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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

A poll released on Sunday showed Mr Trump ahead of the president in five key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

Read more:
How much influence does America have over Israel?

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
Image:
Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

Biden. Pic: AP
Image:
Joe Biden. Pic: AP

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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Warships, the CIA and potential ‘precision attacks’ – the US-Venezuela crisis explained

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Warships, the CIA and potential 'precision attacks' - the US-Venezuela crisis explained

US warships in the region, the green light for covert operations, and deadly strikes on what the Trump administration claims are “narco terrorists” – could America’s next move be to strike Venezuela?

President Donald Trump has accused President Nicolas Maduro of leading an organised crime gang (without providing evidence) and declined to answer when questioned if the CIA has the authority to assassinate him.

In return, the Venezuelan leader has accused Mr Trump of seeking regime change and of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country, as he appealed to the American people for peace.

The rhetoric coming out of the White House, coupled with the presence of military ships in the region, has raised questions about a possible armed conflict between the US and Venezuela.

The question in the air is: Will the US actually attack Venezuela?

The USS Gravely destroyer arrives in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 26 October. Pic: AP
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The USS Gravely destroyer arrives in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 26 October. Pic: AP

What are US warships doing?

The docking of the USS Gravely guided missile destroyer in the capital of Trinidad and Tobago – just 25 miles from the coast of Venezuela – is the latest incident to escalate tensions.

Venezuela’s government condemned the arrival and called it a provocation by Trinidad and Tobago and the US.

The USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier – the largest warship in the world – is also moving closer to Venezuela.

Satellite image shows USS Gerald R Ford on 25 October off the coast of Croatia, a day after the announcement it would be deployed to the Caribbean. Pic: EU Copernicus
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Satellite image shows USS Gerald R Ford on 25 October off the coast of Croatia, a day after the announcement it would be deployed to the Caribbean. Pic: EU Copernicus

It comes as the US has acknowledged carrying out at least seven strikes since September on vessels near Venezuela that it claims were transporting drugs, killing at least 32 people.

Venezuela’s government says the strikes are illegal, amount to murder, and are acts of aggression.

Earlier this month, Trump confirmed he has authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations – including lethal operations – in Venezuela.

The CIA has a long history of operations in Latin America, with actions varying widely from direct paramilitary engagement to intelligence gathering and support roles with little to no physical footprint.

What could happen?

To get an idea of what could happen next, Sky News spoke to Dr Carlos Solar, an expert on Latin American security at the RUSI defence thinktank.

He says the level of military strategy the US is applying around Venezuela seems “unproportionate” for the task of tackling drug trafficking.

In Venezuela, the government has civilians trained in the use of weapons to defend the country in the event of a US attack. Pic: AP
Image:
In Venezuela, the government has civilians trained in the use of weapons to defend the country in the event of a US attack. Pic: AP

“A build-up this size can only suggest there’s a strategic military goal,” he added.

Dr Solar says the role of the CIA is “not surprising”, as the US often deploys spying capabilities in countries deemed adversarial.

“With the chances of a military conflict looming, having the most intelligence capable on the ground would be reasonable.”

The world's largest warship, the USS Gerald R Ford, has been tasked to the Caribbean. File pic: Reuters
Image:
The world’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R Ford, has been tasked to the Caribbean. File pic: Reuters

Asked what could happen next, Dr Solar told Sky News: “One scenario is Trump authorises a round of long-range precision attacks in Venezuela’s territory linked to drug trafficking operations, eventually forcing Maduro to reciprocate later.

“We saw this early in the year when the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilitates and Tehran returned missiles to US bases in Qatar.

“If the US decides to move more strongly, destroying all critical military targets from the Venezuelan forces, then the US could have Maduro surrender and leave the country immediately.

“This would be the least disruptive without causing greater destabilisation of the country.”

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Venezuelan President: ‘We don’t want a war’

What does Trump say about Venezuela?

Trump said his reasons for the strikes on vessels were the migration of Venezuelans, allegedly including former prisoners, to the US – and drug trafficking.

“I authorised for two reasons really,” he said. “Number one, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America…they came in through the border. They came in because we had an open border,” he told reporters. “And the other thing are drugs.”

He has accused Venezuela of trafficking huge amounts of cocaine into the US, and alleged Mr Maduro is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang – a claim most of his own intelligence agencies do not support.

President Donald Trump is currently on a tour of Asia. Pic: Reuters
Image:
President Donald Trump is currently on a tour of Asia. Pic: Reuters

The US leader has not provided evidence for the claim about prisoners, and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay pointed out the fentanyl drug that is causing destruction in America is largely manufactured in Mexico, not Venezuela.

“We are looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” Mr Trump added. It is not clear what actions this could entail.

The Pentagon recently disclosed to US Congress that the president has determined the US is engaged in “a non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.

When asked if the CIA has the authority to execute Maduro, which would be a massive intervention, Trump declined to answer. Instead, he said: “I think Venezuela is feeling heat.”

Read more:
Venezuela opposition leader wins Nobel Peace Prize

Trump may have another motive in escalation of war on drugs

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters

What does Venezuela’s leader say?

Maduro has been in power since 2013, including re-elections in contests marred by accusations of fraud.

The last decade has seen his country gripped by spiralling hyperinflation and a humanitarian crisis that has seen an estimated eight million Venezuelans flee the country.

As the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier moved closer to Venezuela, Maduro accused the US government of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country.

Venezuelan ambassador to the UN, Samuel Moncada, holds a newspaper article about a recent US military strike. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Venezuelan ambassador to the UN, Samuel Moncada, holds a newspaper article about a recent US military strike. Pic: Reuters

“They promised they would never again get involved in a war, and they are fabricating a war that we will avoid,” he said in a national address.

“They are fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one,” he added, perhaps a reference to Trump’s claim that he is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang and that his country trafficks cocaine into the US.

“Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves.”

Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian National Guard. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Guard. Pic: Reuters

Tren de Aragua, which traces its roots to a Venezuelan prison, is not known for having a big role in global drug trafficking but instead for its involvement in contract killings, extortion, and people smuggling.

Venezuela has raised a complaint to the UN Security Council and demanded accountability from the US.

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Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs scheduled for release from prison in 2028

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Sean 'Diddy' Combs scheduled for release from prison in 2028

Sean “Diddy” Combs is expected to spend around three years in prison, federal inmate records show.

The 55-year-old music mogul was given a 50-month sentence and a $500,000 fine earlier this month for flying people around the US and abroad for sexual encounters, including his then-girlfriend and male sex workers, in violation of prostitution laws.

According to Sky News’ US partner NBC News, his expected release date is 8 May 2028, according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

Prosecutors had pushed for Combs, serving his first criminal conviction, to serve 11 years in prison.

Combs, who has been detained since his arrest in September 2024, was acquitted on more serious charges of racketeering and sex trafficking.

He pleaded not guilty and maintained his innocence.

‘Disgusting, shameful and sick’

Combs, who told a federal district court in New York he admitted his past behaviour was “disgusting, shameful and sick”, is set to appeal the conviction and sentence.

During a seven-week trial, four days of testimony was heard from Cassie, now Cassie Venture Fine, who told the court she was coerced and sometimes blackmailed into sexual encounters with male workers.

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Jurors were also shown video clips of Combs dragging and beating Ms Fine in a Los Angeles hotel hallway, following one of those encounters.

She submitted a letter to the judge, ahead of the sentencing, calling Combs a “manipulator” and would fear for her safety if he was immediately released.

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Trump raises tariffs on Canada by 10% in response to Reagan advert

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Trump raises tariffs on Canada by 10% in response to Reagan advert

Donald Trump has announced he will be raising tariffs on imports of Canadian goods by an extra 10% because of an anti-tariff advert aired in Ontario.

The advert used the words of former US president Ronald Reagan to criticise US tariffs.

A furious Mr Trump on Friday cancelled “all trade negotiations” with Canada.

Doug Ford, Ontario’s premier, said he would pull the advert from Monday, but it continued to run over the weekend, including during the first World Series game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Mr Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform: “Their Advertisement was to be taken down, IMMEDIATELY, but they let it run last night during the World Series, knowing that it was a FRAUD.

“Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now.”

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TV advert deepens trade rift between Trump and Canada

Mr Trump claimed the advert misrepresented the position of Mr Reagan, a two-term president and a beloved figure in the Republican Party.

Mr Reagan had used much of his 1987 address, featured in Ontario’s ad, spelling out the case against tariffs.

Mr Trump said the advert was intended to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of arguments scheduled for next month which could decide whether the president has the power to impose his sweeping tariffs.

It was not immediately clear when the 10% hike would come into effect, or whether it would apply to all Canadian goods.

Canada – which is America’s closest ally, and one of their biggest trading partners – has been hit hard by US tariffs, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been trying to work with Mr Trump to lower them.

Mark Carney and Donald Trump. File pic: Reuters
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Mark Carney and Donald Trump. File pic: Reuters

More than three-quarters of Canadian exports go to the US, and nearly 3.6bn Canadian dollars (2.7bn US dollars) worth of goods and services cross the border daily.

Many Canadian products have been hit with a 35% tariff, while steel and aluminium face rates of 50%.

Energy products have a lower rate of 10%, while other goods covered by the US-Canada-Mexico Agreement are exempt. That trade agreement is slated for review.

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Mr Trump negotiated the deal in his first term but has since soured on it.

The US president and Mr Carney will both attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia which started on Sunday, but Mr Trump has said he has no intention of meeting Mr Carney there.

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