Week 11 has arrived and with it a ranked opponent for Michigan. The Wolverines put their perfect season — on the field anyway — on the line at one-loss Penn State.
The game also is significant for Penn State and coach James Franklin, who is just 3-16 against top-10 opponents. Another season of losses to both Michigan and Ohio State will raise bigger questions about Penn State’s direction.
Other key games Saturday include Ole Miss at Georgia, Miami at Florida State, Utah at Washington and USC at Oregon.
Our writers provide three keys to each of those games, as well as how Week 11 can help Heisman candidates build their cases and quotes from the week.
Week 11: Three keys to key games
(Noon ET, Fox)
After another week of off-field drama, Michigan will experience its biggest test on the field at Penn State, which has won seven straight at home and boasts the nation’s No. 1 defense against the run.
Michigan distractions: Michigan is still awaiting possible discipline from the Big Ten, which sources say is considering a multigame suspension for coach Jim Harbaugh. The distractions are there, but Michigan has handled them incredibly well, even long before the NCAA investigation. The Wolverines played their first three games without Harbaugh and have used the controversy and criticism around their program as galvanizing forces.
Penn State’s run defense: For Penn State to take down Michigan, the Lions will need their elite run defense (just 60.3 yards per game) to hold up much better than it did in 2022, when Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum led a Wolverines’ rushing attack that piled up 418 yards and four touchdowns. Franklin told me the team’s defensive line depth is significantly better, and the group could regain Chop Robinson and Amin Vanover from injury.
Michigan’s QB: Penn State’s run defense is the priority, but it also must be aware of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who could ignite his Heisman Trophy candidacy with a big performance. Franklin noted McCarthy’s athleticism and ability to keep Michigan’s offense “on schedule,” preventing “exotic pressures on obvious passing downs.” — Adam Rittenberg
Georgia has a chance to win the SEC East again if it can defeat the No. 9 Rebels at home. The No. 2 Bulldogs can clinch the division if No. 14 Missouri takes down No. 13 Tennessee earlier in the day. Regardless of what happens in the latter game, Georgia wins the SEC East with another victory over the Rebels. Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 games in the series; Ole Miss won the last meeting 45-14 in Oxford, Mississippi, in 2016. Remarkably, the Rebels are making their first trip to Sanford Stadium since a 37-10 loss in 2012.
Slow the run game: The Bulldogs are tied for second in the SEC in run defense, allowing 100 yards per game. But Georgia was surprisingly porous in last week’s 30-21 victory against Missouri, allowing Cody Schrader to run for 112 yards with one score on 22 carries. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook added another 39 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs will face a similar two-way threat in Rebels tailback Quinshon Judkins, who is fifth in the league with 88.1 yards per game, and quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has 334 rushing yards with seven scores.
Plug the middle: Georgia will probably be without junior linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who fractured his left forearm against Missouri. The All-American was wearing a cast and sling after the game. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said earlier this week Dumas-Johnson was looking for “innovative ways” to keep playing, but it would be surprising to see him on the field against the Rebels. Sophomores Jalon Walker and Xavian Sorey Jr. and freshman C.J. Allen will probably be in the inside linebacker rotation more in Dumas-Johnson’s absence.
Protect this house: The Rebels will be pulling for Kentucky to somehow upset Alabama on Saturday to remain in the SEC West hunt. They’ll face a tall order in trying to beat Georgia at home. The Bulldogs have tied a school record by winning 24 straight games at home. They’ve won 12 in a row at Sanford Stadium against teams ranked in the AP poll. — Mark Schlabach
The Seminoles’ remaining schedule suggests they’ll finish unbeaten heading into ACC championship game. Miami is next up.
Miami quarterback: Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal was mum this week when asked whether Tyler Van Dyke would start at Florida State, saying personnel decisions like that stay in-house. The fact that Cristobal left some doubt is telling, beyond the fact there is gamesmanship involved headed into a big rivalry game. Van Dyke has thrown 10 interceptions in his past four games. Since missing the Clemson game with an undisclosed injury, he has struggled even more, with no touchdown passes, five interceptions and QB ratings under 36. Freshman Emory Williams led the Hurricanes to the win over the Tigers and could be a better option if Van Dyke is still struggling through injury.
Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson: Florida State coach Mike Norvell also kept fairly mum on the status of the Seminoles’ top two receivers, who both missed last week against Pitt with injury. So did backups Hykeem Williams and Deuce Spann. Without them, Ja’Khi Douglas stepped up with a 100-yard game, but it was difficult for the Seminoles to push the ball down the field with their receivers. Norvell said, “I do see us being in a much better spot.”
The trenches: Miami is vastly improved on its offensive and defensive lines from a year ago, and how these matchups play out could set the tone. The Hurricanes average more yards rushing (176.5 to 164.4 per game) and more yards per rush (5.2 to 5.0) than Florida State. With the quarterback uncertainty, the Hurricanes could opt to pound the ball on a Florida State run defense that has allowed its share of big games this season. Of course, Florida State will more than likely pressure Miami to put the game on the quarterback. — Andrea Adelson
(3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Utah will head to Seattle in a must-win situation if it is to keep its hopes of making it three straight Pac-12 titles alive, while the Huskies try to keep their undefeated record intact.
Setting the tone: As Utah showed against Oregon — when it was blown out 35-6 — it is not a team that is built to play from behind. When the Ducks started fast, that was pretty much game over. They can mix in the pass and find success, but when forced to become one dimensional, it’s just not going to work. That’s why it’s important for the Utes to either stay close or build a lead early and remain in their comfort zone.
Heisman moment: As we’ll touch on below, Heisman voters will be watching. If Michael Penix Jr. is Heisman-worthy, it means big performances in these types of games. All eyes will be on him to see what he can do against this tough Utah defense.
Utah offense: The Utah defense is as reliable as it comes. The offense? Not so much. This is where the game will be won or lost: when Utah has the ball. A 55-3 drubbing of ASU last week showed the potential is there, but it’s an entirely different ask to trade scores with this UW offense at Husky Stadium. — Kyle Bonagura
(10:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Oregon hosts a bruised USC team that’s now without defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who was fired following Washington’s 52-42 win over the Trojans. Both teams technically have plenty to play for (USC needs to win out to have a shot at the Pac-12 title game) but it’s the Ducks who are hoping for a CFP berth.
Keeping up with Caleb Williams: Though it hasn’t been exactly the encore Heisman season many expected Williams to have, he’s still good enough to overcome many of USC’s shortcomings (not to mention he leads the country in touchdowns). The Ducks’ defense will need to contain Williams when he scrambles outside the pocket. As Dan Lanning said this week, no quarterback holds on to the ball longer than Williams, and limiting him will be the key to a win.
The Bucky Irving factor: The Ducks running back has been a force this season, running for 821 yards and nine touchdowns at an average of nearly 7 yards per carry. USC’s run defense, meanwhile, is one of the nation’s worst, allowing 186 rushing yards per game. And while the Trojans will try to find a spark in the wake of Grinch’s firing, Irving could be their worst nightmare.
Fighting to stay alive: USC, which has three losses in its past four games, somehow finds itself with an outside shot at making it to the Pac-12 title game. Despite the game’s location — the always tough Autzen Stadium — and the Ducks being favorites, the Trojans should be playing with a nothing-to-lose mentality that could make them a dangerous matchup against a team that has bigger aspirations. — Paolo Uggetti
Heisman hopeful spotlight
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Jordan Travis throws TD pass to Markeston Douglas
Jordan Travis hits Markeston Douglas for the TD to extend Florida State’s lead over Pittsburgh 17-7.
Jordan Travis, Florida State: The fact that Travis threw for 360 yards last week without his top two receivers in a 24-7 win over Pitt probably did not get as much attention as it deserved. Perhaps that is because everybody expects him to turn in an all-world performance every time he steps on the field, and that is more than likely part of the issue when it comes to attracting more Heisman attention. So is the fact there are playmakers all over the field for the Seminoles, and the balance they have on offense has meant he is not putting up the same gaudy numbers as other quarterbacks. But make no mistake, Florida State is nowhere near the CFP conversation without Travis. — Adelson
Jayden Daniels, LSU: Alabama didn’t have much luck stopping Daniels last week until he was knocked out of the game early in the fourth quarter when Dallas Turner teed off on him and was hit with a personal foul penalty. Daniels is listed as day-to-day entering the Florida game (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network) after being placed in concussion protocol. Missing one game probably wouldn’t derail Daniels’ Heisman candidacy, especially with how well he played against Alabama, but he would need a strong close to the season. Daniels has been one of the more dynamic players in the country. He’s the national leader in total offense (3,476 yards) and second in TD responsibility (33). Even in the Tigers’ three losses, Daniels has played lights out. It’s difficult to see a scenario where he’s not at least one of the finalists. — Chris Low
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State: The receiver, who is ninth nationally and leads the Big Ten with 914 receiving yards, has been on a torrid pace lately with 100-yard games in four of Ohio State’s past five games. He heads into Saturday night’s game against Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) having hauled in at least one touchdown in five straight games — including two apiece the past two weeks against Wisconsin and Rutgers. The Spartans’ pass defense sits 10th in the conference (222.3 YPG) and Harrison went off in this game a year ago in East Lansing (seven receptions for 131 yards and three TDs). — Blake Baumgartner
Bo Nix, Oregon: It’s a nice bit of symmetry for Nix that as his Heisman case picks up, the super senior will be going head-to-head against the reigning Heisman winner in Williams this weekend. Nix has been on a tear this year, completing at least 70% of his passes in every game so far. He’s got 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions, while being on the brink of crossing the 3,000-yard threshold. In other words, if Nix continues to build on his efficient numbers this weekend against Williams and the Ducks keep winning, his Heisman chances will only improve. — Uggetti
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: Going up against Utah and the best defense the Huskies will see during the regular season, Penix has a big opportunity to make a statement. Since the win against Oregon, Penix’s Heisman campaign has been mostly treading water — including last week’s 52-point outburst against USC in which the Huskies rode running back Dillon Johnson (256 yards rushing). Still, Penix leads the nation in passing by a wide margin (3,201 yards in nine games), is third in touchdown passes (26) and, perhaps just as importantly, is on an undefeated team. Some people don’t believe this should be the case, but the reality is the Heisman Trophy is really impacted by team success. When there isn’t an obvious candidate, team success is a major differentiator — so the Huskies need to keep winning. — Bonagura
Quotes of the week
“I’m a clean person, but I’m not a cleaner. Vacuums aren’t my thing. I don’t know anything about that.” — Michigan running back Blake Corum, denying any knowledge on his name appearing on an LLC for a business run by former football staff member Connor Stalions. Stalions, at the heart of the Michigan sign-stealing allegations, reportedly was sued by his homeowners association for running a vacuum refurbishing business out of his home.
“I am that committed, and we are all that committed to playing great defense here, and whatever it takes to get that done, that’s what we’re going to do.” — USC coach Lincoln Riley on firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch this week following USC’s 52-42 loss to Washington.
“There aren’t a lot of answers out there about how to beat those guys in Athens. … They have elite players, an elite staff, and we’re playing them on the road. What’s the hardest thing to pull off? This is it.” — Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, on facing Georgia this week.
“Well, I like whiskey.” — Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, after saying he goes home and watches games with a notebook and a Diet Coke, when asked his favorite flavor of Diet Coke.
While there isn’t a massive free agent expected to smash records this winter like Ohtani and Soto did, there are two players who are intriguing for different reasons and also happen to have the same first name: Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker.
From one point of view, Tucker has had a solid walk year, posting 4.7 WAR with his offensive numbers down just a tick from last year’s career year but underlying metrics close to his best seasons. On the other hand, Tucker had a really rough run in August, hitting .148/.233/.148 (16 wRC+) over 15 games (61 plate appearances) from Aug. 1 to Aug. 18. This led to him sitting out games Aug. 19 and 20. The Chicago Cubs right fielder has hit well since returning, but now he’s on the injured list with a calf strain. That said, he was tied for fifth in baseball in WAR at the end of June, and he remains in the top 20.
Schwarber’s season is less complicated. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has posted career bests in most offensive categories, including his 50 homers, 123 RBIs and 4.5 WAR. The only negatives for his outlook on free agency are that Schwarber will be 33 years old in March and has played only 13 games in the field over the last two seasons. Designated hitters well into their 30s haven’t fared well in free agency, but none of those had hit 50 homers in their walk year, so Schwarber is in uncharted territory.
How much might each of the Kyles get this winter? We polled 20 scouts, executives and agents to find out.
Kyle Tucker
How much could Tucker get?
Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.
Under $350 million (6): 11 years/$308 million, 9 years/$315 million (2x), 8 years/$320 million, 9 years/$340 million, 9 years/$342 million
$350-$399 million (4): 8 years/$352 million, 10 years/$375 million, 12 years/$375 million, 11 years/$380 million
$400-499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 11 years/$400 million, 11 years/$418 million, 10 years/$420 million (2x), 10 years/$425 million, 12 years/$425 million, 10 years/$450 million
At least $500 million (2): 10 years/$500 million, 12 years/$550 million
The average of all 20 projections is 10.1 years, $391.5 million, for a $38.8 million average annual value (AAV).
The median projection of those deals is $390 million.
Who are the closest comps?
Tucker’s consistent standout performance (five straight 4-5 fWAR seasons and five straight hitting performances 30% better than league average) makes it hard to find a recent free agent comparison. He’s 10th in baseball in WAR over the last five seasons.
Over the last four free agent classes, the $150M+ position players don’t have a great fit for a comp. Soto’s $765 million deal and Ohtani’s $700 million deal aren’t useful. Shortstops Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are positionally quite different, though Seager isn’t a terrible secondary comp. Freddie Freeman was three years older than Tucker as a free agent and Aaron Judge was two years older, while also coming off of an 11.1 WAR season with 62 homers, so neither seems that relevant. Kris Bryant was already trending down when he hit free agency, while Brandon Nimmo was trending up but had years of durability concerns.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million April extension with the Toronto Blue Jays is the comp that kept coming up with those we surveyed. Vlad’s extension kicks in next year for his age-27 season, while Tucker will be 29. It’s only two years, but it’s a very important two years in projecting the value in a long-term deal. Tucker has more baserunning and positional value, but he’s still a corner outfielder. Guerrero’s extension was signed outside of a competitive bidding situation, with the perception being that the Jays paid a little more than the market would bear to lock up their franchise player after a last-place American League East finish last season and with fellow core player Bo Bichette still unsigned.
Who are Tucker’s potential suitors?
There was little confidence from those surveyed (none of whom work for the Cubs) about the Cubs winning a bidding war for Tucker. The Los Angeles Dodgers, longtime fans of Tucker, were mentioned by a number of industry insiders. We didn’t ask about a projected team, so the Dodgers coming up often seems to be indicative of a feeling in the industry that they’re the team to beat.
Putting all of those pieces together, you can see why a contingent of the industry thinks Tucker will land somewhere around Guerrero’s extension, some think he’ll end up closer to $300 million, but most have him around $400 million, give or take, which is also where Jeff Passan’s sources led him.
Kyle Schwarber
How much could Schwarber get?
Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.
Under $100 million (2): 4 years/$72 million, 3 years/$90 million
$100-$125 million (11): 3 years/$100 million, 4 years/$100 million, 4 years/$110 million (2x), 4 years/$112 million (3x), 5 years/$118 million, 4 years/$120 million (2x), 3 years/$125 million
$126-180 million (5): 4 years/$140 million, 6 years/$150 million, 4 years/$160 million, 5 years/$160 million, 4 years/$180 million
At least $200 million (2): 6 years.$200 million, 7 years/$245 million
The average of all 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for a $30.7 million average annual value (AAV).
The median projection of those deals is $119 million.
Who are the closest comps?
A handful of comps come up for Schwarber:
J.D. Martinez: Five years, $110 million going into his age-30 season in 2018 (45 HRs, 4.3 WAR walk year)
Paul Goldschmidt: Five years, $130 million going into his age-32 season in 2020 (33 HRs, 4.6 WAR in walk year)
Freeman: Six years, $162 million going into his age-32 season in 2022 (31 HRs, 4.7 WAR in walk year)
The comp math would say Schwarber should get one year less than the shortest deal above due to his age (thus, four years) and land in the $25-30 million average annual value (AAV) area, which is right where those surveyed ended up.
Who are Schwarber’s potential suitors?
Conversely to the Tucker/Cubs situation, a lot of those surveyed think there’s a strong chance the Phillies will act quickly after the season ends to bring Schwarber back. Either way, he seems to be a target for a contending team looking to beef up the middle of its lineup in the short term, and hopefully not have an albatross on its ledger at the end of the deal.
All of those teams would be conscious of luxury tax numbers, and a rival agent brought up an interesting wrinkle he’s expecting to see: Schwarber will get that fifth year, for a little added money, to get the AAV down.
A number of teams should be interested at that low-nine-figure area, as the predictions suggest, but there could eventually be a landing spot closer to $150 million with enough competitive bidding. That said, some teams simply can’t stomach that kind of money for an older DH.
New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge wasted no time moving past another all-time great on the team’s career home run list Thursday night.
Just two days after passing Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra for fifth place on the franchise list, Judge hit home runs in his first two at-bats in a 9-3 victory against the Detroit Tigers to tie another Hall of Famer, Joe DiMaggio, for fourth with 361 career home runs.
Hall of Famers Babe Ruth (659 homers), Mickey Mantle (536) and Lou Gehrig (493) are ahead of Judge on the Yankees’ career homers list.
“Joe DiMaggio, Joe DiMaggio, it feels like that’s been there forever,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “Joe DiMaggio in a lot of ways transcended baseball. So to be next to him on the list and as he’s going to be waving as he’s going by, it’s impressive and a bit of privilege having a front-row seat to that.”
With President Donald Trump in attendance to mark the 24-year anniversary of 9/11, the two-time MVP got the Yankees on the board with a 413-foot blast to left-center field off Tyler Holton for his 18th home run in the first inning this season, which ties a major league record set by himself (2024) and Alex Rodriguez (2001).
“It’s just an important day for all of us to come together, so it’s just kind of a surreal moment, surreal day,” Judge said.
Judge reached 45 home runs in a season for the fourth time, which is tied with Gehrig for the second most in Yankees history behind Ruth (nine).
It didn’t take Judge long to hit No. 46 and tie DiMaggio. In the third inning, Judge hammered a 434-foot shot — also to left-center field with an exit velocity of 114.9 mph — on a 1-0 fastball from Sawyer Gipson-Long to give the Yankees a 4-1 lead.
Judge tied DiMaggio in his 1,129th regular-season game and has nine homers in 33 contests since returning from the injured list last month.
He had three hits and ended the night with a major-league-best .322 batting average, three points ahead of Athletics rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson. It was the 45th career multihomer game for Judge, which ranks third in Yankees history behind Ruth (68) and Mantle (46).
Holton and Gipson-Long became the 272nd and 273rd pitchers to allow a homer to Judge, who has six multihomer games this season.
ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, a Seattle swoon has allowed the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians to remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30 Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1 Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series Best of five
ALDS Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4 Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5 Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7 Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8* Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4 Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6 Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8 Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9* Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series Best of seven
ALCS Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12 Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13 Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15 Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16 Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17* Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19* Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13 Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14 Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16 Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17 Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18* Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20* Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24 Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25 Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27 Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28 Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29* Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31* Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*