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Most Americans face tax hikes starting in 2026, and the increased federal tax bite will come about without Congress lifting a finger. That’s because 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires at the end of 2025, and despite some politicians’ contrary claims, a majority of Americans benefited from that law. The end of tax cuts for so many people necessarily results in corresponding increases to come.

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Δ Tax Cuts for Most, but With a Time Limit

“Unless Congress acts, the vast majority of Americans will see higher, more complicated taxes beginning in 2026 as major provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 expire,” warns the Tax Foundation. “The TCJA reduced average tax burdens for taxpayers across the income spectrum and temporarily simplified the tax filing process through structural reforms. It also boosted capital investment by reforming the corporate tax system and significantly improved the international tax system.”

The widespread benefits of the TCJA shouldn’t be a matter for debate. But there’s confusion because Team Biden and fans of high taxes fibbed about the law leading up to the 2020 presidential election.

“Biden’s false claim that no one but the rich got Trump’s tax cuts,” headlined a 2019 Washington Post Glenn Kessler piece about the debate over the law. “Most Americans received a tax cut,” he added.

“About 65 percent of households paid less in individual income taxes in 2018 as a result of the TCJA,” wrote the Tax Policy Center’s Howard Gleckman. “About 6 percent paid more. The rest paid about the same.”

Adjusting for all federal taxes under pre-TCJA law, the Cato Institute’s Chris Edwards commented, “lower? and middle??income groups received the largest relative individual income tax cuts.”

So, there’s widespread agreement that a law which cut taxes for most Americans is poised to expire, resulting in higher taxes. But, just as the benefits of the tax cuts varied across the population, so will the size of the bite taken by tax increases starting in 2026. Tax Hikes for All

“The largest average tax hikes would be experienced by taxpayers who reside in California’s congressional districts,” note the Tax Foundation’s Garrett Watson and Erica York. “For example, the congressional district covering the San Francisco area would see an average tax hike of $16,127 per taxpayer, the highest in the U.S. By contrast, northern New York City would see an average tax increase of $807 per taxpayer under TCJA expiration.”

That link takes you to a tool that lets you look up the estimated impact of TCJA expiration on taxpayers in states and congressional districts across the country.

Separately, the Tax Foundation published a tax calculator that lets you estimate the impact of TCJA expiration on you and your family, given specifics such as marital status, income, number of children, and choice of standard or itemized deductions. The calculator accounts for “most aspects of the federal individual income tax code except provisions related to business and self-employed income.”

That said, extending the TCJA’s tax cuts has high costs of its own since that would reduce the amount of money collected by the federal government to spend on its projects. Tax Cuts and Tradeoffs

“Federal tax revenues would fall by more than $4 trillion on a conventional basis and by nearly $3.5 trillion on a dynamic basis over the coming decade; and without spending cuts, debt and deficits would increase,” concedes a May Tax Foundation report on options regarding the law.

“By the year 2050, permanent extension of TCJA laws would reduce federal revenues from 18.4 percent to 17.1 percent of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” Jagadeesh Gokhale and Mariko Paulson of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model specify. “Federal debt held by the public would rise from 226.0 percent of GDP to 261.1 percent by 2050.”

But that decrease in revenue and corresponding rise in debt and deficits may matter only if it hampers a serious plan to control the federal government’s ongoing spending spree. Separately, the Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts that “a maximum debt-GDP ratio of 200 percent can be sustained even if investors believe (maybe myopically) that a closure rule will then prevent that ratio from increasing into the future.” They say the real ceiling on federal debt is more like 175 percent of GDP before the financial markets entirely lose faith in the U.S. economy. Debt as a percentage of GDP above that point is disastrous, whether at 226 percent or 261 percent.

It makes sense, then, for Americans to submit to significant tax hikes only if those increases go to balancing the federal budget, eliminating deficits, and controlling debt. Otherwise, we’re going to pay more for what is essentially the same very bad outcome. A Need for Serious Reform

Benefits of extending the TCJA, on the other hand, operate independent of faith in a sudden surge in responsibility among the political class. Extending the law’s provisions “would boost long-run GDP by 1.1 percent and employment by 913,000 full-time equivalent jobs,” according to the Tax Foundation.

For extending the TCJA, the Tax Foundation considers two options, both including modifications that seek to reduce the hit to federal revenues while maximizing gains for individuals. Option 2, for example, “broadens the individual income tax base by ending the income tax exclusion for employer-provided fringe benefits, most notably health insurance.”

That’s a matter of tweaking the current system around the edges to maintain relief for individuals and a faster-growing economy. Tax Foundation experts also propose possible fundamental changes, including entirely dumping the income tax system in favor of a consumption tax. That has the potential to significantly boost personal income as well as GDP and reduce the national debt. Of course, the gains really apply only if the government also reduces spending.

But such fundamental reform is a lot to ask of a political class that spent us into a corner and now wants tax hikes so there’s even more of our money to spend. Letting the TCJA expire requires placing enormous faith in people who got us into a fiscal mess to begin with.

Fundamental reforms to the federal government’s finances are absolutely necessary. Until that happens, we should resist stealth tax hikes so we can keep our hard-earned money for ourselves.

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World

Inside Iran’s notorious Evin Prison – as Tehran says damage shows Israel targeted civilians

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Inside Iran's notorious Evin Prison - as Tehran says damage shows Israel targeted civilians

It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.

Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.

But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.

Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.

Evin Prison, Iran

We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.

A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.

Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.

What Iran says was the hospital at the Evin Prison
Image:
Debris scattered across what Iran says was the prison hospital

It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.

On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.

Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.

The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.

The visitor centre at Evin Prison after Israeli attacks
Image:
Authorities say this building was the visitor centre


Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.

But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.

Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.

British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.

Read more:
Iran: Still a chance for peace talks with US
Why Netanyahu wants a 60-day ceasefire – analysis

The main complex holding prisoners sits atop a hill
Image:
Inmates are held in building on a hill above, which has been untouched by airstrikes

Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.

The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.

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The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.

The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.

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Environment

Tesla prototype sparks speculation: a Model Y, maybe slightly smaller

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Tesla prototype sparks speculation: a Model Y, maybe slightly smaller

A new Tesla prototype was spotted again, reigniting speculation among Tesla shareholders, even though it’s likely just a Model Y, potentially a bit smaller, and the upcoming stripped-down, cheaper version.

Over the last few months, there have been several sightings of what appears to be a Model Y with camouflage around Tesla’s Fremont factory.

It sparked a lot of speculation about it being the new “affordable” compact Tesla vehicle.

There’s confusion in the Tesla community around Tesla’s upcoming “affordable” vehicles because CEO Elon Musk falsely denied a report last year about Tesla’s “$25,000” EV model being canceled.

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The facts are that Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla” in early 2024. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.

Instead, Musk noticed that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as the Company faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicles program based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.

We previously reported that these electric vehicles will likely look very similar to Model 3 and Model Y.

In recent months, several other media reports reinforced this, and Tesla all but confirmed it during its latest earnings call, when it stated that it is “limited in how different vehicles can be when built on the same production lines.”

Now, the same Tesla prototype has been spotted over the last few days, and it sent the Tesla shareholders community into a frenzy of speculations:

Electrek’s Take

As we have repeatedly reported over the last year, the new “affordable” Tesla “models” coming are basically only stripped-down Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

They might end up being a little smaller by a few inches, and Tesla may use different model names, but they will be extremely similar.

If this is it, which is possible, you can see it looks almost exactly like a Model Y.

It’s hard to confirm if it’s indeed smaller because of the angle of the vehicle compared to the other Model Ys, but it’s not impossible that the wheelbase is a bit smaller – although it’s hard to confirm.

Either way, the most significant changes for these stripped-down, more affordable “models” are expected to be cheaper interior materials, like textile seats instead of vegan leather, no heated or ventilated seats standard, no rear screen, maybe even no double-panned acoustic glass and a lesser audio system.

As previously stated, the real goal of these new variants, or models, is to lower the average sale price in order to combat decreasing demand and maintain or increase the utilization rate of Tesla’s current production lines, which have been throttled down in the last few years to now about 60% utilization.

If this trend continues, Tesla would find itself in trouble and may even have to close its factories.

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Politics

US Senator Lummis’s crypto tax relief plan fuels DeFi momentum: Finance Redefined

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US Senator Lummis’s crypto tax relief plan fuels DeFi momentum: Finance Redefined

US Senator Lummis’s crypto tax relief plan fuels DeFi momentum: Finance Redefined

Increasing US regulatory clarity is enabling more traditional finance participants to seek out decentralized financial solutions.

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