Microsoft is primed to enjoy its next cycle of growth. On Wednesday, the company started selling the Microsoft 365 Copilot artificial intelligence add-on for its Office app subscriptions targeting businesses.
The feature that appears in Word, Excel and other Office programs will cost $30 per person per month. That can add up to over $10 billion in annualized revenue by 2026, Piper Sandler analysts Brent Bracelin and Hannah Rudoff wrote in a note to clients earlier this week.
Microsoft aims to make the most of its commanding lead in the productivity software market, where Google has been working to gain share. Google, meanwhile, is selling the Duet AI enhancement for subscriptions to its Workspace tools.
Piper Sandler’s model assumes that 18% of eligible users will use Copilot. That might be aggressive, but “there’s going to be a FOMO element to this,” Bracelin told CNBC in an interview on Tuesday, using the acronym for fear of missing out. “If you’re in an industry competing against someone that has Copilot and you don’t, you’re at a disadvantage.”
Piper Sandler has the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft shares, which are up 41% this year, compared with a gain of 9% for the S&P 500 index, of which it’s included.
“Customers tell us that once they use Copilot, they can’t imagine work without it,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told analysts on a conference call last week.
After revealing plans for Copilot in March, Microsoft announced in September that it would first target the largest companies. On last week’s call, Nadella said 40% of the companies in the Fortune 100, a ranking of U.S. companies by revenue, were using Copilot in an invitation-only paid early-access program announced in May, calling out five clients by name: Bayer, KPMG, Mayo Clinic, Suncorp and Visa.
The preview was announced in May, less than six months ago. As a result, there isn’t a wealth of data on how Copilot affects performance.
“A lot of the conversations we’ve had even with the early-access customers is too short a timeframe to really look at the qualitative aspects of how they’re using the tools,” said Jason Wong, an analyst at technology industry researcher Gartner.
Companies need at least 300 licenses for employees to get access to Copilot. The challenge for Microsoft is to go beyond a small core of end users and land a wide deployment. That could take time.
Wong said Gartner encourages organizations to experiment with generative AI, which can create synthetic images and text with just a few words of human input.
“I think getting to 20% will be reasonable within two to three years for technologies like Copilot, because there’s going to be early adopters, and there’s going to be fast followers,” he said.
It might be easiest for companies to distribute Copilot to the mostly highly paid executives, whose time is precious, said Piper Sandler’s Bracelin. The tool could help them prioritize email messages and quickly understand documents.
But the top brass might end up causing headaches for tech support, Wong said. It might be wiser to first give Copilot to technically savvy employees who have drawn on generative AI for personal use and are familiar with shortcomings such as the potential to spout inaccurate information, Wong said. Microsoft acknowledges on its website that “the responses that generative AI produces aren’t guaranteed to be 100% factual.”
That hasn’t discouraged people from using ChatGPT, the chatbot from Microsoft-backed OpenAI whose language models are at the core of Copilot. After ChatGPT launched in November 2022, Microsoft and other large software companies moved quickly to incorporate similar generative features. Microsoft says prompts and responses in Copilot aren’t used to train language models and adhere to the company’s privacy standards.
Microsoft won’t only benefit from the new monthly Copilot fees. While setting up the tool, companies might end up using additional Azure cloud services, such as Purview for managing data, Wong said.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the opening ceremony of the Siliconware Precision Industries Co. (SPIL) Tan Ke Plant in Taichung, Taiwan, on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025.
An Rong Xu | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A day after Nvidia revealed it would incur $5.5 billion in costs related to canceled orders for the H20 chip, which the government said this week requires a license to export to China, the company said it abides by rules on where it can sell its artificial intelligence processors.
“The U.S. government instructs American businesses on what they can sell and where — we follow the government’s directions to the letter,” an Nvidia representative said in a statement.
Nvidia said the statement was in response to a House Select Committee focused on national security threats from China, which opened an investigation into Nvidia’s sales on Wednesday. The H20 was introduced by Nvidia after the Biden administration restricted AI chip exports in 2022. It’s a slowed-down version intended to comply with U.S. export controls.
Nvidia’s brief comment is an indication of how the company is going to defend its business in Washington, D.C., as its technology draws increased scrutiny related to national defense and security. The company’s stock price tumbled almost 7% on Wednesday.
Nvidia’s chips have the vast majority of the market for AI applications, and some were used by China’s DeepSeek to build R1, which upended markets in January.
On Wednesday, the chipmaker touted the taxes it paid, its U.S.-based workforce, and its role as a technology leader.
The company’s exports even help the U.S. fix its trade deficit, the statement said, directly addressing President Trump’s stated reason for introducing tariffs earlier this month.
“NVIDIA protects and enhances national security by creating U.S. jobs and infrastructure, promoting U.S. technology leadership, bringing billions of dollars of tax revenue to the U.S. treasury, and alleviating the massive U.S. trade deficit,” according to the statement.
One challenge for Nvidia is that the H20 was legal for export to China until last week, under previous Biden administration rules. But the House Select Committee said on Wednesday the sale of H20 chips for the past year was effectively a “loophole.”
“The technology industry supports America when it exports to well-known companies worldwide – if the government felt otherwise, it would instruct us,” Nvidia said in its statement.
The government is also investigating whether shipments of restricted chips to China went through Singapore, Nvidia’s second-largest market by billing address with just under $24 billion in sales in the company’s past fiscal year, according to filings.
Nvidia clarified on Wednesday that its Singapore revenue indicates sales with a billing address in the country, often for subsidiaries of U.S. customers.
“The associated products are shipped to other locations, including the United States and Taiwan, not to China,” Nvidia said.
In addition to Chinese export controls and the congressional investigation, Nvidia also faces additional restrictions on what it can export starting next month, under “AI diffusion rules” first proposed by the Biden administration.
Former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs testifies before a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing to examine claims of voter irregularities in the 2020 election, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, in Washington, U.S., December 16, 2020.
Jim Lo Scalzo | Reuters
A week ago, President Donald Trump signed an executive order targeting former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Chief Chris Krebs, and calling on the government to suspend the security clearances of any entities with whom he’s associated. The order specifically named SentinelOne, Krebs’ employer.
On Wednesday, Krebs announced his resignation from SentinelOne, a cybersecurity company with a $5.6 billion market cap. While Krebs said the choice was his alone, his swift departure is the latest example of the effect Trump is having on the private sector when it comes to pressuring people and institutions that he personally dislikes.
Krebs had served as SentinelOne’s chief intelligence and public policy officer since late 2023, when the company acquired his consulting firm.
“For those who know me, you know I don’t shy away from tough fights,” Krebs wrote in an email to SentinelOne staffers that the company posted on its website. “But I also know this is one I need to take on fully — outside of SentinelOne. This will require my complete focus and energy. It’s a fight for democracy, for freedom of speech, and for the rule of law. I’m prepared to give it everything I’ve got.”
Krebs served as the first CISA director from 2018 until he was fired in November 2020 after declaring that the presidential election, which Democrat Joe Biden won, was “the most secure in American history.” CISA is part of the Department of Homeland Security.
In his executive order on April 9, which took the extraordinary approach of going after a specific individual, Trump called Krebs a “bad-faith actor who weaponized and abused his Government authority.”
“Krebs’ misconduct involved the censorship of disfavored speech implicating the 2020 election and COVID-19 pandemic,” the order said. “Krebs, through CISA, falsely and baselessly denied that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, including by inappropriately and categorically dismissing widespread election malfeasance and serious vulnerabilities with voting machines.”
Trump directed the attorney general, director of national intelligence and “all other relevant agencies” to suspend “any active security clearances held by individuals at entities associated with Krebs, including SentinelOne, pending a review of whether such clearances are consistent with the national interest.”
The Wall Street Journal was first to report on Krebs’ departure from SentinelOne, publishing a story on Wednesday based on an interview with Krebs. He told the Journal that he was leaving to push back on Trump’s efforts “to go after corporate interests and corporate relationships.”
The demands on SentinelOne resemble campaigns that President Trump has waged against law firms and universities that he’s tried to strongarm into making significant changes in how they operate or else lose government contracts or funding.
SentinelOne, which uses artificial intelligence to detect threat and prevent cyberattacks, doesn’t disclose how much of its revenue comes from the government. But the company acknowledges in the risk factors section of its financial reports that it relies on government agencies for some of its business and can be hurt by changes in policy.
“Our future growth depends, in part, on increasing sales to government organizations,” the latest quarterly filing says. Specific to Trump, SentinelOne said that the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency, which Elon Musk is running, could lead to budgetary changes that “adversely affect the funding for and purchases of our platform by government organizations.”
SentinelOne CEO Tomer Weingarten told employees in a memo, also posted to the company’s site on Wednesday, that Krebs “helped shape important conversations and strengthened public-private collaboration.” The company previously said, in a blog post after the executive order, that fewer than 10 employees had security clearances.
“Accordingly, we do not expect this to materially impact our business in any way,” the post said.
In just 17 days after launch, Temu surpassed Instagram, WhatsApp, Snapchat and Shein on the Apple App Store in the U.S., according to Apptopia data shared with CNBC.
Stefani Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images
Chinese online retailer Temu, whose “Shop like a billionaire” marketing campaign made its way to last year’s Super Bowl, has dramatically slashed its online ad spending in the U.S. and seen its ranking in Apple’s App Store plunge following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on trade partners.
Temu, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, had been on an online advertising blitz in recent years in a bid to attract deal-hungry American shoppers to its site. With hefty spending on TV ads as well across Facebook, the company promoted clothing, jewelry, home goods and electronics at bargain basement prices.
The strategy was so effective that Temu topped Apple’s list of the most downloaded free apps in the U.S. for the past two years. Downloads of Temu on Apple’s App Store have fallen 62% in recent days, according to data from SimilarWeb, a digital data and analytics company. Ads for 50-cent eyebrow trimmers and $5 t-shirts that used to blanket Google search results and Facebook feeds have all but disappeared.
President Trump’s tariffs have upended Temu’s business model, along with its advertising strategy. Packages shipped from China are now subject to a tariff rate of 145%, while the de minimis provision, which allows shipments worth less than $800 to enter the country duty-free, is set to go away on May 2.
Temu and Shein, a fast-fashion marketplace with ties to China, plan to raise their prices in response to the tariffs. Both companies posted notices to their websites in recent days that warned they’ll be raising prices late next week.
“Due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs, our operating expenses have gone up,” Temu said on its site. “To keep offering the products you love without compromising on quality, we will be making price adjustments starting April 25, 2025.”
Sellers on Amazon’s third-party marketplace, many of whom source their products from China, have said they’re considering raising prices as they reckon with higher costs from the tariffs. Many businesses on TikTok Shop, the social media app’s marketplace, also count on Chinese manufacturers for their items.
Amazon launched a competitor to Temu last November, called Amazon Haul, which features items under $20 that are largely from China.
Read more CNBC Amazon coverage
The Temu app is now No. 69 in a list of the top free apps in the U.S., after consistently ranking in the top 10, according to data from Sensor Tower. Shein is currently at 42, down from 15 last month. PDD’s shares that trade in the U.S. have plummeted 22% this month, compared to the Nasdaq’s 6% drop. Shein is privately held.
Rival Chinese retailers have subsequently risen to the top of the app store ranks, including Beijing-based wholesaler DHgate, which surged to the No. 2 top free iPhone app in the U.S., and Alibaba‘s Taobao, which ranked No. 7. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that viral videos promoting their cheap products have spurred the download frenzy.
A separate analysis by SimilarWeb showed Temu’s paid traffic, or search, display and social media advertising that drove visits to its website, has dropped 77% since April 11. Temu’s paid traffic previously outpaced nonpaid traffic to its website by 2 1/2 times, Ben Parkes, a consumer goods and retail analyst at Similarweb, said in an interview.
Marketing firm Tinuiti found that 20% of U.S. Google Shopping ad impressions were bought by Temu on April 5. A week later, that number had fallen to zero. By comparison, Shein’s impressions remained at 17% on April 12, while 60% of impressions were bought by Amazon.
Representatives from Temu and Shein didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Temu was previously one of Meta’s largest advertisers, but it appears to have dramatically scaled back its spending on the platform. As of Wednesday, Temu is running six ads across Meta platforms in the U.S., a review of Meta’s ad library shows. Temu is running approximately 27,000 ads across Meta sites and apps globally, particularly in Europe and the U.K.
That could be troublesome for Meta’s advertising business, which has gotten a significant boost from the discount retailer. Advertising analyst Brian Wieser at Madison and Wall estimated that more than $7 billion of Meta’s $132 billion in ad revenue in 2023 came from China. Meta is scheduled to report first-quarter results on April 30.
E-commerce analyst Juozas Kaziukenas said he expects Temu to turn its ads back on in the U.S. at some point, but that the company appears to be shifting its dollars to other markets in the interim.
“It doesn’t mean Temu usage has dropped as significantly as the app did,” Kaziukenas said in an email. “But it means that new user acquisition is gone.”