Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to the presidential palace in Kyiv was met with a message from Russia when a drone was blasted out of the sky above.

The prime minister was meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, on Sir Keir’s first visit to Kyiv since his election victory last July.

The sound of anti-aircraft gunfire was audible in the palace courtyard as air sirens warned of possible drone attacks. While air sirens blaring are a daily occurrence in Ukraine, it’s rare for drones to be shot out of the sky over the presidential palace.

One drone was shot down, although eyewitnesses think there were at least two drones operating and suspect they were probably surveillance drones, as the one taken out didn’t explode on impact.

President Zelenskyy gave his Russian enemies short shrift, saying when the drone was detected: “We will say hello to them too.”

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An audacious move by Moscow, Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.

The PM reiterated his support for Ukraine’s eventual accession to NATO, and noted the discussion at the NATO summit in Washington last year – when its allies put Ukraine on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership.

However, President Zelenskyy, perhaps with an eye on the incoming Trump administration, was more forthright in his response to the question of Western allies supporting Ukraine’s membership. He told reporters the US, Slovakia, Germany and Hungary “cannot see us in NATO”.

President Trump has recently acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean, as the president-elect said: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”

‘Nothing is off the table’

This was a news conference big on symbolism as Sir Keir vowed to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes and put Kyiv in the strongest possible position for negotiations with Russia.

He pledged to work with Ukraine in the months ahead to ensure security guarantees for the country in any ceasefire deal, while also opening the door to possible troop deployments in training or a peacekeeping capacity, saying “nothing is off the table”.

“We must be totally clear – a just and lasting peace comes through strength,” said Sir Keir.

The PM also pledged to send 1,540 artillery barrels to Ukraine as President Zelenskyy called for more weapons, blaming Russia’s advance in the eastern part of Ukraine on the slow supply of weapons.

A new mobile defence system and a ramping up in the training of troops were also promised by Sir Keir.

President Zelenskyy also acknowledged in the news conference that much is uncertain around this conflict and what security guarantees Ukraine might get from its allies ahead of conversations with Trump.

In a region bereft of hope, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a flicker of possibility – but make no mistake, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about the deal.

If all goes well, the violence in Gaza which has ravaged the enclave for 467 long and brutal days will halt and hopefully lead to a better future.

However, the question remains – just how likely is the ceasefire deal to succeed in the long term?

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The agreement will in the short term offer at least a pause from the fighting. It’s perhaps better to look at it in that context, as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.

More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.

Israel launched its response after around 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023.

For Israel, the deal in the first phase will see the release of 33 hostages who have been held inside the strip since they were kidnapped that day.

It is not lost on anyone though how difficult it’s been – after many false starts – to get to this point.

The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and there’s a sense that it’s been left that way to simply get it across the line and started.

Much could still go wrong and there are more questions than there are answers.

Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it can have no place in post-war Gaza.

However, as an entity and fighting force, it is diminished but far from defeated.

It will almost certainly not give up power easily.

Read more:
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World will be watching – this ceasefire could yet collapse

It is this ambiguity that raises the terrifying spectre that the fighting could start up again at any point – many of the main issues remain unresolved.

For instance, we still don’t know who will run Gaza in the longer term.

The international community’s answer to that is a reformed Palestinian authority but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that that’s not acceptable to Israel – neither is any role for Hamas.

As far as mediators are concerned, it seems there’s a hope that the deal can commence and then, over the six weeks of the first phase, more negotiations can take place – and hopefully, faith on both sides can be created to bring around a permanent ceasefire.

But if all of that collapses we could see a return to the violence.

There are also domestic considerations inside Israel – the deal in some respects is all things to all men.

It means Netanyahu can present it as both temporary or permanent, depending on who he’s speaking to or trying to appease.

But on an optimistic note, it does mean that as long as the negotiations continue, there’s no fighting.

More broadly it’s also worth bearing in mind that over the years there have been numerous attempts at ceasefire deals – most of which have ultimately failed to bring long-lasting peace to the region.

This pattern of repeated failures raises doubts about the likelihood of success this time.

Both sides have a long history of mistrust and animosity.

Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hamas has backtracked on an earlier understanding of the ceasefire agreement, which is awaiting the approval of the Israeli government.

The Israeli prime minister said the group was objecting to part of the agreement which would give Israel the ability to veto the release of certain Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas was trying to dictate which Palestinian prisoners would be released, he said.

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“Among other things – contrary to a specific clause that grants Israel the veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terrorism, Hamas is demanding to dictate the identities of these terrorists,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.

It said Mr Netanyahu has told Israeli negotiators to stand firm on the earlier agreement. Hamas is yet to respond.

Any deal will need to be approved by Mr Netanyahu’s security cabinet and then his government.

Since the agreement has been announced at least 32 people have been killed in heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza, medics reported.

Strikes continued into Thursday morning, flattening houses in Rafah in southern Gaza, Nuseirat in central Gaza and in northern Gaza, local residents said.

The ceasefire deal does not come into force until Sunday.

The announcement comes after weeks of painstaking negotiations in Doha against the backdrop of a war in Gaza that has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead and many more injured and displaced from their homes.

Much of the densely-populated territory has been razed to the ground as Israel launched a ground offensive following the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 which left 1,200 people dead and around 250 people taken hostage.

Read more:
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Faces of 94 hostages who still haven’t returned home
What does the agreement say?
The war in numbers

What’s in the deal?

The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of Palestinians to north Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official briefed on the agreement.

Hamas will release 33 hostages, including all women, children and men over the age of 50, the agency said.

In return for the release of the hostages, Israel will free between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Israel will release 30 Palestinian detainees for every civilian hostage and 50 Palestinian detainees for every female Israeli soldier that Hamas releases.

There will also be a surge of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza as part of the agreement, which requires 600 aid trucks to be allowed into Gaza each day.

Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement are to begin on the 16th day of phase one and are expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.

A third phase is expected to include the return of the bodies of the dead hostages and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the UN.

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Shortly after the ceasefire deal was announced, Hamas’ acting Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya said in a televised address that Israel failed to achieve its goals in the Palestinian territory.

He also vowed Hamas will neither forgive nor forget Israel’s actions in Gaza.