The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
Image: Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
Image: Joe Biden. Pic: AP
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
A gunman suspected of having started a fire to “ambush” firefighters in Idaho and kill them has been named as Wess Val Roley.
The 20-year-old is said to have aspired to become a firefighter before the attack on Sunday, which saw him allegedly perched in a sniper position, firing at the firefighters as they sought to put out a fire, which authorities believe he intentionally started.
Two firefighters were killed and one was injured as they came under gunfire over several hours, according to authorities.
Image: An armoured police vehicle near where the firefighters were attacked. Pic: Reuters
They said the incident took place after they asked him to move his vehicle.
Roley was later found dead in the mountains with a firearm nearby.
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Sky News’ US partner network NBC quoted Roley’s grandfather,Dale Roley, as saying “something must have snapped” in his grandson for him to commit such violence.
“He actually really respected law enforcement,” Mr Roley said. “He loved firefighters. It didn’t make sense that he was shooting firefighters. Maybe he got rejected or something.”
Mr Roley added: “I know he had been in contact to get a job with a fire department.
“He wanted to be part of a team that he sort of idolised.”
Bob Norris, the sheriff of Kootenai County, said on Sunday: “We do believe that the suspect started the fire.
“This was a total ambush. These firefighters did not have a chance.”
Image: The firefighters were responding to a blaze. Pic: Reuters
Officers said they were “taking sniper fire” near the city of Coeur d’Alene on Sunday afternoon, with crews responding to a fire at Canfield Mountain.
Mr Norris said the gunman had used high-powered sporting rifles to fire rapidly at first responders. The ambush continued for several hours.
More than 300 officers from city, county, state and federal levels responded. Two helicopters were deployed with snipers onboard.
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Donald Trump has launched his latest attack on the US central bank, saying the interest rate setters had “failed”.
Over the weekend, he said he wanted interest rates to be 1% and that he would “love” for Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, to resign.
It comes less than two weeks since he called Mr Powell a “stupid person” and said: “Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?”
In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Mr Trump said: “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, and his entire board, should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to the United States.”
It was not clear what Mr Trump was referring to when referencing “this”.
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“If they were doing their job properly, our country would be saving trillions of dollars in interest cost. The board just sits there and watches, so they are equally to blame,” the post read.
“We should be paying 1% interest, or better!”
A message to Mr Powell was also written on a leaderboard of countries’ interest rates, ranked from low to high, showing the US ranked 35th, coming behind the United Arab Emirates and the UK.
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The Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, had held the cost of borrowing at 4.25%-4.5%. Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.
Despite the threats from Mr Trump and from his press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who told reporters inflation was “completely diminished”, markets are not expecting a cut when the Fed next considers interest rates next month.
In fact, no reduction is currently anticipated until September.
Are interest rates really that high in the US?
Not since December last year has the rate been cut.
The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.
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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know
Inflation – the overall rate of price rises – has ticked up to 2.4% while the Fed said it expected further rises due to tariffs.
Interest rates have been hiked in an effort to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.
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It has meant the cost of borrowing is slightly higher than in the UK, where the Bank of England has set rates at 4.25%.
It’s also above the level of euro-using countries, where the European Central Bank has set rates at 2%.
What’s the reaction been?
Mr Powell has not retaliated, and the Fed declined to comment on Monday.
There was little market reaction as major US stock indexes had hit record highs amid hopes of trade deals with countries, rather than a return of country-specific tariffs.
Ironically, the dollar has been at a more than three-year low over worries of the US deficit expanding further with Mr Trump’s so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill” being voted on.
The fact that interest rate cuts could come in recent months is also contributing, as currencies tend to be supported by higher rates as they can attract foreign investment.
In the past, comments about replacing Mr Powell, appointed by President Trump in 2017, have led to concern from investors, which saw Mr Trump say he would not replace the chair before his term ends in May 2026.
Donald Trump has said the US government has found a buyer for TikTok that he will reveal “in about two weeks”.
The president told Fox News “it’s a group of very wealthy people”, adding: “I think I’ll probably need China approval, I think President Xi will probably do it.”
TikTok was ordered last year to find a new owner for its US operation – or face a ban – after politicians said they feared sensitive data about Americans could be passed to the Chinese government.
The video app’s owner, Bytedance, has repeatedly denied such claims.
It originally had a deadline of 19 January to find a buyer – and many users were shocked when it “went dark” for a number of hours when that date came round, before later being restored.
However, President Trump has now extended the deadline several times.
The last extension was on 19 June, when he signed an executive order pushing it back to 17 September.
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Mr Trump’s latest comments suggest multiple people coming together to take control of the app in the US.
Among those rumoured to be potential buyers include YouTube superstar Mr Beast, US search engine startup Perplexity AI, and Kevin O’Leary – an investor from Shark Tank (the US version of Dragons’ Den).
Bytedance said in April that it was still talking to the US government, but there were “differences on many key issues”.
It’s believed the Chinese government will have to approve any agreement.
Image: The president said the identity of the buyer would be disclosed in about two weeks. Pic: Fox News
President Trump’s interview with Fox News also touched on the upcoming end of the pause in US tariffs on imported goods.
On April 9, he granted a 90-day reprieve for countries threatened with a tariff of more than 10% to give them time to negotiate.
Deals have already been struck with some countries, including the UK.
The president said he didn’t think he would need to push back the 9 July deadline and that letters would be sent out imminently stating what tariff each country would face.
“We’ll look at the deficit we have – or whatever it is with the country; we’ll look at how the country treats us – are they good, are they not so good. Some countries, we don’t care – we’ll just send a high number out,” he said.
“But we’re going to be sending letters out starting pretty soon. We don’t have to meet, we have all the numbers.”
The president announced the tariffs in April, arguing they were correcting an unfair trade relationship and would return lost prosperity to US industries such as car-making.