Expect a steady the ship budget with promises of jam tomorrow from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt | Beth Rigby
After the debacle of Liz Truss’s September mini-budget, with all its mega ramifications, and an autumn statement eight weeks later that performed an about-turn so big that the country’s tax burden hit a 70-year-high, Wednesday’s budget will be all about stability and sticking to the plan.
“No big bangs in this budget,” is how one senior government insider put it to me last week. “It’s got to be a growth budget.
“We’re fighting to be competitive again with Labour. If we can get to next summer and the economy is ticking up, and we can narrow the gap to five to eight points behind in the polls, there’s a chance in an election campaign we can shift the dial.”
Tax cuts, I’m told, will have to wait.
Politics live: Date confirmed for Johnson to face partygate inquiry
What the chancellor and prime minister want to project this week is the sense that they are getting the economy back on track, and working towards Rishi Sunak’s pledges to halve inflation, get debt down and get the UK economy growing again.
Do that, argue his allies, and the tax cuts will come – just in time for a general election.
But there is pressure, and lots of it, from voters and from the Tory backbenchers to do more on tax cuts and cost-of-living now, not tomorrow.
And that pressure is all the more palpable after the chancellor received a £30bn windfall in the public finances last month, after it emerged that in the year to January, the public sector had borrowed less than forecast in November by the UK’s official fiscal watchdog.
Floating voters we spoke to in a focus group in one Tory shire seat last week told us that struggling with the cost-of-living and a buckling NHS were top of their concerns, and they expressed scepticism that the government was up to the job.
One voter in the Wycombe constituency in Buckinghamshire described the government as “stale”, with another telling us: “The current crisis emphasises that our government is fairly broken.”
On the cost-of-living, our group of floating voters spoke of their anxiety around energy bills, food prices and childcare.
Charlotte, a working mum, told us she had to change her working hours because she couldn’t afford childcare costs.
“I can’t afford to work full time anymore,” she told us. “It’s not feasible for our family, so I’ve had to rope my mum in to do childcare.
“I wouldn’t say we’re a low earning family. That’s just the way it is now.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Voters talk about their priorities with our political editor Beth Rigby.
Food bills were also a concern, with voters saying they’d switched to cheaper supermarkets and cut back in the face of galloping food price inflation.
Ashley, who in the past has voted Conservative but is now undecided, told us he’d switched his weekly shop from Tesco and M&S to Aldi, while energy bills were a problem all round.
“I’ve voted Conservative a long time,” the father-of-two told us. “And then I got a bit tired of, you know, Boris and the promises.
“We need to have some results and I want to see some improvement, not the deflection bit around immigration, [but] some real positive on the cost of living. For me, that’s the most key…it’s what’s important to people.”
Short and long term plans
The Treasury is alive to the pressure, with insiders telling me there will be two parts to Mr Hunt’s budget on Wednesday: a short-term support plan to provide immediate relief on the cost-of-living crisis and then the long-term plan for growth.
On the first part of that, the government is expected to extend the £2,500 energy price guarantee for another three months from April (where there had been a planned rise to £3,000) to give people support on their bills.
The chancellor is also under pressure to again freeze fuel taxes in this budget, at a cost of £6bn.
When it comes to childcare, the chancellor is expected to change rules so that parents on Universal Credit are given more money for childcare and given the funding upfront.
The Treasury is also believed to be planning a cash injection of hundreds of millions into increasing the availability of the 30 hours of free childcare to three to four-year-olds.
Mr Hunt also plans to loosen staff-to-child ratios for two-year-olds, which could make the cost of childcare a little cheaper.
But anything really big bang on childcare, such as extending 30 hours of free childcare to one-and two-year-olds, is unlikely – that policy would cost around £6bn.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
These are some predictions for the budget.
And when it comes to the most obvious way of helping people manage their bills – wage packets – the government is standing firm, with Treasury insiders insisting there will be no above inflation pay sector awards.
Neither is the chancellor expected to offer voters any cuts to personal taxes.
“We haven’t got £30bn to cut taxes,” is how one government insider put it to me, in a nod to the boost from revised public finances.
“What we’ve got to do is get people back into work, be that through better childcare support or incentives to get those in their 50s back into work.
“That is where we have to focus policy, and that could amount to say £5bn and that comes out of the [£30bn] headroom.”
Because beyond the short-term support measures, the focus for this budget will be on trying to get the economy moving and getting people back to work post-pandemic, with a package of measures to try to shift parents, the sick, disabled and older workers back into jobs.
To that end, the chancellor is expected to raise the lifetime allowance for pension savings from £1m to an expected £1.8m – a record level – in order to try to incentivise doctors and other professionals out of retirement and back into work.
He could also lift the annual tax-free allowance for pensions from £40,000 to £60,000.
It’s a package that could cost £2bn a year and would be much welcomed by higher earners, but also opens the chancellor up to criticism that he is giving a tax break to the rich while offering nothing to basic rate taxpayers.
Read more:
What to look out for in Hunt’s first budget
And when it comes to the other group of voters the chancellor and PM need to placate, his backbenchers, there is disquiet over the high level of tax burden, with many Tory MPs keen for tax cuts.
One former cabinet minister told me last week that they wanted to see the £30bn windfall in the public finances used to reverse the planned increase in corporation tax from 19p to 25p in April.
It is a pretty popular refrain.
But Treasury insiders insist the tax hike will go ahead and instead the chancellor will offer business tax breaks to try to encourage growth.
When Mr Sunak was chancellor back in March 2021, he created the £25bn “super-deduction” tax allowance for capital investment – a two-year measure offering 130% tax relief on companies’ purchases of equipment – in order to try to boost investment and growth.
Mr Hunt is coming up with a new set of plans to try to support business and could give firms much more generous capital allowances to incentivise investment.
Watch too for policies and reforms targeting certain industries and sectors, from artificial intelligence to green energy and advanced manufacturing: all of it will be framed as the government’s long-term plan for growth.
Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be hoping to reassure people they are making the right choices for the UK economy.
Wednesday will be, if you like, the third act of the prime minister’s performance over the past few weeks to try and win a jaded public back around by trying to convince them he will stick to his plan and deliver on promises.
On the international stage, he has rehabilitated the UK with allies after the bumpy years of Prime Minister Johnson and then Prime Minister Truss, symbolised most strongly in a deal with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland – where even his foes conceded Mr Sunak had got more than they expected.
At home, the PM has put forward his plan to “stop the boats” – a key priority of many of the voters he needs to keep onside or win back in 2024.
Whether the plan, surrounded in legal and practical controversies, will come off remains to be seen.
But Mr Sunak will at least be able, to quote one of his allies, “build a narrative” that blames the failure of the policy around France and the EU refusing to grant the UK a returns agreement and the international courts blocking his plans.
“At least he can then make the argument it wasn’t his fault,” they said.
Narrow path back
On Wednesday, the focus will be on the PM’s three economic targets – halving inflation, cutting debt and growing the economy – as the chancellor tries to lay down the best conditions he can for the Conservatives’ run into the general election in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s allies tell me they think there is a way back to victory for this government at the ballot box once again, but the “path is very narrow”.
A budget then building the foundations rather than lighting the fireworks, all of this the groundwork for the pre-election showstopper next year.
But with the cost-of-living squeeze so acute, the promise of jam tomorrow is unlikely to satisfy the public, particularly if those being given some of the spoils this time around look to be business and the wealthy.
Mr Hunt may be charged with steadying the ship, but he’ll have to be skilful on Wednesday not to lose more ground.
For the first time since the war in Gaza began in October 2023, Palestinian officials have said that dozens of people are dying of hunger.
At least 101 people are known to have died of malnutrition during the conflict, including 80 children, most of them in recent weeks, according to officials.
United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres has said malnourishment is soaring and starvation is knocking on every door in Gaza, describing the situation as a “horror show”.
Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Latest updates on the Middle East
Israel controls all supplies entering Gaza and has denied it is responsible for food shortages.
Some food stocks in the Palestinian territory have run out since Israel cut off all supplies in March and then lifted the blockade in May with new measures it said were needed to prevent aid from being diverted to militant groups.
Israel has blamed the UN for failing to protect aid it says is stolen by Hamas and other groups. The fighters deny stealing it.
‘There is nothing left’
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has said its aid stocks are completely depleted in Gaza and some of its staff are starving, with the organisation accusing Israel of paralysing its work.
“Our last tent, our last food parcel, our last relief items have been distributed. There is nothing left,” said Jan Egeland, the council’s secretary-general.
The NRC said that for the last 145 days, it has not been able to get hundreds of truckloads of tents, water, sanitation, food and education materials into Gaza.
COGAT, the Israeli military aid coordination agency, and Israeli authorities did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israel denies accusations it is preventing aid from reaching Gaza.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Israel wants to ‘finish off’ Gaza
Aid workers ‘fainting due to hunger’
The NRC comments echo those made earlier by the head of the UN Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA), who said doctors and aid workers have been fainting on duty due to hunger and exhaustion.
“Caretakers, including UNRWA colleagues in Gaza, are also in need of care now. Doctors, nurses, journalists, humanitarians, among them. UNRWA staff are hungry. Many are now fainting due to hunger and exhaustion while performing their duties,” UNRWA commissioner general Philippe Lazzarini said.
He warned that seeking food has become “as deadly as the bombardments”, describing the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid distribution scheme as a “sadistic death trap”.
“This cannot be our new norm, humanitarian assistance is not the job of mercenaries,” he added.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Lammy: I hope and pray for Gaza ceasefire soon
The UK, and several other countries, have condemned the current aid delivery model, backed by the Israeli and American governments, which has reportedly resulted in Israeli troops firing on Palestinian civilians in search of food on multiple occasions.
More than 800 people have reportedly been killed in recent weeks trying to reach food, mostly in shootings by Israeli soldiers posted near distribution centres.
Read more:
Gaza food situation ‘worst it’s ever been’, charity says
Israel launches ground assault on central Gazan city
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
IDF enters this Gaza city for first time – why?
Israel ‘risking more civilian deaths’
Meanwhile, Israeli displacement orders followed by intensive attacks on the central Gaza city of Deir al Balah will lead to further civilian deaths, the head of the UN human rights office has said.
On Monday, Israeli tanks pushed into southern and eastern districts of the city for the first time after Israel issued an evacuation order.
The area is packed with Palestinians who have been displaced during the war in the coastal territory, and Israeli sources said the military believes hostages may be held there.
Now, Volker Turk, the head of the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights, has said: “It seemed the nightmare couldn’t possibly get worse.
“And yet it does… given the concentration of civilians in the area, and the means and methods of warfare employed by Israel until now, the risks of unlawful killings and other serious violations of international humanitarian law are extremely high.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Gazan doctor being held
Tents sheltering displaced people ‘hit by strikes’
Also, at least 20 people were killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza on Tuesday, according to officials in the Hamas-run strip.
Among them were 12 who died when tents sheltering displaced people in the Shati refugee camp on the western side of Gaza City were hit, according to Shifa Hospital, which treated casualties.
The dead included three women and three children, said hospital director Dr Mohamed Abu Selmiyah, who added that 38 other Palestinians were injured.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
And eight people were killed in an overnight strike that hit crowds of people waiting for aid trucks in Gaza City, according to hospitals. The Palestinian Red Crescent said at least 118 people were wounded.
Israel blames the deaths of Palestinian civilians on Hamas because the militants operate in densely populated areas. It accuses the group of prolonging the war because Hamas has not accepted Israel’s terms for a ceasefire – including calls to give up power and disarm.
Health officials say Israeli forces have killed almost 60,000 Palestinians in airstrikes, shelling and shooting since launching their assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, when 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken hostage.
The smell hit us before we turned the corner into the backyard of Sweida City’s main hospital.
Neatly laid out in lines were rows of white body bags: some of the victims of the vicious bloodletting which the mainly-Druze city has suffered over the past week.
There are more than 90 corpses in the yard, now badly decomposing in the heat.
They are still picking up bodies from the hospital’s front garden as we arrive.
They say they have been unable to bury them because of the fierce fighting around the Syrian city.
There are dozens of corpses in the hospital yard, now badly decomposing in the heat
Most of the dead here are unidentified and will be buried in a mass grave near the hospital in the hope that a full investigation will be launched in less turbulent times.
Inside the hospital, we’re taken through darkened corridors powered by a generator. The electricity and internet in the city and the surrounding villages are not working.
Traumatised patients
Food and water are scarce and the doctors say medical supplies are dwindling. The hospital is in a shockingly dirty state, and many of the people in it are traumatised and frightened.
A Druze fighter in a destroyed hospital corridor
Dr Obeida Abu Fakher, who is the head of resident doctors, told us that the lack of medical supplies and poor hygiene were now threatening the condition of those saved in emergency operations, some carried out along hospital corridors because the operating rooms were full.
“I think you can smell the bad smell coming from the wound?” Dr Fakher says to us, as another medic delicately replaces the bandage on a young man’s leg.
“This is a very big problem because all the patients we treated in the operations rooms are now (getting infected) and risk dying right here.”
An injured father and son in hospital
The wards are packed with the civilian victims caught up in Syria’s complex tribal and political violence – the worst since the toppling of the country’s dictator Bashar al Assad by fighters backed by Turkey and led by former Islamist Ahmed al Sharaa.
Among the victims is 21-year-old Hajar, who was nine months pregnant with her first baby when she was shot through both legs.
Medics managed to save her life but not her baby – a victim of this brutal outbreak of violence before even being born.
Doctors managed to save Hajar’s life but not her baby
A male nurse openly weeps in the corner of the ward where Hajar is laying immobile on a dirty hospital bed. Hajar’s bandages hold together her shattered legs and there’s blood still caked on her feet.
“She needs specialist operations which we cannot do right now,” a doctor explains.
Hajar is just one of the many casualties among the dozens crammed in this hospital, as well as the tens of thousands of others affected by what’s happened over the past 10 days of brutality in Sweida.
The UN estimates nearly 130,000 people have fled their homes. The death toll is still being calculated but is thought to be more than a thousand so far.
We have driven through multiple Druze checkpoints to get here. The Druze-dominated area is extremely edgy now and bunkered down behind sand chicanes and armed barricades.
Read more from Sky News:
Homes burning after mass pillaging in city
Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?
A Druze fighter with a flag representing the Druze faith
The cycle of tit-for-tat kidnappings and revenge attacks between Druze and Arab Bedoin tribes in the city quickly spiralled into an international crisis when witnesses said some government forces sent in as peacekeepers went on to join Bedoin tribes in the killing spree and robbing of the Druze minority.
Israeli forces, who had warned against any of the Syrian army operating in the area, intervened with airstrikes, killing hundreds of troops as well as civilians.
It was an act of aggression which the new Syrian president would later describe as pushing the country into a “dangerous phase” and threatening its stability.
An ambulance that was severely damaged by shelling
Days of anarchy
The Israeli bombings forced the government troops to withdraw and, in their absence, Druze militia demanding autonomy from Damascus, embarked on a rash of revenge attacks and kidnappings.
Days of anarchy followed with thousands of Arab fighters including Islamic extremists massing on the area, pillaging and looting mainly Druze homes and businesses and engaging in pitched battles with Druze militia as well as civilians defending their homes and families.
Shocking but mostly unverified social media posts showing executions and beheadings from both Druze and Arab accounts have fuelled the fear and fighting.
There are misinformation and disinformation propaganda campaigns – many by Islamists – which are inciting the violence and cementing divisions.
The beleaguered new Syrian leader thanked America and the UAE for brokering a ceasefire – but it is shaky and in its infancy, and there’s a massive trust deficit all round which it is tentatively plastering.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
This is so much more than a bloody sectarian crisis – and comes at a time when Syria is emerging from more than a decade of civil war and is economically broken.
The crisis is complex, multi-layered and drawing in others.
Anadolu Agency quoted the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan as warning that any attempt to divide Syria will be viewed as a threat to Turkish national security and lead to direct Turkish intervention.
These are words that will chill the many millions of Syrians desperate for peace.
:: Alex Crawford reports from Syria with camera operator Garwen McLuckie, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Syrian producers Mahmoud Mosa and Ahmed Rahhal.
World
Gaza food situation ‘worst it’s ever been’, charity says – as tank attack reportedly kills 12 at camp
An aid worker in Gaza has told Sky News the food situation in the enclave is “absolutely desperate” and “the worst it’s ever been”.
Her comments to chief presenter Mark Austin come amid fresh outcry over aid restrictions, with the UK joining 24 other countries to urge an immediate end to the war.
It also comes as at least 12 more Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded when tanks shelled a tent encampment in western Gaza City, according to health authorities.
Middle East latest: Key points from UK statement on Gaza
Medics, speaking early on Tuesday, said two shells were fired at tents housing displaced people from tanks positioned north of the Shati camp.
Israel hasn’t yet commented on the reports.
Rachael Cummings, humanitarian director for Save The Children, spoke to Sky News from Deir al Balah, a city where tens of thousands of people have sought refuge during repeated waves of mass displacement.
She said: “One of my colleagues said to me yesterday, ‘We are all walking together towards death’. And this is the situation now for people in Gaza.
“There is no food for their children, it’s absolutely desperate here.”
Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen. Pic: Reuters
“The markets are empty,” she said. “People may even have cash in their pockets yet they cannot buy bread [or] vegetables.
“My team have said to me, ‘There’s nothing in my house to feed my children, my children are crying all day, every day.”
Israel launched a ground assault on southern and eastern Deir al Balah for the first time on Monday after having issued an evacuation order.
Local medics said at least three people were killed when houses and mosques were hit by tank shelling.
Sources told Reuters news agency that Israel believes some of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas in October 2023 could be in the area.
Smoke rises during strikes amid the Israeli operation in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Ms Cummings’s remarks came as the UK and 24 other nations issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire.
The statement criticised aid distribution in Gaza, which is being managed by a US and Israel-backed organisation, Gaza Health Foundation (GHF).
Hundreds of people have reportedly been killed while trying to get food in recent weeks, both from GHF and UN convoys.
“The Israeli government’s aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity,” the joint statement said.
The 25 countries also called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of hostages captured by Hamas during the 7 October 2023 attacks.
Lammy promises £40m for Gaza
Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised £40m for humanitarian assistance in Gaza.
He told MPs: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to show that there must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state involving the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, in the security and governance of the area.
“Hamas can have no role in the governance of Gaza, nor use it as a launchpad for terrorism.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Lammy: ‘There must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state’
Addressing the foreign secretaries’ joint written statement, charity worker Liz Allcock – who works for Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) in Gaza – told Sky News: “While we welcome this, there have been statements in the past 21 months and nothing has changed.
“In fact, things have only got worse. And every time we think it can’t get worse, it does.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
“Without a reversal of the siege, the lack of supplies, the constant bombardment, the forced displacement, the killing, the militarisation of aid, we are going to collapse as a humanitarian response,” she said.
“And this would do a grave injustice to the 2.2 million people we’re trying to serve.
“An immediate and permanent ceasefire, and avenues for accountability in line with international law, is the minimum people here deserve.”
The war in Gaza started in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage.
More than 59,000 Palestinians have since been killed, with more than half being women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
In recent weeks hundreds of Palestinians have reportedly been killed while waiting for food and aid.
The Israeli military has blamed Hamas militants for fomenting chaos and endangering civilians.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike