Coal free by 2070? India’s push toward renewables won’t stop coal reliance for the next two decades
A worker pushes his bicycle under a line of cable trolleys transporting coal in Uttar Pradesh, India, on Nov. 19, 2021.
Money Sharma | Afp | Getty Images
There’s little doubt that India has made progress in its transition to renewable energy.
The country’s leaders have been optimistic about its path to net zero, making bold claims that 50% of its power generation will come from renewables by 2030, and 100% by 2070.
However, coal production continues to soar and reliance on the fossil fuel won’t end any time soon as India struggles to find other ways to cool homes down and keep the lights on.
“India will not be able to survive completely without coal and there is no alternative for India in the coming 10 to 20 years,” said Anil Kumar Jha, former chairman and managing director of Coal India — the world’s largest coal producer.
“If you are hungry and don’t have cake to eat, will you eat bread or die hungry? That is presently what India is doing,” Jha told CNBC. “We don’t have an alternative to generate that amount of electricity, and will have to depend on coal.”
Fossil fuels, mainly coal, continue to make up 75% of India’s power supply, making it “the only fuel that India has in relative abundance,” said Neshwin Rodrigues, electricity policy analyst at Ember, a global energy think tank.
A man rides a motorcycle along a road past the National Thermal Power Corporation plant in Dadri on April 6, 2022.
Prakash Singh | Afp | Getty Images
Effects from climate change have triggered more than 700 heat waves in India over the past five decades, driving up electricity demand as more households purchase air conditioners.
“India is presently witnessing a rapid surge in electricity demand, driven by the electrification of numerous households, the burgeoning economy, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, infrastructure development, and cooling systems,” said Sooraj Narayan, Wood Mackenzie’s senior research analyst of power and renewables in Asia Pacific.
“This heightened power demand necessitates a reliable, cost-effective, and consistent power generation source, which coal currently fulfills,” he highlighted.
Whether we like it or not, coal will continue to have a role to play in India.
Sooraj Narayan
Wood Mackenzie
Data from the International Energy Agency showed that electricity consumption in India from air conditioners increased by 21% between 2019 and 2022.
Nearly 10% of the country’s electricity demand comes from space cooling and this will increase ninefold by 2050, the IEA said.
Simultaneously, India’s coal consumption has rapidly increased.
The country’s coal production rose to 893 million tons in 2022 to 2023, a 14% growth from 778 million tons in 2021 to 2022, according to data from the Ministry of Coal.
Jha estimated coal production could reach 1,335 million tons in 2031 to 2032.
This raises the question about whether India will be able to reach its 2030 target of achieving 50% of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel sources. As of now, energy analysts don’t think it’s achievable.
“Coal remains a reliable fallback option for India to ensure consistent and dependable power generation, especially as it strives to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population and economy,” Narayan pointed out.
This could be the norm for India until after 2030 — when coal demand is expected to peak, according to Sumant Sinha, founder of Indian renewable energy firm ReNew Power.
“What we cannot afford as a country is essentially to shortchange our growth on account of a lack of power capabilities. Whether we like it or not, coal will continue to have a role to play in India,” Sinha told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on last week.
Unreliable renewables
Despite being able to produce cheap wind and solar energy, only 22% of India’s power generation is met by renewables.
All the analysts who spoke to CNBC agreed the country’s solar, wind and hydro energy capabilities are still unreliable as they are dependent on weather conditions and the climate.
“Renewable sources like solar and wind are inherently variable, relying on natural factors such as sunlight, wind and water availability. This variability makes them less dependable for meeting the nation’s burgeoning power demand,” Wood Mackenzie’s Narayan said.
A worker walks through the Tapovan Vishnugad hydropower plant project construction site in Uttarakhand, India, on Feb. 9, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The South Asian nation currently has around 180 gigawatts of installed renewable energy, and hydropower makes up half of that mix. However, more advanced infrastructure is needed to ensure it serves as a reliable alternative to coal in the future.
India experienced the driest August in more than a century when it received 36% less rainfall. Coal reliance that month grew by 13% compared to the year before.
“While India seeks to leverage hydropower to balance its grid, this source of renewable energy is not without its complexities,” Narayan said, explaining that projects are often delayed.
“The construction of dams and run-of-river projects for hydropower often encounters prolonged delays, extensive gestation periods, and is contingent on variable rainfall patterns.”
Solar and wind energy face the same hurdles as underdeveloped power grids curtail progress in the sector.
“India’s existing grid infrastructure is not fully equipped to handle the integration of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind,” according to Narayan.
Investment is key
Ramping up investments — particularly in battery storage — may be the most significant way for India to meet its net-zero transition goals.
India currently has around 180 gigawatts of installed renewable energy and aims to reach 500 gigawatts by 2030, according to government agency Invest India.
“Grid-scale battery storage is costly, with supply chain disruptions further driving up prices due to events like the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. These complexities render it challenging to rely solely on renewables for consistent and dependable power generation,” Narayan said.
Water being released from the Madupetty dam and hydro power station in Kerala, India.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Another issue is that renewables are a frontloaded investment where “all your investments happen on the day of installation. You pay for everything upfront,” said Rodrigues from Ember.
“The problem with that is that you require a lot of financing capacity, and there is limited financing capacity in India,” he added, warning that India’s net-zero goals cannot be met without foreign investments.
“Going forward, we need to find ways to first phase down coal, then we can talk about completely phasing it out.”
— CNBC’s Naman Tandon contributed to this report.
GreenPower Motor Company says it’s received three orders for 11 of its BEAST electric Type D school buses for western state school districts in Arizona, California, and Oregon.
GreenPower hasn’t made the sort of headline-grabbing promises or big-money commitments that companies like Nikola and Lion Electric have, but while those companies are floundering GPM seems to be plugging away, taking orders where it can and actually delivering buses to schools. Late last year, the company scored 11 more orders for its flagship BEAST electric school bus.
As far as these latest orders go, the breakdown is:
- seven to Los Banos Unified School District in Los Banos, California
- two for the Hood River County School District in Hood River, Oregon
- two for the Casa Grande Elementary School District in Casa Grande, Arizona
Those two BEAST electric school buses for Arizona will join another 90-passenger BEAST that was delivered to Phoenix Elementary School District #1, which operates 15 schools in the center of Phoenix, late last year.
“As school districts continue to make the change from NOx emitting diesel school buses to a cleaner, healthier means of transporting students, school district transportation departments are pursuing the gold standard of the industry – the GreenPower all-electric, purpose-built (BEAST) school buses,” said Paul Start, GreenPower’s Vice President of Sales, School Bus Group. “(The) GreenPower school bus order pipeline and production schedule are both at record levels with sales projections for (2025) set to eclipse the 2024 calendar year.”
GreenPower moved into an 80,000-square-foot production facility in South Charleston, West Virigina in August 2022, and delivered its first buses to that state the following year.
Electrek’s Take
Since the first horseless carriage companies started operating 100 years ago (give or take), at least 1,900 different companies have been formed in the US, producing over 3,000 brands of American automobiles. By the mid 1980s, that had distilled down to “the big 3.”
All of which is to say: don’t let the recent round of bankruptcies fool you – startups in the car and truck industry is business as usual, but some of these companies will stick around. If you’re wondering which ones, look to the ones that are making units, not promises.
SOURCE | IMAGES: GreenPower Motors.
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While some recent high-profile bankruptcies have cast doubt on the EV startup space recently, medium-duty electric truck maker Harbinger got a shot of credibility this week with a massive $100 million Series B funding round co-led by Capricorn’s Technology Impact Fund.
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for fledgling EV brands like Lion Electric and Canoo, but box van builder Harbinger is bucking the trend, fueling its latest funding round with an order book of 4,690 vehicles that’s valued at nearly $500 million. Some of the company’s more notable customers including Bimbo Bakeries (which owns brands like Sara Lee, Thomas’, and Entenmann’s) and THOR Industries (Airstream, Jayco, Thor), which is also one of the investors in the Series B.
Other prominent investors include Tiger Global, the Coca-Cola System Sustainability Fund, and ArcTern Ventures.
As for what makes Harbinger such an attractive investment prospect, Dipender Saluja, Managing Partner of Capricorn Investment Group’s Technology Impact Fund explains that, “Harbinger has demonstrated a remarkable ability to reach significant milestones far quicker than other EV companies … the market has been impressed by their ability to develop large portions of the vehicle in-house to drive down unit costs, while remaining capital efficient.”
The company plans to use the funds to ramp up to higher-volume production capacity and deliver on existing orders, as well as build-out of the company’s sales, customer support, and service operations.
“Harbinger is entering a rapid growth phase where we are focused on scaling production of our customer-ready platform,” said John Harris, co-founder and CEO. “These funds catalyze significant revenue generation. We’ve developed a vehicle for a segment that is ripe for electrification, and there is a strong product/market fit that will help fuel our upward trajectory through 2025 and beyond.”
The company has raised $200 million since its inception in 2021.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.
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There is no state more associated with cars and car culture than Michigan – and the state that’s home to the Motor City has just taken a huge step into the future with the deployment of its first-ever all electric police vehicle.
The 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E patrol vehicle is assigned to the Michigan State Police State Security Operations Section, and will be to be used by armed, uniformed members of the MSP specializing in general law enforcement and security services at state-owned facilities in the Lansing, MI area.
“This is an exciting opportunity for us to research, in real time, how a battery electric vehicle performs on patrol,” says Col. James F. Grady II, director of the MSP. “Our state properties security officers patrol a substantially smaller number of miles per day than our troopers and motor carrier officers, within city limits and at lower speeds, coupled with the availability of charging infrastructure in downtown Lansing, making this the ideal environment to test the capabilities of a police-package battery electric vehicle.”
The MSP’s Precision Driving Unit is nationally renowned for its annual Police Vehicle Evaluation, which our own Scooter Doll participated in last year, driving the then-new Chevy Blazer EV Police Pursuit Vehicles in a game of “cops and robbers.”
In those tests, the EVs have impressed – but the MSP has been hesitant to commit to a BEV until now. “We began testing battery electric vehicles in 2022, but up until now hybrids were the only alternative fuel vehicle in our fleet,” said Lt. Nicholas Darlington, commander of the Precision Driving Unit. “Adding this battery electric vehicle to our patrol fleet will allow us to study the vehicle’s performance long-term to determine if there is a potential for cost savings and broader applicability within our fleet.”
Michigan joins other states like Wisconsin and California in deploying electric patrol cars and saving big money on fuel and maintenance, with many more out there and many more to come.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Michigan State Police.
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