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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

A poll released on Sunday showed Mr Trump ahead of the president in five key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

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How much influence does America have over Israel?

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
Image:
Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

Biden. Pic: AP
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Joe Biden. Pic: AP

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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How Trump’s Republicans are literally redrawing maps to help stay in power

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How Trump's Republicans are literally redrawing maps to help stay in power

Legislators in Texas have approved new congressional maps designed to boost Donald Trump’s Republicans at next year’s midterm elections.

Known as redistricting, the state’s re-drawn map would shift conservative voters into districts currently held by Democrats, and combine other districts with a Democratic majority into one.

The process is not new, and is completely legal – unless it is ruled to be racially motivated – but typically occurs every 10 years after the US Census to account for population changes.

The push to redistrict early came from Mr Trump himself, who wants to bolster his chances of preserving the slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives at next year’s crucial midterms.

But by trying to re-draw the maps in the red state of Texas, Democrats have lined up their own counter redistricting effort in the blue state of California.

If more states decide to re-consider their maps, it has the potential to largely determine the outcome of the 2026 midterms, before a single vote is cast.

What’s happening in Texas?

Mr Trump first said he wanted politicians in Texas to redraw the state’s congressional district in July. The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, followed up on the president’s demands, calling for a special session to vote on new maps.

“Please pass this map ASAP,” Mr Trump urged on his Truth Social platform on Monday. “Thank you, Texas!”

Republican Texas State Representative Todd Hunter brought about the legislation. Pic: AP
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Republican Texas State Representative Todd Hunter brought about the legislation. Pic: AP

In an effort to try to make passing the vote as difficult as possible, Democrats fled the state for two weeks. Per parliamentary rules, if enough Democrats refuse to take part in the special session, the Texas House can’t meet.

On their return, each Democratic politician was assigned a police escort to ensure they attended the session.

Nicole Collier, who refused the police escort, stayed in the House for two nights, and was pictured with an eye mask and blanket trying to sleep at her desk.

Nicole Collier sleeps in the House chamber after refusing a police escort. Pic: Reuters
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Nicole Collier sleeps in the House chamber after refusing a police escort. Pic: Reuters

Once the debate started, the doors to the chamber were locked and all members wanting to leave had to get a permission slip to do so.

After nearly eight hours, the legislation to formally change the map was passed 88-52 on Wednesday.

It now needs to be approved by the Texas Senate, where Republicans hold a majority, and then signed off by Mr Abbott, who has already committed to doing just that.

Activists protest against mid-decade redistricting in Texas. Pic: AP
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Activists protest against mid-decade redistricting in Texas. Pic: AP

Why re-draw maps?

Republicans in Texas have openly said the rally to re-draw congressional maps is in the party’s interest.

Todd Hunter, the Republican who wrote the legislation formally creating the new map, told the House: “The underlying goal of this plan is straight forward: improve Republican political performance.”

He said the dispute is nothing more than a partisan fight, and made reference to the US Supreme Court having previously allowed politicians to redraw districts for partisan purposes.

Read more from Sky News:
Trump sets red line on Ukraine
Trump risks ‘very big mistake’ with Putin

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Democrats hit back, arguing the disagreement was about more than partisanship.

“In a democracy, people choose their representatives,” representative Chris Turner said. “This bill flips that on its head and lets politicians in Washington, DC, choose their voters.”

Another Democrat, John H Bucy, blamed the president, saying: “This is Donald Trump’s map.

“It clearly and deliberately manufactures five more Republican seats in Congress because Trump himself knows that the voters are rejecting his agenda.”

How have Democrats responded?

The move by Republicans has triggered a tit-for-tat move by the Democrats, who are due to meet in California on Thursday to revise the state’s maps in order to gain five more seats.

To enact the same powers in California will prove harder, as state laws require an independent commission to take responsibility for redistricting – meaning it would need to be approved by voters in a special election.

In other blue states, rules are even tighter. For example, in New York, they cannot draw new maps until 2028, and even then, only with voter approval.

Despite the obstacles, California governor Gavin Newsom confirmed a redistricting election will take place in the state on 4 November, in order to “fight fire with fire”.

His plan has gained support from former president Barack Obama, who said it was necessary to “stave off” the Republicans’ move in Texas.

Barack Obama attends Trump's inauguration in January. Pic: The New York Times via AP
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Barack Obama attends Trump’s inauguration in January. Pic: The New York Times via AP

Could this affect the midterms?

The midterms in November next year will likely be on a knife edge.

Whatever the outcome, it could shape the remainder of Mr Trump’s second term in office. A Democrat majority would make it tougher for him to pass laws.

Currently, Republicans control the House of Representatives in Washington, 219-212 (excluding four open vacancies). A party needs 218 seats for a majority.

In the Senate, the Republicans hold a similarly slim majority of 53 to 45.

Gavin Newsom is framing his response as the 'election rigging response act'. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Gavin Newsom is framing his response as the ‘election rigging response act’. Pic: Reuters

However, the incumbent president’s party typically loses seats in the midterms.

In the 2018 midterms, during Mr Trump’s first tenure as president, the Democrats took control of the House. Likewise, in 2022, when Joe Biden was president, the House swung back to the Republicans.

It’s important to note that 27 House seats will remain in states that are unlikely to redraw their maps, according to The New York Times.

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In a bid to avoid a repeat of history, Mr Trump is pushing for redistricting in states beyond Texas. Top Republicans in states like Indiana, Missouri, and Florida continue to talk about tweaking their maps to create more Republican-controlled congressional seats.

While Ohio has to legally redraw, the timing of which could benefit the Republicans, and, by extension, Mr Trump.

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Trump: I won’t send US troops to Ukraine – but might help by air

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Trump: I won't send US troops to Ukraine - but might help by air

Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.

A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.

Ukraine war – follow the latest developments

Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.

She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.

Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.

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What security guarantees could work?

Zelenskyy-Putin summit

It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.

Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.

Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.

European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.

A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.

Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.

Read more on Sky News:
‘Don’t trust Russia,’ diplomat warns
Why peace may be further away, not closer
Five key takeaways from White House talks

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

Trump still has doubts about Putin

Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.

“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.

He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.

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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.

Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about ‘very big mistake’ with Putin

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about 'very big mistake' with Putin

Ukrainians have given a lukewarm reaction to this week’s White House summit.

There is bafflement and unease here after US President Donald Trump switched sides to support his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, dropping calls for a ceasefire and proposing that Ukraine surrender territory.

While allies are talking up the prospects of progress, people here remain unconvinced.

Ukraine war latest – Trump rules out using US troops

Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

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What security guarantees could work?

The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.

MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.

“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”

For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.

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Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.

They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.

We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.

Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
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Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations

He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.

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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”

Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.

But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.

Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.

Read more on Sky News:
Putin wasn’t there, but influenced summit
Peace further away, not closer
Five takeaways from White House talks

Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.

While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.

Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.

If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.

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