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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

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Donald Trump awarded FIFA peace prize at World Cup draw

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Donald Trump awarded FIFA peace prize at World Cup draw

US President Donald Trump has been awarded FIFA’s new peace prize at the draw for next year’s World Cup.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino presented Mr Trump with a large golden trophy – formed of hands holding the earth – and a gold medal, which he wore around his neck.

The certificate, which Mr Infantino handed over at Washington DC’s Kennedy Center on Friday, recognises the US president for his actions to “promote peace and unity around the world”.

World football’s governing body, which announced the annual award last month, said it would be given to “individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace”.

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Mr Trump said it was “truly one of the greatest honours of my life”.

He said: “We saved millions and millions of lives. The Congo is an example – over 10 million people killed. It was heading for another 10 million very quickly.”

US President Donald Trump. Pics: Reuters
Image:
US President Donald Trump. Pics: Reuters

He also pointed to India and Pakistan, saying, “so many wars that we were able to end, in some cases a little before they started”.

Ahead of the draw, Mr Trump told reporters he did not care about the prize, but noted that he had “settled eight wars” in nearly 11 months in office.

The United States, along with Canada and Mexico, will host the tournament in 2026.

Mr Infantino, who has built up a strong relationship with the US president, backed him for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year.

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“This is what we want from a leader – a leader that cares about the people,” Mr Infantino said of Mr Trump.

The FIFA leader said to Mr Trump, “this is your prize, this is your peace prize”.

US President Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US President Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump thanked his family, including his wife, first lady Melania Trump, and praised the leaders of the other two host nations – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum – in his brief remarks.

Mr Infantino has often spoken about football as a unifier for the world, but the prize is a departure from the federation’s traditional focus on sport.

FIFA has described the prize as one that rewards “individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace, and by doing so have united people across the world”.

The award comes during a week where Mr Trump’s administration has been under scrutiny for lethal strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and as Mr Trump hardens his rhetoric against immigrants.

The Nobel Peace Prize this year was eventually awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who said shortly after receiving the prize that she was dedicating it in part to Mr Trump for “his decisive support of our cause”.

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Netflix agrees blockbuster $72bn deal for Warner Bros studios

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Netflix agrees blockbuster bn deal for Warner Bros studios

Netflix has agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal to secure Warner Bros Discovery’s film and TV studios and supercharge its library through rights to top franchises including Harry Potter and Game Of Thrones.

It had been reported that the US streaming giant was in exclusive talks over the deal following a bidding war for the assets.

Paramount Skydance and Comcast, the ultimate owner of Sky News, were the rival suitors for the bulk of WBD that also includes HBO, the HBO Max streaming platform and DC Studios.

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While Netflix has agreed a $27.75 per share price with WBD, which equates to the $72bn purchase figure, the deal gives the assets a total value of $82.7bn.

It will see WBD come under Netflix ownership once its remaining Discovery Global division, mostly legacy cable networks including CNN and the TNT sports channels, is separated.

However, the agreement is set to attract scrutiny from competition regulators, particularly in the United States and Europe.

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Both WBD and Netflix do not see the prospect of the deal being completed until late 2026 or 2027.

The main stumbling block is likely to be the fact that Netflix, which has hits including Stranger Things and Squid Game, is already the world’s biggest streaming service.

Stranger Things is one of Netflix's biggest hits. Pic: Netflix
Image:
Stranger Things is one of Netflix’s biggest hits. Pic: Netflix

Further drama could come in the form of a complaint by Paramount, which had previously made a bid for the whole company.

CNBC reported this week that Paramount had claimed the auction process was biased in favour of Netflix.

Entertainment news provider Variety has also reported that major studios fear an institutional crisis for Hollywood unless the move is blocked.

Ted Sarandos, the co-chief executive of Netflix, said: “By combining Warner Bros’ incredible library of shows and movies – from timeless classics like Casablanca and Citizen Kane to modern favourites like Harry Potter and Friends – with our culture-defining titles like Stranger Things, KPop Demon Hunters and Squid Game, we’ll be able to do that even better.

“Together, we can give audiences more of what they love and help define the next century of storytelling.”

Netflix shares were trading down more than 3% in pre-market deals but recovered much of that loss when Wall Street opened. Those for WBD were up by more than 2%.

David O’Hara, managing director at the advisory firm MKI Global Partners, said of the proposed deal: “The 12-18 month timeline signals a long antitrust review, but despite the overlap between Netflix and HBO Max, there is a path to approval through possible HBO divestment.

“Netflix would not accept a $5.8bn break fee if it didn’t see at least a small chance of the deal closing.”

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Four killed in latest US strike on alleged drug boat

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Four killed in latest US strike on alleged drug boat

Four people have been killed in the latest US strike on an alleged drug boat amid growing unease at the legality of the attacks.

The small vessel, which was hit in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday, is the 22nd destroyed by the US military on suspicion of drug trafficking.

It is the first such attack after a pause of nearly three weeks.

At least 87 people have now been killed during Donald Trump‘s “war” with drug cartels, which has also seen vessels targeted in the Caribbean Sea, including near Venezuela.

The vessel explodes in flames. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The vessel explodes in flames. Pic: Reuters

Video of the strike shows a small boat moving across the water before it is suddenly hit by a large explosion.

The boat is then seen engulfed in flames and billowing smoke as the camera zooms out.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, US Southern Command described those killed as “four male narco-terrorists“.

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“Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was carrying illicit narcotics and transiting along a known narco-trafficking route in the Eastern Pacific,” the post said.

The Trump administration has been weighing options to combat what it has portrayed as Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro‘s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

The socialist leader has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks amount to murder – and that President Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

It comes as an investigation in Washington DC has started looking into the very first strike on an alleged drug boat on 2 September in international waters near Venezuela.

On that occasion, US navy admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley is accused of ordering a follow-up strike to kill the survivors.

This reportedly followed demands from defence secretary Pete Hegseth that the navy “kill them all”.

The admiral briefed politicians in a series of closed-door briefings at the US Capitol on Thursday, and denied there was any such order from Mr Hegseth.

Admiral Frank 'Mitch' Bradley arrives at the US Capitol for a classified briefing on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Admiral Frank ‘Mitch’ Bradley arrives at the US Capitol for a classified briefing on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

Mr Hegseth said the admiral “made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat”.

But speaking on Air Force One last Sunday, the president said he was unaware of the second strike and would not have wanted it, though he backed Mr Hegseth.

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A video of the 2 September strike, which killed 11 people, has been shown to politicians, but accounts of its contents split along party lines.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said the survivors were “trying to flip a boat loaded with drugs bound for United States back over so they could stay in the fight”.

Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting at the White House on 2 December. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting at the White House on 2 December. Pic: Reuters

His party colleague, representative Rick Crawford of Arkansas, issued a statement saying the strikes were legal.

But representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said: “What I saw in that room was one of the most troubling things I’ve seen in my time in public service.

“You have two individuals in clear distress, without any means of locomotion, with a destroyed vessel.”

They “were killed by the United States”, he said.

Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, echoed his account.

Democrat representative Adam Smith of Washington (L) leaving the briefing. Pic: AP
Image:
Democrat representative Adam Smith of Washington (L) leaving the briefing. Pic: AP

He said the survivors were “basically two shirtless people clinging to the bow of a capsized and inoperable boat, drifting in the water – until the missiles come and kill them”.

Likewise, Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he was “deeply disturbed” by the video, and called for it to be made public.

“This briefing confirmed my worst fears about the nature of the Trump Administration’s military activities,” he said in a statement.

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Even if the campaign against the suspected drug-trafficking boats had been authorised by Congress, ex-military lawyers said the strike against survivors would be a war crime if the military knowingly killed survivors.

Attacks on combatants who are incapacitated, unconscious or shipwrecked are forbidden by the defence department’s law of war manual – provided the survivors abstain from hostilities and do not attempt to escape.

Firing upon shipwreck survivors is cited as an example of a “clearly illegal” order that should be refused.

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