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10:18 PM ET

NHL games can be incredibly entertaining, but let’s be honest: They do require an investment of time. If your wager requires you to wait around until the final score, you can push three hours of investment if the thing goes to a shootout.

That’s why wagers made on the first period of games offer instant gratification and, in many cases, more predictability than wagers made on the full game.

The first period offers the same wagers as other period-specific bets, including:

*Money line: The team that leads after the first period. This bet can end in a tie and your money is returned. Or you can make a wager without a tie factoring in.

*Puck line: Usually plus or minus 0.5 goals.
*Goal total: Usually 1.5 goals total, and the bet is over or under.
*Both teams scoring in the first or not.
*If a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of a game or not.

There are also a series of prop bets involving the number of goals scored and the team that ends up leading after one.

My personal preference is the first-period goal total. First, because I’m an impatient sort when it comes to results. But mostly because the trend lines that are established for first-period scoring tend to remain consistent.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the most notorious “slow starters” in the NHL so far this season. Through Sunday’s games, the total goals in the Lightning’s first periods have been one goal or fewer in two of their 11 games. They’ve scored only six goals in the first period on the season.

On the flip side are the Edmonton Oilers, who are among the strongest starters in the league this season. In 10 games, the first period over has hit seven times. They lead the league with 15 goals scored in the opening stanza.

“That is the most predictable part of a hockey game,” said Chris Otto, known as @PSUOtto on Twitter. Otto posts regular updates on which NHL teams go over the first-period total and which have a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of games most frequently. (The Vegas Golden Knights, for example, have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of nine of their 12 games.)

Otto didn’t even know first-period bets existed until 2019, when he noticed a group of teams were hitting the first-period over at a 90% clip.

“The way in which teams want to start games off something that is driven by the coach, based on their philosophy of the game. It’s quite obvious that some teams want to come out in games with tons of speed and chances, to try and score an early goal to put immediate pressure on their opponents,” he said. “There are other teams that want to slow the game down, knowing they cannot compete with these faster-paced teams over a full 60-minute game. So they’re going to want to start the game slow, eliminate chances and hope that they can get to the third period in a tight game, where they can then take some chances.”

Basically, the first period is how the teams intend to play the game, before variables start to impact game flow and strategy.

“Ultimately, circumstances happen within games sometimes that don’t reflect the model,” Otto said, “but on most occasions, the trends tend to hold with how teams generally want to play the game.”

Experts’ corner (Q&A)

Andy MacNeil had a “quiet and boring existence” growing up in Nova Scotia before heading to Alberta to make money in the oil and gas industry. For the past 10 years, he said, his “interest in hockey has been totally driven by gambling.” He made connections in the industry, the folks at VSiN heard about him through the grapevine and he was hired as a hockey-wagering pundit. He also does occasional work with the New York Post.

We asked Andy some questions about hockey wagering:

What’s your favorite bet on hockey?

MACNEIL: I enjoy betting the money line the most. It’s simple. It’s “who is going to win the game?” and unless otherwise stated, it includes overtime and shootouts. And it’s what got me to where I am, I guess. But it’s not just picking the straight winner of the game. I’m estimating the odds of the game and then I’m trying to find odds that offer value, relative to what they should be. It’s the easiest bet for anyone to make, even if they don’t have a statistical model.

What’s a sucker bet on hockey?

MACNEIL: The goal-scorer props. They’re the most fun bets to make, and don’t get me wrong, you’ll find a good one here or there. They are some of the most attractive bets, but they’re also the ones that are going to suck in people in the most and result in no profit made.

Actually, betting on players not to do things is a good bet to make. It’s going to be super frustrating sometimes, but betting against human achievement is the way to go.

I’m from New Jersey, and I’m not even that cynical.

MACNEIL: Most of these sportsbooks are shading the player props. You’re going to have the top players — and I don’t recommend betting against the top players all the time — shaded towards the over because most people go to the sportsbook to bet on their favorite player to score a goal or to bet on Connor McDavid to score more than 1.5 points.

Do you bet against the shooter in craps, too?

MACNEIL: I specifically stick to hockey. I’m not kidding myself. I’m not super high-IQ genius where they’re going to make movies about me beating the sportsbooks, right? I’m just trying to take my piece of the pie while it’s here. I never looked at games like blackjack or poker, thinking I could destroy people doing that. That would be foolish. The only thing I ever looked at as something I could really beat up on is hockey. I was willing to forget everything I knew about hockey to drop the preconceived biases that I had about things.

How long into a season before you get a real handle on trends?

MACNEIL: You’re starting to see who teams are right now, but things can change so quickly. You saw that the other night between the Dallas Stars and the Calgary Flames, a team that the market absolutely fell in love with because they have great underlying numbers. Dallas hadn’t looked good. But when it got to minus-145 [on Calgary] when I woke up, that’s when I start to back off. You start to feel bad if you put too much stock into teams too early. These teams are not going to be who you thought they were. The trends like home ice are up and down each week. It’s always in flux. I look at the underlying metrics: The shot share, the expected goals and score adjustments — you don’t want to just look at the raw numbers, you want to take the score into account to see how your bet did. If all that’s trending in one direction vs. core analytics and I have to make adjustments, then I’ll make adjustments. And of course stay on top of injuries.

Finish this sentence: When I get on hockey, the identity of the starting goalie is _______.

MACNEIL: Something that I project more often than not. I strongly believe that if we were to take the element of surprise away from the betting marketing, with injuries and goaltending announcements, sportsbooks could keep the limits really low during the day. I think it would have adverse effects. If you’re a recreational bettor, it’s tough to sit in front of the computer all day. I don’t expect anyone to do that. But there are websites like Daily Faceoff that are diligent in tweeting that information all day. Just set an alert on your phone for it and then be ready to get the bet in. When I had a real job, I used to spend time away from work to get a bet in. Those 15-minute trips to the bathroom, when you don’t have to go to the bathroom, you know? You gotta do what you gotta do.

What would make hockey betting more fun?

MACNEIL: I wish I had a good answer here, but … I don’t enjoy the games. [Laughs] The most exciting thing for me is waking up at 5 a.m. and getting down on a good price for a team before news comes out and the market moves. That’s the goal. That’s winning to me. I can’t control if Mikko Koskinen lets in five goals for the Oilers, but I can control what price I play. Really early on, it was about what price I paid, and that was fun to me. I find myself turning the games off some of the times — especially if the games aren’t going well.

So the thrill’s in the chase for you?

MACNEIL: It’s like chasing a stock price. That is the thrill for me. If people look at it that way, then it can be fun. This is an area where an average guy like me can hone his craft, open his mind up to thinking about things differently, and it was due to gambling. Because I don’t want to lose money.

Trick or trend

A look at some of the recent betting trends and if they’ll hold.

Seattle Kraken 7-3-2 over/under: We’ve all been trying to get a handle on who or what the Kraken are going to be this season, a debate complicated by confounding losses like that one against the then-winless Arizona Coyotes. The fact that seven of their first 12 games have gone over is a surprise, given the expectations we had for their goaltending. But Philipp Grubauer has been the league’s most disappointing goalie (minus-9.9 goals saved above average) and Chris Driedger has been limited by injury, resulting in an NHL-worst .871 team save percentage. We have to imagine that won’t last.

Verdict: Trick

Kyle Connor shot props: The Winnipeg Jets winger is third in NHL this season with 46 shots in 11 games. The typical shots on goal over/under prop is 2.5 for most players with a decent volume. Connor has topped that total in eight of his 11 games. But everyone with a box score knows this, so there might not be much value here as a prop unless his shot totals fall off. Which they won’t.

Verdict: Trend

Toronto Maple Leafs 4-8-0 over/under: The Leafs have hit the over in two of their past six games, including their 5-2 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. Lost in the attention given to Toronto’s offensive stars is that the Leafs have been among the best 5-on-5 defensive teams in the NHL over the last two seasons (2.06 expected goals against). In seven of 12 games, they’ve held opponents to two goals or fewer.

Verdict: Trend

Washington Capitals 8-3 on puck line: The Capitals are 5-2-4 on the season. Their puck-line record is an indication that they’re beating the underdogs soundly and hanging close when they’re the underdog, like in two one-goal losses against the Florida teams. They have an interesting stretch coming up against the Sabres, Red Wings and Blue Jackets that’ll test this.

Verdict: Trick

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

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15 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

  • Associated Press

Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET

For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.

The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.

Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.

The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.

Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.

The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.

The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.

Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.

Top-ranked Texas “Arch Mania” is at a fever pitch in Texas with Arch Manning now the undisputed starting quarterback.

The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.

“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”

Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.

Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.

The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).

Big Ten lurking

The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.

Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.

“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”

The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.

Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.

Poll nuggets

• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.

• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.

• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.

• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.

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AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team

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15 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

Aug 11, 2025, 12:15 PM ET

The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.

With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.

2024 record: 10-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).

2024 record: 13-1

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN

Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network

Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.

2024 record: 6-7

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.

2024 record: 11-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1

Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC

Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.

2024 record: 12-2

Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

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15 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

  • Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

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      Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.

I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)

Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.

The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)

Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.

The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas

Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.

The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.

The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)

I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.

The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)

The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.

The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas

Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.

The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)

I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.

The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)

This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.

The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)

The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.

The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami

This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.

The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)

I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.

The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)

Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.

The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)

This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.

The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)

The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.

The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)

The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.

The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)

With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.

The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)

Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.

The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)

Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.

The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)

I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.

The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)

There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.

The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)

The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.

The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5

The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.

The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)

Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.

The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)

The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.

The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)

Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.

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