Despite debate no-show, Donald Trump would have to be ‘hit by a meteor’ to miss out on nomination
In downtown Miami at what is usually a centre for the performing arts, preparations are under way for a piece of political theatre.
But the man who should be the lead act is setting up his own show a few miles up the road.
Posters for the third Republican debate have been slapped on every spare inch of the Adrienne Arsht Center with metal barriers marking the perimeter of the building.
On Wednesday evening local time, five of the leading Republican candidates vying to be president will take to the stage inside, in a debate which will be relayed to millions of Americans live on NBC.
The issues are likely to range from the Israel-Hamas conflict to the economy and who can beat Joe Biden next year.
But the man most likely to actually beat Mr Biden won’t be there. Because while his Republican rivals are facing off, Donald Trump will be enjoying uninterrupted and unchallenged stage time at his own rally on the other side of town. Just how he likes it.
Mr Trump doesn’t believe he has to partake in these debates to get the nod from Republican voters and polling suggests, emphatically, he’s right.
His lead has only grown since he missed the first, then the second debate. By most estimates, he’s now at least 30 points clear of his closest rivals, Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, and Nikki Hayley, a former governor of South Carolina, who is positioning herself as the leading anti-Trumper in the race.
Republican strategist Ryan Williams is convinced the debates are a race for second place.
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Trump’s ‘political rally’ from court
“And a distant second place at that,” he says. “It would have to be an unforeseen event, an illness or an accident or him being hit by a meteor to stop Trump becoming the nominee.”
Being a no show at debates hasn’t diminished the possibility of Mr Trump’s second coming, nor has the merry-go-round of civil and criminal charges against him.
Only this week, he was on the witness stand in a New York court in a case in which it has already been decided he committed fraud. Next year he will stand trial accused of committing crimes against the state. But his support is deepening and not just against Republican rivals.
Polling by the New York Times and Siena this week shows Donald Trump ahead of President Biden in five of six key swing states that Mr Biden won last time round.
“If polls showed him falling behind it might provide an opening for someone,” said Williams.
“But that polling shows that these four prosecutions are not only not harming him with Republican primary voters, they’re not hurting him with independents either. It dispels any attack another candidate might make about him being unelectable.”
The debate is the first since the Israel-Hamas war began and America’s role in the Middle East will likely be sparred over, too.
Nikki Hayley, who has some momentum after the last debate, supports Israel but believes America should only have a limited role in the conflict.
Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum before the first Republican presidential debate Pic: AP
Ron DeSantis is more aggressive in his support, boasting that planes contracted by Florida brought “hospital supplies, drones, body armour and helmets” to first responders in Israel.
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Mr Trump was initially critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the 7 October attacks, saying he was unprepared. He also called Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant organisation designated a terrorist group, “smart”.
But Israel is unlikely to be a huge determining factor in the Primaries.
“Trump has such strong record of supporting Israel,” says Williams.
“He was the first American president to move the embassy to Jerusalem, and he has a history of siding with Israel completely, so it will be hard to pierce his armour on this.”
It will take some other political cunning or an unexpected event, to overhaul Mr Trump at this stage. But there is still time for these candidates to sell themselves, if any Republican voters out there are still listening.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News on Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News channel 501, Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
A man has pleaded guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in November 2022.
Bryan Kohberger, a 30-year-old former criminal justice student, was arrested at his parents’ home in Pennsylvania weeks after the killings.
He was accused of sneaking into the rented home in Moscow, Idaho, which is not far from the university campus, and attacking Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves.
Kohberger previously pleaded not guilty to charges of murder and burglary.
It comes after he agreed to a plea deal, just weeks before his trial was set to begin, in a bid to avoid the death penalty.
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Bryan Kohberger during a hearing in Latah County District Court in Moscow, Idaho. Pic: Reuters
Kaylee Goncalves, Maddie Mogen and Xana Kernodle, and Xana’s boyfriend Ethan Chapin
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It is certainly big – 940 pages long – but on the question of beauty, Congress is divided.
Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” has sparked ugly debate – both for its ambitious scope and for the political manoeuvring that’s gone on around it.
Elon Musk branded it “political suicide” for Republicans and threatened to fund challenges against those who back it in next year’s midterm elections.
But the president hit back, suggesting he would consider cutting Musk’s lucrative government contracts or even deporting him back to South Africa.
The “big, beautiful bill”, or HR 1 to give the proposed legislation its proper title, is Mr Trump’s signature spending and tax policy.
It extends tax cuts he secured in 2017 and bankrolls his second-term agenda in the White House.
File pic: Reuters
Here is a summary of the key points:
• Permanent tax cuts: Extending relief from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
• Small business support: Doubling the small business expensing limit to $2.5m (£1.8m) to help businesses expand and hire staff
• Child tax credit: Expanding the child tax credit and making it permanent, benefiting 40 million families
• Making housing affordable: Expanding the low-income housing tax credit to kickstart construction of affordable homes
• Defence and border security: Allocating $170bn (£123bn) for border security alone, including $46bn (£33bn) for completing the border wall
• Made-in-America incentives: Providing tax breaks and incentives for domestic manufacturing to promote US industry
• Healthcare and social welfare: Implementing restrictions on Medicaid, which provides healthcare for millions of Americans, and reducing funding for certain healthcare and nutrition programmes.
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Clash over ‘monster’ debt bill
Musk, Mr Trump’s former ally and the man who established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), claimed the bill “raises the debt ceiling by $5trn, the biggest increase in history.”
“DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,” was President Trump’s response.
The national debt currently stands at $37trn (£27trn) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill could add $2.4trn (£1.7trn) to that over the next decade.
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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk
Bill splits Republican ranks
Republican Senator Thom Tillis voted against the bill and, following criticism from the president, announced he would not seek re-election in North Carolina.
He said he couldn’t support it due to his concerns about the impact cuts to Medicaid would have on people in his state.
Democrats in the Senate forced a full reading of all 940 pages and then a vote-a-rama, a series of marathon voting sessions.
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In the House of Representatives, it passed by a single vote, 215-214. In the Senate, Vice President JD Vance, had to cast the deciding vote to break a tie (50-50).
Legislatively, the progress of the bill has been a case study in the complexities of American law-making.
Strategically, it represents a mammoth effort to consolidate the president’s policy agenda and secure his legacy.
In the long Gaza war, this is a significant moment.
For the people of Gaza, for the Israeli hostages and their families – this could be the moment it ends. But we have been here before, so many times.
The key question – will Hamas accept what Israel has agreed to: a 60-day ceasefire?
At the weekend, a source at the heart of the negotiations told me: “Both Hamas and Israel are refusing to budge from their position – Hamas wants the ceasefire to last until a permanent agreement is reached.
“Israel is opposed to this. At this point, only President Trump can break this deadlock.”
The source added: “Unless Trump pushes, we are in a stalemate.”
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Will Trump achieve a Gaza ceasefire?
The problem is that the announcement made now by Donald Trump – which is his social-media-summarised version of whatever Israel has actually agreed to – may just amount to Israel’s already-established position.
We don’t know the details and conditions attached to Israel’s proposals.
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Would Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza? Totally? Or partially? How many Palestinian prisoners would they agree to release from Israel’s jails? And why only 60 days? Why not a total ceasefire? What are they asking of Hamas in return?
We just don’t know the answers to any of these questions, except one.
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Dozens killed at beachfront cafe in Gaza
We do know why Israel wants a 60-day ceasefire, not a permanent one. It’s all about domestic politics.
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to agree now to a permanent ceasefire, the extreme right-wingers in his coalition would collapse his government.
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have both been clear about their desire for the war to continue. They hold the balance of power in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.
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If Mr Netanyahu instead agrees to just 60 days – which domestically he can sell as just a pause – then that may placate the extreme right-wingers for a few weeks until the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, is adjourned for the summer.
It is also no coincidence that the US president has called for Mr Netanyahu’s corruption trial to be scrapped.
Without the prospect of jail, Mr Netanyahu might be more willing to quit the war, safe in the knowledge that focus will not shift immediately to his own political and legal vulnerability.
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