EV sales still rising at 22.3% in CA, Tesla cedes lead back to Toyota
EV sales continue to rise steadily in California, reaching a record 22.3% market share in Q3. But Tesla has returned to its position as second-best selling brand in the state, behind longtime leader Toyota, after briefly eclipsing the brand last quarter.
The California New Car Dealers’ Association releases its “California Auto Outlook” each quarter, breaking down trends in the auto industry for the previous quarter. It’s out with its new Q3 report today and we’re going to break it down for some insights.
As has been the trend for the last several years, EV sales continued to rise in California. They started the year at 20.5% in Q1, then 21.8% in Q2, and 22.3% in Q3. So this quarter’s rise was a little slower than the last, but still a new record in the state.
It means that California will likely exit the year with a BEV run rate of around 23%, which is slightly down from our expectation of around 25%+. But still significantly up from the 9% of 2021 and 17% of 2022. And pure-ICE market share has dropped in the same timeframe, to 64.6% YTD in 2023 from 71.6% in 2022.
Comparatively, the US had an EV market share of 7.9% in Q3, putting California EV sales about 3x higher than the country’s average (especially if you take California out of the national data, as the state pulls the national average up).
Accounting further for Plug-in Hybrids, more than 1/4 of California’s new car registrations had a plug in Q3. Adding conventional hybrids and fuel cell vehicles to the mix, more than 1/3 – 37.3% – are “alternative fuel vehicles.”
Hybrid and EV sales continued to rise in Q3, but plug-in hybrid sales continued to hover around 3%.
Total new EV registrations actually dropped in California in Q3 as compared to Q2, with 100,597 new EVs registered versus 103,061 in the previous quarter. But overall auto sales dropped by a larger amount, meaning EVs were a higher share of sold vehicles. This is due to the seasonality of car sales – compared to Q3 of last year, overall auto sales are up 21.1%, and BEV sales are up 56.3%.
But one interesting battle being fought in California recently is between Toyota and Tesla for top dog in the leading state for EV adoption and in the state of Tesla’s birth. Toyota has long held the position as #1 brand, and the Toyota Camry had been the best-selling vehicle in California in many years until the Model 3 (and then the Model Y) unseated it. This has earned the Model 3 the nickname “California Camry” based on how common it is on CA roads.
While Tesla had unseated Toyota for the best-selling model, Toyota still maintained position of top-selling brand, as the latter sells a much broader base of models compared to Tesla’s smaller set of model offerings. But in Q2, we noticed that Tesla had narrowly outsold Toyota for the first time, based on the incredible strength of Model 3 and Model Y sales, which were (and remain) the best-selling models in the state by a ridiculous margin.
But in Q3, Toyota came back and earned the top spot again. Toyota sold 70,314 vehicles (compared to 67,482 in Q2) and Tesla sold 60,061 (compared to 69,212 in Q2). This is in keeping with Tesla’s overall down quarter in deliveries, though sales still improved significantly compared to Q3 of last year.
As a result, Toyota is now ahead of Tesla by about 20,000 vehicles year-to-date, meaning that Tesla is unlikely to become the best-selling brand for all of 2023. But the company is still comfortably in second-place, with about a 50,000 vehicle advantage over Honda year-to-date.
And Tesla still dominates the best-selling vehicle list and nobody else even close, at 106,398 and 66,698 units each so far this year. The Toyota RAV4 and Camry are running so far back that they may as well be in a different race, at 40,622 and 39,293 units each.
Other quick insights from the report include: continued strong sales growth for Rivian, which has the largest percent increase year-to-date at 176.8%; a new breakdown of top-selling BEV and PHEV sales which shows the Wrangler 4xe to be the fourth-most-popular vehicle with a plug in the state, behind Model Y/3 and the Chevy Bolt; BEV share of 25.7% YTD in Northern California, as compared to 21.1% in Southern California (pick up the pace IE, OC and LA can’t carry everyone); and a 103% increase in sales of BEVs at franchised dealerships (namely, traditional auto companies) year-to-date, compared to just a 42% increase in BEV sales from direct sellers (namely, the EV startups).
Electrek’s Take
We like looking at this data each quarter because California tends to lead the rest of the nation on trends and adoption of new technologies, and this has always been the case in EV sales.
A couple years ago, California was down at 7% new EV sales, but the rest of the country was selling 2% or so. Now, the country is at 7%, and California is at 22%.
So if you want a sense of where the nation will be in a couple years, this is data worth looking at.
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In the increasingly crowded market for peer-to-peer payments, Venmo is showing momentum while Cash App has hit a rough patch.
The parents of both businesses reported quarterly results this week. PayPal, which owns Venmo, reported an earnings beat and kept its forecast for the year. Block, meanwhile, plummeted in extended trading on Thursday after the Cash App parent missed on revenue and issued disappointing guidance.
Venmo and Cash App are simultaneously competing to gobble up more consumers for their peer-to-peer offerings while also adding services like debit, credit and transfer services so they can actually make money from those users.
For PayPal CEO Alex Chriss, who took over the struggling payments company in 2023, monetizing Venmo is a key piece to his turnaround plan.
Venmo revenue jumped 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier, though PayPal didn’t provide a dollar figure. PayPal pointed to growing adoption of features like the Venmo debit card, instant transfers, and integration into online checkout. The company said monetization per user is improving and that Venmo continues to play a role in its broader e-commerce push.
Revenue at Venmo increased at twice the rate of total payment volume, which rose 10%, reflecting progress in turning engagement into profit.
During the quarter, PayPal added nearly two million first-time debit card users across PayPal and Venmo, and said Venmo debit card payment volume rose more than 60%. Monthly actives on the card grew about 40%, while Pay with Venmo volume surged 50%.
“We’ve leaned into Venmo and the investment is starting to pay off,” Chriss said on the company’s earnings call.
Block CEO Jack Dorsey struck a different tone on his company’s call.
Cash App posted 10% gross profit growth from a year earlier to $1.38 billion in the first quarter. PayPal’s gross payment volume, or a measure of money moving through Square and Cash App, came in at $56.8 billion, missing the average analyst estimate of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Dorsey acknowledged Cash App’s recent underperformance.
“I just don’t think we were focused enough and had enough attention on the network and the network density, and that is our foundation,” he said.
Dorsey noted that some users still don’t view Cash App as a true banking platform, in part because their experience with the app can feel limited or restrictive when trying to move or access funds. The company is promoting its lending program, Cash App Borrow, which has received approval from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and can now bring origination and servicing in-house.
“We of course want to deepen engagement with our customers through banking services and Borrow, and I have no doubt we will,” Dorsey said. “But at the same time, we need to make sure that we continuously grow our network, and that starts with peer to peer.”
Tesla (TSLA) has revealed the latest web of transactions between itself, Elon Musk, his multiple companies, and board members.
As a public company, Tesla has to report to its shareholders transactions between the company and its executives, board members, and other companies linked to them.
With a new SEC filing, the company has disclosed those latest transactions for 2024 and up to February 2025.
Here’s a list with my comments:
SpaceX is party to certain commercial, licensing and support agreements with Tesla. Under these agreements, SpaceX incurred expenses of approximately $2.4 million in 2024 and approximately $0.1 million through February 2025.
Tesla didn’t specifically disclosed what are those “certain commercial, licensing and support agreements”.
However, we do know that Tesla and SpaceX share a material science team and they have shared ERP systems in the past.
Tesla also pays SpaceX for the use of Elon Musk’s jet:
Since April 2016, SpaceX has invoiced Tesla for our use of an aircraft owned and operated by SpaceX at rates determined by Tesla and SpaceX, subject to rules of the Federal Aviation Administration governing such arrangements. Tesla incurred expenses of approximately $0.8 million in 2024 and approximately $0.04 million through February 2025.
These transactions have been reported every year between Tesla and SpaceX.
X is a newer addition to Musk enterprises and the CEO has pushed Tesla to spend on advertising on his privately owned platform.
It only amounted to about $400,000 in Tesla spending on X last year aboud only $10,000 this year:
X is party to certain commercial, consulting and support agreements with Tesla. Under these agreements, Tesla incurred expenses of approximately $0.1 million in 2024. As part of a multi-platform advertising campaign, Tesla also directly or indirectly purchased advertising on X, which totaled approximately $0.4 million in 2024 and approximately $0.01 million through February 2025.
Tesla only started to advertise in 2023, shortly after Musk bought Twitter, a platform that relies on advertising, but it has yet to really ramp up its advertising effort.
Instead, it relies on marketing.
xAI is the latest private Musk company that Tesla’s CEO is pushing to work with Tesla.
Based on Tesla’s new disclosure, xAI paid Tesla almost $200 million in 2024 and almost $37 million in the first two months of 2025:
xAI is party to certain commercial (including those for the purchase of Megapacks), consulting and support agreements with Tesla. Under these agreements, xAI incurred expenses of approximately $198.3 million in 2024 and approximately $36.9 million through February 2025. Approximately $191.0 million during 2024 and $36.8 million through February 2025 was incurred by xAI for its purchase of our Megapack products.
The vast majority of that was xAI buying Tesla Megapacks to power its data centers.
However, there are also a few millions not accounted for.
Musk has admitted to redirecting NVIDIA computers that were supposed to be used for Tesla’s super cluster in Texas to xAI.
Tesla also disclosed paying The Boring Company (TBC), a company privately owned by Musk, over $3 million in 2024 and $800,000 in the first two months of 2025:
TBC is party to commercial agreements with Tesla. Under these agreements, Tesla incurred expenses of approximately $3.6 million in 2024 and approximately $0.8 million through February 2025.
This is likely related to TBC building a tunnel to link the Cybertruck’s end-of-line at Gigafactory Texas to a loading lot.
Tesla also pays a security company owned by Musk to provide security services to the CEO:
We are party to a service agreement with a security company, owned by Elon Musk and organized to provide security services concerning him, including in connection with his duties to and work for Tesla. Tesla incurred expenses of approximately $2.8 million for such security services in 2024 and approximately $0.5 million through February 2025, representing a portion of the total cost of security services concerning Elon Musk.
These costs have greatly increased. In 2023, Tesla paid $2.4 million. It increased to $2.8 million in 2024 and based on Tesla having spent $500,000 in the first two months of the year, it looks like it could increase to $3 million in 2025.
Tesla also disclosed that it sold about $30 million worth of scrap materials for JB Straubel’s Redwood Mateirals to recycle:
JB Straubel is the Chief Executive Officer of Redwood. Tesla is party to an agreement with Redwood to supply certain scrap materials. Under this agreement, Redwood incurred expenses of approximately $30.3 million in 2024 and approximately $0.6 million through February 2025.
Straubel is a Tesla co-founder and long-time CTO. He left in 2019 to build a battery recycling and battery material firm, but he also more recently rejoined Tesla’s board – hence why transactions between his company and Tesla need to be reported.
Finally, Tesla disclosed that it paid $300,000 to Kimbal Musk’s company, Nova Sky Stories, for a drone show:
Kimbal Musk is the Chief Executive Officer of Nova Sky Stories. In 2024, we entered into a commercial agreement with Nova Sky Stories in relation to the production of an aerial show. Under this agreement, Tesla incurred expenses of approximately $0.3 million in 2024.
Kimbal Musk is on Tesla’s board and he is Elon Musk’s brother.
Electrek’s Take
I can admit that there can be interesting synergy between companies. When Musk was just leading Tesla and SpaceX, I had some reservations, but I thought it was feasible and some collaboration, like the material science team, made sense.
However, now that Musk is leading Tesla, SpaceX, X, xAI, The Boring Company, Neuralink, and DOGE, it makes no sense whatsoever. It’s too much.
And the synergy between them is often looking like a stretch. For example, the $3 million tunnel is ridiculous. Tesla should have simply better designed its EOL. The Boring Company had a ton of projects that never amounted to anything and it looks like Musk is keeping them busy with Tesla money.
Tesla sending its NVIDIA computers to xAI is also ridiculous. Musk’s excuse was that Tesla’s data center was not ready to receive them, but then he boasted about xAI being to deploy its own data center in a record time of just 3 weeks.
Why was xAI able to do it in 3 weeks but Tesla couldn’t?
Finally, Tesla giving Elon’s brother $300,000 for a drone show is also highly questionable.
Like Leo KoGuan said, “Tesla is a family business masquerading as a public company.”
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![ACT Expo 2025 – one step forward, two steps back for clean trucking [part 1]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/05/ACT_2025.png?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
ACT Expo is North America’s premier clean truck and transport trade show – and for 2025 it was bigger than ever, with more exhibitors and more, more capable battery electric vehicles than ever. The downsides? NACFE have scored with their “messy middle” messaging, and the return of “clean diesel” talking points.
The re-election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States has thrown the steady pace of electric fleet adoption – along with just about every thing else – into a state of confusion and disarray. Into that chaos, NACFE (the North American Council for Freight Efficiency) has thrown a positively progress-shattering bromide that may as well have been designed to distract attention from the proliferation of practical medium- and heavy-duty EVs, the rapid expansion of a comprehensive DC fast charging network, and the rapidly decreasing delta between the up-front costs of conventional diesel and battery electric offerings.
I’m talking about the phrase, “the messy middle,” which posits that, while we can all agree that electric vehicles and battery technology are the future, “we’re not quite there, yet.” The result is a series of observations that, while very timely in 2019, seem to disingenuously portray EVs as new technology today, while claiming that there are unanswered questions regarding battery costs and component longevity.
Never mind that next year will mark the (checks notes) twenty-ninth year of Toyota Prius production, and the thirtieth anniversary of the production launch of GM’s EV1, or that Volvo is on its third generation of battery electric semi, or that dozens of EV fleets have logged hundreds of millions of all-electric miles on their vehicles – never mind, in other words, that BEVs are in production now, ready now, in customer hands now, delivering on the promise of reduced TCO now … an EV may not be suitable for some fleets – and NACFE’s “messy middle” messaging is going to give a lot of fleets an excuse to buy one more round diesel-engined semi trucks to fill up with more diesel from Shell their favorite truck stops.
All that said, it’s catchy. Outside of NACFE’s booth or Shell’s panels I’ve heard the phrase “messy middle” repeated sincerely at least a dozen times over the last three days, and I have to admit that the alliterative lure of that particular little ear worm that, regardless of the sincerity of NACFE’s intent, is going to set the pace of EV adoption back at least the length of one Presidential term (give or take 100 days).
Moving on …
There was plenty of good stuff
Despite my ranting and raving against the whole “messy middle” messaging, there was an incredible amount of awesome, zero-emission, battery-powered goodness at this year’s ACT Expo. Too much, in fact, to jam into a single article (unless y’all like 5,000 word articles).
As such, I won’t even try.
Instead, I’ll use this post to give you a sneak peek at some of the stories I’ll be posting in the coming days, bringing you fully up to speed with all the latest and greatest new EVs, EREVs, and HFCEVs that commercial fleet buyers can place an order for today, and start putting the messy middle (and their backwards-looking competitors) behind them. So, check out the short list, below, then watch this space to see the links go live.
ACT 2025 News
- Zenobe arrives in North America
- Honda wants to sell you a fuel cell
- Hyundai opens up about its hydrogen semi
- ABB has figured out this whole charging deal
- Windrose gets real, and Wen Han signs my truck
- Volvo has the best deal going for commercial EVs
- New Mack electric trucks are coming, and one is already here
- The new autonomous terminal tractor from Kalmar is a next-level EV
Original content from Electrek; special thanks to ACT Expo.
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