is not a practical objective from a military perspective.
A bombing campaign might destroy the majority of Hamas’s military capability, but in so doing the Israelis have also inflicted huge casualties on the Palestinian population.
At the time of writing, Israel claims to have suffered around 1,400 casualties on 7 October, but since then the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Authority claims that more than 7,000 Palestinians have been killed.
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Civilians in Gaza are in desperate need – and are running out of key resources
A ground offensive would involve greater Israeli casualties, would take time, would exacerbate the humanitarian situation, and would inevitably increase the risk to those hostages still alive.
Increasing diplomatic pressure on Israel
And time is not on Israel’s side. Every day that goes by there is increasing international diplomatic pressure on Israel to curb its military response, and Israel is heavily reliant on Western support both economically and militarily.
And, a recent poll of Israelis showed that a minority support a ground offensive.
Despite Mr Netanyahu’s anger, even Israelis recognise that there is no military solution to the regional frictions.
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The dark shadow of Iran continues to exploit historical frictions to inflame passions, and the international community’s focus on taking sides has distracted from the core focus which should be on saving the lives of the innocent victims of this conflict.
There does appear a glimmer of hope that international pressure will temper Israel’s military options and although more “raids” will be expected, it looks increasingly likely that the more extreme Israeli military options are gradually being curtailed.
But, even when this immediate crisis has subsided, without political engagement, dialogue, negotiation and compromise, this will be nothing more than a temporary respite – perhaps days, maybe years – before the violence erupts once again.
Donald Trump and a leading figure in the Israeli army have suggested a ceasefire in Gaza could be close.
Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), told Israeli media that “conditions were created to advance a deal” to bring about an end to the conflict in the coastal territory, and the release of hostages.
In a televised address, he said: “We have achieved many significant results, we have caused great damage to the governance and military capabilities of Hamas.
“Thanks to the operational power that we have demonstrated, the conditions have been created to advance a deal to release the hostages.”
‘This week, or next’
It comes as the US president hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington DC on a prolonged visit this week.
Mr Trump said his meetings with Mr Netanyahu were focused “on Gaza for the most part”.
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He said: “I think we have a chance [of a ceasefire] this week, or next week.”
However, the US leader added: “Not definitely,” saying nothing was certain about the situation in Gaza.
Image: Donald Trump speaks, as Pete Hegseth looks on, during a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Pic: Reuters
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a bilateral dinner with Donald Trump this week.
Pic: Reuters
Hamas reiterates ‘keenness’ to end fighting
Meanwhile, Hamas has repeated its message that it is committed to the negotiations but warned of a number of sticking points despite the positive noises from senior Israeli figures.
In a statement, the militant group said: “In its keenness to succeed in the ongoing efforts, the movement [Hamas] has shown the necessary flexibility and agreed to release 10 prisoners.
“The key points remain under negotiation, foremost among them: the flow of aid, the withdrawal of the occupation from the territories of the Gaza Strip, and the provision of real guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.”
Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff previously told a cabinet meeting that the anticipated ceasefire would last 60 days and involve the release of ten hostages and nine bodies.
A source close to the negotiations told Sky News that the hostage release would take place in two waves during the 60 days and was conditional on the ceasefire.
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While the politicians talk, so many people come from around the world to try to get across the Channel on small boats. But why?
Why make such a perilous crossing to try to get to a country that seems to be getting increasingly hostile to asylum seekers?
As the British and French leaders meet, with small boats at the forefront of their agenda, we came to northern France to get some answers.
It is not a new question, but it is peppered with fresh relevance.
Over the course of a morning spent around a migrant camp in Dunkirk, we meet migrantsfrom Gaza, Iraq, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka and beyond.
Some are fearful, waving us away; some are happy to talk. Very few are comfortable to be filmed.
All but one man – who says he’s come to the wrong place and actually wants to claim asylum in Paris – are intent on reaching Britain.
They see the calm seas, feel the light winds – perfect conditions for small boat crossings.
John has come here from South Sudan. He tells me he’s now 18 years old. He left his war-torn home nation just before his 16th birthday. He feels that reaching Britain is his destiny.
“England is my dream country,” he says. “It has been my dream since I was at school. It’s the country that colonised us and when I get there, I will feel like I am home.
“In England, they can give me an opportunity to succeed or to do whatever I need to do in my life. I feel like I am an English child, who was born in Africa.”
Image: ‘England is my dream country,’ John tells Adam Parsons
He says he would like to make a career in England, either as a journalist or in human resources, and, like many others we meet, is at pains to insist he will work hard.
The boat crossing is waved away as little more than an inconvenience – a trifle compared with the previous hardships of his journey towards Britain.
We meet a group of men who have all travelled from Gaza, intent on starting new lives in Britain and then bringing their families over to join them.
One man, who left Gaza two years ago, tells me that his son has since been shot in the leg “but there is no hospital for him to go to”.
Next to him, a man called Abdullah says he entered Europe through Greece and stayed there for months on end, but was told the Greek authorities would never allow him to bring over his family.
Britain, he thinks, will be more accommodating. “Gaza is being destroyed – we need help,” he says.
Image: Abdullah says ‘Gaza is being destroyed – we need help’
A man from Eritreatells us he is escaping a failing country and has friends in Britain – he plans to become a bicycle courier in either London or Manchester.
He can’t stay in France, he says, because he doesn’t speak French. The English language is presented as a huge draw for many of the people we talk to, just as it had been during similar conversations over the course of many years.
I ask many of these people why they don’t want to stay in France, or another safe European country.
Some repeat that they cannot speak the language and feel ostracised. Another says that he tried, and failed, to get a residency permit in both France and Belgium.
But this is also, clearly, a flawed survey. Last year, five times as many people sought asylum in France as in Britain.
And French critics have long insisted that Britain, a country without a European-style ID card system, makes itself attractive to migrants who can “disappear”.
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1:48
Migrant Channel crossings hit new record
A young man from Iraq, with absolutely perfect English, comes for a chat. He oozes confidence and a certain amount of mischief.
It has taken him only seven days to get from Iraq to Dunkirk; when I ask how he has made the trip so quickly, he shrugs. “Money talks”.
He looks around him. “Let me tell you – all of these people you see around you will be getting to Britain and the first job they get will be in the black market, so they won’t be paying any tax.
“Back in the day in Britain, they used to welcome immigrants very well, but these days I don’t think they want to, because there’s too many of them coming by boat. Every day it’s about seven or 800 people. That’s too many people.”
“But,” I ask, “if those people are a problem – then what makes you different? Aren’t you a problem too?”
He shakes his head emphatically. “I know that I’m a very good guy. And I won’t be a problem. I’ll only stay in Britain for a few years and then I’ll leave again.”
A man from Sri Lanka says he “will feel safe” when he gets to Britain; a tall, smiling man from Ethiopia echoes the sentiment: “We are not safe in our home country so we have come all this way,” he says. “We want to work, to be part of Britain.”
Emmanuel is another from South Sudan – thoughtful and eloquent. He left his country five years ago – “at the start of COVID” – and has not seen his children in all that time. His aim is to start a new life in Britain, and then to bring his family to join him.
He is a trained electrical engineer, but says he could also work as a lorry driver. He is adamant that Britain has a responsibility to the people of its former colony.
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US President Donald Trump is putting “heavy” pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza, two sources close to the ceasefire negotiations have told Sky News.
One US source said: “The US pressure on Israel has begun, and tonight it will be heavy.”
A second Middle Eastern diplomatic source agreed that the American pressure on Israel would be intense.
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu gave Donald Trump a letter saying he had nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. Pic: AP
Netanyahu arrived in Washington DC in the early hours of Monday morning and held meetings on Monday with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser.
The Israeli prime minister plans to be in Washington until Thursday with meetings on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
Trump has made clear his desire to bring the Gaza conflict to an end.
However, he has never articulated how a lasting peace, which would satisfy both the Israelis and Palestinians, could be achieved.
His varying comments about ownership of Gaza, moving Palestinians out of the territory and permanent resettlement, have presented a confusing policy.
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2:36
‘Israel has shifted towards economy of genocide’
Situation for Palestinians worse than ever
Over the coming days, we will see the extent to which Trump demands that Netanyahu accepts the current Gaza ceasefire deal, even if it falls short of Israel’s war aims – the elimination of Hamas.
The strategic objective to permanently remove Hamas seems always to have been impossible. Hamas as an entity was the extreme consequence of the Israeli occupation.
The Palestinians’ challenge has not gone away, and the situation for Palestinians now is worse than it has ever been in Gaza and also the West Bank. It is not clear how Trump plans to square that circle.
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5:13
‘Some Israeli commanders can decide to do war crimes’
Trump’s oft-repeated desire to “stop the killing” is sincere. Those close to him often emphasise this. He is also looking to cement his legacy as a peacemaker. He genuinely craves the Nobel Peace Prize.
In this context, the complexities of conflicts – in Ukraine or Gaza – are often of secondary importance to the president.
If Netanyahu can be persuaded to end the war, what would he need?
The hostages back – for sure. That would require agreement from Hamas. They would only agree to this if they have guarantees on Gaza’s future and their own future. More circles to square.
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17:44
Trump 100: We answer your questions
Was White House dinner a key moment?
The Monday night dinner could have been a key moment for the Middle East. Two powerful men in the Blue Room of the White House, deciding the direction of the region.
Will it be seen as the moment the region was remoulded? But to whose benefit?
Trump is a dealmaker with an eye on the prize. But Netanyahu is a political master; they don’t call him “the magician” for nothing.
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Trump makes decisions instinctively. He can shift position quickly and often listens to the last person in the room. Right now – that person is Netanyahu.
Gaza is one part of a jigsaw of challenges, which could become opportunities.
Diplomatic normalisation between Israel and the Arab world is a prize for Trump and could genuinely secure him the Nobel Peace Prize.
But without the Gaza piece, the jigsaw is incomplete.