A wind turbine installation taking place in Germany on July 14, 2023. The International Energy Agency is calling for a surge in renewable energy installations over the next few years.
Ina Fassbender | AFP | Getty Images
Renewable energy firms are mostly suffering a dire earnings season as struggling supply chains, manufacturing faults and rising production costs eat into profits.
With the world trying to transition at pace toward cleaner energy, equipment manufacturers are struggling to keep up with soaring global demand, leading to rising production costs and questions over the economic sustainability of large-scale projects from the industry’s major players.
Manufacturing faults, most notably at Siemens Energy‘s wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa, have emerged as companies race to build turbines at a greater pace and scale.
Specialist wind energy firms are also often finding themselves outbid for seabed licenses by traditional oil and gas players. Should they win a contract, electricity prices are often too low to justify the manufacturing costs, leaving companies looking to their governments in Europe and the U.S. to deliver greater subsidies and restore balance to the market.
As a result, most wind energy stocks are down sharply since the turn of the year.
In a report published last week, Allianz Research noted that the eight largest renewable energy firms in the world reported a combined total $3 billion decrease in assets in the first half of the year, with wind projects in particular facing turbulent conditions. The firm’s economists said the past earnings season was a “learning moment” for the industry.
“The whole sector is grappling with rising construction and financing costs, quality-control problems and supply-chain issues. Inflation and global energy-price fluctuations have also led to increased costs for wind-power projects, casting doubt over the feasibility of many ventures,” Allianz Research economists said.
“Some projects in the U.S. but also in the U.K. are at risk of being abandoned if governments do not offer support. As these projects were initiated before the energy crisis, with guaranteed feed-in-tariffs that were low, they are now becoming more and more unprofitable.”
Although balance sheets remain solid, renewables companies have been writing down assets and cutting their earnings outlooks. Danish company Ørsted announced last week that it was scrapping the development of two offshore projects in the U.S., with related impairments totaling $5.6 billion.
However, compatriot Vestas offered a ray of hope. The company posted a third-quarter EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) before special items of 70 million euros ($74.73 million), well above the 31 million euros projected in a company-compiled consensus. However, it also warned that external factors clouded its near-term outlook, pulling back its full-year investment and margin guidance.
Its CEO Henrik Andersen told CNBC Wednesday that the sector was at an inflection point and that the market would eventually identify its “winners and losers” over time.
“We are very disciplined, we work with our customers and partners can rely on us, and governments can rely on us. That, I hope, creates the strong foundation for being one of the winners in the industry,” Andersen said.
“It’s not broken, but you can’t close your eyes and hope that any project you embark into discussions will always come through if the macroeconomic factors change.”
Political recalibration
Jacob Pedersen, senior analyst at Sydbank, agreed that Vestas in particular was well-positioned to move forward, but that both companies and policymakers needed to rethink their strategies if the transition to net zero was to be realistic.
“We know a huge part of the problem is related to the projects that were won back in 2019/20 and at low prices. Since then, inflation and interests have gone up, it’s become much more expensive to realize these projects, and that has left an order book of deficits, and that order book is now being smaller and smaller as time goes by,” Pedersen told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday.
Pedersen added that there is a “huge need for recalibration of the political vie” on the cost of the planned energy transition, given that wind turbines have increased in price by on average 20-30% since 2020.
“The transition to wind turbines, to a greener energy portfolio around the world is getting more expensive, and as such, I think also we have seen some indications — we know that the U.S. is a huge problem for the offshore industry at the moment because of the rise in interest rates,” Pedersen explained.
“But we have seen the newest projects being awarded on much, much better terms and terms that should be good for companies to generate a profit moving forward.”
The European Commission announced a new Wind Power Action Plan last month, aimed at significantly increasing wind installed capacity. Pedersen said this was evidence that the necessary recalibration is underway, but that it would not be achieved overnight.
“This is a process that takes time and in order for project developers to invest in new projects, in order for wind turbine producers to invest in the needed capacity to get us to where the politicians have their goals, much more is needed, and these companies simply haven’t got the cash to invest as much as is needed at the moment,” he said.
Heavy mineral and metals mining is one of the dirtiest industries on the planet, but Chinese equipment giant XCMG doesn’t think it has to stay that way. To prove it, the company has unveiled a sweeping pledge to electrify and decarbonize mining — and they’re dragging over 100 global partners with them.
Along with with 107 global industry partners from 26 countries, Chinese equipment brand XCMG has issued a Joint Declaration on Global Zero-Carbon Smart Mining, aiming to electrify, automate, and otherwise decarbonize international mining. The pledge addresses 12 key areas including electrification, autonomous operation, net-zero emissions, circular economy, technology sharing, international cooperation, and smarter maintenance strategies.
“As a global leader in zero-carbon smart mining solutions, XCMG is committed to addressing industry bottlenecks through integrating new energy equipment, intelligent control systems and full-lifecycle services,” said Yang Dongsheng, chairman of XCMG Group. “We have resolved the four core challenges of energy infrastructure, new energy equipment portfolios, smart mining management systems and financial support, aiming to help our customers achieving both business growth and environmental wins.”
It’s always great to see efforts like this to decarbonize. But those efforts mean millions of new equipment assets to replace the millions of existing diesel assets deployed currently.
With a strong hand in the autonomous haul truck race and ultra-competitive pricing to back their electric plays, it seems like XCMG is about to get serious as it expands its reach into the Western world. It’s no wonder the legacy brands are running scared and hiding behind the bogus “messy middle” propaganda!
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European automakers asked the EU Commission to review and potentially modify the bloc’s 2035 all-EV target at an auto summit on Friday, but the commission is reportedly standing firm despite the industry’s big push this week for more leniency.
In 2021, Europe announced a target to go all-electric by 2035. It was part of a greater package of climate reforms designed to target a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and full climate neutrality by 2050.
But a lot has changed since then. European EV sales and market share have continued to rise, but even more importantly, Chinese EV sales have accelerated rapidly… much faster than those in Europe. In 2020, Europe had 11% plug-in (BEV + PHEV) market share and China was at 5%; but in the interim, China leapfrogged Europe by hitting 47% plug-in share in 2024, while Europe only reached 24%. BEV-only numbers are lower, but BEVs still outsell PHEVs significantly.
This has been accompanied by a significant rise in Chinese EV exports as well. As China’s EV manufacturing effort ramps up rapidly due to forward-looking industrial strategy and encouragement of EV startups, the country has started to produce advanced EVs so cheaply that slow-moving Western automakers are finding it hard to compete (after putting in little effort to do so).
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And so, what are the automakers to do? They’ve already tried nothing, and they’re all out of ideas. So they’re doing what they usually do: going to the teacher to beg for an extension.
Automakers make a final push for leniency on EU emissions
Friday’s auto summit was reportedly the third and last “crisis meeting” between automakers and the EU Commission, timed at the end of the largest European auto show, IAA Munich. Automakers and some governments spent the week agitating for leniency on CO2 targets and to extend the life of the internal combustion engine.
The argument is that automakers don’t have enough time to get up to 100% EV sales by 2035, having only advanced from 11%->24% between 2020 and 2024. But despite automakers’ protestations, China’s move from 5%->47% in the same time frame shows that a lot more is possible than European automakers are letting on.
The review comes after Europe already loosened rules for automakers earlier this year. In March, the Commission gave automakers “breathing room,” slightly extending the deadline for emissions compliance for the 2025-2027 model years (which they now seem on track to meet).
Ironically, this “breathing room” for automakers would result in less “breathing room” for actual humans with lungs, who will have to breathe more pollution as a result of the automakers’ inability to stop poisoning everyone.
Despite that Europe is reportedly standing firm on its targets, it may offer some minor flexibility in its review.
What form the reviewed targets might take is not yet clear. But some automakers and government entities like Germany’s CDU (whose leader, Friedrich Merz, said the auto industry should “not limit itself to a single solution”) are asking for “solutions” that still rely on combustion, and extend the lifespan of polluting, complex and wasteful gasoline engines.
EU President Ursula Von der Leyen reportedly says that the EU will hold firm, but did not rule out potential exceptions for plug-in hybrid vehicles with primarily use electricity but have a combustion engine as a fallback.
While synthetic “e-fuels” created from renewable electricity are principally carbon-free and are obviously better than fossil-based fuels, internal combustion engines are still desperately inefficient, with 20-30% efficiency, as compared to ~90% efficiency for electric motors. Putting that electricity directly into a BEV is a far more efficient way to convert electricity to motion than using the electricity to create synthetic fuels, then shipping and inefficiently combusting those fuels.
For biofuels, which are also carbon neutral, the land and water required is an order of magnitude larger than what’s needed for renewable electricity sources used to fuel electric vehicles. In order to fuel all the world’s cars with biofuels, we would need about twice as much land and rainfall as is available on Earth.
And while it’s nice to think that all these combustion engines might suddenly convert to using biofuels, that seems unlikely to happen. So, continuing to build these engines means they will continue to combust things that, mathematically, must remain underground and uncombusted.
Meanwhile, climate change continues to accelerate as human emissions continue to rise. This is the largest and objectively the most important challenge that humanity has ever created for itself, and one that Europe needs to confront boldly.
Finally, one auto CEO speaks the truth
Thankfully, somebody pointed out the ridiculousness of this debate.
“I don’t know of any better technology than the electric car for advancing CO2 reduction in transportation in the coming years. But even apart from climate protection, the electric car is simply the better technology,” said Döllner, who said that the constant debates over whether inferior combustion engines should be preserved are “counterproductive and unsettle customers.”
Meanwhile, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius, who also heads the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (ACEA), went exactly in the wrong direction with his comments, saying that “hybrids and efficient high-tech combustion engines should remain part of the way forward, otherwise we risk acceptance and jobs.”
The actual reality of the situation is that Europe will lose jobs if it fails on the EV transition… which it alreadyis, and will fail even harder with the complacency that Källenius and Merz have asked for. Doubling down on combustion will result in failure in the face of superior competition from overseas.
At least one CEO, Döllner, actually seems to get it. Although, he did become CEO shortly before Audi tamped down on its EV push, so maybe he needs to listen to his own words.
An unnamed European official, quoted by Euronews, also injected some reality into the situation. After Friday’s talks, the person said “even if the Commission took down these targets, global competition would set them for the industry,” recognizing that superior Chinese EVs are already out-competing European brands and that competition may result in change regardless of any futzing about the automakers beg the EU to do.
A retreat would surrender to Chinese competition
The current situation in Europe involves rising competition from the aforementioned Chinese EV exports. While Chinese share of European EV sales is still rather low at around 11%, that share has been growing rapidly. And it’s growing because, despite the tariff Europe levies on Chinese EVs, these cars still offer quite a good value proposition, and some have better software features than those available from slower-moving traditional automakers.
This is one thing that has European automakers scared about the EV transition. But instead of recognizing that they are behind and need to catch up, they are falling back to the default mode for large businesses – begging government to slow things down so that they can maintain their dominant position. But that hasn’t worked before, and it won’t work now, and thankfully Europe seems not to be taking the bait.
The only way that European automakers can confront the rising challenge from Chinese EVs, and work to solve climate change which their products are the largest single cause of, and which the transportation industry specifically is not doing enough to fix, is by committing more seriously to the EV transition, not by begging the government to let them move more slowly.
Notably, the same sort of begging is not happening in China. When new regulations threatened to destroy the market for ICE cars in China and leave millions of cars unsellable, Chinese auto dealers did ask for a reprieve… but only for six months, in order to sell off existing inventory, while also calling on all levels of industry and government to take the EV transition more seriously, rather than asking anyone to pump the brakes on it.
And none of these Chinese EVs are having any trouble with emissions limits, either. They are not poisoning the lungs (and every other organ) of Europeans – that’s being done by the combustion engine makers.
The only answer is to accelerate, not decelerate
All the above said, Europe’s target probably should be reviewed… because 2035 is not early enough. The faster we work to confront climate change, the better. No matter how expensive it seems it might be to solve the problem that we collectively have spent the last century and a half causing (and have supercharged in the last 30 years), that cost will only get higher as time goes on and as more damage is done.
Many studies have pointed out that the faster we solve this problem, the cheaper it will be to fix, so every moment lost as a result of the auto industry begging for more time only represents more cost, death, and disruption for humanity and for all species on Earth.
Lobbying to slow down the transition therefore does not just harm European industry, but also would harm all life on Earth. And, as Audi’s CEO pointed out, debate over the simple truth of electric drive’s superiority is counterproductive. The European Commission is right to hold firm on its targets, and should rebuff any further pleas to weaken them from the auto industry, the very industry that got itself, and all of us, into this problem in the first place.
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2024 Drive Electric Week EV parade in Wenatchee, WA. Photo: Julie Banken
Drive Electric Month kicks off this week with nearly 200 online and in-person events celebrating electric vehicles over the course of the next month. Events will be held for the next several weekends all across the US, plus a few in Canada and one in Guadalajara, Mexico.
Drive Electric Month is an annual event organized by Plug In America, the Electric Vehicle Association, EVHybridNoire, Drive Electric USA, and the Sierra Club. This is the event’s 15th year. It started in the US as National Drive Electric Week, but for the last few years, some events have been hosted in other countries as well, and now the event has expanded to cover most of the month of September, with a few events in October as well.
These events are an opportunity for prospective EV buyers to talk directly with EV owners about the experience of owning an electric car, and EV owners to network with each other and share tips. The dealership experience is not ideal for many EV shoppers, so unfiltered conversations with EV owners can be a great way to learn.
Each event is organized by local EV advocates, and they range in size from small parking lot meetups and local EV parades to large festivals with lots of booths from nearby car dealers and green businesses. Many events have live music, family-friendly activities, food trucks and the like.
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A map showing 2025’s events
Drive Electric Month has a map and list of events happening over the course of the month. Most events are in-person, but there are some webinar-style online events that you can attend to hear about various topics related to electric vehicles if you can’t get to any local evels. You can also search for events near you.
Be sure to click through to each individual event’s page to see what your local events will look like, what types of EVs might be in attendance, and register your interest.
Here’s a sample of some of the events happening over the course of the month:
Oregon Electric Vehicle Association (OEVA) Test Drive & Information Expo in Portland, Oregon on September 13, 10am-4pm: Along with the standard test drives and car displays, this event will have a number of gas to electric conversions and antique EVs on display. It’s happening at the Daimler Truck North America headquarters, and some of the space will be used for seminars and presentations.
Drive Electric Month Oahu in Aiea, Hawaii on September 13, 10am-2pm: The largest Hawaiian event is just outside of Honolulu, but there are events on four Hawaiian islands this year, with the others in Lihue on Kauai on Sep13, Hilo on the Big Island on Sep27, and Kahului on Maui on Oct11.
DIY conversions are one of the more fun things to see at these events. Image from OEVA/Plug In America
Mesa EV Ride & Drive in Mesa, Arizona on September 20, 8am-12pm: A veteran group of organizers is bringing the EV experience to Mesa Community College on Saturday, Sept. 20. People can test drive a variety of models, talk to real owners and learn how and where to charge.
Jimmy Buffett Son of a Sailor Festival in Mobile, Alabama on September 20, 2pm-7pm: There will be EV displays at this festival which celebrates Jimmy Buffett and Gulf Coast culture. The free festival features live music, local restaurants, parrot-head costume contests and EV drivers who can answer all your questions about driving electric.
Electric Avenue at the Downtown Car Show in Grand Junction, Colorado on September 20, 9am-3pm: At the 23rd annual downtown car show, EVs will have their own block. Spectators will visit with drivers and can participate in a friendly competition for great prizes.
Knoxville’s event is one of the largest, with 75 cars registered so far. Image from Tennessee Clean Fuels
Knoxville Drive Electric Festival in Knoxville, Tennessee on September 27, 10am-3pm: This event bills itself as the largest NDEM event in the Southeast. Along with EV displays and ride-and-drive, the live music stage will be powered by a Ford F-150 Lightning using its vehicle-to-load capabilities.
Plug In America Ride and Drive at Space Coast Pride Parade & Festival in Melbourne, Florida on September 27, 12pm-4pm: Plug In America itself is hosting a ride-and-drive at the Space Coast Pride Parade & Festival on Saturday, Sept. 27. The public can test drive EVs from different manufacturers, engage with local EV owners and ask questions of the organization’s EV experts.
ELECTRATON DEM’25 in Guadalajara on October 4 from 9am-5pm: This is once again the sole event in Mexico, hosted at Oscar Casillas Karting Track, where there will also be a 4th annual race of student-built electric karts alongside the EV exhibition and test drives. (Here are some photos from last year’s event, including the student kart races and a Cybertruck on track).
Not all the events are large or hosted in big cities. There are also smaller events happening in town centers, church parking lots, and so on, often with just a handful of EV owners who are typically happy to stand around and have a frank discussion with members of the public about what it’s like to own an EV, or to network with other local EV owners.
Many of these events are happening in conjunction with Sun Day, a global day of action calling for a sun-powered planet on September 21 this year. These events will focus on how solar has become a drastically cheaper form of energy, and highlight ways that everyone can benefit from more solar and by electrifying whatever uses energy in our lives – whether that be vehicles, appliances, etc.
On that front, one notable Drive Electric/Sun Day event will be in Whittier, CA on Sep. 20th (not the 21st) from 11am-3pm, with test drives, an electrified home tour, and an eco scavenger hunt. It’s being organized by one of the original founders of National Drive Electric Week, so expect to see some EV oldtimers at this one.
If you’d like to attend any of these events, either to show your vehicle, to volunteer to help run the event, or just to show up and look around, you can check out the list of events, then go to each event’s page to find more information. Remember to click the “RSVP” or “Volunteer” links near the top to register your interest (or register at the links mentioned in the event description).
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