Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee show why college football still runs through the SEC
There are a few inarguable truths in life that all of us should abide by. Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Never text your ex after 2 a.m. And never throw darts without an appropriate amount of glass in your house.
OK, that last one’s a little fuzzy, but we assume Jimbo Fisher knew what he was talking about.
But more than any of those things, the one bit of advice Fisher failed to adhere to was this: You come at the king, you best not miss.
In the five months since Fisher’s incendiary news conference in which he called Saban a false god, suggested Alabama cheated with impunity, said he wasn’t worried about a confrontation with his former boss, and, yes, mangled the advice about stones and glass houses, there was almost a palpable sense that, regardless of what happened in the season’s first five weeks, this would be a grudge match for the ages.
Oh, it was.
Both teams went to battle without their starting quarterbacks. Of course, one of those QBs was the Heisman Trophy winner, but like Texas A&M‘s NIL deals, it’s best not to dwell on details.
For the Aggies, Haynes King actually played well, despite being tormented by a ferocious Alabama defensive front. Will Anderson Jr. danced past the A&M O-line like a guy who had too many Mountain Dews trying to find the bathroom at a crowded cocktail party, racking up eight QB hurries on the night. Still, King threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns and was poised to deliver the game winner until — well, it’s hard to describe what happened on the final play of the game. “Despicable” was a word Fisher used back in May, and it seems fitting now.
0:22
No. 1 Alabama survives a last-second scare from Texas A&M to win a thriller in Tuscaloosa 24-20.
For the Tide, Jahmyr Gibbs led a rushing attack that racked up 288 yards on the night. In Young’s place, Jalen Milroe completed just 12 passes, but three went for touchdowns. Alabama turned the ball over four times and missed two field goals, but A&M could only do so much with the advantages. Fisher, of course, is no god. (Though you should probably go look into his “deal.”)
In the end, there was nothing pretty about Alabama’s 24-20 win. But a cleanly played game would’ve been a disappointment. This one played out exactly as it was supposed to, a mirror image of the battle of words between the two coaches — a frenetic, ugly, ill-advised slugfest in which both teams did as much damage to themselves as they did to their opponent.
It was that kind of week in the SEC.
Georgia thumped Auburn, a much-needed sense of dominion against a team the Bulldogs were supposed to beat handily. Still, Georgia has now gone three straight games — and 117 consecutive throws — without a touchdown pass. Will the next challenge be as accommodating as Auburn? And seriously, is Auburn just keeping Bryan Harsin around for fun now? The man deserves a more compassionate end.
Ole Miss fell behind early against Vanderbilt, then turned on the afterburners and roared to a 52-28 win. The Rebels are 6-0 with three winnable games in front of them before a date with Alabama.
Tennessee, too, remains undefeated, annihilating LSU 40-13 for the Volunteers’ first win in Baton Rouge since Brian Kelly’s ancestors first landed on the swampy shores of Louisiana to set up a homestead so many years ago.
It was a Saturday in which the SEC offered a reminder that it is still the chief power broker in the country, with the Tide, Bulldogs, Rebels and Vols now accounting for more than a quarter of the country’s remaining undefeated teams. (And Shane Beamer offered his own reminder with dancing and cheap sunglasses).
Climate check ? pic.twitter.com/z9yv0lY14e
— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) October 9, 2022
And yet Ohio State demolished Michigan State and has a strong case for the title of the nation’s best team. At the very least, they’ve probably made Spartans boosters a bit concerned about that $95 million investment they made in Mel Tucker. Ohio State has beaten him twice since that deal was announced, by a combined score of 105-27.
And the Red River… what are we calling it now? Rivalry? Revue? Rigmarole? They’re all good. Regardless, Texas rolled Oklahoma 49-0. The Sooners have now lost three in a row for the first time since 1998. Their last two losses have come by a combined 80 points — or three points more than the 10 losses the team had between 2017 and 2021. Quinn Ewers returned for Texas and turned the state fair into Oklahoma’s Dustbowl 2.0, a cloud of misery that John Steinbeck would’ve found too depressing for publication. Depressing, too, is the thought of what might’ve become of this season for the Longhorns had Ewers not gotten hurt in the first half of their game against Alabama.
Instead, we leave Week 6 largely as we entered it. Teams ranked in the top 10 went 9-0. The status quo remains.
The narcissist in us won’t allow us to believe bigger surprises await. Thank goodness Fisher is here to remind us we’re not gods.
TCU-Kansas lives up to the hype
There’s a theory that suggests computing technology increases exponentially, and if that’s true, then there will come a time when artificial intelligence far surpasses human intelligence. And if that’s true, then logic might follow that some society has already reached that point, and as such, there is a hypothesis that our entire existence now is simply a computer simulation.
Until this week, simulation theory existed largely on the fringes of metaphysics, and most everyone agreed it could never be proved.
But then, on the same Saturday as the Red River game and the long-awaited showdown between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban, the center of the college football world was instead in Lawrence, Kansas. That, friends, is an inarguable glitch in the matrix.
Imagine back in May, when Jimbo Fisher sent an army of private detectives to sift through Nick Saban’s trash, that Texas A&M- Alabama would be but an afterthought because Kansas was 5-0.
Imagine, back when Oklahoma fans welcomed home prodigal son Brent Venables with thunderous approval, that the Sooners’ showdown against Texas would be a lopsided embarrassment, with Oklahoma being shut out 49-0.
Imagine, when Texas landed Ewers and A&M signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, and Houston was hailed as a potential playoff party crasher, that instead, the unquestioned top team in Texas would be TCU.
Perhaps the truly wild part of this entirely impossible scenario is that Saturday’s TCU-Kansas showdown wasn’t overhyped. If anything, we massively underestimated how much drama the Frogs and Jayhawks could muster.
TCU’s onetime backup QB now looks like a Heisman contender. Max Duggan threw for 308 yards, ran for 55 more and accounted for four touchdowns. Every time Kansas steadied itself and got off the mat in the second half, Duggan delivered another haymaker, leading TCU to touchdowns on four of its last five drives of the game.
Meanwhile, the fairy-tale season at Kansas played out — well, like a fairy tale on Saturday, when the Jayhawks turned to a magic Bean to salvage their fading fortunes. Jalon Daniels left the game near the end of the first half with an injured shoulder, turning over the reins to Jason Bean, who threw four second-half TD passes, leading the Jayhawks back from the brink of the abyss again and again down the stretch.
The second half of Saturday’s game saw Kansas erase leads of 10-3, 17-10, 24-17 and 31-24, and only a failed fourth-down conversion with 37 seconds remaining kept the Jayhawks from a chance to tie it at 38, too.
The game was decided not by inches but by margins undetectable by the world’s most powerful microscopes, as Derius Davis tiptoed the sideline for TCU and Quentin Skinner tapped his knee in the back of the end zone on a late score to keep Kansas alive.
0:55
Quentin Skiner does a great job as he comes down inbounds for the Kansas’ touchdown as they tie it 31-31.
It was a battle rife with cinematic drama that not only warranted the title of Week 6’s best matchup but will undoubtedly be in the conversation as one of the most entertaining games of the 2022 season.
And it happened at Kansas.
And yes, Kansas’ record is no longer unblemished. Reality — if that’s what we’re living in — had to return eventually. And no, TCU isn’t likely to overshadow college football’s behemoths for long. And yes, had Ewers been healthy all season, it might well be the Longhorns who are the talk of the sport now.
But for one magical afternoon, nothing in college football mattered as much or offered more drama than the happenings in Kansas. As the great Jasper Beardsley said, “What a time to be alive.”
That is, if we’re not all actually in a simulation.
Big wins out west
Don’t sleep on the Pac-12. OK, sleep a little on the Pac-12. The games are on late. You’ve got things to do on Sunday, and Home Depot opens early. Still, be sure to at least check the scores and highlights, because for the first time since the Hoover administration, the Pac-12 has some serious playoff juice.
UCLA staked its claim to contender status with an incredibly impressive 43-32 win over Utah. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was 1 yard shy of throwing for 300, and Zach Charbonnet was 2 short of rushing for 200, and the defense came up with one critical play after another.
The Bruins’ first four wins were far from emphatic, but the past two weeks, they’ve largely had their way with Washington and Utah, making a serious statement that Chip Kelly’s past decade was like that season of “Dallas” that turned out to all be a dream. Seriously, Kelly supposedly coached the San Francisco 49ers for a year. There’s no way that really happened.
0:21
UCLA gets on the board first as Dorian Thompson-Robinson extends into the end zone for a touchdown.
Meanwhile, USC avoided a potential trap game against Washington State, and we think it’s time the pundits gave credit where it’s due. Yes, Lincoln Riley has injected new life into the Trojans’ program, and sure Caleb Williams, Mario Williams and Jordan Addison have been excellent. But the real hero of this team? Travis Dye‘s mustache. Not since Tom Selleck has L.A. had such fantastic facial hair.
Two weeks ago, it looked like Washington could be a real playoff contender, too, but Saturday proved an absolute embarrassment in a 45-38 loss to Arizona State. Xazavian Valladay ran for 111 yards, caught four passes, scored twice and accounted for an all-time record in Scrabble points as the Sun Devils suddenly look frisky now that Herm Edwards is out.
And if Week 1 convinced us to give up on Oregon, the Ducks keep trying to remind us that anyone can lose to Georgia by 46. Oh, sure, not Auburn or Missouri or Kent State … but, you know, good teams. The Ducks dominated Arizona and have topped 40 in five straight games. And are we ready to love Bo Nix again? He’s like that boyfriend you’ve decided to dump a dozen different times, but then he shows up with In-N-Out burgers at 2 a.m. and you figure, “Ah, another week can’t hurt.”
This list of genuine playoff contenders isn’t long, but as the season approaches its midpoint, the Pac-12 has three teams that fit the bill. That’s three more than it’s had at this time of year in a long time.
Pokes keep winning
Oklahoma State is the No. 7 team in the country, is 5-0 for the second straight season and has an impressive win over Baylor in its back pocket. But it might still be fair to ask a pretty basic question: Are the Pokes all that good?
Yes, there have been dominant stretches — the fourth quarter vs. Arizona State, the first half against Baylor, Spencer Sanders‘ take-no-prisoners late touchdown drive Saturday — but those always seem to be paired with other stretches in which Oklahoma State can’t get out of its own way.
That was largely the story Saturday against Texas Tech, a team that has also spent much of the season looking like Nic Cage’s IMDB page — beat Texas one week, make “The Wicker Man” the next — and once again, it’s not entirely clear who played well.
Texas Tech started its third different QB of the season, and Behren Morton threw for 379 yards. Oklahoma State relied on the veteran Sanders, who accounted for three total TDs despite completing less than half his passes.
Oklahoma State went up 17-7. Texas Tech went to the half with a 24-20 lead. The Cowboys scored. The Red Raiders scored. The Pokes led by just 3 entering the final quarter, then a game filled with offensive fireworks slowed to a crawl. One drive is “Leaving Las Vegas,” and the next is “Bangkok Dangerous.”
Of all the teams to start 5-0 this season, only Coastal Carolina allowed more points in the process than Oklahoma State. Sanders is completing just 56% of his throws against Power 5 foes. And yet, for a few drives every game, Oklahoma State looks like it’s poised for another “Raising Arizona.” The Cowboys are a paradox wrapped in an enigma topped with a mullet.
Abanikanda runs wild
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi promised his team would run more this season after saying goodbye to QB Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Mission accomplished.
Pitt fed tailback Izzy Abanikanda 36 times during Saturday’s 45-29 win over Virginia Tech, and he made every one of them count.
Abanikanda rushed for 320 yards and six touchdowns in the win, becoming the first Power 5 or BCS conference back to go for more than 300 yards and six scores since Ricky Williams did it in 1998. After the game, Mike Ditka immediately texted Saints management and suggested trading as many picks as it takes to get Abanikanda in the 2023 draft.
2:31
Israel Abanikanda can’t be stopped as he rushes for six touchdowns, tying the Panthers’ school record set back in 1910.
For Pitt, Abanikanda’s big day was a salve for an offense that struggled mightily last week against Georgia Tech. For Virginia Tech, the Hokies are off to their worst start (2-4) since 1991.
But the story, of course, was Abanikanda, who now leads the country with 13 scrimmage TDs. His 320 yards were the fourth most in a game in ACC history, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, and he passed Tony Dorsett for the most in a single game in Pitt history.
Now, if some newspaper doesn’t run with the headline “Pitt’s Abanikanda don’t want none unless it’s touchdowns, hon” on Sunday, then journalism is officially dead.
Heisman Five
Bryce Young missed Week 6. Jalon Daniels left early. A half-dozen other big-name QBs also dealt with injuries that cost them some or all of Saturday’s action, meaning it was a great time to get some new names into the Heisman mix.
1. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud threw six TDs to Ohio State receivers and, because he’s a man of the people, one to Michigan State, too. It was Stroud’s fourth game this season throwing four TDs or more. Our working theory is that he’s been catching up on “House of the Dragon” on his sideline iPad, and so he’s in a rush to score on every possession to get back to his stories.
2. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
Hooker led Tennessee to another dominant win, throwing for 239 yards and two touchdowns without a pick. Since Hooker’s first start for the Vols in Week 3 of last season, he’s 12-5 with 41 passing touchdowns (20 more than his former team, Virginia Tech, has in that span) while throwing just two interceptions (19 fewer than SEC East rival Florida).
3. USC QB Caleb Williams
Williams struggled at times against Washington State’s defense, completing just over half his throws for just 188 yards. But he tossed two TDs, converted several big third downs and kept USC undefeated. But if any Oklahoma fans are reading this, just know that he’s not actually happy and he keeps all your letters in a lavender-scented box next to his bed.
4. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
In just his 304th start (note: that’s a rough estimate), Thompson-Robinson set the UCLA record for career touchdown passes in Saturday’s impressive win over Utah. In all, he accounted for five TDs on Saturday, averaged 13 yards per throw, and utterly flummoxed one of the Pac-12’s best defenses.
5. Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Alabama LB Will Anderson Jr.
OK, we’re probably not permanently dropping Young from our Heisman contenders, but for this week at least, let’s recognize how good two of his teammates were. Gibbs carried 21 times for 154 yards, and since Young went down with a shoulder injury last week, Gibbs has 328 rushing yards, is averaging better than 10 yards per carry and has scored twice. Meanwhile, Anderson racked up eight QB hurries and spent enough time in A&M’s backfield that Jimbo Fisher assumed his NIL collective owed Gibbs money.
The most college football thing to happen in Week 6
Jackson State ran its record to 5-0 as Shedeur Sanders threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-12 win over Alabama State. That puts Deion Sanders’ team at 3-0 in conference play, but he has a big, fat zero when it comes to true SWAC-ness.
Alabama State coach Eddie Robinson — no relation to the longtime Grambling coach — was less than pleased with Coach Prime’s apparent prima donna attitude before the game.
“He ain’t SWAC. I’m SWAC.”? Alabama State HC Eddie Robinson about Jackson State HC Deion Sanders #bamastate #swac #swarmas1 #theeibelieve pic.twitter.com/sJuZjnSXdB
— The Wild Card (@wildcard2k) October 8, 2022
Robinson said he “prays [Sanders] doesn’t get a Power 5 job” so they can play again next season and, in theory, exact some revenge.
You hear that, Auburn? No hiring Deion. We need more SWAC grudge matches.
The other most college football thing to happen
Give Florida State credit. Even after five of the most miserable seasons in school history, the Seminoles keep finding new ways to inflict pain on their fanbase.
On Saturday, the latest blow came from the punter because it’s not enough to simply throw salt in FSU fans’ wounds. The Noles needed to dump a jug of cheap tequila on top of all that salt.
Alex Mastromanno was either running a fake punt or trying to rugby punt or wanted to see what would happen if every Florida State fan on the planet slammed their heads against a wall at the same time. It’s hard to say which was his true motivation. But the end result is that, rather than take off running and likely picking up a first down, he batted a punt beyond the line of scrimmage, setting up NC State at the FSU 13-yard line.
0:38
Alex Mastromanno fakes a punt for the Seminoles, then at the last minute forgets where he is, accidentally punting past the line of scrimmage.
One drive earlier, Devin Leary was sidelined with a shoulder injury, leaving NC State with virtually no answers on offense, but it didn’t matter. Christopher Dunn booted a 53-yard field goal to pull the Wolfpack to within 1, then managed another field goal on their next drive to pull ahead 19-17.
FSU still had a chance to win late, but because Mike Norvell had minimal confidence in his kicker, he had Jordan Travis throw into the end zone on a second-and-8 play from the NC State 22, and it was picked off.
NC State trailed 17-13 when Leary went down. It attempted just two passes the rest of the way, and still pulled off the 19-17 win.
There’s pain. There’s unimaginable pain. And then there’s what happened to FSU on Saturday.
Next up? Clemson.
Purdue finally fends off a comeback bid
The football gods had not been kind to Purdue to start the season. The Boilermakers led in the final minute of each of their first five games, only to see Penn State emerge with a four-point win on a TD with 57 seconds to play, and Syracuse win by 2 on a TD with just seven seconds remaining.
It made for a somber backdrop as Taulia Tagovailoa hit Corey Dyches from 18 yards out for a potential game-tying touchdown with 35 seconds remaining Saturday at Maryland, but at long last, Purdue’s luck changed.
1:13
Maryland scores a touchdown, then appears to haul in a game-tying 2-point conversion, but the play is called back and the Terps fail on their next attempt.
The Terps appeared to have tied the game on a 2-point try in the back corner of the end zone, but the score was waved off due to a flag for an illegal man downfield (a penalty that has become college football’s equivalent of your buddy who ruins everyone’s fun by refusing to split the check evenly because he only had a salad). Maryland’s second crack at the 2-point try came up short, and Purdue escaped with a 31-29 win.
Purdue looks like the favorite now in the topsy-turvy Big Ten West, where the Boilermakers are tied for first with — surely this can’t be right? — Nebraska, among others, though no one from the division is ranked in the AP top 25. It’s nice to see that, while the Big Ten is stealing teams from the Pac-12, it managed to steal only the vibe of the ACC Coastal.
Victory bells for Leach’s Bulldogs
That unbearable clanging noise still ringing in your ears is simply the Mississippi State bandwagon rolling through SEC country.
Mike Leach’s crew dominated Arkansas 40-17 on Saturday, with Will Rogers setting the SEC record for career completions in the win, topping Aaron Murray’s previous mark of 921 in just his 28th career game.
Arkansas, which played without QB KJ Jefferson, suffered a third straight loss, dooming a once-promising season to a 1-3 mark in SEC play.
For Mississippi State, it was a statement win for a multitude of reasons. The defense was stout, fending off all three of Arkansas’ fourth-down attempts, stuffing drives at its own 8, 29 and 37. The ground game excelled, too. While Leach typically throws the ball between 40 and 600 times per game, the Bulldogs actually racked up 173 yards and three touchdowns on the ground Saturday. It was the most rushing yards by a Leach-coached team since Washington State went for 253 against Cal in 2016.
And, of course, the Bulldogs still threw the ball with ease. Rogers finished with 395 passing yards and three TDs, including one to Caleb Ducking — who now has seven TD catches on the season, offering a rare opportunity for Mississippi State fans to actually intend to type the word “ducking” in text messages.
The party could come to a screeching halt over the next month, however, as Mississippi State goes to Kentucky and Alabama in back-to-back weeks before hosting Auburn and Georgia.
Under-the-radar play of the day
With two interceptions, it was hardly Drake Maye‘s finest day for North Carolina, but he still threw for 309 yards — averaging 11 yards per attempt — and tossed two touchdowns, including this ridiculous completion to Josh Downs that was reminiscent of either Patrick Mahomes or Neo in “The Matrix.”
DRAKE MAYE OFF HIS BACK FOOT ? @UNCFootball #SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/3AEBkQ4mCr
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) October 8, 2022
The Tar Heels are now 5-1 and in clear control of the ACC Coastal. Perhaps as significant for the Heels is their defense held back-to-back ACC opponents to 24 points or fewer for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2020 season.
Under-the-radar game of the day
Georgia Tech is now 2-0 since moving on from former coach Geoff Collins. It’s fair to wonder — if he’d just let the team eat something other than Waffle House, perhaps the Yellow Jackets might’ve started playing this well much earlier.
On Saturday, Tech built a 20-6 lead on Duke entering the fourth quarter, but the Blue Devils refused to roll over. A punt return for a TD brought Duke to within one possession, and on the final drive of regulation, the Blue Devils went 80 yards on 14 plays before Riley Leonard hit Nicky Dalmolin for a TD with eight seconds remaining to force overtime.
In the extra frame, however, Georgia Tech kicked an easy field goal, then watched as Duke went backward on its possession, with kicker Charlie Ham missing from 52 yards.
Now, who wants to celebrate with a bacon-egg-and-cheese hash brown bowl?
Big bets and bad beats
UConn went on the road against FIU on Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. It marked the first time the Huskies were favored in any FBS game against a team not named UMass since 2017 vs. East Carolina, and the first time as a road favorite since 2015 against Tulane. It was due credit for a team that is, at long last, not a total embarrassment. Indeed, Saturday’s 33-12 win over FIU means the Huskies are on a winning streak! They’ve now won two games in a row and have three wins in a season for the first time since 2017. UConn has set an incredibly low bar for itself, and it’s nice to see Jim Mora casually stride over it like Lamar Jackson strutting into the end zone.
The magical start to Kansas’ season came to an end against TCU, but Jayhawks backers are still riding high. Kansas was a 7.5-point underdog at kickoff, and while it lost 38-31, that’s still a cover — the ninth straight for the Jayhawks dating back to last year’s 57-56 win over Texas. Since then, Kansas is 6-3, but all three losses have come by seven or less.
As the great Chris Fallica noted this week, there have been 18 SEC games over the past five seasons in which a team was favored by 30 or more, as Georgia was against Auburn for much of the week leading up to kickoff. The favorite in those games is just 6-12 against the spread, with the Dawgs a woeful 1-4. So, lucky for UGA backers that the line moved down to 27.5 in time for Saturday’s game. Auburn was on course to cover until Georgia engineered a late 11-play, 65-yard drive that included two third-down conversions (one on third-and-15) and was capped by a Branson Robinson TD run. Final score: Georgia 42, Auburn 10, and a garbage-time cover that beleaguered Bulldogs fans deserved.
One of the most anticipated weekends on the 2025 college football calendar is upon us.
The headliner comes Saturday night when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 3 Penn State. A potentially season-defining occasion, the clash of Big Ten powers, will test quarterbacks Drew Allar (Penn State) and Dante Moore (Oregon), Nittany Lions coach James Franklin and the Ducks’ backbone as they step into the hostile confines of Beaver Stadium in Week 5.
Elsewhere, eyes will fall on a trio of juicy SEC matchups: Alabama–Georgia, Auburn–Texas A&M and Ole Miss–LSU, all of which could hold significant implications for the conference title race and the College Football Playoff field.
Ahead of a series of high-level games, our college football reporters deliver their insights on keys to the weekend’s biggest matchups, five quarterbacks putting themselves on the map this fall and the best quotes so far from Week 5. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Alabama | Quarterbacks to know
Key conference matchups
Quotes of the Week
What does each team need to capitalize on to win?
Georgia: If the Bulldogs are going to defeat the Crimson Tide for only the second time in the past 11 meetings, they’ll have to avoid getting themselves in another big hole — and take advantage of playing Alabama at home for the first time in nearly 10 years.
In last season’s 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs trailed by three touchdowns before the end of the first quarter and by 28 points less than 18 minutes into the game. Georgia put together a furious rally in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to grab a 34-33 lead.
The Crimson Tide won on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard scoring pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to go.
Georgia had a similar slow start in its 44-41 victory in overtime at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, and the Bulldogs had to come from behind on the road. They were fortunate that Tennessee missed a 43-yard field goal attempt to take the lead near the end of regulation.
The Bulldogs didn’t do a good job of containing Milroe last season. He threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores, including several long runs to keep drives alive. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson isn’t as fast as Milroe, but he also isn’t a statue standing in the pocket.
Williams burned Georgia’s secondary on some big plays last season, finishing with six catches for 177 yards. The Bulldogs had similar problems against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, and they’ll have to shore up those mistakes and play better on the back end. Getting pressure on Simpson would also help; the Bulldogs had only four sacks in their first three games this season.
On offense, Georgia needs to do a better job of protecting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who took too many hits at Tennessee. The Bulldogs need to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Zachariah Branch, and tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also need to get their share of touches. Shoring up the right side of the offensive line, which has been a trouble spot, will allow them to be more involved in the passing game. — Mark Schlabach
Alabama: It has not been pretty for Alabama on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 2-4 since he became head coach, including a 31-17 loss to Florida State to open the season. In that loss, the Crimson Tide looked lethargic at times and ended up being beaten up front on both sides of the ball. So to give themselves any chance against Georgia, their first road game since Week 1, they simply must play better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from an ankle injury will be huge in that respect. Alabama has struggled to rush the passer without him, and has only four sacks on the season. Georgia has done a nice job using Gunner Stockton in the run game when needed, so slowing him down is also going to be key. That is also an area in which Alabama struggled against the Seminoles.
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said it would continue to rotate its starting offensive line unit to find the right combination. Getting Jam Miller back at running back is also is a big addition, not only because of his running ability but his presence as a pass blocker in the backfield. But more than anything, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said the team was eager to prove it has learned how to handle adversity in-game, something that cost it in the opener.
“There’s a difference when you have to go on the road, particularly in the SEC and in a hostile environment and respond to adversity,” Wommack said. “At times, we have been a team that has been reactionary to adversity, and we’ve got to be more responsive. It’s at the forefront of our minds, and I expect to see a very responsive football team on Saturday.” — Andrea Adelson
Five quarterbacks who are putting themselves on the map
Curt Cignetti found a gem via the transfer portal yet again. Mendoza was solid at Cal the past two years, but he was surrounded with little talent and playing in an offense that probably didn’t maximize his skill set. Turned loose at Indiana, he has looked like a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate, including a dominant five-touchdown performance in a win over Illinois. For the season, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes without an interception.
When Castellanos talked smack about Alabama this summer, it became a national punchline. When he backed it up with a win over the Tide in Week 1, he had the last laugh. Through three games, Castellanos’ 91.6 Total QBR ranks third nationally, though he’ll be in for a test the next two weeks — a road trip to Virginia on Friday for what could be a shootout and then a showdown against rival Miami. If Castellanos takes down another top-five team, the Heisman might be his to lose.
A part of the same class as Drew Allar, Pribula wasn’t able to get onto the field with any regularity at Penn State. He entered the portal and landed at Missouri, but he didn’t win the starting job there until just before the opener. And yet, once he was given his chance to shine, Pribula has looked like a star. He has racked up 11 TDs so far this season and has the Tigers undefeated and trending up in the rankings.
The sixth-year senior has been through his share of growing pains. He was a well-regarded recruit at Colorado but was part of the brutal 2021 season that led to the arrival of coach Deion Sanders, then transferred to Nevada, where his team struggled again. Now he has found the right fit at Memphis, where he has the Tigers 4-0 and well positioned to snag the Group of 6’s playoff spot.
North Texas is 4-0 and Mestemaker has 10 TD passes and no picks. It’d be a great story if that was all there was to it. But this rags-to-riches tale goes much deeper. Mestemaker wasn’t even the starter at his high school and arrived at UNT as a walk-on. He got the start in last year’s bowl game after Chandler Morris entered the portal, then beat out Reese Poffenbarger for the starting job this fall. He has rewarded the Mean Green’s belief with a red-hot start to the season. — David Hale
Biggest things that need to happen in these matchups
Auburn-Texas A&M: This series has been a strange one since 2021. The Aggies won twice at home, both times by 17 points. Auburn won twice at home, by three in 2022 and then two last year, in a 43-41 upset in four overtimes. This game, in College Station, will be another interesting one. The Aggies are coming off a bye week after their upset of Notre Dame, their first nonconference road win against an AP top-10 team since 1979. Auburn lost 24-17 at Oklahoma and is 0-5 under Hugh Freeze against ranked teams on the road. For the Tigers, they’ll first need to shore up an offensive line that gave up eight sacks on Jackson Arnold from a standard pass rush. But Auburn will look to move the ball with its rushing attack (198 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) against the Aggies, who are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground and are 102nd nationally in scoring defense at 28.7 points. But if the Aggies can get Arnold into being one-dimensional and having to play from behind, that will give them an advantage. They can do so by utilizing the dynamic duo of Mario Craver, the SEC’s leading receiver with 443 yards, even with the bye week (he had seven catches for 207 yards against Notre Dame), and KC Concepcion, who had four catches for 82 yards against the Irish. — Dave Wilson
LSU-Ole Miss: Last season’s showdown went to overtime in Baton Rouge. Expect another tight battle that comes down to details and who capitalizes on opportunities. Third-down conversions are going to be essential. Ole Miss’ offense is 5-of-17 on third and medium (3 to 7 yards) this season, and LSU’s defense is getting stops on 14 of 22 chances in that spot. This is where Lane Kiffin’s decision at QB becomes even more critical. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging 12.3 yards per carry on third downs and has yet to take a third-down sack. Can he be efficient in those high-pressure moments against the best defense he has faced? For LSU’s offense, the big question is injured running back Caden Durham‘s availability and finding answers in the run game so Garrett Nussmeier isn’t frequently stuck in third-and-long. The Tigers’ average third-down distance this season has been 7.9 yards, which ranks 114th in FBS, according to ESPN Research. — Max Olson
Oregon-Penn State: Quarterback Drew Allar needs to be a reason — perhaps the reason — why the Nittany Lions notch a signature win in a game in which they have most of the advantages. Allar wasn’t overly sharp in his past two performances, completing fewer than 58% of his passes against both Villanova and Florida International. He will need to be sharper against a talented but quite young Oregon defense, and start to change his big-game rep. Oregon must show it can handle one of the toughest environments in college football, Beaver Stadium at night in a White Out. The game marks a big growth opportunity for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, a first-year starter, and also promising young players such as wide receiver Dakorien Moore and defensive backs Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers. The Ducks visited Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, but they haven’t faced an elite Big Ten opponent on the road until now. — Adam Rittenberg
Quotes of the Week
“We need this place rocking,” Penn State coach James Franklin said ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against No. 6 Oregon. “Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”
“We’ll do everything we can to be prepared for that environment for sure,” said Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who was also asked about the song “Mo Bamba”, which has become a fixture of No. 3 Penn State home games. “I don’t love that song.”
“I would say he’s probably the hottest quarterback right now in all of college football,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of Alabama’s Ty Simpson ahead of the Bulldogs’ Week 5 visit from the No. 17 Crimson Tide. “His two last outings, I don’t know [if] I’ve seen an incompletion. The ball does not hit the ground. He’s been accurate. He’s been quick with the ball. They’re really hard to defend because of their skill. They’ve got tremendous skill — receivers, backs, tight ends. But you got to have a trigger guy that can get those guys the ball and they do.”
“We ain’t with that get-back stuff,” Colorado’s Deion Sanders said as his team prepares to face No. 25 BYU nine months after the Cougars blew out the Buffaloes in the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl. “I ain’t with that get-back stuff. I’m with that let’s-get-them stuff. They played their butts off, kicked our butts in the bowl game. Now we have a whole new team.”
“I always love when you guys say that, like, ‘Oh, OK, now we’ll go actually, like, try and game-plan really hard,” Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin said with the Rebels set to host No. 4 LSU on Saturday. “It’s OK. My boss says the same things when we play Arkansas. ‘Hey, I really need this one.’ Oh, OK, well then we’ll actually, like, try this week. We were just going to not try.”
“Is it hot in here or is it just me every week?” Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy speaking to reporters three days after the Cowboys 19-12 loss to Tulsa and less than 24 hours before he was fired Tuesday morning after his 21st season in charge of the program.
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 18 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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