F-16s are heading to Ukraine – but will they pose a credible threat to the Russian Air Force?
F-16s are on the way to Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden‘s approval of the move at the G7 conference will certainly provide Ukraine with some much-needed aerial firepower – but combat air power is heavily dependent on modern technology and some F-16s are vintage jets.
When the F-16 Fighting Falcon first flew in the late 1970s, it was a very light, agile and capable platform, and it became the most widely exported fighter jet in the world.
Notwithstanding the physical agility of the airframe and the impressive thrust-to-weight ratio of the F-16 aircraft, the combat capability of modern fighters is heavily dependent on the technology of its avionics.
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The radar is a key component of a fighter’s capability; as technology has enabled radars to see further, and with greater clarity, so have deception techniques matured.
A common fighter manta is “He who sees wins” – the earlier you see the enemy fighter the earlier you can get a missile in the air. In the Second World War, fine strips of aluminium were dispensed to confuse enemy radars, but modern stealth technology and a variety of ingenious electronic measures are now exploited to improve survivability.
What level of F-16 capability will Ukraine be offered?
Ukraine is highly unlikely to receive brand-new F-16s – they are too expensive, and the West will be very reluctant to risk high-end capability in this conflict.
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F-16 jets ‘major concern’ for Putin, Sean Bell says
But, older fighters have less capable radars, are not stealthy, and have older avionics. The Volkswagen Golf MK1 car was in production when the first F-16s were delivered – the latest incarnation (MK8) is still called a Golf, but the modern variant is packed full of modern technology and is a much more capable car.
Although older F-16s are still capable (like the Golf MK1), many nations are now looking to upgrade their fleet of F-16s with the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, thus making several “high mileage” F-16s potentially available.
However, like cars, as jets get older, so they become less reliable and become more heavily dependent on spares.
Read more:
What is the F16 fighter jet and why does Ukraine want it?
Ukraine is highly unlikely to receive brand-new F-16s
In addition to radar, modern fighters also need state-of-the-art electronic warfare, defensive aids, infrared sensors, link-16 datalinks, and a computer system to programme and deliver the latest generation of high-tech air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.
In addition, trained pilots and groundcrew, weapons, spares, ground planning facilities, intelligence, and a suite of supporting infrastructure are also required.
Will these weapons be provided to Ukraine?
Modern air-to-air missiles married to a modern F-16 radar would pose a credible threat to modern Russian fighters, but anything less risks emboldening the Russian Air Force. The grave risk is that Ukraine “gets what it asked for” – an F-16 capability – only to find that reality falls well short of expectation.
Notwithstanding the tactical challenges, the G7 announcement was incredibly important for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin had almost certainly judged that the West’s appetite to continue supporting the war might wane at the year’s end, so despite the dismissive rhetoric, the decision to help Ukraine develop its own long-term combat air capability will be a major setback and grave concern for Mr Putin.
World
‘Daylight robbery of land – sanctioned by Israeli authorities’: Inside ‘terrorised’ West Bank village
What’s unfolding in the Palestinian village of Ras al-Ayn is more than a land dispute – according to human rights groups, it is the systematic displacement of an entire community.
Activists on the ground report a surge in violence and intimidation by Israeli settlers aimed at driving Palestinian families from their homes.
Footage captured by Rachel Abramovitz, a member of the group Looking The Occupation In The Eye, shows activists trying to block settlers from seizing control of the village centre.
Palestinians say they are being forced off their land by intimidation
“They gradually invade the community and expand. The goal is to terrorise people, to make them flee,” Ms Abramovitz said.
Our visit comes as Israel said it would establish 22 new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank – including new settlements and the legalisation of outposts already built without government authorisation.
The settler movement traces back to 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the Golan Heights during the Six-Day War.
Settlements began as small, often unofficial outposts. Over the decades, they’ve grown into towns and cities with state-provided infrastructure, roads, and security.
Today, 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, in communities considered illegal under international law – a designation Israel disputes.
Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent 19-month military bombardment of Gaza, violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has escalated sharply.
According to the UN and human rights groups such as B’Tselem, the overwhelming number of these attacks are carried out with impunity, further pressuring Palestinians to flee.
Salaam Ka’abneh says they face daily assaults
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Nine of Gazan doctor’s children killed
Salaam Ka’abneh, a lifelong resident of the Bedouin village of Ras al-Ayn in the Jordan Valley, says his family has lived on the land for more than 50 years. He fears they could be forced to leave.
Mr Ka’abneh said: “About a year and four months ago, settlers cut off our access to water and grazing land. They also stole more than 2,000 sheep from us in the Tel Al-Auja compound. We face daily assaults, day and night.
“They terrorise our children and women, throwing stones, firing bullets, and creating chaos with their vehicles. We are under siege. We no longer have access to pasture or water, and our sheep remain caged.”
Footage from the area shows settlers driving freely through Palestinian communities, some armed.
While the Israeli army officially governs Area C of the West Bank, where Ras al-Ayn is located, human rights groups say settler violence almost always goes unchecked.
Under international law, an occupying power is obligated to protect civilians under its control. But Sarit Michaeli of B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights group, says Israel is failing to uphold its responsibility.
“Israel doesn’t hold settlers accountable. On the contrary – settlers know that if they act violently, they’ll receive support from all branches of the government. There’s full impunity. In fact, it’s more accurate to say settlers function as a branch of the government.
“It’s daylight robbery of land – sanctioned by Israeli authorities,” Michaeli continues.
“And it amounts to ethnic cleansing – displacing large parts of the Palestinian population to make the area available for Israeli use.”
To understand more, we travelled to a hilltop outpost occupied by settlers overlooking Salaam’s village. But we did not get far. Our car was quickly surrounded, and the atmosphere turned hostile.
Salaam Ka’abneh and his family has lived on the land for more than 50 years
It was clear: we were not welcome. We left with no answers but with a deeper understanding of the fear these Palestinian communities live with daily.
International pressure is growing. The British government recently imposed sanctions on several settlers, including Daniella Weiss.
Read more from Sky News:
Key events since 7 October Hamas-led attack
Hamas’ Gaza chief ‘eliminated’
Known as the ‘godmother’ of the settler movement, Weiss has been a key figure in expanding settlements across the West Bank.
“There will never be a Palestinian state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Never,” Weiss declares. “We annex with facts on the ground. The goal is to block any possibility of a Palestinian state in the heartland of Israel.
“If Netanyahu wanted to stop me, he could.”
The Israeli government calls allegations of ethnic cleansing “baseless and without foundation”.
But human rights groups argue that what’s happening in the West Bank has gone far beyond creeping annexation.
Palestinian land is rapidly being consumed by settlements, military zones, and settler outposts – shrinking the space in which a future Palestinian state might one day exist.
You can watch a Sky News special programme on the conflict in Gaza on TV and mobile, at 9pm UK time, on Thursday.
World
US trade court blocks Donald Trump from imposing sweeping global tariffs – claiming he ‘exceeded his authority’
World
Trump doubles down on Putin criticism – as Russia offers Ukraine a date and location for peace talks
Donald Trump has doubled down on his criticism of Vladimir Putin – adding he will know soon if the Russian leader is just “tapping” him along.
The US president told reporters at the White House that he believed his counterpart in Moscow may be intentionally delaying ceasefire talks, while he also expressed disappointment at heavy Russian bombing over the weekend.
While Mr Trump has so far stopped short of imposing sanctions – to avoid, he says, “screwing up” negotiations – he warned his stance could change.
Ukraine Q&A: Are we any closer to war ending?
The president said: “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little differently,” adding that he “can’t tell you” if Mr Putin wanted peace.
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
His comments in the Oval Office came minutes after Russia’s foreign minister announced that the Kremlin had offered Ukraine a second round of talks on 2 June in Istanbul.
Kyiv did not immediately respond to the proposal, which Sergei Lavrov said would see Moscow hand their proposals for a potential peace deal directly to Ukraine.
“We hope that all those who are sincerely, and not just in words, interested in the success of the peace process will support holding a new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul,” Mr Lavrov added.
Later on Wednesday, Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov said his government was “not against” further meetings, but called for Russia to deliver its memorandum to Kyiv beforehand.
Meanwhile, Mr Lavrov also hit out at Germany for agreeing to finance the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine, accusing Berlin of showing it is “already a participant in the war”.
However, German leader Friedrich Merz declined to say that his country would hand over the Taurus missiles that Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who was in Berlin on Wednesday – has long wanted.
Ukraine’s need for ammunition has become all the more urgent after Russia launched some of the largest aerial assaults of the war so far over the weekend.
Read more:
Would ‘smart’ missiles allow Ukraine to hit key bridge?
Lavrov accuses West of secrecy over strikes
Russia said it had downed 296 Ukrainian drones over 13 regions overnight, while Ukraine said it had struck several weapon production sites.
Kyiv, in turn, said Moscow had launched 88 drones and five ballistic missiles since Tuesday.
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