EV sales still rising at 22.3% in CA, Tesla cedes lead back to Toyota
EV sales continue to rise steadily in California, reaching a record 22.3% market share in Q3. But Tesla has returned to its position as second-best selling brand in the state, behind longtime leader Toyota, after briefly eclipsing the brand last quarter.
The California New Car Dealers’ Association releases its “California Auto Outlook” each quarter, breaking down trends in the auto industry for the previous quarter. It’s out with its new Q3 report today and we’re going to break it down for some insights.
As has been the trend for the last several years, EV sales continued to rise in California. They started the year at 20.5% in Q1, then 21.8% in Q2, and 22.3% in Q3. So this quarter’s rise was a little slower than the last, but still a new record in the state.
It means that California will likely exit the year with a BEV run rate of around 23%, which is slightly down from our expectation of around 25%+. But still significantly up from the 9% of 2021 and 17% of 2022. And pure-ICE market share has dropped in the same timeframe, to 64.6% YTD in 2023 from 71.6% in 2022.
Comparatively, the US had an EV market share of 7.9% in Q3, putting California EV sales about 3x higher than the country’s average (especially if you take California out of the national data, as the state pulls the national average up).
Accounting further for Plug-in Hybrids, more than 1/4 of California’s new car registrations had a plug in Q3. Adding conventional hybrids and fuel cell vehicles to the mix, more than 1/3 – 37.3% – are “alternative fuel vehicles.”
Hybrid and EV sales continued to rise in Q3, but plug-in hybrid sales continued to hover around 3%.
Total new EV registrations actually dropped in California in Q3 as compared to Q2, with 100,597 new EVs registered versus 103,061 in the previous quarter. But overall auto sales dropped by a larger amount, meaning EVs were a higher share of sold vehicles. This is due to the seasonality of car sales – compared to Q3 of last year, overall auto sales are up 21.1%, and BEV sales are up 56.3%.
But one interesting battle being fought in California recently is between Toyota and Tesla for top dog in the leading state for EV adoption and in the state of Tesla’s birth. Toyota has long held the position as #1 brand, and the Toyota Camry had been the best-selling vehicle in California in many years until the Model 3 (and then the Model Y) unseated it. This has earned the Model 3 the nickname “California Camry” based on how common it is on CA roads.
While Tesla had unseated Toyota for the best-selling model, Toyota still maintained position of top-selling brand, as the latter sells a much broader base of models compared to Tesla’s smaller set of model offerings. But in Q2, we noticed that Tesla had narrowly outsold Toyota for the first time, based on the incredible strength of Model 3 and Model Y sales, which were (and remain) the best-selling models in the state by a ridiculous margin.
But in Q3, Toyota came back and earned the top spot again. Toyota sold 70,314 vehicles (compared to 67,482 in Q2) and Tesla sold 60,061 (compared to 69,212 in Q2). This is in keeping with Tesla’s overall down quarter in deliveries, though sales still improved significantly compared to Q3 of last year.
As a result, Toyota is now ahead of Tesla by about 20,000 vehicles year-to-date, meaning that Tesla is unlikely to become the best-selling brand for all of 2023. But the company is still comfortably in second-place, with about a 50,000 vehicle advantage over Honda year-to-date.
And Tesla still dominates the best-selling vehicle list and nobody else even close, at 106,398 and 66,698 units each so far this year. The Toyota RAV4 and Camry are running so far back that they may as well be in a different race, at 40,622 and 39,293 units each.
Other quick insights from the report include: continued strong sales growth for Rivian, which has the largest percent increase year-to-date at 176.8%; a new breakdown of top-selling BEV and PHEV sales which shows the Wrangler 4xe to be the fourth-most-popular vehicle with a plug in the state, behind Model Y/3 and the Chevy Bolt; BEV share of 25.7% YTD in Northern California, as compared to 21.1% in Southern California (pick up the pace IE, OC and LA can’t carry everyone); and a 103% increase in sales of BEVs at franchised dealerships (namely, traditional auto companies) year-to-date, compared to just a 42% increase in BEV sales from direct sellers (namely, the EV startups).
Electrek’s Take
We like looking at this data each quarter because California tends to lead the rest of the nation on trends and adoption of new technologies, and this has always been the case in EV sales.
A couple years ago, California was down at 7% new EV sales, but the rest of the country was selling 2% or so. Now, the country is at 7%, and California is at 22%.
So if you want a sense of where the nation will be in a couple years, this is data worth looking at.
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The Rio Tinto Group logo atop Central Park tower, which houses the company’s offices, in Perth, Australia, on Friday, Jan. 17, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The mining sector appears poised for a frantic year of dealmaking, following market speculation over a potential tie-up between industry giants Rio Tinto and Glencore.
It comes after Bloomberg News reported Thursday that British-Australian multinational Rio Tinto and Switzerland-based Glencore were in early-stage merger talks, although it was not clear whether the discussions were still live.
Separately, Reuters reported Friday that Glencore approached Rio Tinto late last year about the possibility of combining their businesses, citing a source familiar with the matter. The talks, which were said to be brief, were thought to be no longer active, the news agency reported.
Rio Tinto and Glencore both declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.
A prospective merger between Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest miner, and Glencore, one of world’s largest coal companies, would rank as the mining industry’s largest-ever deal.
Combined, the two firms would have a market value of approximately $150 billion, leapfrogging longstanding industry leader BHP, which is worth about $127 billion.
Analysts were broadly skeptical about the merits of a Rio Tinto-Glencore merger, pointing to limited synergies, Rio Tinto’s complex dual structure and strategic divergences over coal and corporate culture as factors that pose a challenge for concluding a deal.
“I think everyone’s a bit surprised,” Maxime Kogge, equity analyst at Oddo BHF, told CNBC via telephone.
“Honestly, they have limited overlapping assets. It’s only copper where there is really some synergies and opportunity to add assets to make a bigger group,” Kogge said.
Global mining giants have been mulling the benefits of mega-mergers to shore up their position in the energy transition, particularly with demand for metals such as copper expected to skyrocket over the coming years.
A highly conductive metal, copper is projected to face shortages due to its use in powering electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage systems, among other applications.
Oddo BHF’s Kogge said it is currently “really tricky” for large mining firms to bring new projects online, citing Rio Tinto’s long-delayed and controversial Resolution copper mine in the U.S. as one example.
“It’s a very promising copper project, it could be one of the largest in the world, but it is fraught with issues and somehow acquiring another company is a way to really accelerate the expansion into copper,” Kogge said.
“For me, a deal is not so attractive,” he added. “It goes against what all these groups have previously tried to do.”
Last year, BHP made a $49 billion bid for smaller rival Anglo American, a proposal which ultimately failed due to issues with the deal’s structure.
Some analysts, including those at JPMorgan, expect another unsolicited offer for Anglo American to materialize in 2025.
M&A parlor games
Analysts led by Dominic O’Kane at JPMorgan said the bank’s “high conviction view” that 2025 would be defined by mergers and acquisitions (M&A), particularly among U.K.-listed miners and global copper companies, was coming to fruition just two weeks into the year.
The Wall Street bank said its own analysis of the mining sector found that the current economic and risk management environment meant M&A was likely preferred to the building of organic projects.
Analysts at JPMorgan predicted the latest speculation would soon thrust Anglo American back into the spotlight, “specifically the merits and probability of another combination proposal from BHP.”
Prior to pursuing Anglo American, BHP completed an acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023, bolstering its copper and nickel portfolio.
The company logo adorns the side of the BHP gobal headquarters in Melbourne on February 21, 2023. – The Australian multinational, a leading producer of metallurgical coal, iron ore, nickel, copper and potash, said net profit slumped 32 percent year-on-year to 6.46 billion US dollars in the six months to December 31. (Photo by William WEST / AFP) (Photo by WILLIAM WEST/AFP via Getty Images)
William West | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts led by Ben Davis at RBC Capital Markets said it remains unclear whether talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore could result in a simple merger or require the breakup of certain parts of each company instead.
Regardless, they said the M&A parlor games that arose following merger talks between BHP and Anglo American will undoubtedly “start up again in earnest.”
“Despite Glencore once approaching Rio Tinto’s key shareholder Chinalco in July 2014 for a potential merger, it still comes as a surprise,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a research note published Thursday.
BHP’s move to acquire Anglo American may have catalyzed talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore, the analysts said, with the former potentially looking to gain more copper exposure and the latter seeking an exit strategy for its large shareholders.
“We would not expect a straight merger to happen as we believe Rio shareholders would see it as favouring Glencore, but [it’s] possible there is a deal structure out there that could keep both sets of shareholders and management happy,” they added.
Copper, coal and culture
Analysts led by Wen Li at CreditSights said speculation over a Rio Tinto-Glencore merger raises questions about strategic alignment and corporate culture.
“Strategically, Rio Tinto might be interested in Glencore’s copper assets, aligning with its focus on sustainable, future-facing metals. Additionally, Glencore’s marketing business could offer synergies and expand Rio Tinto’s reach,” analysts at CreditSights said in a research note published Friday.
“However, Rio Tinto’s lack of interest in coal assets, due to recent divestments, suggests any merger would need careful structuring to avoid unwanted asset overlaps,” they added.
A mining truck carries a full load of coal at Glencore Plc operated Tweefontein coal mine on October 16, 2024 in Tweefontein, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.
Per-anders Pettersson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
From a cultural perspective, analysts at CreditSights said Rio Tinto was known for its conservative approach and focus on stability, whereas Glencore had garnered a reputation for “constantly pushing the envelope in its operations.”
“This cultural divide might pose challenges in integration and decision-making if a merger were to proceed,” analysts at CreditSights said.
“If this materializes, it could have broader implications for mega deals in the metals [and] mining space, potentially putting BHP/Anglo American back in play,” they added.
— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this report.
GreenPower Motor Company says it’s received three orders for 11 of its BEAST electric Type D school buses for western state school districts in Arizona, California, and Oregon.
GreenPower hasn’t made the sort of headline-grabbing promises or big-money commitments that companies like Nikola and Lion Electric have, but while those companies are floundering GPM seems to be plugging away, taking orders where it can and actually delivering buses to schools. Late last year, the company scored 11 more orders for its flagship BEAST electric school bus.
As far as these latest orders go, the breakdown is:
- seven to Los Banos Unified School District in Los Banos, California
- two for the Hood River County School District in Hood River, Oregon
- two for the Casa Grande Elementary School District in Casa Grande, Arizona
Those two BEAST electric school buses for Arizona will join another 90-passenger BEAST that was delivered to Phoenix Elementary School District #1, which operates 15 schools in the center of Phoenix, late last year.
“As school districts continue to make the change from NOx emitting diesel school buses to a cleaner, healthier means of transporting students, school district transportation departments are pursuing the gold standard of the industry – the GreenPower all-electric, purpose-built (BEAST) school buses,” said Paul Start, GreenPower’s Vice President of Sales, School Bus Group. “(The) GreenPower school bus order pipeline and production schedule are both at record levels with sales projections for (2025) set to eclipse the 2024 calendar year.”
GreenPower moved into an 80,000-square-foot production facility in South Charleston, West Virigina in August 2022, and delivered its first buses to that state the following year.
Electrek’s Take
Since the first horseless carriage companies started operating 100 years ago (give or take), at least 1,900 different companies have been formed in the US, producing over 3,000 brands of American automobiles. By the mid 1980s, that had distilled down to “the big 3.”
All of which is to say: don’t let the recent round of bankruptcies fool you – startups in the car and truck industry is business as usual, but some of these companies will stick around. If you’re wondering which ones, look to the ones that are making units, not promises.
SOURCE | IMAGES: GreenPower Motors.
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While some recent high-profile bankruptcies have cast doubt on the EV startup space recently, medium-duty electric truck maker Harbinger got a shot of credibility this week with a massive $100 million Series B funding round co-led by Capricorn’s Technology Impact Fund.
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for fledgling EV brands like Lion Electric and Canoo, but box van builder Harbinger is bucking the trend, fueling its latest funding round with an order book of 4,690 vehicles that’s valued at nearly $500 million. Some of the company’s more notable customers including Bimbo Bakeries (which owns brands like Sara Lee, Thomas’, and Entenmann’s) and THOR Industries (Airstream, Jayco, Thor), which is also one of the investors in the Series B.
Other prominent investors include Tiger Global, the Coca-Cola System Sustainability Fund, and ArcTern Ventures.
As for what makes Harbinger such an attractive investment prospect, Dipender Saluja, Managing Partner of Capricorn Investment Group’s Technology Impact Fund explains that, “Harbinger has demonstrated a remarkable ability to reach significant milestones far quicker than other EV companies … the market has been impressed by their ability to develop large portions of the vehicle in-house to drive down unit costs, while remaining capital efficient.”
The company plans to use the funds to ramp up to higher-volume production capacity and deliver on existing orders, as well as build-out of the company’s sales, customer support, and service operations.
“Harbinger is entering a rapid growth phase where we are focused on scaling production of our customer-ready platform,” said John Harris, co-founder and CEO. “These funds catalyze significant revenue generation. We’ve developed a vehicle for a segment that is ripe for electrification, and there is a strong product/market fit that will help fuel our upward trajectory through 2025 and beyond.”
The company has raised $200 million since its inception in 2021.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.
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