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Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead. 

But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.

He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.

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‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’

The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.

“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”

Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.

He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.

He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.

That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.

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Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
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Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza

What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?

The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.

The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.

What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.

A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.

A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP

Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas

So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.

America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.

But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?

Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Image:
Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP

Gaza fuel will only last a few days

What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.

Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.

There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.

Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.

These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.

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Smartphones and laptops among items excluded from reciprocal tariffs, US says

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Smartphones and laptops among items excluded from reciprocal tariffs, US says

Electronics such as smartphones and laptops will be excluded from reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration has said.

The move could help keep prices down for popular consumer items that are not usually made in the US.

Machines used to make semiconductors and flat-panel monitors would also be exempt, US Customs and Border Protection said.

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Iran says ‘indirect talks’ have taken place with US over nuclear programme – with more to follow

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Iran says 'indirect talks' have taken place with US over nuclear programme - with more to follow

Iran says “indirect talks” over the country’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme have taken place with US officials, with more to come next week.

The discussions on Saturday took place in Muscat, Oman, with the host nation’s officials mediating between representatives of Iran and the US, who were seated in separate rooms, according to Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry.

After the talks concluded, Oman and Iranian officials reported that Iran and the US had had agreed to hold more negotiations next week.

Oman’s foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi tweeted after the meeting, thanking Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for joining the negotiations aimed at “global peace, security and stability”.

“We will continue to work together and put further efforts to assist in arriving at this goal,” he added.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi (left) meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian Foreign Ministry/AP
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(L-R) Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian foreign ministry/AP

Iranian state media claimed the US and Iranian officials “briefly spoke in the presence of the Omani foreign minister” at the end of the talks – a claim Mr Araghchi echoed in a statement on Telegram.

He added the talks took place in a “constructive atmosphere based on mutual respect” and that they would continue next week.

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American officials did not immediately acknowledge the reports from Iran.

Mr Araghchi said before the meeting on Saturday there was a “chance for initial understanding on further negotiations if the other party [US] enters the talks with an equal stance”.

He told Iran’s state TV: “Our intention is to reach a fair and honourable agreement – from an equal footing.

“And if the other side has also entered from the same position, God willing, there will be a chance for an initial agreement that can lead to a path of negotiations.”

Reuters news agency said an Omani source told it the talks were focused on de-escalating regional tensions, prisoner exchanges and limited agreements to ease sanctions in exchange for controlling Iran’s nuclear programme.

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Trump on Monday: ‘We’re in direct talks with Iran’

President Donald Trump has insisted Tehran cannot get nuclear weapons.

He said on Monday that the talks would be direct, but Tehran officials insisted it would be conducted through an intermediary.

Mr Trump also warned Iran would be in “great danger” if negotiations fail.

“Hopefully those talks will be successful, it would be in Iran’s best interests if they are successful,” he said. “We hope that’s going to happen.”

He added Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon, and if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran”.

The comments came after Mr Trump’s previous warnings of possible military action against Iran if there is no deal over its nuclear programme.

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Saturday’s meeting marked the first between the countries since Mr Trump’s second term in the White House began.

During his first term, he withdrew the US from a deal between Iran and world powers designed to curb Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for sanctions relief.

He also reimposed US sanctions.

Iran has since far surpassed that deal’s limits on uranium enrichment.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is wholly for civilian energy purposes but Western powers accuse it of having a clandestine agenda.

Mr Witkoff came from talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Friday, as the US tries to broker an end to the war in Ukraine.

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Mahmoud Khalil: Judge rules Palestinian student activist can be deported from US

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Mahmoud Khalil: Judge rules Palestinian student activist can be deported from US

Palestinian student activist Mahmoud Khalil can be deported from the US, an immigration judge has ruled.

Mr Khalil, a postgraduate student at Columbia University’s school of international and public affairs, has been a prominent figure in the university’s pro-Palestinian student protest movement.

The 30-year-old has held a US permanent residency green card since 2024 and his wife is a US citizen.

FILE - Student negotiator Mahmoud Khalil is on the Columbia University campus in New York at a pro-Palestinian protest encampment on April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey, file)
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Mahmoud Khalil. Pic: AP

Mr Khalil was detained at his Columbia apartment building in Manhattan on 8 March, as agents from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) told him his student visa had been revoked.

It marked the first arrest in President Donald Trump’s crackdown on students who joined campus protests against the war in Gaza.

Mr Khalil, who acted as a mediator between protesters and university officials during pro-Palestinian demonstrations at New York’s Columbia University last year, is not accused of breaking any laws.

But the Trump administration says noncitizens who participate in demonstrations like he has should be expelled from the country for expressing views that the administration considers to be antisemitic and “pro-Hamas”.

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On Friday, immigration judge Jamee E Comans ruled that the government had the right to deport him, saying its belief that his presence posed “potentially serious foreign policy consequences” was enough to satisfy requirements for his deportation.

FILE - Members of the Columbia University Apartheid Divest group, including Sueda Polat, second from left, and Mahmoud Khalil, center, are surrounded by members of the media outside the Columbia University campus, Tuesday, April 30, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
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Mr Khalil, centre, surrounded by reporters outside the Columbia University campus in April last year. Pic: AP

He said the government had “established by clear and convincing evidence that he is removable”.

Mr Khalil’s lawyers have said they plan to fight the ruling via the Board of Immigration Appeals and can also pursue an asylum case on his behalf.

The judge gave them until 23 April to seek a waiver.

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His lawyer Marc van der Hout said after the ruling: “Today, we saw our worst fears play out: Mahmoud was subject to a charade of due process, a flagrant violation of his right to a fair hearing, and a weaponisation of immigration law to suppress dissent.”

Mr Khalil, who was born in a Palestinian refugee camp in Syria and holds Algerian citizenship, remains in the Louisiana immigration detention centre where federal authorities transferred him after his arrest.

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Jewish protesters against war in Gaza chant ‘Bring Mahmoud home now’

His defence team has said it is seeking a preliminary injunction from the federal court in New Jersey, which would release him from custody and could block the Trump administration from arresting and detaining people for supporting Palestinian people in Gaza.

The Trump administration has been cracking down on pro-Palestinian protesters at universities across the country.

After his arrest last month, the president said: “This is the first arrest of many to come. We know there are more students at Columbia and other universities across the country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump administration will not tolerate it.”

There have also been protests over the arrest of Mr Khalil, including by a Jewish group against the war in Gaza who stormed Trump Tower in New York last month.

Local police said 98 were arrested on charges including trespassing, obstruction and resisting arrest.

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