The curse of the returning Heisman Trophy winner
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
It was Dec. 13, 2008, in New York City and time for the three Heisman Trophy finalists to take their place at the front of the room, awaiting the announcement of who would win college football’s most coveted individual award. But one member of the trio was missing. The one who had been there before.
“I was in the bathroom throwing up,” Tim Tebow confessed nearly 16 years later. The Florida quarterback was there not simply as a Heisman finalist, but as the reigning Heisman winner, seeking to become the second two-time Heisman honoree and first in 33 years.
“Honestly, I didn’t think I was going to win it. I wanted to. Of course, I did. But when you watch the ceremony, what do you see? There’s us on the front row, and then there are all the people sitting behind us. Coaches and staff from your school, the president of the university, everyone. My entire family was there. My sister had flown in from a mission trip to Bangladesh, just for this. I knew there was a party after, with all those people, win or lose, and if I’d lost, I’d felt like I had let them all down. That’s why I got sick.”
Tebow didn’t win. He finished third behind a pair of quarterbacks — Oklahoma‘s Sam Bradford and Texas‘s Colt McCoy — despite earning more first-place votes than either of them.
“Winning the Heisman changes your life, there is no doubt about it,” Tebow said. “And people think, ‘Well, you won one, so the pressure’s off on the second.’ But it’s not. It’s a position every college football player wants to be in, but no one knows what that is like until they experience it.”
Caleb Williams is experiencing it now. The fame, hype, expectations, assumptions, all of it. And he’s the first to do so in this still-new NIL era, his Saturday performances — good and bad — punctuated by television commercials starring him. After a hot start to 2023, Williams and USC have scuffled midseason and his Heisman odds have plummeted.
The one person who has hated seeing that more than anyone not dressed in Trojans colors is the only man to have pulled off what increasingly feels impossible. Archie Griffin does not have any desire to be the only member of the two-time Heisman Trophy winner club. Honestly, he’d enjoy the company. It’s been pretty lonely in his corner of the room for the past 48 years.
“I don’t have to be the only two-time winner and I don’t really want to be,” the 69-year-old Ohio State legend said earlier this fall during a conversation about Williams. “I was the first. That’s plenty enough of an honor for me. I can’t wait to welcome the second.”
No. 45 let out a giant laugh with a shake of the head.
“But I’ve been waiting for a long time, haven’t I?”
Griffin, who stood at the front of the room at Downtown Athletic Club in 1974 and 1975, is and has long been, the living, smiling, complete opposite of that awards show scenario. He still returns to New York every December. And he still makes sure to shake the hand of every fellow Heisman Trophy winner in attendance, especially the person who has just become the newest designee as “the outstanding college football player in the United States…”
“In 1978, three years after I won it for the second time, I shook the hand of Billy Sims, who has become a dear friend,” Griffin said. “I thought, ‘Well, he’s a junior just like I was and he has a great team coming back at Oklahoma just like I did at Ohio State, so he will definitely be back here winning this again next year!’ But he didn’t. And there have been so many guys that I was so excited thinking about them maybe getting to experience that thrill a second time, especially now, when so many amazing young talented underclassmen win it. It’s crazy to think about, really.”
Yet, here we are. It would take a miraculous turn for Williams to repeat. Since Jason White finished behind Matt Leinart, this century alone, those who have returned to college for another shot at bronzed glory have gone 0-for-10, eight who went 0-for-1 and Tebow, who went 0-for-2.
But the possibility of claiming two stiff-arming statues didn’t begin with Griffin or begin to be scrutinized with a recent run of elite quarterbacks.
Times change, failure to repeat does not
The first winner of the Heisman Trophy in 1935, one year before the award was named for John Heisman, was Chicago running back Jay Berwanger. He was a senior. And so were the first 10 winners of the award. The junior who snapped that streak in 1945 was Army‘s Doc Blanchard, who in turn became the first candidate for a Heisman repeat. Unfortunately for the fullback known as “Mr. Inside” there was also a “Mr. Outside,” as in teammate Glenn Davis, who took the award in 1946 while Blanchard finished fourth.
Over the Heisman’s first four decades, from Berwanger through Griffin’s second win, those who had hoisted the stiff-armed trophy at season’s end had tallied 35 seniors and only five juniors, the first four failing to repeat, including the great Roger Staubach, who won the award in 1963 and then failed to even crack the top 10 the following year.
Sims came up one spot short in 1979, behind USC’s Charles White. And while the other failed Heisman defenses had been handled with gentlemanly grace, Sims growled his disappointment, saying when asked about his chances of a repeat after a disappointing midseason performance against Texas, “I don’t care. I have one already!” And after White’s Heisman win, Oklahoma head coach Barry Switzer angrily stumped at a news conference, suggesting that NFL scouts vote on the award, not the media, and adding, “Billy’s two years were better than Archie Griffin’s two years that he won the thing!”
“I think when you look back on that stuff now, you realize the pressure that came with it,” Sims recalled during a 2016 chat in his Tulsa barbecue joint sitting beneath a framed Sports Illustrated cover of himself and White playing tug of war with the trophy with the headline: “Hey Man, That’s My Heisman!”
“The year I won it I was kind of an unknown guy who kind of came out of nowhere. I was a great story. The next year, man, every question after every game was, ‘Well, do you think you can win the Heisman again? Charles White just did this and the quarterback at BYU [Marc Wilson] just did that. Did you do enough, Billy?’ I don’t care who you are or how tough you are, you are still a college kid. It’s a lot.”
Sims was just the sixth junior to win the award over 43 years. Of the 43 awarded since, 21 have gone to underclassmen. Of the first seven of those, from Herschel Walker in 1981 through Charles Woodson in 1997, all but one left early for the NFL. The lone holdout was BYU quarterback Ty Detmer, who returned after his record-setting 1990 campaign and battled through injuries to finish third in 1991. As he arrived in New York for the ceremony, he confessed, “I’m here to watch Desmond Howard win it.”
After Woodson, seniors ruled again. White, the Oklahoma quarterback who won in 2003 was a senior, but received an injury waiver to return and defend his Heisman the next year. He lost to Leinart, beginning the current era when a stunning 14 of 18 winners were juniors or younger. That “or younger” is no small development, as a longtime unwritten ageism agreement between Heisman voters was finally put to pasture by voters smitten with Tebow in 2007, the start of a three-year sophomoric streak. Then, in 2012, Texas A&M‘s Johnny Manziel won it as a — deep breath — freshman!
How did none of them win again? Those who came up short of sitting alongside Griffin give us a not-short list of reasons.
The circus
Heisman pressure is very real. So is temptation. Exactly what forms that takes is something that changes and evolves along with every other aspect of being an athlete at a high level college football program, as does how those athletes react to it. Griffin didn’t have to deal with social media or even cable television, but even still, Ohio State head coach Woody Hayes assigned a staff member to help Griffin manage the flood of requests from media and Ohio State supporters because, as Hayes explained at the time, “The kid is too nice. He has to learn how to say no.”
After Manziel became the first freshman winner in 2012, the following offseason, then-Texas A&M athletic director Eric Hyman assigned two staffers to the kid who had just been pinned with the now-infamous Johnny Football moniker — one to manage his schedule and the other to field autograph requests. Alan Cannon, who has overseen A&M’s sports information office since 1999, called his friends at Florida to see how they’d handled Tebow’s repeat performances. “They warned us that this wasn’t going to be about ESPN and CBS anymore,” Cannon recalled. “It would also be about the National Enquirer and TMZ.”
Hyman sat down with Manziel and his family, stating flatly: “Johnny is not a freshman. He’s not a sophomore, junior or senior. He’s a Heisman. We can’t act like this is normal because it’s not.”
As we know now, Hyman was a prophet. Manziel spent his entire Heisman defense becoming notorious, from exploding cigar-smoking party Twitpics to a pay-for-autographs scandal that nearly cost him his eligibility for the season. By the time he threw for 3,732 yards and 27 touchdowns — a 313-yard, three-touchdown improvement over his Heisman year — he lost by a whopping 1,501 points to another redshirt freshman, Florida State‘s Jameis Winston.
Winston stated at ACC preseason media days in the summer of 2014: “If I get Manziel disease, I want all of you to smack me in the head with your microphones.”
The reality is that he already had. He won the 2013 award despite 13% of voters left him off their ballots completely, due to a sexual assault investigation that ended with no charges filed only nine days before he became the youngest Heisman winner. Winston would also lead FSU to the 2013 national title. Then he proceeded to crash through a 2014 Heisman follow-up campaign that is still remembered less for football and more for questions about the handling of the sexual assault allegations, crab legs allegedly stolen from a grocery store in April 2014, and a bizarre midseason student center tabletop screaming incident that resulted in a half-game suspension for the biggest game of the season against Clemson.
It all resulted in a sixth-place showing behind Oregon‘s Marcus Mariota, the worst Heisman finish for a uninjured returning winner.
“I think in the decade since then, we have learned a lot about how to handle these things better, whether it’s a coach or a player or an entire athletic department,” Jimbo Fisher, Winston’s coach at FSU and now at A&M, said when asked about then versus now. “I know that the players handle the spotlight better, because now the great ones, they have been in the spotlight since they were kids, when you really think about it. But I don’t care who you are or your background or whatever, fame is fame. And being famous is hard.”
As Hyman recalled it in relation to Manziel: “At the end of the day, it’s a kid who’s trying to become a grown-up. They all are. You can’t babysit them night and day. All you can do is try and educate them on what they are now, a celebrity, and the world they are now living in. Even as that world seems to be constantly changing.”
Unreasonable expectations
Manziel wasn’t the only active Heisman winner to post better or at least just as impressive numbers the following year but was still unable to impress voters like he did the year before. Not even close.
The all-time example of that was Detmer. In 1991, the BYU quarterback went against the norm and returned to Provo for his senior year, the first Heisman winner to come back since Sims. His 1990 statistics were ridiculous, setting 21 NCAA passing records and tying five more as the Cougars finished 10-3 with a signature win over No. 1 Miami in Week 2. BYU marketers devised what is considered the first true Heisman campaign, mailing out paper neckties to hundreds of voters to remind them of, you know, Ty.
As the 1991 season started, Detmer was warned by LaVell Edwards, his Hall of Fame head coach, to not become too obsessed with topping the year before, and to remain in the here and now. It didn’t work. Detmer suffered injuries and BYU opened the season 0-3 against a slate of ranked teams. He was already in his own head before October.
“We are taught as football players and athletes that your goal is to always be improving, and how do you do that?” Detmer recalled last year. “You do it by being better than your last game. But if your last game was a dream game and your last season was the dream season, that’s a measuring stick that can be difficult to manage.”
He says now that the 0-3 start was an unintended blessing. It sent the spotlight elsewhere, for a while. But when BYU didn’t lose again (there were two ties) and he finished the year with another 4,000-yard season, it was enough to earn the Davey O’Brien and Sammy Baugh awards and another first-team All-American selection. But he finished third in the Heisman vote.
“I think that’s probably the greatest challenge, to top what you did, but for me it wasn’t so much about what others expected, though that definitely is on your mind,” said Bryce Young, who won the Heisman in 2021 as he led Alabama to a national championship. Young fought through a season of physical dings to “only” a 10-2 record and didn’t just finish sixth in the Heisman vote behind Williams, but was third among SEC quarterbacks. “For me, the expectations I had for myself were much greater. That’s where my pressure came from. Not to be unfair to myself.”
Injuries
Bradford, as Gators fans love to remind us, lost to Tebow in a grinder of a 2009 BCS National Championship Game, but was returning the following fall with an Oklahoma team that looked even better than the one that had just set a slew Big 12 offensive records.
In the season opener against BYU, he had just thrown a pass that topped fellow Heisman winner White’s Oklahoma career passing yardage mark but was blasted by a hit on the next play. He struggled with a severe shoulder sprain all season and became the first returning Heisman winner since Staubach in 1964 to finish outside the top 10 in voting.
Running back Mark Ingram won instead, becoming Alabama’s first Heisman winner. Days before the 2010 season opener, Ingram injured his knee and ended up having surgery. By the time he returned to action, he was forced to share carries with another future Heisman finalist, Trent Richardson. Ingram also finished outside the top 10.
“The one aspect of football you can’t control is getting hurt,” Bradford recalled in 2014, when an ACL tear cost him the entire 2014 NFL season with the Rams. “But what drives you to get back is to do right by your teammates. Every injury is frustrating, but it’s especially frustrating when you know you had a team that had a chance to do something special if you hadn’t let them down.”
Their team was too good
Sometimes, that team around a would-be Heisman repeater is also loaded with other stars.
It’s always been a crucial component to a candidate’s portfolio that they be on a team that makes a postseason run. But to do that, there has to be more than one great player on a roster. Sometimes that Heisman winner has to share stats, stage and votes with one of those teammates.
“Oh, I knew when I came back in 2004 that if someone on my team was going to win the Heisman it was going to be Adrian,” said White, who returned to Oklahoma after his 2003 Heisman win to share a backfield with Adrian Peterson. A self-described Heisman history buff, White knew about Army’s back-to-back Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside winners and wanted to do the same with himself and Peterson, who would set several NCAA freshman rushing records in 2004. Instead, they both went to New York as finalists, but lost to Leinart. Oklahoma fans still say that the split between Sooners cost one or the other the trophy. White’s response to that: “Great problem to have.”
Leinart, in turn, was back in New York the following year, having thrown for nearly 500 more yards than his Heisman season. He finished third behind USC teammate Reggie Bush and the player they faced a few weeks later in the BCS championship, Texas QB Vince Young.
“I wasn’t upset at all to lose to Reggie,” the former USC quarterback said. “You know, every Heisman winner gets a ballot. I had him No. 1 on my ballot. I was worried that I was going to take votes away from him and cost him the Heisman, not the other way around.”
Their team wasn’t good enough
Just call this the “Lamar Jackson Rule” — that unwritten rule about one’s team needing to compete for titles to remain Heisman relevant.
The Louisville quarterback won the 2016 Heisman, electrifying college football with a stat line of 3,543 yards passing with 30 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and a rating of 148.8, along with 1,571 yards and 21 touchdowns with his feet. The following season his stats were a nearly identical 3,660/27/10/146.6 in the air and 1,601/18 on the ground.
Yet, he went from runaway winner to distant third-place finisher behind Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Bryce Love of Stanford. The difference? Jackson’s 2016 Louisville team spent the entire season on the big stage, ranked as high as third and ending the year 15th, even after a three-game skid that landed them at 9-4. The 2017 Cardinals never cracked the top 10, and after four pre-November losses, dropped out of the top 25 and out of mind.
“You can’t do it all by yourself,” groused then-Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino after Jackson accounted for 491 yards of offense and four touchdowns against Wake Forest … and lost 42-32 to drop to 5-4. “He’s had to. I think what he’s done has been more impressive than last year, but the voters won’t see it that way. They’ll want another guy.”
Voter fatigue
Petrino’s complaint isn’t uncommon. And he’s not wrong. Mayfield, who threw for 4,627 yards and 43 scores and took OU to the College Football Playoff, deserved the 2017 award. Even Jackson, whose family became close with the Mayfields during that awards season, has said that. But he has also recognized the reality of voter fatigue.
“I think once you’ve had an incredible season and it’s been a great story, everyone loves it, but maybe they want to learn about a new story, a new guy, something they’ve not seen before,” the Baltimore Ravens quarterback said last month. The 2019 NFL MVP started laughing as he said, “I’m not saying that people get tired of you when you’ve been around for a while, but then again maybe I am.”
Let’s go back to Tebow. He had comparable stats on the field in 2008 compared to his Heisman year and did it while winning the SEC and the BCS titles. And he did garner more first-place votes in 2008 but finished third because 153 of 902 voters left him off their ballots completely.
“Do they get sick of you? Well, I think some definitely got sick of me,” said the only player to attend three ceremonies as a Heisman finalist after he finished fifth his senior year (and helped winner Mark Ingram and runner-up Ndamukong Suh work off nerves in the hotel weight room). “But I will tell you this, and I think every guy who has won it and comes back for another year will tell you. I’d rather be blessed with success and they get sick of me and my team than them not think about us at all.”
Someday someone will finally win their second Heisman. It’s inevitable. At least it should be. Everyone believes that, from all of those winners who didn’t pull it off to the one guy who did. Though, yeah, if they’re being honest, even they are beginning to wonder.
“Yes, one day someone will do it. At least I think so,” Griffin said, again chuckling. “I just hope that when it does, I am still here to congratulate them in person.”
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David Schoenfield
There is no Juan Soto in MLB free agency this year. There is definitely no Shohei Ohtani. But although there might not be a player who will inspire people to track the flight paths of private jets on social media, it’s an intriguing class of free agents nonetheless — one especially deep in power hitters.
Let’s look at 13 of the most interesting free agents, assuming a few likely player opt-outs, and some potential best fits for each player. We’ll leave out some of the top relievers — Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Robert Suarez (opt-out), Devin Williams — and instead focus on the top position players and starting pitchers available this winter.
Players are ranked in order of their Baseball-Reference WAR from 2025.
2025 stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBIs, 13 SB, 5.0 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: New York Mets
Bellinger surprisingly tops the list in 2025 WAR, although that doesn’t by any means suggest he’s going to get the biggest contract. Indeed, although he offers positional versatility with his ability to play all three outfield positions as well as first base, teams will be skeptical of his 2025 numbers since he hit .302 with 18 home runs and a .909 OPS at Yankee Stadium with its short porch compared with .241 with 11 home runs and a .715 OPS on the road. Bellinger works for the Mets both in center field — heck, they were playing 33-year-old infielder Jeff McNeil out there at times — and at first, if they don’t re-sign Pete Alonso.
Another possible fit: New York Yankees
A reunion with the Yankees is possible, but if the Yankees are committed to Jasson Dominguez in left field and give Spencer Jones a shot in center, they’re going to be reluctant to give Bellinger a long-term contract. Given some of their recent returns on long deals (DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton), they probably don’t want to get sucked into another big contract for a non-superstar player, no matter how good Bellinger was in 2025.
2025 stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBIs, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 33
Best fit: Philadelphia Phillies
Everyone expects Schwarber to return to the Phillies, coming off his 56-homer season and with his added value as one of the best teammates in the game. Nothing is guaranteed, however, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is balancing a lot of decisions this offseason. J.T. Realmuto is also a free agent, Ranger Suarez is a free agent and Zack Wheeler‘s return is a question, plus the team in general is getting older. But it’s still a team in a championship window — if Schwarber remains in the lineup.
Another possible fit: Mets
Think the Mets would love to steal Schwarber away from the Phillies? Addition and then subtraction from your rival. Would Schwarber leave the Phillies for the enemy? Players are a lot less loyal than we’d like to believe. Starling Marte was the Mets’ primary DH and he’s a free agent, plus consider: The Mets signed Soto and Alonso had a better season — yet they still scored two fewer runs than in 2024. It was an above-average offense, fifth in the NL in runs, but it wasn’t a great offense. Adding Schwarber could take it to the next level.
2025 stats: 12-8. 3.20 ERA, 157 IP, 154 H, 38 BB, 151 SO, 4.7 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Detroit Tigers
Suarez has been a steady and underrated pitcher since 2021, with a 3.25 ERA over the past five seasons, relying on a six-pitch repertoire that allows him to overcome below-average fastball velocity. He always gets dinged up at some point, so he’s a 150-inning pitcher as opposed to a 180-inning guy, but that still makes him a good fit for the Tigers, who need rotation depth, should have plenty of room in the payroll and could trade Tarik Skubal (sorry, Tigers fans).
Another possible fit: Toronto Blue Jays
Suarez will have a lot of interest even though he lacks that blistering fastball. Indeed, his lack of No. 1-starter pedigree will bring more teams into the bidding, even if he’s expected to get a nine-figure deal. The Blue Jays are an interesting fit here. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents; Shane Bieber has a player option; and Kevin Gausman is a free agent after the 2026 season. They’ll be looking for some long-term stability in the rotation.
2025 stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 25 SB, 4.5 WAR
2026 age: 29
Best fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
If healthy, Tucker would have led this list in WAR — he was hitting .291/.395/.537 for the Chicago Cubs at the end of June when he suffered a fracture in his right hand, which he tried to play through. But he hit just .225 the rest of the way. Indeed, he’s projected to get the biggest contract of the offseason, perhaps as much as $400 million.
As good as he has been, there are some Anthony Rendon vibes here: Tucker has now been injured two years in a row (he also missed much of September with a calf injury); he’s turning 29; his speed/range Statcast metrics aren’t great (26th percentile in both categories); and he’s not a “face of the franchise” type of personality, which you normally expect for $400 million.
Could the Dodgers absorb another huge contract? Well, why not? The Dodgers are the best fit of “will spend money” and “have need,” considering they got nothing from left field in 2025 and suddenly have concerns about Mookie Betts‘ long-term impact at the plate after his subpar (for him) season.
Another possible fit: San Francisco Giants
The Giants, of course, have been trying to land an elite offensive player in free agency forever — finally trading for Rafael Devers last June. Giants corner outfielders hit just .237/.309/.378 with 37 home runs and 12 stolen bases, so adding Tucker to the lineup would give them a much-needed second lefty power hitter (with rookie slugger Bryce Eldridge likely to take over at first base, too).
2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 171 H, 68 BB, 187 SO, 3.8 WAR
2026 age: 32
Best fit: Baltimore Orioles
At some point, the Orioles will sign the front-line starter they need, right? Right?! They finished 24th in rotation ERA at 4.65 and had seven starters who made at least 10 starts in 2025 — and four of them had ERAs over 5.00. That’s not going to cut it in the AL East. Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) did emerge in the second half, and Kyle Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, but the Orioles have lacked that durable No. 1-type starter and Valdez is second in innings pitched over the past four seasons.
Another possible fit: Houston Astros
The Astros have the need to bring Valdez back as the rotation was mostly a mess in 2025 aside from him and Hunter Brown. The payroll, however, looks pretty maxed out with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Josh Hader (they’re also paying Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier a combined $39 million in 2026). Don’t rule out a return, but the Astros have let other stars leave in free agency — Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.
2025 stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBIs, 3.6 WAR
2026 age: 34
Best fit: Athletics
The A’s aren’t often included in lists like this one — especially for a player coming off 49 home runs — but a lot of factors could push Suarez to the A’s: his age, his below-average OBP and strikeout rate, his subpar production after he was traded to Seattle. The A’s started nine players at third base in 2025 (players who combined for just 10 home runs), and Suarez would certainly bring power and durability — he has missed just seven games the past three seasons. He’s also a good clubhouse guy who would fit in with the team’s younger players. The A’s surprised people by signing Luis Severino last offseason, so they could land Suarez in a similar scenario.
Other possible fits: Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
The Brewers (.234, 11 HR, .650 OPS) and Tigers (.221, 11 HR, .629) both made the playoffs despite subpar production at third base. Milwaukee loves high-contact offensive players, so maybe Suarez doesn’t fit there, and Detroit might not want to add another high-strikeout rate guy in the middle of the lineup on top of Riley Greene. The D-backs and Mariners are familiar with Suarez — he played for each in 2025 — but both have young players in Jordan Lawlar and Colt Emerson whom they could play at third.
2025 stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBIs, 3.5 WAR
2026 age: 32
Best fit: Boston Red Sox
Bregman hit free agency last year and didn’t sign until the middle of February, a three-year, $120 million deal with opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. He played well enough with the Red Sox that he’s likely to test free agency, even though a quad strain limited him to 114 games. After a hot start, he didn’t hit nearly as well after returning in July — .250/.338/.386. The big surprise is that the pull-happy Bregman hit better on the road (.875 OPS) than at Fenway (.761 OPS).
Still, the Red Sox remain the best fit. He was an important veteran presence for Boston’s young position players, and he’s a right-handed bat in a lineup otherwise heavy in lefties (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida). Bregman’s age presents some risk on a long-term deal, but although his speed metrics are sinking (17th percentile), he still has good range at third base and brought his OBP back up after it dropped to .315 in 2024.
Other possible fits: Tigers, Yankees, Phillies
Bregman’s contact ability makes him a likely fit for the Tigers — and he’ll be too expensive for the Brewers. The interesting long shot candidates would be the Yankees and Phillies. The Yankees have Ryan McMahon under contract, but he posted a .641 OPS after coming over from the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline and his strikeout issues are a concern. The Phillies have Alec Bohm in his final year of team control, but Bohm produced just 1.3 WAR in 2025 and the Phillies are a little tired of his lack of postseason production (.225, 2 HR, 14 RBIs in 38 playoff games). Bregman’s fire might be what the Phillies need.
2025 stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 31
Best fit: Mets
Alonso’s stature — and ability to hit home runs and drive in runs — means he’s the highest-profile free agent alongside Schwarber, even if his WAR puts him lower on this list. Alonso has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games throughout his career, and his durability is one of his selling points — he hasn’t missed a game the past two seasons. Alonso was a free agent last year and there wasn’t much interest, so he went back to the Mets on a deal that gave him an opt-out and responded with a better campaign in 2025.
Will there be more demand this offseason? Perhaps. But Alonso is a 31-year-old first baseman who is a below-average defender. He has elite power but not elite on-base percentages. That all makes him a “high risk” category, and he’s not quite in the class of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, the first basemen who received big nine-figure deals since 2022. It’s hard to envision Alonso leaving the Mets, but president of baseball operations David Stearns won’t overpay to bring him back — and Alonso might not be so willing to give the Mets a sweetheart of a deal this time around.
Other possible fits: Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
The Texas Rangers didn’t get the output they wanted from Jake Burger; the Red Sox could move on from Triston Casas; and the Phillies (if they don’t sign Schwarber) and Atlanta Braves might consider Alonso as a DH, but let’s toss out the Marlins. Their first basemen hit just .234 with 15 home runs. They haven’t had a 2-WAR first baseman since Justin Bour in 2017 or a 3-WAR first baseman since Derrek Lee in 2002. Teams always think they can fill first base with adequate offense, but the Marlins are proof that’s not always the case. Alonso is also from Florida, which might help. A more realistic long shot might be the Nationals, who need a big bopper and have plenty of room in the payroll.
2025 stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBIs, 3.4 WAR
2026 age: 28
Best fit: Giants
Bichette’s free agency will be fascinating. Given his poor defensive metrics at shortstop, it’s almost a certainty teams will be looking at him as a second or third baseman rather than a shortstop — even the Blue Jays (the team he has been with his entire career), who would move Andres Gimenez to shortstop. That’s not a bad thing for Bichette, as it opens up his possible destinations to more teams if he’s willing to change positions.
Although he is a .294 hitter, it will be interesting to see how he ages: He already doesn’t run well (21st percentile in speed) and he doesn’t walk much, so his offensive production is heavily reliant on his batting average. We mentioned the Giants as a potential fit for Kyle Tucker. The same goes for Bichette, as Giants second basemen hit just .216/.273/.342.
Another possible fit: Kansas City Royals
OK, can the Royals realistically afford to sign Bichette? Probably not, but a double-play combination of Bobby Witt Jr. and Bichette would be a lot of fun, and Bichette’s style of hitting would be a good fit for that park. Royals second basemen hit just .236 with 11 home runs, and we know the lineup needs something else. The Royals aren’t the Pittsburgh Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays. They will spend some money — although there isn’t much wiggle room based on the 2025 payroll — and there is a contention window right now with their current rotation.
2025 stats: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBIs, 30 SB, 3.1 WAR
2026 age: 29
Best fit: Mariners
Naylor was the perfect fit for the Mariners, who had not only struggled at first base but also needed a more contact-oriented hitter like Naylor for the middle of the lineup when they traded for him at this year’s deadline. He unveiled one of the most surprising secret weapons, going 30-for-32 as a base stealer despite being one of the slowest runners in baseball. Although many hitters are reluctant to sign with the Mariners, Naylor loves hitting at T-Mobile Park, with a career line of .304/.335/.534. The Mariners should have room to bring him back.
Another possible fit: Rangers
Rangers first basemen/DHs combined for a .657 OPS — only the Rockies were worse. Texas still has Jake Burger and Joc Pederson (who will probably exercise his $18.5 million player option), but both had sub-.290 OBPs, so the Rangers will consider upgrading.
2025 stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 152 H, 71 BB, 215 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Cubs
Cease’s eventual contract will far outpace his ERA and low WAR from 2025. Teams will focus on the power arm (average fastball of 97.1 mph), the high strikeout rate and the durability (five straight seasons with at least 32 starts). A return to the Cubs would be full circle as they originally drafted Cease in the sixth round out of high school in 2014 before trading him to the Chicago White Sox in the Jose Quintana deal.
The 2025 Cubs were a prime example of why teams prefer those power arms in the postseason. With Cade Horton injured, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga were their top two starters, two lefties without high K rates. They have plenty of payroll room to make a big rotation signing.
Another possible fit: San Diego Padres (and every other contender)
With Cease and Michael King (who has a player opt-out) in free agency, the Padres would have Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Joe Musgrove (returning from Tommy John surgery) and perhaps Mason Miller in their rotation — and the options thin out in a hurry after that. But is there room in a payroll that is already pushing $200 million heading into the offseason?
2025 stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 192 IP, 176 H, 66 BB, 175 SO, 1.1 WAR
2026 age: 30
Best fit: Diamondbacks
Like Cease, Gallen is hitting free agency with a high ERA. Unlike Cease, he averages 93.5 mph with his fastball instead of 97. Gallen’s home run rate nearly doubled from 0.8 per nine innings in 2024 to 1.5 in 2025, and his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-low 21.5%, a notable 5-percentage-points decline from his career rate entering the season. He did pitch better the final two months with a 3.32 ERA. Still, maybe some of the questions push Gallen back to the Diamondbacks, who will enter the offseason down him, Merrill Kelly and Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery) from their initial 2025 rotation.
Another possible fit: Los Angeles Angels
Does anyone want to play for the Angels? Their recent free agent signings have been more of the third-tier type, but they have room in the payroll and two pitchers from their 2025 rotation hitting free agency in Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. They signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal last offseason and might do something similar this offseason with a starter like Gallen.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B (Japan)
2025 stats: .286/.392/.659, 24 HR, 52 RBIs
2026 age: 26
Best fit: Mariners
A big left-handed slugger, Murakami has been a star in Japan since he hit 36 home runs as a 19-year-old in 2019. He followed that up with a career-high 56 home runs in 2022. He missed time this past season with an oblique injury but hit 24 home runs in 69 games. He does strike out a concerning amount — 168 times in 140 games in 2023 and 180 times in 143 games in 2024 — so projects as more of a low-average, 30-homer slugger. Murakami’s defense is considered below average at both corner positions, but his age helps make him an attractive free agent.
We mentioned Colt Emerson as a replacement for Eugenio Suarez at third base for the Mariners, but a year in Triple-A wouldn’t hurt, and Emerson could then take over at shortstop in 2027. That leaves Murakami as a fit for third base, or a backup option to Josh Naylor at first base. The Mariners have certainly shown they’re OK with strikeouts if it comes with power.
Another possible fit: Dodgers
The Dodgers? Hey, you have to consider the Dodgers a possibility for any Japanese player. They obviously have Freddie Freeman locked into first base and have a $10 million option on Max Muncy, but note that Murakami did play a few games in the outfield in 2025. Given their hole in left field, maybe they fake left-field defense with Murakami for a year and then have him replace Muncy at third base in 2027. In the bigger picture, the Dodgers had the oldest group of position players in 2025. Only Andy Pages was younger than 30 among the top 11 regulars. They need to get younger, and Murakami is younger — and less expensive to sign — than Kyle Tucker.
Sports
Early MLB offseason rumors and buzz: Which stars will get traded? Which teams will rule the winter?
The MLB hot stove season is here!
As players become free to sign with any team they choose (free agency officially begins Thursday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2025 World Series.
What is the early word on top free agents Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber? Will the Detroit Tigers consider moving Tarik Skubal? How will the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays approach the offseason after meeting in the World Series? Which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry? And who could be traded this winter?
Here is what we’re hearing as the hot stove ignites.
What is the early word on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber?
Jeff Passan: Tucker falls in that interesting bucket where he will rightly demand a contract in excess of $300 million, but the number of teams willing to pay that will limit his options. The Dodgers and Giants make sense, as do the Phillies. Schwarber, on the other hand, will have a bountiful market.
Because he’ll be 33 on Opening Day, Schwarber is looking at a maximum five-year deal. Even at a high average annual value, the lack of years keeps mid-market teams in the mix. Ultimately, though, the bidding is likely to come down to bigger-market teams, and he could wind up with a bigger per-year number than Tucker on account of that.
Jesse Rogers: The Cubs are likely going to let Tucker walk while the Phillies haven’t closed the door on a reunion with Schwarber. Chicago has more budget constraints than Philadelphia, meaning the Cubs probably don’t want to tie up $35-40 million on one player.
Somebody will be willing though, especially if Tucker can slide into a ready-made lineup — like the Dodgers’. There was some fun chatter about him joining his hometown Rays under new ownership, but a megadeal from Tampa isn’t likely. Industry insiders begin analysis of Tucker with the phrase, “when he’s healthy.” He’s as good as it gets at the plate when he is, but a couple of injuries over the past two seasons have thrown a wrench into his overall production.
Schwarber is one of those rare players — think Marcus Semien — who will make more money in his mid-30s than he did previously. He should sign for much more than $79 million, which is what he just made in his previous deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies need him more than he needs them, according to insiders. How do you replace 187 home runs over the past four years? You don’t. He could also balance out the Yankees’ lineup if Cody Bellinger walks. Can you imagine his home run totals with the short porch at Yankee Stadium?
Both players have the same agent — Casey Close of Excel — but they bring different skill sets to the table, meaning the crossover between interested teams may not materialize.
What do those in the industry think the Detroit Tigers will do with Tarik Skubal this winter?
Buster Olney: Other teams believe the Tigers will seriously consider moving him if they can glean what they want in a trade — and there is every reason to expect a significant bidding war for Skubal, who will be eligible for free agency after next season.
The Mariners are expected to be among the teams that go after Skubal, to bring him back to the city where he attended college. The Mets, of course, have an acute need for an ace to lead their rotation — a need borne out through their late-season collapse — and they have the sort of major-league-ready young talent that the Tigers will want, like Jonah Tong. The Red Sox are well-positioned to make a run at Skubal, if they want.
The only sure thing in this situation, it seems, is that Skubal will not sign a long-term deal with Detroit before he reaches free agency, and that will frame the Tigers’ decision-making.
Rogers: There are mixed feelings on Skubal. Even if he’s headed for free agency in a year, some believe the Tigers can still squeeze another playoff season out of him and then reassess under perhaps a new economic climate in baseball. Others believe Tigers president Scott Harris is too smart to let him walk for nothing more than draft pick compensation (under the current system), with the hope that whomever he might get in return helps the Tigers in 2026 and not just in the long term.
Some insiders see his situation as a test for owner Chris Ilitch. Will he open his wallet like his dad, Mike, used to or will he go the more conservative approach?
What should we expect from the Dodgers and Blue Jays this winter after reaching the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The Blue Jays outperformed expectations all season as underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset in the World Series, but this isn’t some small-market outfit. Backed by Rogers Communications and an entire country, the Blue Jays spend money (see: Vladimir Guerrero’s $500 million contract) and have targeted the sport’s biggest free agents in recent years (see: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto).
Starting pitching and the bullpen figure to reside near the top of their list of priorities this winter, but the first matter to address is Bo Bichette‘s future. Bichette is a homegrown star coming off a timely bounce-back regular season before battling through a knee sprain to go 8-for-23 with a .923 OPS in the World Series. His defensive metrics plunged at shortstop this season, perhaps enough for teams to consider him for second or third base.
Toronto already has about $850 million in future commitments. Adding a nine-figure deal for Bichette would spike their projected 2026 payroll close to $200 million with holes to fill in their pitching staff. But the Blue Jays, after again dabbling in luxury tax territory in 2025, have the money.
Alden Gonzalez: The Dodgers have one massive need heading into the offseason — they need a closer. More broadly, they need trusted arms late in games, particularly right-handed ones. Brusdar Graterol (coming off shoulder surgery), Blake Treinen (37 and coming off a rough year), Edgardo Henriquez and Will Klein (hard throwers with command issues) are the incumbents there, and they all have questions. So look for the Dodgers to be really aggressive in that space, either through free agency or via trade, or both.
But what will attract the most attention in the early part of this offseason will be the Dodgers’ ties to Skubal and Tucker. They’ll be engaged on both of those players, simply because they can, but it will probably be on the periphery.
After a disappointing end to the season for both New York teams, how active do those in the industry expect the Yankees and Mets to be this winter?
Castillo: The consensus seems to be that the Mets will be more active after their disappointing season. The Mets need a front-line starting pitcher. Skubal rumors erupted as soon as the Tigers were eliminated from the postseason, but acquiring the Cy Young Award winner will require president of baseball operations David Stearns to venture beyond his comfort zone. Then there’s the case of first baseman Pete Alonso, a free agent for the second straight offseason. Alonso wants a lucrative long-term deal coming off a rebound campaign. The Mets probably aren’t going to give him one, which would leave first base to fill.
The Yankees have moves to make, too. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are all free agents. Re-signing Bellinger, who fit in so seamlessly in his one season in the Bronx, is a priority, but he’s going to have a few deep-pocketed suitors. The Yankees could also use some rotation depth with Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt all out for at least the beginning of next season.
But between the two teams, the Mets — with owner Steve Cohen still hunting for a championship after five seasons in control — are more likely to execute big splashes this winter.
Olney: There is insight to be gleaned from the trade deadline activity of the New York teams, when they both were aggressive in trying to better position themselves for championship runs — the Yankees loading up on relievers and adding third baseman Ryan McMahon, and the Mets also working to bolster their bullpen.
The working goal for both organizations is plainly apparent: Anything short of a shot at a World Series title will be regarded as failure. So, yes, the Yankees will try to reconstruct a better, deeper bullpen; replace Bellinger, if he re-signs elsewhere, with an outfielder or two who can help the lineup around Aaron Judge and Ben Rice; and build more options at shortstop beyond Anthony Volpe, who is expected to miss the start of the 2026 season.
For the Mets, that could be targeting Skubal, or a free agent signing, and resolving the future of Alonso once and for all.
What other team are you hearing could dominate the headlines this winter?
Gonzalez: A lot of eyes this offseason will be on the Mariners, coming off their deepest postseason run in franchise history. Seattle came painstakingly close to reaching its first World Series but remains the only franchise that hasn’t.
Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, the two midseason acquisitions brought in to bolster the lineup, are now free agents, which means the Mariners once again have a massive need for offense to support their dynamic pitching staff.
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told local reporters recently that payroll is expected to be roughly where it stood at season’s end, at about $165 million. When accounting for the contracts that have since expired, that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million to spend — all of which can go to bats. The Mariners are widely expected to be aggressive in free agency, but they also have the prospect capital to pull off massive trades. And if there’s anybody who can be counted on to be aggressive when the moment demands it, it’s Dipoto.
Rogers: The Phillies. As they continue to chase a ring, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always willing to do more than just tinker with his roster. Obviously, Schwarber’s situation will help determine their path this offseason but fortifying the bullpen as well as the outfield should be high on their to-do list. And he won’t stop there. With Zack Wheeler on the mend and Ranger Suarez a free agent, the Phillies could need more in their rotation.
Dombrowski won’t overreact to another postseason loss — his team did win the NL East — but he also won’t leave things to chance. He’ll try to find as much redundancy to his roster as he can, like the Dodgers have been able to do. That takes money.
Who are the biggest names you are hearing could be traded this winter?
Olney: Because of the looming labor situation, some younger stars who are under team control in 2027 before reaching free agency could be shoved into the trade market by circumstances this winter.
The best example: Joe Ryan, who is eligible for free agency after the ’27 season. Typically, the Twins could wait until next summer’s trade deadline to consider taking offers for Ryan. However, with many executives believing that at least some of the ’27 season is in jeopardy because of the labor strife, placing an appropriate trade valuation on Ryan will be much, much more complicated next July; teams might not be willing to part with significant return if they believe the ’27 season will be truncated or lost. So if teams want to get proper return on players like Ryan, they could be better served to take offers this winter, rather than waiting until next summer.
Other players who could fit this timeline: MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, the Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman. If those players aren’t going to be locked down with multiyear deals, the best time to get value in a deal for them could be this winter.
Passan: Everyone wants Skubal, the soon-to-be two-time American League Cy Young winner, but as of now, the industry expects Detroit to hold onto him, even with his free agency approaching after the 2026 season.
Another arm with questions as to whether he’ll go: Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta, who at $8 million is cheap and will hit free agency next winter. Most of the bigger names that will draw interest are pitchers: Minnesota right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore and St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray.
Boston could be active in moving one of its outfielders, either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. One player widely expected to be moved: St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is willing to waive his no-trade clause.
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