Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:35
‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”
Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.
That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.
What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Image: A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Image: Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
The controversial US and Israeli-backed aid distributor in Gaza has accused Hamas of a deadly attack on a bus carrying Palestinians working with the organisation.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said at least five aid workers were killed and it fears some team members “may have been taken hostage”.
The aid organisation also said multiple people were injured in the alleged attack.
In a statement, the GHF has said the bus was carrying more than two dozen people working with the organisation when it was targeted at 10pm Gaza time (8pm UK time) on Wednesday.
The GHF said those in the bus were “local Palestinians” working with the organisation to “deliver critical aid”.
“At the time of the attack, our team was en route to one of our distribution centres in the area west of Khan Younis”, the GHF added.
It continued in its statement: “We are still gathering facts, but what we know is devastating: there are at least five fatalities, multiple injuries, and fear that some of our team members may have been taken hostage.
More on Gaza
Related Topics:
“We condemn this heinous and deliberate attack in the strongest possible terms. These were aid workers.”
The GHF also said in its statement that Hamas has in recent days been threatening members of the organisation, including aid workers, and civilians who have been receiving the aid.
The organisation said it holds Hamas fully responsible for “taking the lives of our dedicated workers who have been distributing humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people at the foundation’s sites in central and southern Gaza”.
“Tonight, the world must see this for what it is: an attack on humanity. We call on the international community to immediately condemn Hamas for this unprovoked attack and continued threat against our people simply trying to feed the Palestinian people,” the GHF said.
“We will release additional information once it becomes available. Despite this heinous attack, we will continue our mission to provide critical aid to the people of Gaza.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:59
From 10 June: The deadly road to Gaza aid point
The alleged attack came hours after health officials in Gaza said at least 25 Palestinians were killed by Israeli gunfire at a GHF site close to the former settlement of Netzarim, near Gaza City.
Medical officials at Shifa and al Quds hospitals say the people were killed as they approached the site.
Gaza’s health ministry said earlier this week that around 160 people have been killed in shootings near aid sites run by the GHF since they began distributing aid on 26 May.
However, the GHF has said there has been no violence in or around the distribution centres themselves.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:45
From 3 June: Shots fired as aid distributed in Gaza
Why is the aid system controversial?
Israel and the US have said the GHF system is aimed at preventing Hamas from siphoning off assistance.
Israel has not provided any evidence of systematic diversion, and the UN denies it has occurred.
The foundation’s distribution of aid has been marred by chaos, and multiple witnesses have said Israeli troops fired on crowds near the delivery sites.
Follow The World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
UN agencies and major aid groups have refused to work with the new system, saying it violates humanitarian principles because it allows Israel to control who receives aid and forces people to relocate to distribution sites, risking yet more mass displacement in the territory.
Jake Wood, a former US marine, resigned as head of the GHF in May before it began distributing aid in Gaza over concerns about is independence.
Mr Wood said the foundation cannot adhere to the “humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence, which I will not abandon”.
As the first light breaks across a quiet beach near Dunkirk, a human tide begins to move.
Dozens of migrants, many with children, rush across the sand toward the water’s edge.
French police are present, but they do not intervene.
For many of these men, women, and children, this moment marks the final chapter of a journey that began months ago, fleeing war, persecution, and economic collapse in countries as far afield as Iran, Eritrea, and Sudan.
Now, they face the potentially deadly crossing to the UK in a flimsy inflatable boat.
We watched as one vessel emerged from an inland waterway already crowded with people.
The vessel is soon dangerously overloaded.
Floating haphazardly, a baby is yanked onto the boat, as they yell out for more people to climb aboard.
Despite the dinghy taking on water – scooped out with a shoe – the crossing continues.
On the shore, police officers stood by, watching.
When I asked why no attempt was made to intervene, one officer said: “It’s for their safety.
“There are children there. We’re not going to throw grenades at them. It’s inhumane. But it’s sad.”
French police protocol, along with international law, makes such interventions legally and morally complex once boats are afloat – especially when families are involved.
As of the latest count, almost 15,000 people have already made the perilous journey across the Channel this year. Many more are expected this summer as the weather window widens.
In the makeshift camps near Dunkirk, migrants wait their turn for the smugglers to signal that conditions are right.
Ali Reza told us he fled Iran after converting to Christianity. He dreams of reaching Britain, where he hopes to claim asylum.
He said: “Britain is good and accepts refugees. It has good behaviour for refugees.
“I think I’ll get a good welcome. Many Iranian people go to Britain. There’s good behaviour.”
At least 25 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli gunfire at a US-backed humanitarian aid site in Gaza, according to health officials.
Medical officials at Shifa and al Quds hospitals say the people were killed as they approached the site – operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Dozens more were injured at the scene close to the former settlement of Netzarim, near Gaza City, medical officials from the Hamas-run territory added.
It comes just a day after Gaza health officials said 17 people were killed close to another GHF site in Rafah, southern Gaza.
Health officials said at least another six people were killed by Israeli gunfire as they approached a GHF site in Rafah on Wednesday.
Ten other people were also killed on Wednesday by Israeli strikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to officials.
The Israeli military said its forces fired warning shots towards suspects who were advancing and which it claimed posed a threat to the troops in the area of Netzarim.
“This is despite warnings that the area is an active combat zone. The IDF is aware of reports regarding individuals injured. The details are under review,” it added.
Follow The World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A total of 163 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded trying to reach the handful of aid sites operated by the GHF since it began work two weeks ago after a three-month blockade, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry.
It comes as the US ambassador to Israel said he does not think an independent Palestinian state remains a foreign policy for the Trump administration.
Mike Huckabee’s comments to Bloomberg News prompted the White House to say he spoke for himself.
When asked if a Palestinian state remains a US goal, Mr Huckabee said: “I don’t think so.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Asked about Mr Huckabee’s comments, the White House referred to remarks earlier this year by Donald Trump when he pledged an American takeover of Gaza – a proposal which was condemned globally.
Rights groups, Arab states, Palestinians and the UN said such a move amounted to “ethnic cleansing”.