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Before we get to bowl season, we need to get through awards season, and this year’s group of nominees are a who’s who of college football’s best.

Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and more will all be looking to take home hardware at this year’s “Home Depot College Football Awards” on Friday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App) .

Here are our picks for who should be honored — and who will actually nab the trophies.

Chuck Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year)

Finalists: UCLA‘s Laiatu Latu, Alabama‘s Dallas Turner and NC State‘s Payton Wilson

Who should win: Wilson

It’s easy to look at something as simple as sacks and peg Latu or Turner as the favorite here, but the award goes to the best overall defender, and it’s impossible to ignore Wilson’s all-around dominance. He’s one of just 24 Power 5 linebackers to have at least 75 snaps as a pass-rusher and 250 or more in coverage, and of that group, Wilson has the best tackle rate (94.9%), the most run stuffs (25), the most tackles for loss (17.5), the most takeaways (5) and the most passes defended (8) — not to mention the most tackles overall (138). He’s one of just two players to have made or assisted on a TFL in every game this season, and he leads all Power 5 defenders in tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage (37). Since 2018, he’s one of just three players to rack up 100 tackles, 15 TFLs, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions in the same season. He has done everything.

Who will win: Latu

We’re not saying voters are easily swayed by one or two gaudy stats, but Latu has the sexiest numbers of any of the nominees: 13 sacks (most in Power 5) and 21.5 tackles for loss (most in FBS). He’s more of a one-trick pony than Wilson — but it’s a pretty darned impressive trick.


Fred Biletnikoff Award (outstanding receiver)

Finalists: Ohio State‘s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU‘s Malik Nabers and Washington‘s Rome Odunze

Who should win: Odunze

All due respect to the other two finalists, but when Washington — the No. 2 overall playoff seed — had its season on the line, it put the ball in Odunze’s hands because, as coach Kalen DeBoer said, he was the best player on the field. Odunze’s 81 catches, 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns are all impressive — though, in fairness, all fall short of the stats compiled by Nabers. But Odunze has a higher catch rate on contested throws and a higher rate of first downs, and it’s impossible to ignore how critical some of his catches were in shaping the playoff race in 2023.

Who will win: Harrison

Honestly, pick any one of the three, and you’d get little pushback. They all have a compelling case, they’re all more than deserving, and all three have been among the very best players at any position this season. But it’s hard to imagine Harrison’s Ohio State career coming and going without him taking home this trophy. He has been so dominant — and at times this year, as the only real offensive threat on the field — that this feels as much a lifetime achievement award as it is one for the best receiver in 2023.


Lou Groza Collegiate Place-Kicker Award (outstanding place-kicker)

Finalists: Miami (Ohio)‘s Graham Nicholson, UNLV‘s Jose Pizano and Alabama’s Will Reichard

Who should win: Pizano

He missed just two kicks all season, and was a perfect 16-of-16 on anything less than 40 yards. He connected on both of his attempts beyond 50, so he has the leg. But the most impressive thing about Pizano’s efforts were the impact his kicks had on UNLV’s season. Six of his field goals put the Rebels ahead. In the playoff era, Pizano is one of just 10 kickers to have at least 20 made field goals, connect on at least 90% of his tries and have six or more of those kicks put his team ahead. Three have won the Groza, and the others all came in seasons in which another kicker with the same marks won it. Pizano is the only kicker to hit those marks in 2023.

Who will win: Reichard

Kicks at Alabama tend to get noticed a lot more than kicks at Miami (Ohio) or UNLV.


Ray Guy Award (punter of the year)

Finalists: Vanderbilt‘s Matthew Hayball, Florida State‘s Alex Mastromanno and Iowa‘s Tory Taylor

Who should win: Taylor

Have you watched any Iowa football lately? Punting is kind of a big deal. Indeed, when a fan base openly roots for punts, it is both an indictment of the offense and a serious point of pride for the guy booting those punts. Taylor certainly gave his fans their money’s worth. He punted 86 times this season — 11 more than any other player in the country. He racked up 4,119 punt yards, 752 more than anyone else and 1,014 more yards than Iowa’s offense managed. (In fact, Taylor punted for more yards than 33 offenses in FBS.)

Who will win: Taylor

Not only should he win, they should probably name a street after him in Iowa City.


Maxwell Award (college player of the year)

Finalists: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon‘s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

Who should win: Daniels

There are lots of ways to measure who the best player in college football is, but here’s one pretty simple metric: Who averaged the most yards? That’d be Daniels … by an incredible 74 yards per game. OK, another one: Who was responsible for the most touchdowns? Again, it’s Daniels with 50 (40 passing and 10 rushing), who had four more total TDs than Nix despite playing one fewer game. Here’s one more amazing stat for the LSU QB: In the history of college football, only one player has ever had 50 touchdowns, committed five or fewer turnovers and averaged 400 yards of offense per game. That’s Daniels. No one else is close.

Who will win: Daniels

In eight of the past nine years, the Maxwell winner has also taken home the Heisman. Here’s guessing Daniels makes it nine of 10.


Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award (best quarterback)

Finalists: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

Who should win: Daniels

As noted above, he was quite good at pretty much everything.

Who will win: Penix

Unlike the Maxwell Award, the Davey O’Brien tends to differ a bit from the Heisman and leans toward quarterbacks who also won a bunch of games. That might be the edge Penix needs to win it. Because while Nix had the nifty completion percentage, he lost head-to-head against Penix twice. And while Daniels’ stat line is on another planet, LSU never sniffed the playoff, while Penix has his Washington Huskies in the mix for a national title.


Outland Trophy (most outstanding interior lineman)

Finalists: Notre Dame‘s Joe Alt, Kansas State‘s Cooper Beebe and TexasT’Vondre Sweat

Who should win: Alt

The Notre Dame left tackle has been arguably the best offensive lineman in the country the past two seasons. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top tackle for the second straight season, and his numbers support the placement. He allowed just three pressures and one sack all season from his left tackle spot, and on 347 run-blocking snaps, he blew just two.

Who will win: Alt

All three finalists had tremendous seasons, but sometimes the obvious pick is obvious for a reason.


Paycom Jim Thorpe Award (best defensive back)

Finalists: Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, Georgia‘s Malaki Starks and Air Force‘s Trey Taylor

Who should win: Taylor

He’s the odd man out when it comes to notoriously tough defenses, but the numbers make Taylor’s case pretty easy. He has more interceptions (3) than DeJean or Starks. He has 30 more tackles (71) than Starks and 40 more than DeJean. He allowed just 72 total yards on 21 targets in coverage, posting an eye-popping 0.22 yards per coverage snap.

Who will win: Starks

DeJean missed three games down the stretch. Taylor plays in the Mountain West. Starks played on a team that spent the bulk of the season atop the rankings. At the end of the day, Starks was certainly good enough to win — 51 tackles, 7 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, 0.4 yards per coverage snap — but the extra eyeballs on his games certainly don’t hurt.


Doak Walker Award (premier running back)

Finalists: Oklahoma State‘s Ollie Gordon II, North Carolina‘s Omarion Hampton and Missouri‘s Cody Schrader

Who should win: Gordon

Gordon led the nation in rushing yards (1,614), finished second in rushing TDs (20) and finished third among Power 5 backs in yards per rush. He topped 100 yards in eight of his past 10 games and had one stretch of three straight games with more than 270 yards of total offense.

Who will win: Gordon

Among the finalists, he has the most rushing yards, most touchdowns, best yards-per-carry average and the most scrimmage yards, while also being the only one of the three to play for a conference title. Sometimes it’s easy.


John Mackey Award (outstanding tight end)

Finalists: Ohio State’s Cade Stover, Georgia’s Brock Bowers and Colorado State‘s Dallin Holker

Who should win: Bowers

OK, so he missed three games. What Bowers does in 10 games is more than what most tight ends do in … a lifetime? Despite running nearly half as many routes as Holker, Bowers finished with the same number of receiving TDs (six) and just eight fewer catches and 43 fewer yards.

Who will win: Bowers

He’ll take his trophy and every defensive coordinator in the SEC will breathe a sigh of relief that they won’t have to see him again in a Georgia uniform.

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Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

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Kiley McDaniel's favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.

After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner

Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.


Five favorite moves

Mariners and Pirates get their guys

The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.

A’s select Arnold and Taylor

The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.

Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young

The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.

What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).

Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?

Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.

The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson

The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.

He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.

Five eye-openers

Eli Willits at No. 1

The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.

Tyler Bremner at No. 2

The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.

Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.

Tigers take Yost and Oliveto

I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.

Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.

The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.

Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second

It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).

Guardians lean into power

The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.


Best available for Day 2

Listed by top 250 draft rankings

43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)

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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

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Shocks at No. 1 -- and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.

The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.

We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.


A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?

Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.

Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.

Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.


What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?

Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.

Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.

Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.


Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?

Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.

Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.

Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.


What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?

Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.

Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.

Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.

Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.

On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.

With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.

Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet

Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.


2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.

Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.


2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet

Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.

Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.


2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet

Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.

Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.


2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet

Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.

Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.


2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet

Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.

Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.


2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.

Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet

Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.

Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.

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