NHL games can be incredibly entertaining, but let’s be honest: They do require an investment of time. If your wager requires you to wait around until the final score, you can push three hours of investment if the thing goes to a shootout.
That’s why wagers made on the first period of games offer instant gratification and, in many cases, more predictability than wagers made on the full game.
The first period offers the same wagers as other period-specific bets, including:
*Money line: The team that leads after the first period. This bet can end in a tie and your money is returned. Or you can make a wager without a tie factoring in.
*Puck line: Usually plus or minus 0.5 goals. *Goal total: Usually 1.5 goals total, and the bet is over or under. *Both teams scoring in the first or not. *If a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of a game or not.
There are also a series of prop bets involving the number of goals scored and the team that ends up leading after one.
My personal preference is the first-period goal total. First, because I’m an impatient sort when it comes to results. But mostly because the trend lines that are established for first-period scoring tend to remain consistent.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the most notorious “slow starters” in the NHL so far this season. Through Sunday’s games, the total goals in the Lightning’s first periods have been one goal or fewer in two of their 11 games. They’ve scored only six goals in the first period on the season.
On the flip side are the Edmonton Oilers, who are among the strongest starters in the league this season. In 10 games, the first period over has hit seven times. They lead the league with 15 goals scored in the opening stanza.
“That is the most predictable part of a hockey game,” said Chris Otto, known as @PSUOtto on Twitter. Otto posts regular updates on which NHL teams go over the first-period total and which have a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of games most frequently. (The Vegas Golden Knights, for example, have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of nine of their 12 games.)
Otto didn’t even know first-period bets existed until 2019, when he noticed a group of teams were hitting the first-period over at a 90% clip.
“The way in which teams want to start games off something that is driven by the coach, based on their philosophy of the game. It’s quite obvious that some teams want to come out in games with tons of speed and chances, to try and score an early goal to put immediate pressure on their opponents,” he said. “There are other teams that want to slow the game down, knowing they cannot compete with these faster-paced teams over a full 60-minute game. So they’re going to want to start the game slow, eliminate chances and hope that they can get to the third period in a tight game, where they can then take some chances.”
Basically, the first period is how the teams intend to play the game, before variables start to impact game flow and strategy.
“Ultimately, circumstances happen within games sometimes that don’t reflect the model,” Otto said, “but on most occasions, the trends tend to hold with how teams generally want to play the game.”
Experts’ corner (Q&A)
Andy MacNeil had a “quiet and boring existence” growing up in Nova Scotia before heading to Alberta to make money in the oil and gas industry. For the past 10 years, he said, his “interest in hockey has been totally driven by gambling.” He made connections in the industry, the folks at VSiN heard about him through the grapevine and he was hired as a hockey-wagering pundit. He also does occasional work with the New York Post.
We asked Andy some questions about hockey wagering:
What’s your favorite bet on hockey?
MACNEIL: I enjoy betting the money line the most. It’s simple. It’s “who is going to win the game?” and unless otherwise stated, it includes overtime and shootouts. And it’s what got me to where I am, I guess. But it’s not just picking the straight winner of the game. I’m estimating the odds of the game and then I’m trying to find odds that offer value, relative to what they should be. It’s the easiest bet for anyone to make, even if they don’t have a statistical model.
What’s a sucker bet on hockey?
MACNEIL: The goal-scorer props. They’re the most fun bets to make, and don’t get me wrong, you’ll find a good one here or there. They are some of the most attractive bets, but they’re also the ones that are going to suck in people in the most and result in no profit made.
Actually, betting on players not to do things is a good bet to make. It’s going to be super frustrating sometimes, but betting against human achievement is the way to go.
I’m from New Jersey, and I’m not even that cynical.
MACNEIL: Most of these sportsbooks are shading the player props. You’re going to have the top players — and I don’t recommend betting against the top players all the time — shaded towards the over because most people go to the sportsbook to bet on their favorite player to score a goal or to bet on Connor McDavid to score more than 1.5 points.
Do you bet against the shooter in craps, too?
MACNEIL: I specifically stick to hockey. I’m not kidding myself. I’m not super high-IQ genius where they’re going to make movies about me beating the sportsbooks, right? I’m just trying to take my piece of the pie while it’s here. I never looked at games like blackjack or poker, thinking I could destroy people doing that. That would be foolish. The only thing I ever looked at as something I could really beat up on is hockey. I was willing to forget everything I knew about hockey to drop the preconceived biases that I had about things.
How long into a season before you get a real handle on trends?
MACNEIL: You’re starting to see who teams are right now, but things can change so quickly. You saw that the other night between the Dallas Stars and the Calgary Flames, a team that the market absolutely fell in love with because they have great underlying numbers. Dallas hadn’t looked good. But when it got to minus-145 [on Calgary] when I woke up, that’s when I start to back off. You start to feel bad if you put too much stock into teams too early. These teams are not going to be who you thought they were. The trends like home ice are up and down each week. It’s always in flux. I look at the underlying metrics: The shot share, the expected goals and score adjustments — you don’t want to just look at the raw numbers, you want to take the score into account to see how your bet did. If all that’s trending in one direction vs. core analytics and I have to make adjustments, then I’ll make adjustments. And of course stay on top of injuries.
Finish this sentence: When I get on hockey, the identity of the starting goalie is _______.
MACNEIL: Something that I project more often than not. I strongly believe that if we were to take the element of surprise away from the betting marketing, with injuries and goaltending announcements, sportsbooks could keep the limits really low during the day. I think it would have adverse effects. If you’re a recreational bettor, it’s tough to sit in front of the computer all day. I don’t expect anyone to do that. But there are websites like Daily Faceoff that are diligent in tweeting that information all day. Just set an alert on your phone for it and then be ready to get the bet in. When I had a real job, I used to spend time away from work to get a bet in. Those 15-minute trips to the bathroom, when you don’t have to go to the bathroom, you know? You gotta do what you gotta do.
What would make hockey betting more fun?
MACNEIL: I wish I had a good answer here, but … I don’t enjoy the games. [Laughs] The most exciting thing for me is waking up at 5 a.m. and getting down on a good price for a team before news comes out and the market moves. That’s the goal. That’s winning to me. I can’t control if Mikko Koskinen lets in five goals for the Oilers, but I can control what price I play. Really early on, it was about what price I paid, and that was fun to me. I find myself turning the games off some of the times — especially if the games aren’t going well.
So the thrill’s in the chase for you?
MACNEIL: It’s like chasing a stock price. That is the thrill for me. If people look at it that way, then it can be fun. This is an area where an average guy like me can hone his craft, open his mind up to thinking about things differently, and it was due to gambling. Because I don’t want to lose money.
Trick or trend
A look at some of the recent betting trends and if they’ll hold.
Seattle Kraken 7-3-2 over/under: We’ve all been trying to get a handle on who or what the Kraken are going to be this season, a debate complicated by confounding losses like that one against the then-winless Arizona Coyotes. The fact that seven of their first 12 games have gone over is a surprise, given the expectations we had for their goaltending. But Philipp Grubauer has been the league’s most disappointing goalie (minus-9.9 goals saved above average) and Chris Driedger has been limited by injury, resulting in an NHL-worst .871 team save percentage. We have to imagine that won’t last.
Verdict: Trick
Kyle Connor shot props: The Winnipeg Jets winger is third in NHL this season with 46 shots in 11 games. The typical shots on goal over/under prop is 2.5 for most players with a decent volume. Connor has topped that total in eight of his 11 games. But everyone with a box score knows this, so there might not be much value here as a prop unless his shot totals fall off. Which they won’t.
Verdict: Trend
Toronto Maple Leafs 4-8-0 over/under: The Leafs have hit the over in two of their past six games, including their 5-2 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. Lost in the attention given to Toronto’s offensive stars is that the Leafs have been among the best 5-on-5 defensive teams in the NHL over the last two seasons (2.06 expected goals against). In seven of 12 games, they’ve held opponents to two goals or fewer.
Verdict: Trend
Washington Capitals 8-3 on puck line: The Capitals are 5-2-4 on the season. Their puck-line record is an indication that they’re beating the underdogs soundly and hanging close when they’re the underdog, like in two one-goal losses against the Florida teams. They have an interesting stretch coming up against the Sabres, Red Wings and Blue Jackets that’ll test this.
CHRISTIAN FAURIA HAD heard all the rumors about his new head coach long before he arrived in New England.
It was 2002, and the former second-round pick had just turned 30. He was a free agent for the first time in his career, on the verge of a decent payday, but he had endured countless ankle injuries, and his primary goal was to protect his body for the long term. Bill Belichick did not seem like the guy to do it.
“The reputation [Belichick had], whether he knew it or not, was he wasn’t good when it came to protecting his players,” Fauria said. “It was rumored to be really tough, and he was supposedly really snarky and unapproachable.”
Still, the New England Patriots were fresh off a Super Bowl, so Fauria rolled the dice. During his initial visit, he had told Belichick about his injury history and his hope to be handled with care to maximize his impact on Sundays, but he hadn’t held out much hope the coach would follow through.
Then came the first week of padded practices in preseason camp. Fauria was jogging out to the field when a trainer stopped him.
“You’re down today,” the trainer said.
Half the team stared at Fauria. He remembers Ty Law chirping, “Why’s he getting a day off already?” He felt a bit guilty, he said, but what was clear is Belichick had kept his word.
As the 2002 season wore on, Fauria realized, more and more, that all the rumors he had heard about his head coach were garbage. Belichick was nothing like he had assumed.
“Everybody has a different experience with Bill,” Fauria said, “but for me, I instantly trusted him, and as a coach, that’s the No. 1 thing you’re trying to achieve.”
What’s it like to play for the greatest coach in NFL history? That’s lesson No. 1. The public image looks nothing like the guy behind the curtain.
As Belichick settles into the coaching job at North Carolina — his first season in college — there are plenty of big questions about what this experiment will look like. Belichick, himself, admits he still has no idea just how good this team can be. But if the setting is new, the Belichick image — and its more grounded counterpoint — look about the same as they did during Fauria’s time in New England. Belichick is a football-obsessed, details-oriented coaching machine, who’s also a teacher at heart and, believe it or not, a pretty funny guy.
“It definitely wasn’t what I expected it to be,” Fauria said of his time with Belichick. “I thought I’d be miserable there, but it was the best four years of my playing career. [Belichick] could not have been more open and honest and approachable. More than any coach I’d ever had, really.”
WHEN QUARTERBACKGio Lopez jumped from South Alabama to North Carolina this past spring, he knew his new home would come with its share of surreal moments, and he had been waiting for this one.
Here he was, a once-unheralded recruit, now sitting in a film room with a six-time Super Bowl champion head coach, breaking down film of Belichick’s most prized protégé, Tom Brady.
The way Lopez had always studied film was pretty straightforward: Here’s the concept. Here’s your first read, second read and so on. Belichick saw things at another level.
“He’s talking about how a fumble in the second quarter changed the way a play unfolded in the fourth quarter,” Lopez said.
Belichick is the Roger Ebert of game film. He’s obsessed, he’s critical and he sees details in what transpires on film that no one else does.
More importantly, former Patriots great Tedy Bruschi said, Belichick can translate all that information into something easily consumed by the average player in a way few others can.
“As much information as he’ll try to give you, he’ll give it to you in the simplest form he possibly can,” Bruschi said. “He teaches it where you can understand it, digest it and, OK, for my particular job, what I have to do on this play, I’m clear on that. And that’s all he wants you to think about.”
See job, do job. Leave the hard stuff to Belichick.
And so Lopez settled in to watch film of the most successful QB in NFL history with the most successful coach in NFL history expecting Belichick to gush over just how beautifully the system works.
Click.
Brady drops back. Brady unleashes a pass. Julian Edelman hauls it in for a first down.
Thoughts?
“I just thought it was a good play,” Lopez said.
That’s the mistake, Belichick explained. No play is pass-fail. There are degrees of success, and on this one, Brady had fallen well short of the mark.
“If he’d put the ball another 2 feet to the outside,” Belichick explained, “Edelman gains 15 more yards on the play. That changes the entire course of this drive.”
And the outcome of that drive changes what happens on the next one, impacts decisions made late in the game, shifts what the defense is asked to do — dominoes, each one knocking over another before reaching a final score.
Lopez shook his head. This is why he chose North Carolina. This was the secret sauce that made Belichick great, and here he was, a month removed from playing in the Sun Belt, being taught by the master.
“This guy knows it all,” Lopez said. “It’s one of those situations where you sit back, zip your lips and open your ears.”
ALGE CRUMPLER WAS at the tail end of his career when he landed with the Patriots in 2010. He was a star with the Atlanta Falcons, but his body was battered and, if he was being honest, his contributions to an NFL offense were limited now. He could block, which in New England was still a prized asset. He could teach, and the Patriots wanted a mentor for a talented young tight end by the name of Rob Gronkowski, whom they had drafted that year.
That’s what Belichick needed from Crumpler. No more, no less.
“He only puts you on the field to do the things that you’re good at,” Crumpler said.
So Crumpler was a bit surprised when he was tabbed as part of the Patriots’ leadership council that season — a backup tight end winding down his career, sharing the job with Brady, Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. The way Crumpler saw it, he had no business being in the same room with those guys, so he mostly kept his mouth shut.
“I’m sitting there in that room with Tom and Jerod and Vince, and [Belichick’s] getting in-depth with them, and they’re being very candid,” Crumpler recalled. “I didn’t want to say a thing. Why do I need to say anything with this group that’s been here so many years?”
After a few minutes of conversation with the stars, Belichick finally turned and glared at Crumpler, who was silently watching the proceedings.
“You’re here for a f—ing reason,” Belichick said. “Open your mouth.”
Suddenly, a light switched on. The man at the top had given Crumpler his blessing to offer real insight on a team he’d just joined.
“It created a dialogue,” Crumpler said, “and it was a great season.”
Bruschi was already a fixture in the Patriots’ locker room when Belichick arrived in 2000, and at the time, he was best known, as Bruschi said, as “the coach who failed in Cleveland.”
That turned out to be a luxury, Bruschi said. The pair “grew up” together, a relationship of mutual respect in which the player felt empowered to push back.
After three Super Bowls, however, Bruschi saw things begin to change as new players arrived. Belichick certainly wasn’t a failure, but neither was he a normal coach anymore.
“They’d see Belichick as a legend,” Bruschi said. “It’s going to be difficult for these kids to get over the fact that he’s highly accomplished, and he’s just a coach that’s trying to get you better.”
The image is tougher to dismiss when a horde of cameras follows Belichick at every public appearance, and his girlfriend, Jordon Hudson, is a social media star.
For Belichick, however, it’s all “noise.”
“It is what it is,” Belichick said, in his typically subdued tone during an interview with ESPN.
And yet, inside the football facility, it’s an image Belichick has tried to discourage. His first team meeting he wore a suit and tie, receiver Jordan Shipp said, and after that, it was all cut-off sweatshirts.
He has made a point of being accessible to players, getting involved in all segments during practice, insisting on an air of approachability.
“Some of it is me coming to them,” Belichick said.
It’s the side of Belichick few outside the locker room see, but, if anything, it’s the real Belichick.
“You’ll see Coach laugh,” Crumpler said of his time in New England. “You never see it in the media. He can tell a story every day that will make you laugh, but still be serious at the same time. That was great.”
It was mid-May, however, and Shipp had to go to his head coach with a request for some time away.
There were meetings scheduled Shipp knew were important, but his younger brother was going to graduate that week, and …
Belichick stopped him in his tracks.
“That’s something you don’t miss,” Belichick told him.
Skip the meetings. Go home. Be with family. That mattered more.
If there’s anything the UNC sophomore has learned about his new head coach in the past eight months, it’s that the image Belichick has curated with the media has never matched reality for his players.
“Sometimes you forget it’s the greatest coach of all time,” Shipp said. “His office is always open. I can go in and watch film whenever. It’s a safe space with him at all times.”
JAMIE COLLINS HAD crushed the combine in 2013, and a slew of requests followed from teams hoping for private workouts ahead of the draft. He had participated in his share, but by early April, he was done. He had called his agent and given an ultimatum: no more.
It was a little strange then that his phone kept buzzing one morning soon after his edict. He had calls from his agent, a few coaches, some teammates. He ignored them all.
Then came the beating on his bedroom door, his roommate yelling, “Bill Belichick wants to see you.”
Belichick was interested in drafting Collins, and no mandate against additional private workouts was going to stop him from seeing the guy play, so he simply showed up in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, unannounced, and expected Collins to comply.
Collins did.
“He put me through it, man,” Collins said. “He tried to break me.”
Collins’ determination was the last thing Belichick needed to see before the Patriots drafted him in the second round. He would spend seven years playing for Belichick before following him into coaching this year at North Carolina.
That’s the other part of Belichick’s magic formula, Collins said. He wants players willing to maximize all Belichick has to teach them. It’s a two-way street. He demands much, but the buy-in from his players — they have to provide that willingly. That’s the test they must pass before they can gain access to the vault of football knowledge Belichick has to share.
Upon arrival in Chapel Hill, Belichick branded the Tar Heels as “the 33rd NFL team,” conjuring an image of militaristic fervor — all football, all the time. And yet, UNC’s players insist it’s not that way at all. If anything, they’re enjoying more freedom than ever.
“I was expecting him to be a lot of what you see in interviews — very mundane, always cussing you out,” safety Will Hardy said. “He’s an encourager.”
Yes, Belichick has brought a lot of the NFL to UNC — GM Michael Lombardi, a former Patriots strength coach, a chef.
But, Lopez said, there are fewer meetings than he was used to at South Alabama, and while the players are expected to work with a sense of professionalism, Belichick and his staff have largely allowed them the freedom to do so without micromanagement.
“They expect you to want to be great,” Lopez said. “It’s more like they expect you to want to learn it. It’s a lot different than South Alabama. They give you more room to function.”
He did that in pros, and he’s giving the Tar Heels the same freedom to choose their path.
“He treats you like a grown man,” Collins said. “And he’s going to provide everything you need to be successful. That’s where that expectation comes from. He’s not going to ask anything from you that he hasn’t already given you [what] you need to accomplish it.”
There are ample questions about how Belichick’s NFL pedigree will translate to the college game, and his interactions with 18- to 22-year-old players is at the top of the list.
But Collins admits that might be the one way his old coach has changed. Belichick has softened around the edges a bit.
“I’ve seen the Bill that was coaching us,” said Collins, UNC’s inside linebackers coach. “And I’ve seen a different side of Bill coaching these guys. That’s the eliteness of him, understanding situations. It’s what makes him great. It’s still Bill though.”
Fauria thinks the new age of college football actually lends to Belichick’s strengths. Players view themselves as professionals more than ever before, and in a game increasingly determined by dollars and cents, the old rules of placating personalities rather than simply paying for talent are out the window.
“If this was 10 years ago, I don’t know if he’d have the stomach for it,” Fauria said. “I’m not sure if he’s willing to go to someone’s house and do ‘The Electric Slide’ in someone’s living room. But Bill is prepared for this. He’s tailor-made for this job based on how it has evolved.”
Will it look a little different at North Carolina? Probably, but the core of the process, Bruschi said, won’t change. From those first days in the Patriots’ locker room in 2000 to the first days in Chapel Hill now, Belichick is the same guy with the same laser focus on football and the same approach to building a team. The success or failure of that methodology will, according to the players who’ve won rings with him in New England, depend on how much these Tar Heels are willing to maximize the experience, not on how well Belichick adapts to his new surroundings.
“If you’re looking for structure, you’re going to get it,” Fauria said. “If you’re looking for knowledge, you’re going to get it. If you’re looking for a road map and directions and information and the why — why are we doing this? — he literally tells you. He’d give you examples. Tons of information. When people say he’s going to have you more prepared than anybody, I don’t think that’s hyperbole. It’s demanding and it’s hard, but if you crave the challenge and appreciate the grind and you love football, there’s nobody better.”
ARLINGTON, Texas — Nathan Eovaldi‘s impressive streak for Texas ended with a dud, but without a decision in a victory that the wild card-chasing Rangers really needed.
After going 6-0 with a 0.47 ERA in six starts since the start of July, Eovaldi was tagged for three home runs while allowing season highs of five runs and eight hits in five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night. The Rangers were down 5-1 when he exited, but won 7-6 in 10 innings to end their four-game losing streak.
“That’s all that matters at the end of the day,” Eovaldi said. “Regardless how well I do out there or anything, it’s about the team winning the games. Especially with where we are at this point of the season and everything.”
The 35-year-old right-hander struck out three, walked one and hit two batters. He got a no-decision because Rowdy Tellez homered in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, and Jake Burger delivered a pinch-hit RBI single in the 10th.
“Nate’s been so, so good. And he just showed that, hey, you’re gonna have occasional games where you don’t quite command it as well. And they took advantage of it,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “But he’s picked us up so many times. So man, what a great job by the boys. And find a way to win that ball game with just a gutty effort by everybody, bullpen, hitters. We needed this one.”
Eovaldi had given up only six runs total over his previous seven starts, and half of those runs came in the same game. There had only been two long balls against him his past 14 games.
When he pitched one-hit ball over eight innings in a 2-0 win over the New York Yankees last Tuesday, it was the 13th time in a 14-game span allowing one or zero runs. Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Gibson is the only pitcher since 1900 to record that kind of streak, according to STATS, and he did it in 1968, the season he won both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards.
“I’ve got to make better pitches, stick to my strengths and what’s worked for me all year,” Eovaldi said. “And I kind of got away from that a little bit tonight.”
Even though Evoladi’s overall ERA rose from 1.38 to 1.71, that is still better than the 1.94 of qualified MLB leader Paul Skenes. The AL leader is reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal at 2.35.
Eovaldi, who missed most of June with elbow inflammation, has thrown 116 innings in the Rangers’ 120 games. Pitchers need one inning per team game to qualify as a league leader.
Arizona’s first five batters were retired before rookie first baseman Tyler Locklear homered in the second. Jake McCarthy opened the third with a double and Corbin Carrol followed with his 26th homer, a shot that ricocheted off the right-field pole. Ketel Marte was then hit by a pitch on his left elbow before Geraldo Perdomo’s 12th homer for a 5-0 lead.
“I didn’t feel like my splitter was as good as it has been. I thought I threw a lot of pitches up at the top of the strike zone, and I feel like that’s where a lot the damage was,” Eovaldi said. “I fell behind in some of the counts. The Perdomo at-bat, I yanked a fastball right down the middle. … The two-run shots, they hurt.”
Eovaldi benefitted from double plays in both the fourth and fifth innings to avoid giving up any more run. The Dbacks were coming off a 17-hit game in their 13-6 win at home over Colorado on Sunday, when they set a franchise record with nine consecutive hits in the fifth inning – all with two outs.
Only four MLB pitchers since 1920 had a lower ERA than the 1.38 for Eovaldi in the first 19 starts of a season, with Gibson’s 1.06 for St. Louis in 1968 the lowest.
This is Eovaldi’s third season with the Rangers, who gave him the $100,000 All-Star bonus that is in his contract even though he was left off the American League All-Star team last month.
HOUSTON — Astros‘ All-Star closer Josh Hader was unavailable Monday night after experiencing shoulder discomfort.
Manager Joe Espada said after Houston’s 7-6 win over the Red Sox that the left-hander said “he just did not feel right” after a workout Monday, and the Astros sent him for testing.
“We’re waiting on those results, and we should have something more tomorrow,” Espada said.
Espada didn’t specify which shoulder was bothering Hader.
Hader, who is in his second season in Houston, is 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA and is tied for third in the majors with 28 saves in 48 appearances this season.