Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
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0:35
‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”
Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.
That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.
What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Image: A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Image: Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
Donald Trump has said he would try to return territory to Ukraine as he prepares to meet Vladimir Putin and lay the groundwork for a deal to bring an end to the war.
“Russia has occupied a big portion of Ukraine. They’ve occupied some very prime territory. We’re going to try and get some of that territory back for Ukraine,” the US president said at a White House news conference ahead of Friday’s summit in Alaska.
Mr Trump also said: “There’ll be some land swapping going on. I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody, to the good of Ukraine.”
He said he’s going to see what Mr Putin “has in mind” to end the three-and-a-half-year full-scale invasion.
Image: Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
And he said if it’s a “fair deal,” he will share it with European and NATO leaders, as well as Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who have been liaising closely with Washington ahead of the meeting.
Asked if Mr Zelenskyy was invited to the summit with Mr Putin in Alaska, Mr Trump said the Ukrainian leader “wasn’t a part of it”.
“I would say he could go, but he’s gone to a lot of meetings. You know, he’s been there for three and a half years – nothing happened,” Mr Trump added.
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The US president said Mr Putin wants to get the war “over with” and “get involved” in possible talks but acknowledged Moscow’s attacks haven’t stopped.
“I’ve said that a few times and I’ve been disappointed because I’d have a great call with him and then missiles would be lobbed into Kyiv or some other place,” he said.
Mr Trump said he will tell Mr Putin “you’ve got to end this war, you’ve got to end it,” but that “it’s not up to me” to make a deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Image: Vladimir Putin is set to meet Donald Trump in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
Zelenskyy says Russia ‘wants to buy time’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russia “wants to buy time, not end the war”.
“It is obvious that the Russians simply want to buy time, not end the war,” he wrote in a post on X, after a phone call with Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Image: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pic: Reuters
“The situation on the battlefield and Russia’s wicked strikes on civilian infrastructure and ordinary people prove this clearly.”
Mr Zelenskyy said the two “agreed that no decisions concerning Ukraine’s future and the security of our people can be made without Ukraine’s participation”, just as “there can be no decisions without clear security guarantees”.
Sanctions against Russia must remain in force and be “constantly strengthened,” he added.
European leaders meet ahead of call with Trump
Meanwhile, European officials have been holding meetings ahead of a phone call with Mr Trump on Wednesday.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has been speaking to foreign ministers virtually, saying on X that work “on more sanctions against Russia, more military support for Ukraine and more support for Ukraine’s budgetary needs and accession process to join the EU” is under way.
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3:23
‘Russians want to carry on fighting’
Over the weekend, European leaders released a joint statement, welcoming Mr Trump’s “work to stop the killing in Ukraine”.
“We are convinced that only an approach that combines active diplomacy, support to Ukraine and pressure on the Russian Federation to end their illegal war can succeed,” read the statement.
It was signed by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“We underline our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” they said.
Despite Donald Trump’s efforts to convince Vladimir Putin to commit to a ceasefire and negotiations, Russian attacks on Ukraine have only intensified in the past few months.
Ukraine’s president has said that, in the past week, Russia launched more than 1,000 air bombs, nearly 1,400 drones and multiple missile strikes on Ukraine.
On 9 July, Russia carried out its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, launching more than 740 drones and missiles, breaking its records from previous weeks.
Furthermore, Mr Zelenskyy has said Russia is preparing for new offensives.
He described it as a “feel out” meeting “to see what the parameters” are, and stressed “it’s not up to me to make a deal.”
A strategic preemption perhaps, setting expectations low, and preparing the public for failure.
But he remains wedded to the notion that “land swapping” will shape any deal to end the war in Ukraine.
“Good stuff” and “bad stuff” for both sides, he said, positioning himself as the pragmatic mediator between the two.
He expressed irritation with Mr Zelenskyy’s assertion that he doesn’t have the constitutional power to concede land, though did say he hopes to get “prime territory” back for Ukraine.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not be attending the summit. Pic: AP
The dealmaker-in-chief
Mr Trump promised to brief the Ukrainian president and European leaders immediately after his meeting with Mr Putin.
And he voiced confidence in his ability to quickly assess the potential for a deal, boasting his business acumen.
“At the end of the meeting, probably the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made,” he said.
Asked how he would know, he replied: “That’s what I do, make deals.”
Donald Trump has announced he is going to deploy National Guard troops to Washington DC to make the US capital’s streets safer.
At a White House news conference on Monday, the president said the city’s police would come under federal control as he said the murder rate in DC was “higher than” in some of the “worst places on earth”.
He said he was sending in the troops to “re-establish law, order, and public safety”.
Image: Members of the National Guard outside the US Capitol. File Pic: AP
Mr Trump said he was announcing a “historic action to rescue our nation’s capital from crime, bloodshed, bedlam and squalor and worse.
“This is liberation day in DC and we are going to take our capital back.”
The president continued: “So today we are declaring a public safety emergency in the district of Columbia.”
He added it is not just about safety but also the “beautification” of the city.
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“Washington DC should be one of the safest, cleanest and most beautiful cities anywhere in the world and we’re going to make it that.”
Last week, the Republican president directed federal law enforcement agencies to increase their presence in Washington for seven days, with the option “to extend as needed”.
Image: A member of the National Guard patrols the area outside of the US Capitol in 2021.
File pic: AP
On Friday night, federal agencies including the Secret Service, the FBI and the US Marshals Service assigned more than 120 officers and agents to assist in Washington.
National Guard troops usually belong to individual states and personnel in many cases are trained to help with emergencies that those states have to deal with, such as natural disasters.
Since they are the reserve force of the US military, National Guard troops are usually part-time, meaning that they have other jobs as well.
Minority leader of the US House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, responded to Mr Trump’s announcement on Monday with a post on X which read: “Violent crime in Washington, DC is at a thirty-year low.
“Donald Trump has no basis to take over the local police department. And zero credibility on the issue of law and order.
“Get lost.”
In a social media post on Sunday, Mr Trump emphasised the removal of Washington’s homeless population, though it was unclear where the thousands of people would go.
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“The Homeless have to move out, IMMEDIATELY,” Mr Trump wrote.
“We will give you places to stay, but FAR from the Capital. The Criminals, you don’t have to move out. We’re going to put you in jail where you belong.”