SEC’s first window to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs to begin today
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all 12 of the pending spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that starting from Nov. 9 in the United States, the SEC has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings — including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product — in the days leading up to Nov. 17, but stressed this was only a possibility.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
“Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.”
The reason for this brief window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it selected Nov. 8 as the last day of the comment period.
From Nov. 17, the comment period for 3 filings, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF would recommence, meaning that they wouldn’t be approved or denied until after Nov. 23 at the earliest.
While the window for accepting all 12 filings ends on Nov. 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the twelve applications anytime before Jan. 10.
While the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is in no way guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90% chance of an approval sometime before Jan. 10 next year.
Grayscale in talks with SEC over GBTC conversion
While market pundits eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly initiated discussions with the regulator concerning its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a Nov. 9 report from CoinDesk.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance since winning its court battle with the regulator on Aug. 29.
As the perceived odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved have increased, so too has optimism in the crypto market, with the price of Bitcoin gaining more than 30% in the last 3 months. Bitcoin’s outsized rally has buoyed price activity in other major assets as well.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF hype reignited zest for blockchain games: Yat Siu
In the past month, Solana (SOL) gained a staggering 93% amid scaling improvements, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) grew 36% and 20% respectively.
While many within the industry are confident an approval will kickstart the next bull market, other analysts aren’t convinced that the rally has staying power.
Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in
Kenya is preparing legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies with a draft proposal open for public feedback until Jan. 24.
According to the US Department of Justice, Wolf Capital’s co-founder has pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy for luring 2,800 crypto investors into a Ponzi scheme.
Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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The chancellor will be accompanied by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other senior executives.
She will meet with her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment.
She will also “raise difficult issues”, including Chinese firms supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns over constraints on rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, the Treasury said.
But it did not mention whether Ms Reeves would raise the treatment of the Uyghur community, which Downing Street said Foreign Secretary David Lammy would do during his visit last year.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Pic: AP
On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
Read more – Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China
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Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”
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