The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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0:57
Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
Image: Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
Image: Joe Biden. Pic: AP
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
Images and video of Jeffrey Epstein’s private Caribbean island have been released by politicians in the US.
Democrats on the House Oversight Committee said on X that they were “a harrowing look behind Epstein’s closed doors”.
“We are releasing these photos and videos to ensure public transparency in our investigation and to help piece together the full picture of Epstein’s horrific crimes,” said representative Robert Garcia.
“We won’t stop fighting until we deliver justice for the survivors.”
The images show empty courtyards, bedrooms and other rooms from his villa.
Image: .
Mr Garcia said: “It’s time for President Trump to release all the files, now.”
President Trump recently approved their releaseafter US Congress voted overwhelmingly in favour.
More on Jeffrey Epstein
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The US Department of Justice now has until mid-December to release thousands of files linked to civil and criminal cases involving Epstein.
But much more is set to follow as the Epstein Files Transparency Act demands release of all files relating to Epstein, including investigations, prosecutions and custodial matters, as well as records connected to Ghislaine Maxwell.
Politicians have said the files’ release is critical to uncovering whether powerful figures have received special treatment or protection.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
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0:22
Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow
They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.
According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.
The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.
But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Putin thinks he’s winning…
Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.
It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.
It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.
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0:47
‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’
…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned
The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.
It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.
With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.
As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.
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US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has cited the “fog of war” in defence of a follow-up strike earlier this year on a boat alleged to be carrying drugs in the Caribbean Sea.
His comments came on the day the Pope urged Donald Trump not to try to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro using military force.
Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday alongside Mr Trump, Mr Hegseth said the US had paused strikes because it was hard to find drug boats.
But strikes against drug traffickers would continue, he said.
Image: Pope Leo XIV talks to reporters as he returns from visits to Turkey and Lebanon. Pic: AP
During the cabinet meeting at the White House, Mr Hegseth said that he did not see that there were survivors in the water when the second strike was ordered and launched in early September, saying that “the thing was on fire”.
Mr Hegseth also said he “didn’t stick around” for the rest of the mission following the first strike, adding that the admiral in charge had “made the right call” in ordering it, which he “had complete authority to do”.
The Washington Post first reported that Mr Hegseth issued a verbal order for the second strike that killed survivors on the boat.
On Monday, the White House said that Navy vice admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley acted “within his authority and the law” when he ordered the second strike.
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1:07
Pope pleads to Trump not to oust Venezuelan president by force
Asked if he supported the second strike on a boat in the Caribbean Sea in September, President Trump said he “didn’t know anything” and “still haven’t gotten a lot of information because I rely on Pete”, referencing Mr Hegseth.
On Tuesday, Pope Leo, the first American pontiff, said it would be better to attempt dialogue or impose economic pressure on Venezuela if Washington wanted to pursue change there.
The Trump administration has been weighing options to combat what it has portrayed as Mr Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.
The socialist Venezuelan president has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.
Asked during a news conference about President Trump’s threats to remove Mr Maduro by force, the Pope said: “It is better to search for ways of dialogue, or perhaps pressure, including economic pressure.”
He added that Washington should search for other ways to achieve change “if that is what they want to do in the United States”.
The Pope was speaking as he flew home from visiting Turkey and Lebanon – his first overseas trip in the role.
Image: Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Pic: Reuters
Image: A map showing Venezuelan military facilities
The president held a rally in Caracas amid heightened tensions with Mr Trump’s administration, which has been targeting what it says are boats carrying drug smugglers.
Mr Trump met his national security team on Monday evening, having warned last week that land strikes would start “very soon”.
It has not been confirmed what was discussed at the meeting. But White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: “There’s many options at the president’s disposal that are on the table – and I’ll let him speak on those.”
US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats it claims were carrying narcotics to its shores over the last few months.
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20:08
Did Pete Hegseth commit a war crime?
Mr Maduro – considered a dictator by many in the West – said on Monday that Venezuelans were ready “to defend [the country] and lead it to the path of peace”.
“We have lived through 22 weeks of aggression that can only be described as psychological terrorism,” he said.
Venezuela has said the boat attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder – and that Mr Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.