The next US election is a year today. What will decide the outcome?
The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
Read more:
How much influence does America have over Israel?
Donald Trump Jr asks court sketch artist to ‘make me look sexy’
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
US
Well-fitted suits, pearls and ‘the same’ red tie: What Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’s fashion tells us about them
The style choices of politicians have long been scrutinised by voters and the media.
Women have historically been subject to more inspection for their looks than men.
But all politicians are communicating through their style, according to two experts.
“We receive most of our information, many of us, through screens and through the visuals,” says Hazel Clark, professor of design and fashion at the Parsons School of Design in New York.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has been leaning into trouser suits.
Ms Harris arrives to board Air Force Two in New York. Pic: AP
Ms Harris during a debate with Mr Trump. Pic: AP
“The well-fitted suit, the more masculine suit, is telling voters that she is not a politician’s wife, she is not the president’s wife, she is the president,” says Deirdre Clemente, professor of history at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.
She wore a dark suit to make her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention.
The presidential hopeful wore a dark suit to make her acceptance speech at the DNC. Pic: AP
The look “gives that sense of the legal profession, judges and authority. I think it was just saying ‘I’m here to be taken seriously, I can be your leader’,” says Ms Clark.
Many of the audience were wearing white, thought to be a reference to the suffragettes, who fought for women to have vote.
Many DNC audience members wore white as Kamala Harris made her acceptance speech. Pic: Reuters
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris wore a dark navy or black suit to make her acceptance speech at the DNC. Pic: Reuters
“I think there’s a lot of weight in the choice of white in the audience of the DNC that night and her choice of a black suit was a power move,” Ms Clemente said.
Donald Trump has had a consistent style for many years – he’s known for his dark blue suit and silky red tie.
Donald Trump at his 2017 inauguration. Pic: AP
Donald Trump speaks during a presidential debate with vice president Kamala Harris. Pic: AP
“He seems to have been wearing the same red tie since the 1970s. It seems to have gotten longer,” said Ms Clemente.
“It is his way of projecting power, confidence and stability.”
And his vice presidential pick JD Vance seems to have adapted his style to match.
Donald Trump with Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance at the Republican National Convention. Pic: AP
“It’s putting on a uniform to say we are all one, we are all following this person. I think sameness, perhaps, with the party as well,” said Ms Clark.
“With Trump it’s almost become like a costume now.”
Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance have been seen wearing similar clothing. Pic: Reuters
Harris often wears a pearl necklace, a reference to her college sorority Alpha Kappa Alpha, which was founded by black women at Howard University.
Kamala Harris wearing a pearl necklace in 2010. Pic: AP
“Her wearing of the necklace is absolutely a shout-out to all the women who have supported her and that sorority is central to that,” said Ms Clemente.
The vice president is also known for her love of Converse shoes.
Vice president Kamala Harris wearing Converse shoes as she arrives to speak at a campaign event. Pic: AP
The trainers, which are associated with American basketball culture, “are a powerful cultural tool because what she’s saying is these shoes are just like the ones you have in your closet”.
Vice president Kamala Harris speaks on the final day of the Democratic National Convention. Pic: AP
Mr Trump and his supporters often wear the instantly recognisable red Make America Great Again baseball cap.
“The MAGA hat has an incredible amount of power, especially here in battleground states,” said Ms Clemente. “You see MAGA hats all around.”
Donald Trump wearing a red MAGA hat in 2016 in Arizona. Pic: AP
Baseball caps are “ubiquitous in being used to signify something, it’s like having a slogan on your t-shirt”, says Ms Clark.
One accessory all US politicians are rarely seen without is an American flag pin badge on their lapel, which can be used to show patriotism.
It may also project a message that “we are all fighting for the same team” despite political differences, said Ms Clemente.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports6 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports11 months agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Environment1 year agoTesla advances Powerwall pilot project with German electric company