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James Madison has won 28 games in three seasons, while South Alabama has won 24. Louisiana has four 10-win seasons in the past six years, Troy has five in the past nine, and Appalachian State has five in the past 10. Hell, even with a recent stumble, Coastal Carolina has two in the past five.

Texas State is coming off its two best FBS seasons. Georgia Southern is coming off its best season in four years, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe their best in five and Marshall its best in nine. Even Georgia State has five winning seasons in the past eight years.

Nearly everyone in the Sun Belt has reached solid to great heights of late. Considering the immutable fact that someone has to lose every football game, that’s an awfully impressive sign of parity and general conference health.

At the moment, though, there’s a bit of a leadership void: Troy lost its head coach after winning the 2022 and 2023 Sun Belt titles and fell off last fall, and damned if Marshall doesn’t look primed to do exactly the same after last season’s title run. Does that mean it’s James Madison’s turn? The Dukes dropped the baton in 2024, falling out of contention thanks to a pair of maddening two-point losses. If they stumble again, will that leave the door open for Louisiana? Texas State? South Alabama? Another team?

Someone has to come out on top. Let’s preview the Sun Belt!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.

Earlier previews: MAC | Conference USA | Mountain West

2024 recap

Last season, the best teams on paper weren’t the best in close games, and that made the Sun Belt race an awfully surprising one. James Madison and Texas State both finished in the SP+ top 50, but they each went 1-2 in one-score Sun Belt finishes, and late defensive stumbles left them on the outside of the conference race. South Alabama hinted at major upside but couldn’t close games out either.

Louisiana was next up on the SP+ hierarchy and used a six-game winning streak to earn a spot in the Sun Belt championship game, but a pair of late-season QB injuries rendered its offense incompetent in the title game. And while everyone else was stumbling late, Marshall peaked: The Thundering Herd ranked 82nd in SP+ with just a 5-3 record heading into Week 11 but won their last five games by an average of 35-19 and grabbed the title, all while an evidently contentious school/coach relationship was pushing Charles Huff out the door. (He landed at Southern Miss.)

It was an odd season, in other words. And if I have any say in the matter, 2025 will be just as odd.


Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players, and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

We’re quickly growing accustomed to a new head coach bringing some of his old players with him. But we’ve got an extreme example of that going on at Southern Miss in 2025: When USM hired Huff the day after Marshall’s Sun Belt championship win, so many Marshall players entered the transfer portal that the school had to opt out of its Independence Bowl berth.

When the dust settled, 50 Marshall players had entered the portal in the winter and spring windows, and 21 of them had landed at Southern Miss. About one-fourth of the Golden Eagles’ roster played in Huntington last year. And despite new Herd head coach Tony Gibson bringing in 55 transfers of his own, Marshall heads toward the 2025 season with the lowest returning production averages in the country. The Herd officially return three starters from last year’s champ, while Southern Miss, which went 1-11 last season, returns five. Mind-blowing stuff.

Other interesting continuity notes: Despite losing star running back Ahmad Hardy to Missouri, ULM’s production numbers are good after a refreshing 5-7 campaign in Bryant Vincent’s first season at the helm; Georgia Southern hit the 60% mark as well; and at the other end, App State is starting over: After suffering their first losing season at the FBS level, the Mountaineers will have a new head coach (Dowell Loggains) and approximately 17 new starters.


2025 projections

SP+ basically declares JMU the favorite, then shrugs. The Dukes were frustrating but frequently awesome in 2024, and they return exciting dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III — assuming full health after a late-season injury, anyway — plus a loaded running back room and, despite losing star defensive end Eric O’Neill to Rutgers, maybe the conference’s most proven set of defensive personnel. They deserve the top spot, and if they stumble again, I have absolutely no idea who should be next on the list.

Meanwhile, the projections for Marshall and Southern Miss serve as a reminder that, despite making lots of adjustments to how I go about creating SP+ projections, it’s really hard to get a statistical read on what either the Herd or Golden Eagles might be capable of in 2025. I would expect Southern Miss to be a prime overachievement candidate, while Marshall really might struggle to even rank 87th.

Indeed, after JMU up top, SP+ gives nine teams between a 5% and 11% chance of winning the conference title. As with last year, whoever wins its close games and peaks in November will have an excellent chance.


Five best games of 2025

Here’s where I typically share the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. But since all the top games (and the top nonconference game) feature James Madison — the Dukes have quite the road slate ahead — I tweaked the approach a bit. Here are five big games, if not the five best as defined above.

James Madison at Liberty (Sept. 20). For all we know, this one might have College Football Playoff implications. JMU and Liberty have been two of the more steadily strong Group of 5 programs over the last two or three years, and both stumbled at inopportune times in 2024.

JMU’s schedule is a road-heavy delight, from top to bottom. The Dukes visit Louisville and Liberty in September, then visit Texas State, Marshall and Coastal Carolina over the back half of the season. Throw in home games against Georgia Southern and Louisiana and a late November visit from Washington State, and you’ve got one unique slate.

Georgia Southern at James Madison (Sept. 27). SP+ is optimistic about Georgia Southern’s chances of becoming a contender in 2025, and this game will be a pretty solid prove-it opportunity in that regard.

South Alabama at Troy (Oct. 4). South Alabama might have lost more talent than anyone else in FBS in the spring portal window, but the Jaguars still return quite a bit, and Troy’s continuity levels are solid after a setback season. Depending on how well Texas State handles roster turnover, the winner of this one could become Louisiana’s biggest competitor in the West Division. (That’s right: The Sun Belt still has divisions! And makes actual geographic sense!)

Louisiana at James Madison (Oct. 11) and Louisiana at South Alabama (Nov. 1). Like JMU, Michael Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns will need to be road warriors to fulfill their potential.


Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Head coach: Bob Chesney (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: 49th in SP+, 8.5 average wins (6.0 in the Sun Belt)

Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston … we’ve seen plenty of excellent FCS-to-FBS transitions through the years. But JMU might turn out to be the gold standard in this regard. The Dukes began FBS life with five straight wins and an AP poll appearance, and it was a genuine surprise that they didn’t play for the Sun Belt title in their first season eligible last year. The next time they finish outside of the SP+ top 50 will be the first, and they aren’t projected to do so in 2025.

It would be even brighter, potentially, if we knew Alonza Barnett III would be 100%. The junior QB combined 2,598 passing yards (and a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) with 669 non-sack rushing yards last year before injuring his leg against Marshall. He was cleared only for non-contact drills this spring, and his status remains unclear. Heading into his second season after succeeding Curt Cignetti, Chesney took no chances, bringing in two QB transfers: Richmond’s Camden Coleman and Matthew Sluka;. Sluka is known primarily for his NIL-related opt-out at UNLV last season, but before that he was a star for Chesney at Holy Cross, leaving as the Crusaders’ No. 2 career rusher and No. 5 career passer and a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist (top player in FCS). Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy love a nice, durable dual-threat QB, and both Sluka and Coleman (to a degree) qualify if Barnett isn’t ready.

The RB corps might be one of the best in the FBS. George Pettaway and backups Wayne Knight and Jobi Malary combined to average 22 carries per game and 6.0 yards per carry, and Ayo Adeyi, injured for most of 2024, was a 1,000-yard rusher at North Texas in 2023. The line in front of them does have to replace three starters, but right tackle Pat McMurtrie is the only returning player on the first-team All-Sun Belt list, three other returning veterans have starting experience, and Chesney brought in former North Carolina center Zach Greenberg and all-Patriot League selection Cam McNair (Holy Cross), among four transfers. He also dipped heavily into the portal to find pass catchers: Sure-handed slot man Yamir Knight will be joined by both former power conference reserves in Braeden Wisloski (Maryland) and 6-foot-4 Isaiah Alston (Iowa State) and FCS starters Landon Ellis (Richmond), Nick DeGennaro (Richmond) and Jaylan Sanchez (Villanova).

Chesney also was pretty aggressive on defense, adding 13 transfers to a lineup that boasts some proven pieces — 315-pound tackle Immanuel Bush, linebacker Trent Hendrick, safety Jacob Thomas, nickel DJ Barksdale — but returns only seven of the 19 players who saw at least 200 snaps in 2024. Again, he dipped heavily into the FCS ranks, bringing in stars such as defensive end Xavier Holmes (12.5 TFLs at Maine), tackle Andrew Taddeo (7.5 TFLs at Colgate), linebacker JT Kouame-Yao (11.5 TFLs at Shepherd), safety Curtis Harris-Lopez (9.5 TFLs and nine passes defended at Holy Cross) and corner TJ McGill (six passes defended as a freshman at William & Mary), plus former blue-chip defensive end Aiden Gobaira (Notre Dame).

There are enough new pieces here that success isn’t guaranteed, but the combination of proven talent and proven smaller-school playmakers — especially at a school that has more than proven that FCS stars can become FBS stalwarts — makes JMU the preseason conference favorite. It’s up to the Dukes to close the deal this time.


Head coach: Major Applewhite (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 76th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.2 in the Sun Belt)

As a redshirt freshman, Gio Lopez ranked seventh among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR. He’s a North Carolina Tar Heel now. As a true freshman, Fluff Bothwell was a bolt of lightning, gaining 924 yards in just 124 combined rushes and receptions and scoring 13 times. He’s now a Mississippi State Bulldog. Right tackle Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) … edge rusher Aakil Washington (SMU) … cornerbacks Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest) and Amarion Fortenberry (Kansas State) … injured cornerback Ricky Fletcher (Ole Miss) … nickel back Jordan Scruggs (West Virginia) … even kicker Laith Marjan (Kansas). A whole bunch of South Alabama players flashed major potential, then got plucked away in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Rob Izell (Wake Forest) basically did too.

Players moving up and down the ladder with lightning speed is a symptom of the portal era, and few schools had more players move up than Major Applewhite’s USA. If you look solely at who they don’t have, in fact, it’s hard to envision the Jags playing a major role in the Sun Belt race in 2025.

If you look at who they do have, however, they might still have a chance:

• Quarterbacks Bishop Davenport and Zach Pyron (Georgia Tech) both have starting experience and have flashed dual-threat capabilities.

• Veteran running back Kentrel Bullock had 984 rushing and receiving yards (5.9 per touch) despite sharing touches with Bothwell.

• Left tackle Jordan Davis is an all-conference contender and one of three returning starters up front. Applewhite managed to hold on to most of last year’s two-deep, in fact, and added six O-line transfers.

• Defensive tackle Ed Smith IV made 7.0 tackles at or behind the line last year and has strong pass rushing chops for his size, and 334-pound Stephen Johnson (McNeese State) is one of four defensive line transfers.

• Linebacker Blayne Myrick is among the most proven run stoppers in the league.

Few of Applewhite’s defensive transfers have a disruptive track record like JMU’s — defensive end IBK Mafe (St. Thomas) and corner Jayvon Henderson (East Tennessee State) are the most promising in that regard — but most of them are higher-upside youngsters who might develop into solid pieces. (Of course, that also might mean they get plucked away.) If either Davenport or Pyron are ready to shine and an unproven receiving corps provides some semblance of value, it sure seems like there’s enough talent here to at least continue a three-year run of bowl eligibility. Sun Belt contention will require quite a few newcomers and youngsters to break through. Considering how many did last year, there’s a chance.


Head coach: Clay Helton (fourth year, 20-19 overall)

2025 projection: 78th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.0 in the Sun Belt)

Clay Helton served as an early model of how portal life can work when he arrived at Georgia Southern in 2022, immediately reset the Eagles’ entire identity with a batch of key transfers and still managed to upset Nebraska and double their win total. I don’t want to overstate his success — he’s basically .500 through three years — but in an increasingly volatile G5 environment, he’s produced stable results. And despite offensive inconsistency, last year was his best yet: Georgia Southern inched up to 76th in SP+ and won eight games.

In 2025, Helton and the Eagles boast a promising combination of proven pieces and intriguing new ones. Quarterback JC French threw too many interceptions last year (11) and must improve in that regard, but in slot receivers Dalen Cobb and Josh Dallas (combined: 1,213 yards and 10 TDs), tight end River Helms (Western Kentucky) and returning third-down back OJ Arnold, the Eagles have the components of an efficient attack. That’s doubly true when you see that they have the most proven interior line in the league: Both guards, Pichon Wimbley and Caleb Cook, are all-conference contenders. A little big-play boost would be great — Dallas did average 13.4 yards per catch, and incoming transfer Dylan Gary (West Georgia) averaged 16.9 in FCS — but there are proven commodities here for coordinator Ryan Aplin.

The defense was too bend-don’t-break for my taste, but it was also the most competent defense yet for Helton and coordinator Brandon Bailey: The Eagles’ No. 91 defensive SP+ ranking was their best since 2020. Helton was evidently confident enough in what he’s returning that he mostly aimed young in the portal, bringing in five redshirt freshmen or sophomores (all former high-three or four-star recruits) among eight transfers. Senior linebacker Brendan Harrington (Appalachian State) should provide stability, but this year’s success will be driven primarily by returnees like 340-pounder Latrell Bullard up front and nickel Ayden Jackson and corners Tracy Hill Jr. and Chance Gamble in the back.

The upside here isn’t enormous, but big-play prevention and an efficient offense should drive another bowl season at worst. And if JMU indeed falters again, the Eagles’ high floor and solid veterans might make them the most likely team to take advantage in the East division. We’ll know what we need to know pretty early on: Their rough nonconference schedule (at Fresno State, at USC, Jacksonville State) will either beat them down or properly prepare them for a Sun Belt slate that begins with a trip to JMU.


Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fourth year, 23-18 overall)

2025 projection: 74th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (4.9 in the Sun Belt)

After going 34-5 with three consecutive SP+ top-50 finishes from 2019 to 2021, Louisiana took a brief step backward in transitioning from Florida-bound Billy Napier to Michael Desormeaux. But after back-to-back six-win seasons, Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns were ready to roll again last fall. At least, they were until QB injuries wrecked their plans. They survived one injury (to Ben Wooldridge) while starting 10-2 and rising as high as 34th in SP+, but a second one (to Chandler Fields) spelled doom; in their last two games, the Ragin’ Cajuns were outscored by a combined 65-6 against Marshall and TCU.

It was a sign of confidence from Desormeaux that he didn’t load up on transfers despite losing about eight offensive and seven defensive starters. In that regard, a lot of Louisiana’s fate will be determined by players who were also in a Louisiana uniform last season. Running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry (combined: 1,491 rushing yards and 13 TDs), right guard Jax Harrington (6-foot-4, 327 pounds), disruptive defensive lineman Jordan Lawson (5.5 sacks at 293 pounds) and edge rusher Cameron Whitfield (11.5 TFLs) are all all-Sun Belt contenders. But the Cajuns are mostly starting over in both the receiving corps (which lost six of last year’s top seven) and the secondary (which lost last year’s top four). Sophomore safety Kody Jackson seems like a keeper, but transfers might tell the tale in both the passing game and pass defense.

Among the seven transfers Desormeaux brought in are three former blue-chippers in quarterback Walker Howard (Ole Miss), receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (LSU) and cornerback Curley Reed III (Washington). Howard was a top-50 prospect in the 2022 class, Sampson was top-75 in 2023, and both looked good in the spring. If they’re difference-makers, and both Reed and Richmond transfer Trae Tomlinson are solid at corner, Louisiana immediately becomes the West division favorite again. But if they aren’t, I’m not sure they have what they need.

Then again, maybe that’s just me overreacting to last year’s late offensive collapse. Like Napier, Desormeaux has proven himself in the recruiting department, and the Cajuns are all but guaranteed to have some of the highest levels of athleticism and physicality in the conference. The offense has ranked 50th or better in offensive SP+ five times in six years, and while the defense has slipped recently, it still has three top-50 finishes in five seasons. The bar here is high, and the combination of depth and blue-chip additions might give them a chance to clear it.


A couple of breaks away from a run

Head coach: Gerad Parker (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 86th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.8 in the Sun Belt)

With a combination of deep and experienced line play and big-play potential, Troy won back-to-back Sun Belt titles in 2022 and 2023; the Trojans ranked in the defensive SP+ top 30 in both seasons and rose to 26th overall in 2023. In two seasons, Jon Sumrall proved that, with the right set of hands in charge, this chip-on-shoulder program can absolutely shine.

Gerad Parker could still prove himself, but he had very little chance in 2024. Virtually every proven playmaker was gone, as were most of both lines. The offense remained efficient thanks primarily to quarterback Matthew Caldwell, receiver Devonte Ross and running back Damien Taylor, but the Trojans stopped making big plays and started allowing a ton of them, and almost nothing worked during a 1-7 start.

The offense clicked late as Troy won three of its last four, but Caldwell (Texas), Ross (Penn State) and Taylor (Ole Miss) all departed for big-time schools. The Trojans have solid experience and excellent size in the trenches: Left guard Eli Russ (6-foot-4, 313 pounds) will anchor the offensive line, tackle Julian Peterson (eight TFLs at 310 pounds) leads the defensive front, and Parker added five power-conference transfers on the two lines. They will look the part physically, and veteran quarterback Goose Crowder, who began 2024 as the starter, should be decent. But the skill corps is drastically unproven. Three receiver transfers — Rara Thomas (Georgia), Tray Taylor (Coastal Carolina) and Kristian Tate (Delta State) — will need to click, and former blue-chipper (and 2024 transfer) Mojo Dortch will need to provide more than the two catches and minus-2 yards he managed last season. The running back corps, meanwhile, is almost completely devoid of known quantities.

Between Peterson, linebacker Jordan Stringer and safety Justin Powe, the spine of the defense should be solid, and the run defense should be disruptive. But even with Powe and a delightful nickel in Devin Lafayette, Troy ranked just 112th in yards allowed per dropback and 126th in completion rate allowed last season. As with the receiving corps, transfers — corners Kaleno Levine (Missouri State) and Jaquez White (Washburn), safeties Steven Sannieniola (Vanderbilt) and David Daniel-Sisavanh (Georgia) — will play a big role in propping up the pass defense and telling Troy’s tale in 2025.


Head coach: G.J. Kinne (third year, 16-10 overall)

2025 projection: 93rd in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.1 in the Sun Belt)

It’s weird that we’ve gotten this far and haven’t yet brought up the team that finished 48th in SP+ and nearly beat CFP-bound Arizona State last year, right? That probably tells you how much of last year’s Texas State team is no longer in San Marcos. G.J. Kinne both inherited and defied perennially low expectations at TXST in each of the last two years, and he’ll have a chance to do so again after losing his offensive coordinator (Mack Leftwich), starting quarterback (Jordan McCloud), leading rusher (Ismail Mahdi), top three receivers, three offensive line starters and 14 of the 18 defenders with at least 250 snaps last season.

Kinne is a fearless transfer portal aficionado. He brought in another 36 transfers this season, including three quarterbacks (Pitt’s Nate Yarnell, SMU’s Keldric Luster and former Auburn blue-chipper Holden Geriner), eight skill corps guys and 19 defenders. This year’s transfer haul is a mix of semi-proven G5 or smaller-school guys — running back Greg Burrell (UNLV), slot receiver Tiaquelin Mims (Southern Miss), linebackers Ayden Jones (Prairie View A&M) and Cole Nilles (Bryant), corners Jaden Rios (East Texas A&M) and Malik Willis (Campbell), safety Javis Mynatt (Wofford) — and young and unproven power-conference transfers. There are some former blue-chippers like Geriner, receiver Mavin Anderson (Cal), defensive tackle Bryce Carter (Virginia) and linebacker Terrence Cooks (TCU) in the mix as well.

Kinne has quickly grown accustomed to asking members of a transient roster for immediate contributions, but when it came time to replace the Texas Tech-bound Leftwich, he went with a familiar face: Landon Keopple is a former small-school coordinator who joined up with Kinne about five years ago and understands Kinne’s modern spread as well as anyone.

A Kinne team is going to score points, but defensive improvement was a key piece of last year’s first-ever top-50 finish. Coordinator Dexter McCoil returns star end Kalil Alexander (11 run stops, 6.5 sacks), and corner Trez Moore and safeties Ryan Nolan and Darius Jackson were decent rotation pieces last year, but most of the 2025 lineup will be new. That’s an opportunity for improvement or regression. My guess is that the Bobcats defy projections once again, but if the defense falls off, that will be difficult.


Head coach: Tim Beck (third year, 14-12 overall)

2025 projection: 95th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (4.1 in the Sun Belt)

The Coastal Carolina of the last couple of years — with Tim Beck replacing Liberty-bound Jamey Chadwell in 2023 — has reminded me a lot of the first couple of Louisiana teams after Billy Napier: fine but distinctly underwhelming. After slipping to 74th in SP+ in Chadwell’s final season, the Chanticleers held steady at 68th in 2023 but last season slipped to an injury-plagued 99th, with both the offense and defense regressing. Lineup stability was a huge impediment: Only four players started all 13 games.

Nothing feels definitively wrong with the Chants, but you could see the talent coming together at Louisiana, and the Cajuns’ offense was consistently solid even during the two-year lull. Things appear a little less proven at Coastal: Neither unit has been consistent, quarterback Ethan Vasko (Liberty) and running back Braydon Bennett (Virginia Tech) transferred, and of 24 defenders who started at least one game (again: serious lineup instability here) only six return.

But I love what Beck did in the portal this offseason, especially on defense. He landed five players who made at least five TFLs at their last school — ends Noah Arinze (New Mexico State) and Jordan Mack (Seton Hill), linebackers Luke Murphy (Eastern Michigan) and Dontae Lunan (Albany) and safety Jacob Robinson (Emory & Henry) — and added four former blue-chippers as well: end Darrion Henry-Young (Kentucky), safety DeAndre Boykins (North Carolina) and corners Ja’Marion Wayne (Missouri) and Robby Washington (Miami). Throw in decent holdovers in tackle Sawyer Goram-Welch, linebacker Shane Bruce and big safety Xamarion Gordon, and it feels like there’s a lot to work with here.

I’m less blown away by the additions on offense, though each of two quarterbacks, Emmett Brown (San Jose State) and MJ Morris (Maryland), seems to have decent potential. But quantity could create quality: Among three veteran wideouts (Jameson Tucker, Cameron Wright and Bryson Graves), Ball State transfer Malcolm Gillie and three FCS transfers who combined for 2,151 yards last year (Western Illinois’ Eli Aragon, West Georgia’s Karmello English and Furman’s Colton Hinton), a strong receiving corps should come together. And up front, some combination of six linemen with starting experience, four transfers and a JUCO should create a solid two-deep. Breakthrough coming? I can’t promise that, but it does feel like the ingredients have added up.


Head coach: Dowell Loggains (first year)

2025 projection: 98th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.0 in the Sun Belt)

Appalachian State doesn’t do “losing seasons.” Before 2024, the Mountaineers’ last sub-.500 season came in 2013, when they stumbled to 4-8 in their final FCS campaign and their first year after the legendary Jerry Moore’s retirement. The time before that? 1993! But things fell apart for Shawn Clark last fall, and App State looked like far more of an also-ran than we’re used to.

In an existential moment, schools often look within for the answer, asking someone with deep ties to rally the program and save the day. App State went in the other direction. Dowell Loggains spent the first 16 years of his coaching career in the NFL before moving to the college ranks in 2021. In 2023-24, he served as South Carolina’s offensive coordinator. In the year before his arrival, the Gamecocks ranked 25th in offensive SP+; in his two seasons there, they were 58th and 35th, respectively.

He can recruit, though. Loggains’ first App State roster lost more than 40 players to the transfer portal, but among the more than 30 incoming transfers are a number of former high-three or four-star recruits: quarterbacks AJ Swann (LSU) and JJ Kohl (Iowa State), running backs Rashod Dubinion (Arkansas) and Khalifa Keith (Tennessee), receiver Davion Dozier (Arkansas), tight end Izayah Cummings (Louisville), linebacker Brayshawn Littlejohn (Missouri), corner Emory Floyd (South Carolina), nickel Ja’Den McBurrows (Michigan) and others. Loggains also dipped into the FCS well to land a few transfers, including 1,000-yard receiver Jaden Barnes (Austin Peay) and defensive end Joseph Bakhole (East Tennessee).

Few on the roster have actually proven themselves at the FBS level. Offensive guards Jayden Ramsey and Griffin Scroggs and defensive ends Thomas Davis and Shawn Collins are good, and the secondary is experienced if nothing else. Swann, Kohl and freshman Noah Gillon evidently all had solid moments in spring practice — funny how everyone’s always good in spring ball, huh? — and no one’s going to doubt the athletic potential of this roster. The potential seems to give the Mountaineers a pretty high ceiling, and the drastically unproven roster gives them a scary-low floor. This school doesn’t know how to handle losing because it hasn’t had to; that makes this just about the most interesting team in the conference in 2025.


Head coach: Butch Jones (fifth year, 19-31 overall)

2025 projection: 100th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.6 in the Sun Belt)

There was a time when Arkansas State openly talked about becoming the Boise State of the South. Hell, back in 2012, as the Red Wolves were finishing up a second straight 10-win season, attendance was topping 31,000, nearly BSU-esque levels. The Red Wolves averaged 9.3 wins while hiring three straight single-year up-and-comers (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin), then settled into a 7.3-win average in seven seasons under Blake Anderson. When he stumbled, ASU chose someone on the other side of the age-and-ambition line: former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones, who has averaged 4.8 wins. Attendance has perked up as the win total has improved, but it was still 28% lower last year than it had been a decade earlier.

That makes capitalizing on last year’s eight-win campaign pretty important. Fans were treated to five home wins, all in dramatic fashion; it was the kind of season that can rekindle interest. It was also almost impossible to replicate. SP+ basically saw a four-win team that accidentally won eight games, and then that team lost about 17 starters. Jones has to stare up at a much higher bar while rebuilding his roster again.

ASU’s offense is generally perky under coordinator Keith Heckendorf, and that shouldn’t change with quarterback Jaylen Raynor, 1,000-yard receiver Corey Rucker and running back Ja’Quez Cross joined by fun newcomers like receiver Jaylen Bonelli (Wagner).

But the defense is completely starting over. Just one starter returns (plus another from 2023), and Jones had to find a lot of portal answers. I do think he found some good ones: End Demarcus Hendricks (Texas A&M-Kingsville) and tackle Cody Sigler (West Alabama) were double-digit TFL guys, and cornerback Joedrick Lewis (SE Missouri State) had a huge season in 2023. The two primary returning pieces — end Bryan Whitehead and linebacker Javante Mackey — are disruptive too, and players like tackle Gavin Ransaw (Coastal) and safety AG McGhee (Marshall) should be useful. ASU hasn’t ranked in the double digits in defensive SP+ since 2018, but there’s some talent here. Still, if last year’s good fortune turns, it’s going to be awfully hard for ASU to approach eight wins.


Head coach: Ricky Rahne (fifth year, 20-30 overall)

2025 projection: 103rd in SP+, 4.8 average wins (3.6 in the Sun Belt)

Be it Bobby Wilder (2014-19) or Ricky Rahne (2021-present) leading the way, Old Dominion seems to have found its level.

Wilder: 31-42 (.425 win percentage), 106.5 average SP+ ranking

Rahne: 20-30 (.400 win percentage), 103.5 average SP+ ranking

Rahne’s results have been more consistent, for better (no 1-11 seasons like Wilder) or worse (exactly seven losses in three of four years), but on average the product has remained the same.

If you squint just right, however, you might see hints of progress. ODU’s No. 95 SP+ ranking last year was its best since 2016, and six of seven losses were by a touchdown or less (including a season-opening 23-19 defeat to South Carolina). The Monarchs are in the top half of the conference in returning production too. The offense improved despite having to start three different quarterbacks, and redshirt freshman Colton Joseph looked promising there in eight starts. The offensive line is experienced and physical, and thanks to the return of all-world tackling machine Jason Henderson — see chart below — after a 2024 injury, the defensive front six returns four guys capable of double-digit TFLs: linebackers Henderson, Koa Naotala and Mario Thompson and defensive end Kris Trinidad.

The Monarchs have quite a few proven entities, but progress in 2025 will be determined by the success of two rebuilds: those of the skill corps and secondary.

Last season, eight ODU RBs and WRs touched the ball at least 20 times; seven are gone. Running back Devin Roche is now the grizzly veteran of the skill corps despite a) being a sophomore and b) producing just 326 yards from scrimmage in 2024. Rahne brought in a pair of transfers (former Utah/Tulane WR Sidney Mbanasor and former Florida TE Dawson Johnson), but he’s hoping he struck gold in the overlooked JUCO ranks, where he grabbed one running back, four WRs and a tight end.

It’s a similar story in the secondary. Seven of last year’s top eight are gone, leaving part-time starting safety Mario Easterly and a pair of potentially promising former reserves in Jeremy Mack Jr. and Daevon Iles. Rahne again brought in a pair of four-year transfers and a big load of five JUCOs (including onetime TCU signee Kollin Collier).


Head coach: Tony Gibson (first year)

2025 projection: 99th in SP+, 5.7 average wins (3.4 in the Sun Belt)

The balance of power doesn’t usually change much in college football, but it can shift in a heartbeat in the Sun Belt. Both the 2021 (Louisiana) and 2023 champions (Troy) lost their head coaches and won seven fewer games as defending champs. And now the 2024 champion is starting over like almost no one ever has.

With Charles Huff’s departure and the player exodus that followed, Marshall is looking at the following:

• No passer on the roster threw for a yard last season.

• No returnee rushed for a yard.

• Two returnees caught passes.

• Those responsible for 49 of 65 O-line starts are gone.

• One of eight defensive linemen with at least 50 snaps returns.

• The total linebacker snaps returning is three.

• Two of 13 DBs with at least 30 snaps return.

This is mind-boggling turnover. In response, Marshall elected to lean heavily into its West Virginia roots. Glenville State graduate Tony Gibson, former defensive coordinator at NC State and West Virginia (and, back at the turn of the century, West Virginia Tech), leads the way. Glenville State grad Rod Smith, former protege of current and former WVU head coach Rich Rodriguez, is the offensive coordinator. Marshall graduate (and three-time former Marshall assistant) Shannon Morrison is the defensive coordinator. I guess if your roster has no roots whatsoever in the area, you should find coaches who do.

Gibson & Co. did their best to find experience where they could. In Zion Turner (UConn/Jacksonville State) and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Florida/Syracuse), they grabbed QBs with a combined 2,039 career passing yards. Running backs Jo’shon Barbie (McNeese State) and Tony Mathis Jr. (WVU/Houston) each have more than 1,000 career rushing yards. Among 10 receiver transfers, Adrian Norton (Akron) and Ben Turner (West Liberty) each had more than 800 yards last year. Three offensive linemen and nine defenders saw heavy smaller-school action, and a few — 6-foot-9 offensive lineman Tyler McDuffie (Hampton), 320-pound defensive tackle Naquan Crowder (California-PA), linebacker Jalen Marshall (Wofford), corners Boogie Trotter (Tennessee State) and Louikenzy Jules (Charleston), safety Cam Smith (Jackson State) — played at a particularly high level.

You can find talent on this roster, but almost none of it suited up in Kelly green and white last year. That makes the Thundering Herd almost impossible to project.


Just looking for a path to 6-6

Head coach: Bryant Vincent (second year, 5-7 overall)

2025 projection: 116th in SP+, 4.4 average wins (2.8 in the Sun Belt)

In the new House settlement, schools will be allowed to share up to $20.5 million in revenue with its athletes in a given year. Louisiana-Monroe reports total revenue of around $20 million in a given year. This school is wonderfully bull-headed in its insistence on playing FBS ball, which makes the rewards for doing so both rare and wonderful. The Warhawks’ 2012 season, in which they beat a top-10 Arkansas team on the way to eight wins, is one of my favorite underdog campaigns of the 21st century. They haven’t bowled since.

Going 5-7 last year was a genuine victory, though it came with the disappointment of a 5-1 start and an 0-6 finish. Bryant Vincent helped to resurrect the UAB program and brings serious underdog bona fides to the table; he found relative success with a combination of a run-heavy offense and the school’s best defense in six years.

The defense returns 11 of the 17 players with at least 200 snaps, including stars in end Kevontay Wells, OLB Billy Pullen and corner David Godsey Jr. Vincent added eight transfers and six JUCOs as well, so depth should be solid. On offense, sophomore quarterback Aidan Armenta returns, but that only means so much because ULM is going to run the ball as much as it’s allowed to.

Ahmad Hardy transferred after rushing for 1,351 yards as a freshman, but his success drew in four running back transfers — including Richmond 1,300-yard rusher Zach Palmer-Smith — and freshman D’Shaun Ford, one of the most highly touted recruits ULM has seen. Three of six regular linemen return, in addition to one transfer and three JUCOs. Last year’s rushing-and-D formula will be this year’s rushing-and-D formula.


Head coach: Dell McGee (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 114th in SP+, 3.7 average wins (2.4 in the Sun Belt)

All things considered, Dell McGee did one hell of a job last season. Hired after spring practice had already begun in February 2024, he navigated through massive post-spring turnover, then crafted a team capable of upsetting Vanderbilt in September and Texas State in November. His Panthers weren’t good — between those upsets were seven straight losses — but they were occasionally spicy, and things ended up merely bad, not apocalyptic.

McGee is still searching for stability in Year 2. He needed two tries to land a defensive coordinator — he went with Travis Pearson when Deron Wilson left for Florida after two weeks — and he lost nearly 40 more transfers. Depth could be an issue, but there’s upside. Quarterback Christian Veilleux and explosive receiver Ted Hurst both return, and McGee added a stable of exciting RB transfers, led by Jordon Simmons (6.0 yards per carry at Akron) and former blue-chippers Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Djay Braswell (South Carolina). The offensive line returns only one starter but welcomes six transfers and two JUCOs.

Thanks to Hurst and a solid secondary, GSU created bigger big plays than its opponents. But safety D-Icey Hopkins is the only regular defensive back returning, and McGee signed an almost conservative three transfers and two JUCOs. There’s experience in the front six, but last year’s best unit is starting over.

McGee had to know what he was getting himself into when taking the job, and while he’s still navigating through bumpy waters, his team should flash some upside if it can survive a rough early stretch — among their first five games are trips to Ole Miss and Vandy and visits from Memphis and JMU — with morale intact.


Head coach: Charles Huff (first year)

2025 projection: 128th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.1 in the Sun Belt)

What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! Two years after a semi-promising 7-6 campaign, everything fell apart for Will Hall at Southern Miss last season as the Golden Eagles plummeted to 1-11 and 133rd in SP+. That Charles Huff so quickly fled Marshall for USM might speak to the strange relationship he had with his former employer, but that’s Southern Miss’ gain. After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, Huff has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. The only returning starters: receiver Davis Dalton, right tackle Greg Nunnery and defensive tackle Brodarius Lewis. Hell, they’re almost the only returnees from the two-deep.

Former Marshall players — especially quarterback Braylon Braxton, receivers Chuck Montgomery and Carl Chester and defensive backs Josh Moten, Ahmere Foster and Ian Foster — will be key to early success, such as it exists. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson brought some players from his recent Utah State head coaching stint, too, most notably receiver Grant Page and guard Aloali’i Maui. SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.

After winning between six and nine games every year from 1994 to 2010, Southern Miss has been dramatically unstable for nearly 15 years. Even if Huff steadies the ship, it’s probably going to take him a bit. But if nothing else, the Eagles should enjoy a bit more upside in 2025.

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‘Split’ title 35 years ago? Don’t tell Colorado and Georgia Tech that

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'Split' title 35 years ago? Don't tell Colorado and Georgia Tech that

CHAD BROWN AND his Colorado teammates have gold rings. On each of them is a big number “1” filled with diamonds meant to commemorate their 1990 national title and the year they spent as the best team in the nation.

Across the country, Ken Swilling and his Georgia Tech teammates have their own gold rings, also with diamonds filling a big “1,” also meant to commemorate their 1990 national title.

Though their rings are nearly identical, members of those Colorado and Georgia Tech teams refuse to acknowledge that their seasons have a shared outcome. Players still won’t use the words “split” or “shared” when it comes to the 1990 season. Colorado points to its superior strength of schedule as the reason it is the rightful champ after going 11-1-1 and finishing No. 1 in the AP poll. Georgia Tech points to its unbeaten season as proof that it is the rightful champ after going 11-0-1 and finishing No. 1 in the coaches’ poll by one vote. Thirty-five years later, trash talk dies hard for two schools that played in the pre-BCS era and had no way to settle things on the field.

“Oh no. I would never say it was a split national championship,” Swilling said. “They can call us split, co- whatever they want to call it, but as far as Georgia Tech is concerned, we won the national championship in 1990. Heck, it took them five downs against Missouri to get the split anyway.”

“We were the best team in the nation. I have no doubts about that,” Brown says. “So people’s opinion about the Fifth-Down Game and people’s opinion about who should have won a national championship, it lands so poorly on me I don’t think about it. When someone says, ‘You won a national championship at Colorado?’ I say, ‘Yes, I did.’ ‘You don’t say you won a split national championship?’ No. Never once have I ever said I won a split national championship.”

Perhaps old scores will be settled when 1990 co- … er … national champs Colorado and Georgia Tech kick off the season in Boulder (8 p.m., ESPN), in the first meeting between the schools.

On second thought, maybe not.


IN 1989, COLORADO went undefeated in the regular season and faced Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl with the national title on the line. It lost 21-6, but their failure fueled their offseason workouts.

That, plus the memory of teammate Sal Aunese, who died of stomach cancer in 1989, drove Colorado as it headed into the 1990 season. But the first three games of the campaign did not go the way the Buffs had expected. Colorado was a surprising 1-1-1 headed into a game at Texas, having tied the season opener against No. 8 Tennessee and lost in Week 3 at No. 21 Illinois. No margin of error remained. Coach Bill McCartney had the team meet at a hotel where it usually stayed before home games. Players thought they would board buses for the airport.

Instead, McCartney called a meeting. He proceeded to lay into the entire team, calling players out by name for not playing up to their potential.

“Coach Mac usually did not make things personal,” Brown said. “This time, it was personal. He worked his way around the room, and I was the last one he got to. He turned to me and he said, ‘Chad, you’ve hurt me the most.’ He questioned my football character. For a guy who always prided himself on the way he played, that hurt.”

Brown dove into his playbook on the flight, and before leaving for the game, stared at himself in the mirror. He said to himself, “No one will ever question my football character again.”

Colorado trailed Texas 22-14 early in the fourth quarter, when running back Eric Bieniemy went into the defensive huddle and told his teammates, “Get us the ball back. We’re going to score. We’re going to win this game.”

Sure enough, Bieniemy scored a 4-yard touchdown with more than 10 minutes left to play, then ran it in from 2 yards out with 5:47 left for the winning touchdown. Brown finished with 20 tackles. Colorado players and coaches point to that game — and the speech McCartney gave his team — as the turning point in the season.

“Everybody likes to talk about the Texas turnaround, saying that I came out there and saved the game,” Bieniemy said. “No, it wasn’t anything special because there were times throughout the course of the year they had to uplift me as well.'”

Colorado dropped from its preseason position at No. 5 to No. 20, but by October, the Buffs were back to No. 12 in the AP poll. They’d still need some help to get back into the national championship race.

Players probably wouldn’t have guessed they’d need that help in Week 6 against unranked Missouri.

Before we discuss the infamous Fifth-Down Game, here’s what the Colorado players want you to know: Missouri tried to sabotage them from the start. In 1990, Missouri played on AstroTurf packed with sand. Colorado players said the school should have watered down the field before use.

That did not happen, so as play began, Colorado kept slipping and sliding all over the turf, slowing down its option game. (The Tigers, on the other hand, were familiar with the surface and knew which cleats to wear to minimize slipping.) Missouri led 31-27 with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Then Colorado, behind backup quarterback Charles Johnson and Bieniemy, started driving. On first-and-goal from the 3-yard line with 28 seconds left, Johnson spiked the ball.

On second down, Bieniemy ran for a gain of 2 down to the 1-yard line. Colorado called timeout. The person working the down marker never changed the down. Colorado center Jay Leeuwenburg noticed and told McCartney, who insisted it was still second down. Meanwhile, a fan sitting behind the Colorado bench had a heart attack and was moved down to field level for medical attention, causing further distraction.

Colorado ran three more plays — and scored on its fifth down — as Johnson crossed over the goal line. The Missouri crowd chanted “fifth down,” and when the game ended, started throwing bottles and other objects onto the field. Starting quarterback Darian Hagan, who missed the game with an injury, said he took off his rib cage brace to shield quarterbacks coach Gary Barnett from getting hit.

“A lot of people say that we cheated and we should have given the game back and all this stuff,” Hagan said. “My response to that is, ‘Why did we cheat and what were Missouri’s coaches doing? Why didn’t they know what down it was? Everybody was out of it. The referees didn’t know. So they can blame a lot of people, but at the same time, we got a national championship out of it.

“It was human error. It wasn’t like we were trying to try to pull a fast one on anyone.”

Bieniemy said he legitimately had no idea that Colorado had used five downs until he saw highlights on ESPN. But he had to hear about the game constantly later in his career, when he became an assistant coach and worked 10 years for the Kansas City Chiefs and Andy Reid, who was the offensive line coach at Missouri in that game.

“Do you think I heard about it for 10 years?” Bieniemy says with a laugh. “I will say this, it was a great game. It’s one of those games that’ll be talked about for eons. But we’re not gonna give it back.”


ONE THOUSAND, FOUR hundred miles away in Atlanta, No. 18 Georgia Tech prepared to face No. 15 Clemson the week after the Fifth-Down Game. The Jackets began the year unranked, but players felt confident headed into the season after finishing 1989 with wins in seven of their final eight games.

Their defense began the season on a tear, giving up just 31 total points in the first four games. Once again, their defense came up big against Clemson, making a goal-line stand after the Tigers drove down to the 1-yard line. On eight trips inside Georgia Tech territory, Clemson scored just one touchdown. Still, the Tigers had a shot to win, down 21-19.

Chris Gardocki lined up for a 60-yard field goal attempt with a minute left.

“I was 10 feet away from him on the sideline, and I was telling everybody, ‘We’re done,'” Georgia Tech kicker Scott Sisson said.

But Gardocki missed, and Georgia Tech was off to its best start since 1966. That start got even better on the first weekend in November when the Yellow Jackets headed up to Charlottesville to play No. 1 Virginia.

Vandals had gotten into Scott Stadium the night before the game and burned a section of the turf, leaving questions about whether the game could be played. Georgia Tech quarterback Shawn Jones also said that same night, the fire alarm was pulled at 2 or 3 a.m. at the team hotel, forcing players to get up and evacuate.

“The atmosphere was like a championship playoff game,” Jones said.

But the game did not start out that way. Virginia led 28-14 at halftime, having flummoxed the staunch Georgia Tech defense.

“Some of our offensive players, they were asking us, ‘Hey, man, can y’all stop them? Just slow them down because we’re coming,” Swilling said. “And the look on our faces was like, ‘Man, I don’t know. This might be a long day.’ It just so happened that things began to turn offensively.”

Georgia Tech tied the game after two Virginia turnovers, and then it was back-and-forth until the end. Georgia Tech got the ball with 2:30 to go and the score tied at 38. Jones remembers feeling calm as the offense took the field.

He drove Georgia Tech 56 yards in five plays, setting Sisson up for a 37-yard field goal attempt with 7 seconds left. Sisson was affectionately called “Never Missin’ Sisson” by his teammates. Pressure never seemed to get to him. But as he was warming up on the sideline, he overheard punter Scott Aldridge asking the linemen, “How many diamonds do we want in our championship rings?”

“I kept hearing that, and I thought, ‘I don’t have a choice. I’ve got to make this kick,” Sisson says with a laugh. “These guys are designing the ring. So, like, no pressure, right?”

Sisson nailed the kick. The unbeaten season lived on for another weekend.


COLORADO ENTERED THE Orange Bowl No. 1 in both polls at 10-1-1. It was facing Notre Dame in a rematch. Georgia Tech entered the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida, ranked No. 2 at 10-0-1 and facing Nebraska, which Colorado had beaten earlier in the season.

The Buffaloes thought a win over the Irish would seal their championship season in both polls. Georgia Tech, however, felt a win over Nebraska could possibly leap them ahead.

“I didn’t really think that Colorado was better than we were,” Jones said. “So when we went into the game, I thought, ‘If we handle our business, we should be No. 1.’ We didn’t know how it was going to turn out. We just believed it would.”

Georgia Tech handled Nebraska 45-21 to finish a remarkable season without a loss. The team returned to its hotel in Orlando to watch Colorado in the Orange Bowl later that night.

The Buffaloes told themselves they could not lose to the Irish again. Adversity hit early, when Hagan went down with a knee injury. Johnson entered the game and strained his hamstring, but played through it. The game turned into a defensive showcase. Colorado clung to a 10-9 lead with 1:05 remaining.

The Buffaloes were forced to punt. Notre Dame had Raghib “The Rocket” Ismail, the best returner in the nation, waiting deep. Swilling, watching with teammates, turned to them and said, ‘Watch this. Rocket is about ready to take it to the house.'”

Sure enough, Ismail took the punt and turned right, hit a crease and raced in for the touchdown. Georgia Tech players described their hotel vibrating and shaking in celebration.

“The crazy thing about that was, I remember Coach Mac telling our punter to kick it out of bounds,” Hagan says. “It was a bad snap, and he got rushed, so he just kicked it right down the middle. And everybody just looked at each other like, ‘Oh, no.’ When he scored everybody was like, ‘You’ve got to be kidding me. Here we go again.'”

But the wave of emotions tilted in another direction, for all three teams.

There was a flag down on the field.

“We knew it was against them,” Hagan said. “We went from frustrated and hurt to elated all in a matter of two seconds.”

Notre Dame safety Greg Davis was called for clipping. The touchdown came off the board. Colorado ended up holding on to win, capping what it believed would be a No. 1 finish in both polls.

“It was surreal,” Johnson said. “It was the end of a journey that started two years before, and the way it played out was a metaphor for life. There was never a linear path to our championship. There were all kinds of fits and starts, disappointments, high points. As a collective, we got it done. And the party was on.”

The final polls did not come out that night. Early the next morning, the phone rang in Sisson’s hotel room in Orlando. His roommate shoved the phone into his hand.

It was a radio station Sisson had never heard of. First question: Do you think that you deserve the national championship? What Sisson didn’t know when he answered, groggy and half asleep, was there was also a Colorado player on the line.

“I tried to take the middle of the road,” Sisson said. “I said, ‘I don’t know what else we could do. We were undefeated.’ I had no idea that they were setting me up. I don’t remember who it was, I don’t even think I got his name, but the Colorado player says, ‘Oh, we deserve it, and he started ripping into us, like our strength of schedule. I was like, ‘You’ve got to be kidding me. I am not awake. I am not up for this conversation right now.'”

The teams did not find out how the final polls had them ranked until they returned to their respective campuses. Colorado was the AP champion, with 39 first-place votes compared to 20 for Georgia Tech. But in a stunning reversal, Georgia Tech finished No. 1 in the UPI coaches’ poll — by one point. For the first time in UPI coaches’ poll history, the No. 1 team entering its final game did not finish No. 1 after a bowl victory.

Colorado players always suspected Nebraska coach Tom Osborne had changed his vote to Georgia Tech. Osborne admitted for the first time this week that he did in fact do that, telling USA Today he changed his vote for two reasons: the Fifth-Down Game, and the fact that Georgia Tech beat Nebraska more handily than Colorado.

“That was extremely disappointing, that our rival and our fellow conference member did that,” Johnson said. “We went into Lincoln under extremely hostile conditions to win that football game that propelled us to the national championship. I thought for someone who was, by all accounts, an extremely classy man, that was one of the most classless things I’ve experienced.”

Without a unanimous champion, the question over who was better that season rages on. Neither team visited the White House, but Swilling said he and his teammates secretly wished they could have settled the debate with a game in the Rose Garden.

After his college career, Bieniemy was drafted by the San Diego Chargers in 1991. The following year, the Chargers hired Georgia Tech coach Bobby Ross.

“I used to argue with him all the time,” Bieniemy says. “I’m going to say this out loud. I would say, ‘We would have kicked y’all’s ass.'”

Now 35 years later, the two teams finally get their long-anticipated meeting. And it is all thanks to Colorado athletic director Rick George, who was the assistant athletic director for football operations at Colorado in 1990. About a decade ago, George made a call to someone he knew at Georgia Tech and said simply: “We should play a game.”

The series was announced in 2016, and George specifically chose 2025 as the first game in the home-and-home, knowing it was the 35-year anniversary of their championship(s).

“I just thought it would be fun and good for both schools, and it would be a good game that people would have a lot of interest in,” George says. “It’s a great opportunity to showcase what we both accomplished in that year.”

Memories of their shared … uh … championship season are never far from the minds of the players and coaches who experienced it. After all, that was the last national championship each school has won.

But with renewed interest in Colorado and coach Deion Sanders, and rising expectations around Georgia Tech in Year 3 under Brent Key, their game Friday has turned into must-see TV. Their shared history is just a cherry on top.

“This is an opportunity for us to have a lot of get back, a lot of talk, a lot of pride and passion, winning that game,” Hagan said. “Over the years, they’ve said what they’ve said. We’ve said what we’ve said. Now someone’s going to be able to win the game.”

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Coach Prime 2.0: What’s next for Deion and the Buffaloes

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Coach Prime 2.0: What's next for Deion and the Buffaloes

BOULDER, Colo. — The texts and calls went unreturned, so Warren Sapp decided to pay Deion Sanders a visit.

Sapp was concerned about Sanders, his friend, Colorado coaching boss and fellow Pro Football Hall of Famer. In the spring, Sanders had left Colorado for his ranch in Texas, where he had spent months recovering from surgery to remove and reconstruct his bladder after a cancerous tumor was detected. But Sanders, who spends much of his life on camera, did not circulate the extent of his condition, even shielding sons Shedeur and Shilo from the details as they went through the NFL draft.

After several attempts to reach Deion Sanders, Sapp called once more and left a message.

“I said, ‘You call buddy at the gate, because I’ll be at the front this afternoon,’ and the gate was open,'” Sapp told ESPN. “I went to see him. I’m just that guy. I’m a bull in a china shop. I’m going through the front door.”

Sapp, who reached seven Pro Bowls by busting through barriers to grab ball carriers, had a similar, albeit gentler, mission in mind with Sanders.

“I just wanted to see my man and put my hands on him and hug him,” Sapp said. “I just wanted him to tell me, ‘I’m fine, I’ll be there.’ And that’s what he said: ‘I’m good.’ … I’m right back in front of him, and the jokes flowed, the stabs and the jabs. He’s still Prime, all day long.”

Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders is still at Colorado to lead his team, following the most serious health scare in a series of medical challenges. An athletic marvel who played in both the NFL and MLB, Sanders has had 14 surgeries since 2021, including the amputation of two toes because of blood clots.

“I had more surgeries out of the game than I did in the game,” he said.

But the setbacks haven’t removed him from the Buffaloes’ sideline, where he will be Friday night as Colorado opens the season against Georgia Tech at Folsom Field (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Although Sanders is beginning his third year with the Buffaloes, after a five-win improvement last fall, he’s truly kicking off Phase 2 of his time at CU.

Colorado no longer has Sanders’ sons Shedeur and Shilo on the field. The pair of players who headlined the past two Buffaloes seasons, Shedeur and Travis Hunter — the two-way marvel and 2024 Heisman Trophy winner — is gone. So are others from a pass-heavy offense that was fun to watch but also faded in key moments.

So what would Deion 2.0 like to be? A team designed to excel more at the line of scrimmage, display better run-pass balance on offense and transition from finesse to physicality. Players will be coached by a staff perhaps unlike any in college football history, featuring three Pro Football Hall of Famers in Sanders as well as Sapp — the team’s defensive pass rush coordinator after a season as a quality control analyst — and Marshall Faulk, the former NFL MVP who is overseeing the running backs. Faulk was hired in February.

Colorado also is getting a new version of Sanders, who hasn’t lost any charisma but also has a different view on life.

“I’m a better man now than I was two years ago, because of things that God has allowed me to go through …” he said. “So I’m a better man, which makes me a better coach.”

The question now is: Will he lead a better team in 2025?


ON AN AUGUST morning, after a team practice, Sanders bounded into a room and sat down behind a placard that read, “Coach Prime.” On the eve of his 58th birthday, he didn’t look or sound like a man who, months earlier, underwent a major surgery to address a life-threatening condition. The shades, smile and swagger were all there.

“I’m living life right now,” Sanders said. “I’m trying my best to live it to the fullest, considering what transpired.”

At a news conference last month alongside his medical team, Sanders was declared “cured of cancer” by Dr. Janet Kukreja, director of urological oncology at the University of Colorado Cancer Center. But his ordeal caused significant lifestyle changes. Sanders joked that he “truly depends on Depends” and that he and his grandson “see who has the heaviest bag at the end of the night, it’s ridiculous.”

Sanders’ bladder reconstruction causes him to urinate more frequently. A portable toilet has been placed at Colorado’s practice field for Sanders to use and could be on the Buffaloes’ sideline tonight and for future games.

Sanders has maintained a positive outlook, but there’s no downplaying what he went through in the spring.

“He showed me the [postsurgery] pictures,” Sapp said. “We are out of the dark.”

Sanders’ recovery in Texas kept him away from the team for several months. He credited his assistants with maintaining the program during his absence, especially the strength and conditioning staff. Sanders “never had to call 100 times and check on the house,” because he had confidence nothing would veer.

When Sanders rejoined the team in July, he didn’t hold back.

“Every morning, he rises to the occasion,” Faulk told ESPN. “He’s out there at practice. He’s not just a lame-duck coach. Like, he’s out there, he’s fired up, whatever energy he has, he’s giving it. There’s no difference in him before he had the surgery, to now. There’s been no falloff.”

Faulk laughed and shook his head.

“It’s literally amazing,” he continued. “It’s divine, in a sense. People are always listening to him praising the lord and [saying] God is good and this stuff. Then, to see the video, tubes hanging out of him, it’s like, ‘Wait, what?’ It’s crazy because it’s so hard to believe. But if you believe he’s been put on this earth to do something special, as he’s always done, then it starts to make sense.”


SANDERS WILL ALWAYS elicit a range of reactions. But the fact that he’s still at Colorado, without his sons on the field, at nowhere near peak health, is notable. When he took the CU job, many thought without the draw of coaching Shedeur and Shilo, he would be gone by now.

But Deion Sanders’ commitment to Colorado has extended beyond his family history. In March, he received a new five-year, $54 million contract that makes him the highest-paid coach in the Big 12 and among the 10 highest-paid in the sport. The money is notable, but Sanders, a marketing machine outside of his coaching role, already has plenty. The commitment is more significant.

Colorado athletic director Rick George called the negotiation “very easy,” even though the finalizing process took longer than he and others anticipated.

“We were both very thoughtful about what we wanted,” George said. “[Sanders] wanted to know that he was going to be at Colorado for a while. He loves the city, he loves the state, he loves the community, he loves the university. I just think he’s in it for the long haul.”

Sanders had no connection to Colorado before he arrived. His personal ties are much stronger in Florida, Texas and Atlanta, where he played for the Falcons and Braves. Sanders’ name surfaced last year as a potential candidate to coach his former team, the Dallas Cowboys, and could continue to generate buzz for other jobs if Colorado can build on last year’s success.

But for now, Sanders seemingly has set up roots in the Rockies.

“I don’t think that he has a desire to go to the NFL, because I think he has a desire to impact kids, and this is the way that he can do that,” said Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt, a former Colorado quarterback. “If he’s healthy, he’s going to coach. Colorado is perfect for Deion, just like Deion is perfect for Colorado. As much as that program needed him, and they needed him desperately, I think it’s a perfect fit for him. They gave him the keys to the castle.

“He can be completely himself. He can be totally authentic.”

Sanders isn’t the only one who feels as though he belongs at Colorado.


FAULK’S ARRIVAL AND Sapp’s promotion are not for show. They are there to help Sanders usher in a new way for Colorado to play.

The Buffs have made undeniable improvement since 2022, the year before Sanders arrived, when they went 1-11 and were outscored 534-185. Last year’s jump to nine wins was fueled in part by an improved defense under first-year coordinator Robert Livingston, who is back this fall.

But so much of Colorado’s offense seemed to revolve around two players.

“We don’t have his son, the quarterback that can score from anywhere on the field, and the unicorn that we’ve only seen once in a lifetime,” Sapp said, referring to Shedeur Sanders and Hunter.

The hope at Colorado is that its collective strengths can help offset the loss of genuine star power. Shedeur Sanders completed 71.8% of his passes for 7,364 yards with 64 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, while breaking more than 100 CU records. Hunter was a modern-day iron man, leading the FBS in snaps played in both 2023 and 2024, while recording seven interceptions, 16 pass breakups and 153 receptions for 1,989 yards and 20 touchdowns in a Buffaloes uniform.

Their departures reinforce Colorado’s need to win through more traditional means. Over the past two seasons, the Buffaloes rank last in the FBS in rushing at 67 yards per game — 19 yards fewer than the next lowest team (Hawai’i). They’re also 132nd in both rushing attempts per game (28) and runs of 10 yards or more (66). Despite record-setting passing by Shedeur Sanders, Colorado also allowed 99 sacks since 2023, most in the FBS.

Colorado’s approach wasn’t sustainable, especially without Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Enter Sapp and Faulk.

“Nobody was pulling me off my couch but Deion,” Sapp said.

Faulk had never played with Sanders, but the two crossed paths while working as analysts at NFL Network, where Sapp also worked after retirement. Since retiring in 2007, Faulk had been approached by both NFL and college teams about coaching.

“I say this in the nicest way: I’m not a regular dude,” Faulk said. “If I’m going to work for somebody, or coach under somebody, it’s got to be somebody.”

During Sanders’ tenure, he has increased the NFL flavor of his staff. Former NFL head coach Pat Shurmur directs the offense, while former NFL players work with position groups such as cornerbacks (Kevin Mathis) and offensive line (Andre Gurode and George Hegamin). Byron Leftwich, a former NFL quarterback and offensive coordinator, joined the staff this summer. But the three gold jackets in the building speak from a platform that few college coaches can. Sanders, Sapp and Faulk have combined for four Super Bowl rings, five NFL offensive or defensive player of the year awards, 23 Pro Bowl selections and 13 first-team All-Pro selections.

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2:08

Josh Pate: Being competitive means success for Deion Sanders

Josh Pate and Joey Galloway discuss what they think a successful 2025 season of football will look like for Deion Sanders and Colorado.

Faulk’s presence, and Hall of Fame credentials, are meant to boost the running back room. For Faulk, it starts with teaching the position. He will ask Colorado’s running backs to draw their favorite play on the whiteboard. Then, he asks them to draw the defensive set best equipped to stop the play and one where the play can be most effective.

“It hits as a player, just understanding, like, coming from him, what he’s done, he’s proof,” Buffaloes running back DeKalon Taylor said. “He’s not just telling us something that he hasn’t done himself. He helps make the game easier, helps slow it down, helps us truly understand it.”

In his role, Sapp is taking a similar approach, trying to teach the innate tenacity he played with to Buffs defensive linemen.

“I play 3-tech, the same as he played,” defensive tackle Amari McNeill said. “I love having Coach Sapp around, every day, on my side. He says, ‘Don’t wait for no action. Meet the action.’ It helps me play faster.”

Although the defense undoubtedly made strides in 2024, Colorado still ranks 117th in runs allowed of 10 yards or more, and 105th in third-down conversions against during Sanders’ tenure. The pass rush has generally been a strength, especially with Livingston’s aggressive scheme, but Colorado also gave up too many conversions.

“He wants to run it,” Sapp said, nodding at Faulk, “I want to stop the run and earn the right to rush. I believe in dominating the LOS, the line of scrimmage. I live that way. That’s the way the game’s always going to be played.”


DEION SANDERS SUBSCRIBES to the same belief. The difference now is Colorado thinks it has the roster to achieve that vision.

“The next phase is: We’re going to win differently, but we’re going to win,” Sanders said. “I don’t know if it’s going to be the Hail Marys at the end of the game, but it’s going to be hell during the game, because we want to be physical, and we want to run the heck out of the football.”

Sanders was referencing the Hail Mary pass from Shedeur Sanders to LaJohntay Wester at the end of regulation against Baylor, which sent the game into overtime that the Buffaloes eventually won 38-31. The Baylor game was one of just two that Colorado won by single digits, but the team hopes depth in areas such as offensive line and running back will lead to further dominance.

The offensive line was the weakest position group when Sanders arrived, but the group returns several experienced players, led by Jordan Seaton, who became the Colorado freshman to make 13 starts last fall. Colorado also added notable line transfers such as Xavier Hill, a first-team All-AAC selection at Memphis, and Zy Crisler, who started 28 games at Illinois.

“It’s kind of hard to fool the defense when you’re passing the ball so many times a game,” Seaton said. “So this year we’re going to balance it out and keep everybody guessing.”

Colorado’s emphasis on offensive line play shows not just in the number of players but coaches. After Phil Loadholt left for Mississippi State, Deion Sanders appointed three offensive line coaches: Gurode, Hegamin and Gunnar White, who leads the room.

“It’s a bunch of high expectations,” Hill said. “Everybody wants to play, everybody wants to be great. We don’t just have five, we have 10.”

Colorado also thinks it has capable options at running back in returnees Dallan Hayden and Micah Welch, and transfers such as Taylor (Incarnate Word) and Simeon Price (Coastal Carolina). Sanders said “at least” three backs will be in the rotation.

“I believe that they’re going to be far better at the line of scrimmage than they have been over the last two years,” Klatt said. “This is a program that is foundationally stronger than it was two years ago, foundationally stronger than it was last year, and we’ll just see what they can do in one-possession games.”

For Deion Sanders, Phase 2 at Colorado will bring adjustments. He has downplayed the shift at times, saying his job is easier without having to balance being a father and a coach.

But he also entered coaching because of his sons, and recently acknowledged it’s “not easy” without them.

“He’s building a legacy here,” Seaton said. “He started with his kids and he got to finish with them, but this journey, we’re his new kids now, so he’s going to finish with us.”

After a difficult spring and summer, Sanders looks forward to beginning a new chapter at Colorado.

“First, it was the challenge of coming to this level. Could we change the game? We did,” he said. “Then, can you consistently do it with the players you have? Can you win? We did. Now it’s: Can you do it without Travis and Shedeur? It’s always going to be a challenge, I don’t mind that. I stand up to those.”

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College football hot seats: Brace yourselves for potential blue-blood turnover

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College football hot seats: Brace yourselves for potential blue-blood turnover

The college football job market took an expected turn last year.

The headwinds of financial uncertainty, combined with a record number of jobs turning over in 2023, led to a quieter year on the coaching carousel, especially at high-end schools.

Last offseason, there was a dip in head coaching changes at FBS football, with 30 total. The year before, a record 32 jobs turned over, per NCAA statistics.

Notably last offseason, no jobs turned over in the SEC and there was just one in the Big Ten (Purdue). Only West Virginia and UCF turned over in the Big 12, and the ACC had three changes (North Carolina, Wake Forest and Stanford).

None of those jobs would remotely qualify as blue bloods, which has the industry bracing for what could end up being a big year for high-end coaching turnover. The carousel rests for only so long.

That has led to a fascinating tension that will serve as the backdrop for this year’s edition: In an era when a vast majority of schools are scrambling for resources and revenue, are schools ready to pay big buyout money to part with their coaches? For big movement this year, there will have to be one or two big buyouts.

“The signs are that it’s going to be a pretty big year,” said an industry source. “There’s 15 to 20 schools in flux, and it was really light last year. That combination lends itself to a big year.

“But the question is whether 6-6 is worth making a change when you need to find 20-plus million? I think the trend is going to schools looking not to make the decision.”

There’s a counter to that perspective, and it’s a peek at the college basketball market from last year. Places like Indiana, Villanova, Iowa, Minnesota, NC State, Texas and Utah all paid sizable buyouts to kick-start new eras.

“I think people are past the rev share issues,” another industry source said. “They were stalled out last year in the football carousel, but they didn’t have any trouble getting going in the basketball carousel.”

Jimbo Fisher’s football buyout from Texas A&M in 2023 was $76.8 million, which included $19.2 million within 60 days and $7.2 million annually with no offset or mitigation. That’s the Secretariat-at-the-Belmont runaway winner for the biggest in the history of the sport.

The second-biggest public buyout belongs to Auburn, which fired Gus Malzahn in 2020 and owed him $21.7 million.

If this is indeed going to be an active coaching carousel among high-end jobs, the Malzahn number will need to be toppled. And the Fisher buyout has a chance to be as well.

Ultimately, the case for an active coaching carousel starts with big-name jobs that are in flux, the so-called market moves that ripple through the industry. A majority of those potential openings — although not all — would involve heavy lifting from a buyout perspective.

One source pointed out that schools in the SEC and Big Ten will have new line items that could make a big buyout more tenable, as there’s an influx of CFP money coming.

One school told ESPN that it has budgeted an additional $8 million additional for bowl revenue for the new CFP starting in 2026. (The specific amount is tricky, as there’s a flurry of variables that make a finite number tough to pin down.)

That makes the particulars of the buyouts important. How much money is up front? Is there offset and mitigation?

Here’s a look at the jobs with the buyout tension that could set the market, as well as other jobs worth monitoring across each conference.

Jump to a topic:
Big buyouts | Other Big Ten
Other SEC | Other ACC
Big 12 | Group of 5

Big buyouts

USC | Lincoln Riley (26-14 entering Year 4)

Buyout: More than $80 million

Nearly everything has changed since Lincoln Riley came to Los Angeles. Most notably, the results. After an 11-3 debut in 2022, he has gone 8-5 and 7-6 with losses along the way to Maryland, Minnesota and UCLA. The splash of the hire has worn off amid close losses, media clashes and modest expectations for 2025.

His winning percentage with the Trojans is 65.0%, which is lower than Clay Helton’s USC winning percentage (65.7) when he was fired. It’s also nearly 20% worse than his Oklahoma win percentage (84.6).

Many of the core people Riley brought with him from Oklahoma have been removed or seen their roles diminish, with the firing of strength coach Bennie Wylie and the hiring of new general manager Chad Bowden recent examples of significant personnel changes around him.

Athletic director Jennifer Cohen didn’t hire Riley. She also has made clear that there are championship expectations. She has invested accordingly, including a new football performance center that’s under construction and plenty of staff infrastructure and NIL financial gunpowder.

Although firing Riley would generate eye-popping financial headlines, the understanding is that there is offset and mitigation on his deal. That would diminish the number owed him over time. He’s too gifted a playcaller and offensive mind to sit out through the length of his deal, which was originally a 10-year contract that began in the 2023 season. (His buyout to leave is minimal if he chose to go elsewhere, but leaving that much guaranteed money behind would be hard.)

Without high-end results, there will continue to be uncertainty. USC will be favored in its first four games, and then it enters one of the most difficult stretches on any schedule this year — at Illinois, Michigan, at Notre Dame and at Nebraska. (There’s a bye between the trips to South Bend and Lincoln.)

That means by Nov. 1, we’ll get a sense of what Riley truly has built in his fourth season and where his tenure is headed.

The best news for Riley is there’s hope on the way, as USC has the No. 1 recruiting class for 2026, which includes 19 ESPN 300 prospects.


Florida State | Mike Norvell (33-27 entering Year 6)

Buyout: $58 million

This was unthinkable two years ago, when FSU went undefeated in the regular season and won the ACC. But since quarterback Jordan Travis’ injury and the subsequent College Football Playoff snub following 2023, everything has gone wrong for FSU.

In the wake of FSU’s 2-10 season last year, Norvell has overhauled the coaching staff, given up playcalling and brought in new coordinators. Florida State can’t really afford to fire him, but it also can’t afford to trudge through another miserable season like last year.

Norvell also agreed to a restructured new deal, which includes donating $4.5 million of his salary to the program in 2025. Effectively, Norvell took a performance pay cut. (He can earn that back, too, as included in the new deal is a $750,000 bonus for nine wins.)

The 2024 implosion came at a time when Florida State had actively — and awkwardly — been lobbying to find a new conference home. That bluster has died down, and the financials of leaving the ACC are clear. FSU’s need to get back to winning is rooted in those grander ambitions.

What’s important here if FSU does have to move on is that Norvell’s remaining money is subject to offset and mitigation. He’d likely be a strong candidate to coach again, which would blunt some of the financial pain.

Norvell went 23-4 in 2022 and 2023, which built up some grace. Here’s what no one knows: What is enough progress for 2025?


Oklahoma | Brent Venables (22-17 entering Year 4)

Buyout: $36.1 million

Oklahoma extended Venables through the 2029 season in the summer of 2024. The Sooners subsequently went 6-7 in their SEC debut, which led to some scrutiny of that deal.

Venables is popular in Norman, dating back to his time as an assistant. Like many defensive head coaches early in his career, he made a misstep at offensive coordinator that quelled the momentum from OU’s 10-2 season in its Big 12 finale in 2023.

There’s an athletic director shift coming at Oklahoma, with Joe Castiglione retiring. There also has been new blood in the football program, with general manager Jim Nagy coming in this offseason from the Senior Bowl.

This season is a fascinating litmus test for OU’s viability in the SEC. The Sooners have fortified the roster with a significant upgrade at quarterback (John Mateer), expect better health at wide receiver and have made holistic upgrades.

But the reality is that most teams are going to lose half their games in the SEC, and it’d be a poor time for Venables to have a bad year. The Sooners also play seven teams ranked in the preseason Top 25, and that doesn’t include Missouri or Auburn.


Wisconsin | Luke Fickell (13-13 entering Year 3)

Buyout: More than $25 million

Wisconsin ended last year with five straight losses and missed a bowl for the first time since 2001.

Wisconsin extended Fickell after last year, but that didn’t impact his buyout. There’s optimism for a change of trajectory, as Wisconsin is undergoing a schematic shift back to the school’s identity roots as a running offense. It will be a welcomed change after the failed Air Raid experiment.

The factor that has this job coming up in industry circles is Wisconsin’s schedule, which might make it difficult for the Badgers to take a significant step forward. They play at Alabama, at Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, at Oregon, Washington, at Indiana, Illinois and at Minnesota.

Wisconsin could be a better team but have a similar record. The institutional history, Fickell’s general track record and buyout expense suggest patience is likely.

Other jobs worth monitoring

Big Ten

Maryland: Mike Locksley’s strong run at Maryland took a hairpin turn last year, as the Terps went 4-8, 1-8 in Big Ten play and Locksley admitted he lost the locker room. There’s a lot of goodwill from Locksley’s three consecutive bowl games, which hadn’t happened since Ralph Friedgen’s tenure in 2008. But there’s also a new athletic director, Jim Smith, and an expectation to return to winning. Maryland is heavily favored in its three games to open the year (FAU, Northern Illinois and Towson), which could quiet things. Locksley would be owed $13.4 million if fired, a considerable amount for Maryland. He’d also have 50% of that due in 60 days, a sizable check for a university not flush with cash.


SEC

Auburn: Hugh Freeze faces a classic win-or-else season at Auburn. The Tigers have strong talent upgrades from both the portal and recruiting. But Auburn is not a traditionally patient place, so Freeze’s 11-14 record there needs to improve quickly. He’d be owed just under $15.4 million, which is expensive but not something Auburn would flinch at if there are modest results again. Don’t expect him to be around if Auburn has another losing season.

Arkansas: The goofiest buyout in college sports looms over any potential decision on Sam Pittman. If he’s .500 or above since 2021 — he enters the year 27-24 in that time frame — Arkansas would have to pay him nearly $9.8 million. To keep the buyout at this higher level, he’d need to win five games. If Pittman goes 4-8, the number would be nearly $6.9 million. Credit Pittman, who revived Arkansas from the depths of Chad Morris’ era and keeps on surviving. If he’s above four wins, Arkansas would face scrutiny for issuing such a bizarre contract and the extra money it’d cost the program to fire him.

Florida: The temperature on Billy Napier has cooled considerably, and the Gators have a top-flight quarterback and great expectations again. He’s 19-19 through three seasons, and his buyout remains eye-popping at $20.4 million. (There’s no offset or mitigation on the deal.) Athletic director Scott Stricklin gave Napier a midseason vote of confidence last year by announcing he’d return, and Florida responded with a strong finishing kick by winning four straight to close the year. Stricklin clearly has his back. And per an ESPN source, Stricklin has three additional years added to his contract, which now runs through 2030. That bodes well for Napier, as they are clearly aligned.


ACC

Stanford: General manager Andrew Luck’s first significant hire looms. With interim coach Frank Reich clear that he’s on The Farm short term, Luck needs to decide whether he wants someone from the college ranks or the NFL. What’s unique about this job is that the hire will be made through the shared prism of how Luck sees the identity of the program, not necessarily just a coach coming in and bringing the identity.

Virginia Tech: It’s a classic prove-it year for Brent Pry, who has two years remaining on his original contract. He’d be owed $6.2 million if fired on Dec. 1. He’s 16-21 over three years and 1-12 in one-score games, and Tech’s ambitions are clearly greater than that. Considerable improvement is needed, or Tech will hit reset as the administration appears motivated by the fear of getting left behind in the next iteration of the collegiate landscape. Athletic director Whit Babcock has hired Pry and Justin Fuente, which would mean his future could be in flux if a change comes here. ADs don’t often get to hire three coaches.

Virginia: There was a discernable uptick in investment and aggression by Virginia in the portal this offseason. That’s a sign the pressure is ratcheted up on Tony Elliott, who is 11-23 through three seasons. He entered a job with arguably the worst facilities in power conference football. He also dealt with unspeakable tragedy: the murder of three players in a campus shooting. UVA showed signs of progress last year with five wins, and that needs to continue. Elliott is owed more than $11.1 million if fired on Dec. 1, and UVA is more likely to need to direct that to the roster than a payout.

Cal: Can Cal do better than Justin Wilcox? It’s unlikely, as he has led the team to four bowls since taking over in 2017. Cal has no athletic director, landed in an awkward geographic league and is working to financially catch up to the rest of the sport. Wilcox would be owed $10.9 million if he’s fired, which would seemingly be too rich for Cal to handle. But with so much change afoot, there’s an industry expectation that something could happen here, as Wilcox could also have other suitors.


Big 12

Oklahoma State: The school forced Mike Gundy into a reduced salary and buyout. Those are fluorescent signs of a school preparing to move on, although the buyout remains significant at $15 million. It would be a seminal moment for a school to fire a coach who has more than 100 more wins than the next most successful coach in school history. Gundy is 169-88, but the program fell off a cliff last year at 3-9. The roster doesn’t offer much optimism for drastic improvement, and essentially the entire coaching staff is new. Gundy has done some of his best work with low expectations, and that’s what OSU has in 2025.

Arizona: Arizona’s dip from 10-3 in Jedd Fisch’s first year to 4-8 in Brent Brennan’s first season has led to scrutiny. Also, there has been a new athletic director brought in since Brennan was hired. The buyout price is steep at $10.6 million, but it’s something Arizona is expected to consider if there’s no improvement. It doesn’t help matters for Brennan that rival Arizona State burst into the CFP in Kenny Dillingham’s second year.

Cincinnati: There have been growing pains entering the Big 12 for the Bearcats, who are 4-14 in league play in the first two years. There’s an expectation for continued improvement in Scott Satterfield’s third year, as he went 3-9 in Year 1 and jumped to 5-7 last year. The Bearcats lost their final five games last year. The buyout tab is nearly $12 million, which is a lot for a school that moved its opener against Nebraska to Kansas City for financial reasons.

Baylor: The temperature on Dave Aranda’s seat has cooled exponentially compared with the past two seasons. He snapped a skid of two losing seasons by going 8-5 last year and 6-3 in the Big 12. A change would require a precipitous downturn, as Aranda is beloved in Waco. There’s an unforgiving schedule, however, that opens with Auburn and a trip to SMU. His buyout is in the $12 million range, and it’s unlikely to be tested.


Group of 5

American: The American might have been the biggest surprise in the 2024 coaching carousel, with FAU, Tulsa and Charlotte all firing coaches after just two seasons. Temple, Rice and East Carolina also fired their coaches. Oddly, the worries over revenue share spending didn’t intimidate these schools from making moves.

There’s really only one job squarely in the crosshairs, and that’s Trent Dilfer at UAB, who is 7-17 in two seasons. He’d be owed nearly $2.5 million if dismissed. UAB has struggled to translate its strong run in Conference USA to the American since joining in 2023.

Conference USA: This also projects to be a quieter year in Conference USA, with only Louisiana Tech having a coach potentially in flux. Sonny Cumbie went 5-8 last year after opening with back-to-back 3-9 seasons. He’ll need continued improvement to stick around for that school’s eventual transition to the Sun Belt. He’d be owed nearly $875,000 if let go, as 2026 is the last year of his deal.

MAC: There’s already one MAC job open, after Kenni Burns’ firing this spring at Kent State. There are significant financial challenges both there and at Akron, which also could be in flux with Joe Moorhead entering Year 4 at 8-28. (He’d be owed about $650,000 if fired, which is significant.) There’s still a market for Moorhead as a college offensive coordinator, which could be the pivot if the Zips don’t get moving. (Perhaps the NFL, too.) Overall, this looks like a quieter year in the MAC.

Mountain West: The lack of a contract extension for Jay Norvell at Colorado State is a smoke signal that a decision is coming. He has just one year left on his deal and would be owed $1.5 million if fired before Dec. 1. He also wouldn’t have to pay any money to go elsewhere. Norvell has an administration that didn’t hire him and, despite solid improvement, there will be speculation over his future until something changes contractually. Colorado State went 8-5 last year and 6-1 in the Mountain West. Norvell is 16-21 in his three years.

Sun Belt: Two coaches will be watched closely here. Tim Beck is 14-12 at Coastal Carolina over two seasons, having reached bowls in each of them. He had the misfortune of replacing Jamey Chadwell, who averaged more than 10 wins over his final three seasons. Beck would be owed $1.5 million if Coastal fired him, and Coastal has both a new athletic director and president. Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion is 20-30 overall and still in search of his first winning season there. He has just one year remaining on his deal after this one, a sign that a decision on his future one way or the other is imminent. He’d be owed $600,000 if fired.

Pac-12: None.

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