The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
Image: Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
Image: Joe Biden. Pic: AP
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
US director and actor Rob Reiner and his wife have been found dead at their home in Los Angeles, Sky News’s US partner NBC News has reported.
A source close to Reiner told the outlet he and his wife, Michele Singer Reiner, apparently died of stab wounds.
A family member is being questioned by investigators, a law enforcement official told the AP news agency.
A 78-year-old man and a 68-year-old woman were found dead inside the property, a Los Angeles Fire Department official said. Reiner turned 78 in March.
Detectives from the LAPD Robbery Homicide Division have been assigned to the case, the force said in a statement.
‘Apparent homicide’
LAPD Captain Mike Bland said they were investigating an “apparent homicide”.
Reports said there was a large police presence at the house.
Reiner starred in Sleepless In Seattle and The Wolf Of Wall Street and directed This Is Spinal Tap, The Princess Bride, When Harry Met Sally and A Few Good Men.
Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass said Reiner’s death was a devastating loss for the city.
“Rob Reiner’s contributions reverberate throughout American culture and society, and he has improved countless lives through his creative work and advocacy fighting for social and economic justice,” she said.
“An acclaimed actor, director, producer, writer, and engaged political activist, he always used his gifts in service of others.”
‘Creative, funny, and beloved’
Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said: “It’s hard to think of anyone more remarkable and excellent in every field and endeavour they pursued. Rob was creative, funny, and beloved. And in all of their endeavours, Michelle was his indispensable partner, intellectual resource, and loving wife.
“Personally, Rob cared deeply about people and demonstrated that in his civic activities – whether by supporting the First 5 initiative or fighting against Prop 8 in California. Civically, he was a champion for the First Amendment and the creative rights of artists. And professionally, he was an iconic figure in film who made us laugh, cry and think with the movies he created.”
Image: Reiner and his wife Michele Singer Reiner. Pic: AP
Actress Kathy Bates told NBC News: “I’m horrified hearing this terrible news. Absolutely devastated. I loved Rob. He was brilliant and kind, a man who made films of every genre to challenge himself as an artist. He also fought courageously for his political beliefs. He changed the course of my life. Michelle was a gifted photographer. She shot my beautiful photos for the Misery campaign. My heart breaks for them both. My thoughts are with their family.”
Reiner was married to Michele Singer Reiner since 1989, after they met while he was directing When Harry Met Sally. They have three children together.
Michele used to work as a photographer and took the photo of Donald Trump that appears on the cover of his book Trump: The Art Of The Deal.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Police are releasing a man detained in connection with the fatal shooting on the campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island.
Two people were killed and nine others, all or nearly all of whom are also believed to be students, were injured in the attack on Saturday.
Earlier, three senior law enforcement officials briefed on the investigation told Sky’s US partner NBC News the detained man, who is being released, was 24-year-old Benjamin Erickson, who had served several years in the US army.
The release means that the suspected gunman remains at large.
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Speaking at a news conference, Providence mayor Brett Smiley said: “We know that this is likely to cause fresh anxiety for our community and we want to reiterate what we said earlier… which is ever since the initial call, now a day and a half ago, we have not received any credible or specific threats to the Providence community.
“So the status of safety in our community remains unchanged, and we believe that you remain safe in our community.”
Mr Smiley said there would be a continuation of an enhanced police presence throughout the city and on the university campus.
“We have not yet solved this case, but I am confident we are going to do that in the near future,” Rhode Island attorney general Peter Neronha said.
Image: Part of the Brown University campus, the right side of the C-shaped block is the engineering building. Pic: Reuters
The shooting happened inside a classroom on the first floor of the Barus & Holley engineering building, a seven-storey structure home to much of the university’s engineering and physics study and research.
Brown University provost Frank Doyle confirmed final exams were taking place in the engineering building when the gunman opened fire.
Image: Pics: AP
A police official told the AP news agency the gunman fired more than 40 9mm rounds. A gun has not been recovered, but officers did seize two loaded 30-round magazines.
A video released by officials shows a suspect walking down a street away from the campus and turning a corner, dressed in dark, loose-fitting clothing.
Image: Pics: AP
Seven people injured in the shooting were in a stable condition, the Providence mayor, Mr Smiley, said. One remained in critical but stable condition, while another had been discharged, he added.
Brown is a private university with roughly 7,300 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate students.