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Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., center, greets a shopper at the company’s Fifth Avenue store in New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 22, 2023. 

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Apple is expected to post its fourth consecutive quarterly revenue decline when it reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Wall Street expects $89.28 billion in sales, which would mark about a 1% fall from the same quarter last year.

Apple stock is up about 32.5% so far this year, partially due to the perception of Apple as a fortress-like company with strong cash flow, popular products, and a globally-known brand. But analysts haven’t missed Apple’s lack of growth this year and want to see revenue increasing again.

They’ll want to hear about how the current quarter, which is usually its largest thanks to the holiday shopping season, is shaking out. Apple hasn’t given official guidance since 2020, but CFO Luca Maestri often gives a few data points on a call with analysts that point to where Apple thinks it is headed. They will also be paying close attention to any clues about how demand for the iPhone 15 lineup is faring.

The September quarter isn’t Apple’s biggest or slowest quarter of the year and only includes about a week or so of iPhone 15 sales. The December quarter is Apple’s biggest of the year by revenue — right now, analysts expect $122.97 billion in sales, or 5% growth, even versus a quarter last year that included an extra week because of fiscal calendars.

Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter period typically includes a little bit of back-to-school laptop and tablet spending benefitting its Mac and iPad divisions. But Apple warned in August that it expected Mac and iPad revenue to decline by “double digit” percentages, blaming difficult comparisons to a good quarter in 2022 when sales popped after prior supply issues.

The mood among analysts, especially in regard to expectations for the fourth quarter, is changing.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring says that there are four forces working against Apple in the December quarter: An unfavorable comparison, a strong dollar, iPhone supply issues, and a cautious consumer.

“Sentiment has turned more challenging for shares of Apple in recent days with increasing concerns around the lower demand for the iPhone 15 Series in China, as well as lackluster consumer spending momentum globally,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee earlier this week in a note to investors.

China

Hundreds of people lined up at a flagship Apple store in Beijing to pick up the new iPhone 15 when deliveries began on Friday.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

One data point from a market research firm tracking smartphone sales suggested that iPhone 15 sales started off slow in China this year.Wall Street analysts who cover Apple worry that renewed competition from Huawei in China could be making the iPhone less competitive in the company’s third-largest market. It could show up in Apple’s future guidance.

“Apple does have a China problem. I think when it comes to the phone, my sense is it’s going to be soft in China for the Sept. quarter,” Deepwater Asset Management founder Gene Munster said on CNBC earlier this week.

There’s some disagreement among analysts whether the Huawei competition is a temporary or permanent factor for Apple.

“Importantly, we believe the data suggests increased competition from Huawei in China is likely to be a headwind next year,” Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang wrote in a note last month.

Some reviews of this year’s new premium Huawei device suggest it is technologically inferior.

“We expect Huawei-related pressure on iPhone to be temporary and moderate into FY24 due to significantly outdated chipset on the Mate 60 series,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang.

During the quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported on new efforts from the Chinese government to ban foreign technology from government agencies, which many saw as a signal about the company’s changing fortunes in the region and raised the possibility that national pride or future government regulations could push Chinese consumers away from Apple.

“With Huawei’s unexpected launch of Mate 60 Pro and Chinese government’s ban of using
foreign phones for government workers, iPhone market share in China has been a big concern for investors,” wrote Citi analyst Atif Malik.

Global iPhone sales

In other regions, investors want to know if the iPhone 15 is selling like hotcakes, or if it’s not moving off store shelves as fast as previous years. Analysts call the strength of any given year’s iPhone sales the “cycle.”

Apple launched new iPhones in September with a lighter, redesigned titanium body, a longer telephoto lens, and a USB-C charging port.

“We are in the camp that [iPhone 15] is not a good cycle on demand weakness and elongation of replacement cycles,” Barclays analyst Tim Long wrote.

While analysts track ship times on Apple’s website and third-party estimates for iPhone sales, there’s no substitute for color from Apple CEO Tim Cook or sales numbers, either from the week or so the iPhone 15 was on sale in September or through its unofficial guidance for the December quarter.

Another factor is that some analysts are pointing to supply constraints on some iPhones, particularly the higher-end and more expensive “Pro” models which could push some sales out of the December quarter and into the January quarter.

“However, we are more cautious on the December quarter given iPhone supply shortages and uneven consumer spending, and believe Apple will guide to a revenue range that is both below normal seasonality and consensus expectations,” wrote Woodring, the Morgan Stanley analyst.

Estimates, the Mac, and Services

One business line that is expected to be in rough shape this quarter is Apple’s Mac business. Analysts expect $8.5 billion in sales, which would be a 26% drop from last year. Apple executives could focus on the fact it just released new MacBooks with chips on Oct. 30 with new chips to stoke more interest, analysts say.

One bright spot is expected to be Apple’s services business, even as the Google trial in Washington DC highlights how much of that is from Google paying Apple to be the default search engine on iPhones, and puts that reportedly $19 billion per year deal at risk over antitrust. Apple is expected to report $21.42 billion in services revenue, offsetting some weak hardware revenue, and which would be an 11% year-over-year increase.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, per LSEG, formerly Refinitiv, estimates:

  • Revenue: $89.28 billion
  • EPS: $1.39

Here’s what to expect from the company’s product lines, per Street Account estimates:

  • iPhone revenue: $44 billion
  • iPad revenue: $6.14 billion
  • Mac revenue: $8.5 billion
  • Other products: $9.4 billion
  • Services: $21.42 billion

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Reddit soars after announcing OpenAI deal that allows use of its data for training AI models

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Reddit soars after announcing OpenAI deal that allows use of its data for training AI models

The trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange prepares for the social media platform Reddit’s initial public offering in New York City on March 21, 2024.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Reddit shares surged 11% in extended trading on Thursday after the social media company announced a partnership with OpenAI that will allow the ChatGPT maker to train its artificial intelligence models on Reddit content.

As part of the deal, OpenAI will gain access to Reddit’s Data application programming interface, or API, “which provides real-time, structured, and unique content from Reddit,” according to a release.

In exchange, Reddit will begin offering certain AI features to users and moderators, powered by OpenAI, which will also become a Reddit advertising partner. Google announced a similar partnership with Reddit in February, allowing the company to train its AI models, such as Gemini, on Reddit content via access to the platform’s API.

“Reddit has become one of the internet’s largest open archives of authentic, relevant, and always up to date human conversations about anything and everything,” CEO Steve Huffman said in Thursday’s release. “Including it in ChatGPT upholds our belief in a connected internet, helps people find more or what they’re looking for, and helps new audiences find community on Reddit.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a former board member and major shareholder in Reddit, with a stake valued at about $750 million after Thursday’s pop. OpenAI Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap spearheaded the deal, which was approved by the company’s board, the release said.

Earlier this week, OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface, the company’s latest effort to expand use of its popular chatbot. The update brings GPT-4 to everyone, including OpenAI’s free users, Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati said Monday in a livestreamed event.

Murati said the new model, GPT-4o, is “much faster,” with improved capabilities in text, video and audio. OpenAI said it eventually plans to allow users to video chat with ChatGPT.

For Reddit, the deal provides another spark following a rally on Monday and Tuesday tied to a broader surge in so-called meme stocks such as GameStop. Reddit, which went public in March and reached a record close a few days after its initial public offering, is back to trading near its high of $65.11.

WATCH: OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist leaving company

OpenAI Co-Founder and Chief Scientist leaving company

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After Adobe collapse, Figma deal allows employees to sell shares at $12.5 billion valuation

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After Adobe collapse, Figma deal allows employees to sell shares at .5 billion valuation

Dylan Field, co-founder and CEO of Figma, speaks at the startup’s Config conference in San Francisco on May 10, 2022.

Figma

Figma, a cloud-based design tool company, said Thursday it will allow investors, including current and former employees, to sell their shares in a tender offer that values the company at $12.5 billion.

That’s up 25% from the valuation at which the company fundraised in 2021, but below the $20 billion acquisition offer Adobe made in 2022. Adobe and Figma called off the planned acquisition in December following regulatory scrutiny.

The San Francisco-based startup expects the size of the tender to be between $600 million and $900 million, with support from more than 25 current and new investors. A16z, Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins are participating in the offer.

Figma is used by tens of thousands of employees inside Microsoft, which spends millions per year on its deployment. GoogleOracle and Salesforce also use the company’s software.

In June 2021, during the heyday of mega financings, Figma was valued at $10 billion in a funding round that included participation from Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global. That was before the 2022 market plunge sent many cloud stocks down by more than half and largely halted pre-IPO rounds.

Adobe initially said acquiring Figma would be a natural complement to the company’s portfolio, writing in the original announcement that “the combination of Adobe and Figma will usher in a new era of collaborative creativity.” In December, a regulatory filing said Adobe would pay Figma a $1 billion breakup fee.

— CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

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Meta slapped with child safety probe under sweeping EU tech law

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Meta slapped with child safety probe under sweeping EU tech law

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

Facebook parent company Meta on Thursday was hit with a major investigation from the European Union into alleged breaches of the bloc’s strict online content law over child safety risks.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, said in a statement that it is investigating whether the social media giant’s Facebook and Instagram platforms “may stimulate behavioural addictions in children, as well as create so-called ‘rabbit-hole effects’.”

The Commission added that it is concerned about age verifications on Meta’s platforms, as well as privacy risks linked to the company’s recommendation algorithms.

“We want young people to have safe, age-appropriate experiences online and have spent a decade developing more than 50 tools and policies designed to protect them,” a Meta spokesperson told CNBC by email.

“This is a challenge the whole industry is facing, and we look forward to sharing details of our work with the European Commission.”

The Commission said that its decision to initiate an investigation comes of the back of a preliminary analysis of risk assessment report provided by Meta in September 2023.

Thierry Breton, the EU’s commissioner for internal market, said in a statement that the regulator is “not convinced [that Meta] has done enough to comply with the DSA obligations to mitigate the risks of negative effects to the physical and mental health of young Europeans on its platforms.”

The EU said it will carry out an in-depth investigation into Meta’s child protection measures “as a matter of priority.” The bloc can continue to gather evidence via requests for information, interviews, or inspections.

The initiation of a DSA probe allows the EU to take further enforcement steps, including interim measures and non-compliance decisions, the Commission said. The Commission added it can also consider commitments made by Meta to remedy its concerns.

Meta and fellow U.S. tech giants have been increasingly finding themselves in the spotlight of EU scrutiny since the introduction of the bloc’s landmark Digital Services Act, a ground-breaking law from the European Commission seeking to tackle harmful content.

Under the EU’s DSA, companies can be fined up to 6% of their global annual revenues for violations. The bloc is yet to issue fines to any tech giants under its new law.

In December 2023, the EU opened infringement proceedings into X, the company previously known as Twitter, over suspected failure to combat content disinformation and manipulation.

The Commission is also investigating Meta over alleged infringements of the DSA related to its handling of election disinformation.

In April, the bloc launched a probe into the firm and said it’s concerned Meta hasn’t done enough to combat disinformation ahead of upcoming European Parliament elections.

The EU is not the only authority taking action against Meta over child safety concerns.

In the U.S., the attorney general of New Mexico is suing the firm over allegations that Facebook and Instagram enabled child sexual abuse, solicitation, and trafficking.

A Meta spokesperson at the time said that the company deploys “sophisticated technology” and takes other preventive steps to root out predators.

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