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In downtown Miami at what is usually a centre for the performing arts, preparations are under way for a piece of political theatre.

But the man who should be the lead act is setting up his own show a few miles up the road.

Posters for the third Republican debate have been slapped on every spare inch of the Adrienne Arsht Center with metal barriers marking the perimeter of the building.

On Wednesday evening local time, five of the leading Republican candidates vying to be president will take to the stage inside, in a debate which will be relayed to millions of Americans live on NBC.

The issues are likely to range from the Israel-Hamas conflict to the economy and who can beat Joe Biden next year.

But the man most likely to actually beat Mr Biden won’t be there. Because while his Republican rivals are facing off, Donald Trump will be enjoying uninterrupted and unchallenged stage time at his own rally on the other side of town. Just how he likes it.

Mr Trump doesn’t believe he has to partake in these debates to get the nod from Republican voters and polling suggests, emphatically, he’s right.

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His lead has only grown since he missed the first, then the second debate. By most estimates, he’s now at least 30 points clear of his closest rivals, Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, and Nikki Hayley, a former governor of South Carolina, who is positioning herself as the leading anti-Trumper in the race.

Republican strategist Ryan Williams is convinced the debates are a race for second place.

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Trump’s ‘political rally’ from court

“And a distant second place at that,” he says. “It would have to be an unforeseen event, an illness or an accident or him being hit by a meteor to stop Trump becoming the nominee.”

Being a no show at debates hasn’t diminished the possibility of Mr Trump’s second coming, nor has the merry-go-round of civil and criminal charges against him.

Only this week, he was on the witness stand in a New York court in a case in which it has already been decided he committed fraud. Next year he will stand trial accused of committing crimes against the state. But his support is deepening and not just against Republican rivals.

Polling by the New York Times and Siena this week shows Donald Trump ahead of President Biden in five of six key swing states that Mr Biden won last time round.

“If polls showed him falling behind it might provide an opening for someone,” said Williams.

“But that polling shows that these four prosecutions are not only not harming him with Republican primary voters, they’re not hurting him with independents either. It dispels any attack another candidate might make about him being unelectable.”

The debate is the first since the Israel-Hamas war began and America’s role in the Middle East will likely be sparred over, too.

Nikki Hayley, who has some momentum after the last debate, supports Israel but believes America should only have a limited role in the conflict.

Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum before the first Republican presidential debate Pic: AP
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Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum before the first Republican presidential debate Pic: AP

Ron DeSantis is more aggressive in his support, boasting that planes contracted by Florida brought “hospital supplies, drones, body armour and helmets” to first responders in Israel.

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What we know about Trump’s plans if he returns to White House
Analysis: Carefully curated TV debates are needed both sides of the Atlantic

Mr Trump was initially critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the 7 October attacks, saying he was unprepared. He also called Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant organisation designated a terrorist group, “smart”.

But Israel is unlikely to be a huge determining factor in the Primaries.

“Trump has such strong record of supporting Israel,” says Williams.

“He was the first American president to move the embassy to Jerusalem, and he has a history of siding with Israel completely, so it will be hard to pierce his armour on this.”

It will take some other political cunning or an unexpected event, to overhaul Mr Trump at this stage. But there is still time for these candidates to sell themselves, if any Republican voters out there are still listening.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News on Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News channel 501, Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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How much of the White House is Trump demolishing?

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How much of the White House is Trump demolishing?

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈 

Donald Trump begins bulldozing much of the White House as his plans to build a mega ballroom begin – without planning permission, nor true clarity as to how it’s all being funded.

There are aesthetic questions, historical questions and ethical questions. We dig into what they are.

And – who is the young Democratic socialist about to become New York City’s first Muslim mayor? We tell you everything you need to know about Zohran Mamdani.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel – and watch David Blevins’ digital video on the White House ballroom here.

Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.

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Furious Trump cancels ‘all trade negotiations’ with Canada after TV advert

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Furious Trump cancels 'all trade negotiations' with Canada after TV advert

Analysis: Escalation will test Trump and Carney’s relationship

Trump turning once again on America’s closest ally Canada just proves how flippant his trade decisions are.

The smooth-talking confidence of Prime Minister Mark Carney persuaded Canadians to vote for him in this year’s election.

He certainly ran on a pitch to stand up to Trump, but his recent dealings with the US president have largely been diplomatic and cordial.

Carney was last in the Oval Office just over two weeks ago, and the pair laughed off Trump’s obsession with Canada becoming the “51st state”.

But now it’s a single advert from the government of Ontario that has triggered Trump to pause all trade talks between the two, calling its anti-tariff stance “egregious” on his social media platform Truth Social.

The advert uses Ronald Reagan’s voice to attack tariff policy – arguing trade barriers “hurt every American worker and consumer… markets shrink, and collapse, businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose their jobs”.

But now, the Ronald Reagan Foundation has said the ad “misrepresents” his words – and they did not give their permission to use it.

Mere hours before Trump’s post, Carney was prodding Trump jokingly to bet on the outcome of the baseball World Series.

Given this latest escalation by the President tonight, their next interaction will be far from a laughing matter.

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Putin criticises Trump’s sanctions on oil firms – as Russian jets ‘briefly enter NATO airspace’

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Putin criticises Trump's sanctions on oil firms - as Russian jets 'briefly enter NATO airspace'

Vladimir Putin has described Donald Trump’s sanctions against two major oil firms as an “unfriendly act”.

However, the Russian president has insisted the tightened restrictions won’t affect the nation’s economy, a claim widely contradicted by most analysts.

In a major policy shift, Mr Trump imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil – Russia’s biggest oil companies – on Wednesday.

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Will US sanctions on Russian oil hurt the Kremlin?

The White House said this was because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.

Putin has now warned the move could disrupt the global oil markets, and lead to higher prices for consumers worldwide.

A meeting between the two leaders had been proposed in Budapest, but Mr Trump said he had decided to cancel the talks because “it didn’t feel right to me”.

Speaking from the Oval Office, he had told reporters: “I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”

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Giving a speech in Moscow yesterday, Putin said “dialogue is always better than war” – but warned that Russia will never bow to pressure from abroad.

Earlier, his long-term ally Dmitry Medvedev had described Mr Trump as a “talkative peacemaker” who had now “fully embarked on the warpath against Russia”.

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Why did Trump sanction Russian oil?

Oil prices have witnessed a sizeable jump since the sanctions were announced, with Brent crude rising by 5% – the biggest daily percentage gains since the middle of June.

In other developments, Lithuania has claimed that two Russian military aircraft briefly entered its airspace yesterday.

A Su-30 fighter and Il-78 refuelling tanker were in the NATO member’s territory for 18 seconds, and Spanish jets were scrambled in response to the incident.

Russia’s defence ministry denied this – and said its planes did not violate the borders of any other country during a “training flight” in the Kaliningrad region.

Read more:
Sanctions could have chilling effect on market

How could new sanctions impact the UK?

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Zelenskyy tells Sky News ‘ceasefire is still possible’

Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended a European Council summit in Brussels to discuss the war in Ukraine – and said the meeting had delivered “good results”.

He said Ukraine had secured political support for frozen Russian assets and “their maximum use” to defend against Russian aggression, adding the EU would “work out all the necessary details”.

Mr Zelenskyy thanked the bloc for approving its 19th sanctions package against Russia earlier today, and work was already beginning on a 20th.

European leaders are going to arrive in London later today for a “critical” meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” – with the goal of discussing “how they can pile pressure on Putin as he continues to kill innocent civilians with indiscriminate attacks across Ukraine”.

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How will the Russian oil sanctions affect petrol costs?

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “The only person involved in this conflict who does not want to stop the war is President Putin, and his depraved strikes on young children in a nursery this week make that crystal clear.

“Time and again we offer Putin the chance to end his needless invasion, to stop the killing and recall his troops, but he repeatedly rejects those proposals and any chance of peace.

“From the battlefield to the global markets, as Putin continues to commit atrocities in Ukraine we must ratchet up the pressure on Russia and build on President Trump’s decisive action.”

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