F-16s are heading to Ukraine – but will they pose a credible threat to the Russian Air Force?
F-16s are on the way to Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden‘s approval of the move at the G7 conference will certainly provide Ukraine with some much-needed aerial firepower – but combat air power is heavily dependent on modern technology and some F-16s are vintage jets.
When the F-16 Fighting Falcon first flew in the late 1970s, it was a very light, agile and capable platform, and it became the most widely exported fighter jet in the world.
Notwithstanding the physical agility of the airframe and the impressive thrust-to-weight ratio of the F-16 aircraft, the combat capability of modern fighters is heavily dependent on the technology of its avionics.
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The radar is a key component of a fighter’s capability; as technology has enabled radars to see further, and with greater clarity, so have deception techniques matured.
A common fighter manta is “He who sees wins” – the earlier you see the enemy fighter the earlier you can get a missile in the air. In the Second World War, fine strips of aluminium were dispensed to confuse enemy radars, but modern stealth technology and a variety of ingenious electronic measures are now exploited to improve survivability.
What level of F-16 capability will Ukraine be offered?
Ukraine is highly unlikely to receive brand-new F-16s – they are too expensive, and the West will be very reluctant to risk high-end capability in this conflict.
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F-16 jets ‘major concern’ for Putin, Sean Bell says
But, older fighters have less capable radars, are not stealthy, and have older avionics. The Volkswagen Golf MK1 car was in production when the first F-16s were delivered – the latest incarnation (MK8) is still called a Golf, but the modern variant is packed full of modern technology and is a much more capable car.
Although older F-16s are still capable (like the Golf MK1), many nations are now looking to upgrade their fleet of F-16s with the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, thus making several “high mileage” F-16s potentially available.
However, like cars, as jets get older, so they become less reliable and become more heavily dependent on spares.
Read more:
What is the F16 fighter jet and why does Ukraine want it?
Ukraine is highly unlikely to receive brand-new F-16s
In addition to radar, modern fighters also need state-of-the-art electronic warfare, defensive aids, infrared sensors, link-16 datalinks, and a computer system to programme and deliver the latest generation of high-tech air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.
In addition, trained pilots and groundcrew, weapons, spares, ground planning facilities, intelligence, and a suite of supporting infrastructure are also required.
Will these weapons be provided to Ukraine?
Modern air-to-air missiles married to a modern F-16 radar would pose a credible threat to modern Russian fighters, but anything less risks emboldening the Russian Air Force. The grave risk is that Ukraine “gets what it asked for” – an F-16 capability – only to find that reality falls well short of expectation.
Notwithstanding the tactical challenges, the G7 announcement was incredibly important for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin had almost certainly judged that the West’s appetite to continue supporting the war might wane at the year’s end, so despite the dismissive rhetoric, the decision to help Ukraine develop its own long-term combat air capability will be a major setback and grave concern for Mr Putin.
World
European allies not united on armed deployment in Ukraine as Macron announces ‘reassurance force’
Emmanuel Macron has announced a plan for a “reassurance force” with several countries in Ukraine – but not all European allies have backed the idea.
The French president said some nations disagreed on the proposed deployment of an armed force to back up an eventual peace deal in Ukraine, with only some wanting to take part.
“It is not unanimous,” he said during a news conference after the third summit of the so-called “coalition of the willing” on Thursday, with leaders meeting in Paris to coordinate their stance.
Latest: Plan for ‘reassurance force’ announced
But Mr Macron said France and the UK, who are driving the initiative, will work with Ukrainian counterparts to decide where the contingents could be deployed in Ukraine.
“We do not need unanimity to achieve it,” he said.
The summit hosting the leaders of nearly 30 countries, plus NATO and European Union chiefs, comes at a crucial point in the war, which has lasted more than three years.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer – who was also at the meeting – has said Vladimir Putin must be given a deadline to make progress on a Ukraine ceasefire.
Following the summit, the prime minister spoke at a news conference at the UK ambassador’s residence in Paris and accused the Russian president of “playing games” and “playing for time”.
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters that Vladimir Putin was ‘playing games’. Pic: Reuters
He told reporters he would like to see a peace deal in Ukraine develop in a matter of days and weeks instead of months.
When questioned about the “reassurance force”, Sir Keir said it was “designed to deter” Mr Putin and defend whatever peace deal is agreed.
He added: “This will require the engagement and support of the United States”.
Read more from Sky News:
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However, Mr Macron was more cautious, suggesting they may have to do without American backing. “We have to be prepared for a situation where perhaps they won’t join in,” he said.
While there were no details about which nations would contribute military assets, Sir Keir did confirm the coalition had “200 planners from 30 countries”.
Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke in Paris. Pic: AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a positive reaction to the summit, adding there were “a number of countries who are prepared – either through the air or with boots on the ground – to provide security guarantees to Ukraine”.
Sir Keir also confirmed that Parliament would “have a say” if British troops were deployed on a long-term basis.
Donald Trump has said he wants to broker a swift end to the war. But a series of bilateral talks between the US and the warring sides has yet to yield significant results.
Agreements brokered by the US to safeguard shipping in the Black Sea and to halt long-range strikes on energy infrastructure have been widely welcomed as a first step toward peace.
But Ukraine and Russia have disagreed over the details and accused each other of violating the deals.
Emmanuel Macron has said Russia is reinterpreting what was agreed in the Black Sea ceasefire talks – as he met with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Ukraine and Russia agreed to a tentative ceasefire brokered by the US involving the Black Sea and strikes on energy infrastructure on Tuesday.
But drone strikes were reported just hours after the US reached the deals separately with each country, with the mayor of the Ukrainian port city Mykolaiv saying there were emergency power outages after reports seven drones were downed over the region.
“I note today Russia is always tempted to reinterpret what we discuss and agree,” the French president said on Wednesday.
“While saying it wants peace, Russia continues to strike intensely the Ukrainian territory, including civilian targets. These strikes – we condemn them.”
Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelenskyy hug as they meet ahead of a peace and security conference in Paris. Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Secretary of state Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that the US will evaluate demands made by Russia after Moscow agreed “in principle” to the ceasefire.
Russia also accused Ukraine of targeting energy infrastructure in Crimea, Kursk and Bryansk but this has not been independently verified. Ukraine denied the claims.
Meanwhile, Russia launched its largest drone attack yet on Mr Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, according to the city’s military administration chief.
Macron announces further military support
As Mr Macron announced an additional $2bn of military support for Ukraine, he added that Russia cannot dictate the conditions for a lasting peace in Ukraine.
When questioned on whether sanctions on Russia should be lifted, Mr Macron said it is “much too early”.
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Black Sea ceasefire: Who benefits?
The French president also said that a proposed European armed force for possible deployment in Ukraine in tandem with an eventual peace deal could “respond” to a Russian attack if Moscow launched one.
At a news conference after the meeting of the two leaders, Mr Zelenskyy said that he expects the US will be able to ensure Vladimir Putin accepts a ceasefire.
“We believe America will be strong enough to lead Putin to accept an unconditional ceasefire,” he said.
Read more:
What is in the Black Sea ceasefire?
Moments that shaped Trump-Zelenskyy relationship
Ukraine war Q&A
President Zelenskyy’s trip to Paris comes ahead of a summit of European leaders on Ukraine and security on Thursday.
The so-called “coalition of the willing” nations that are allies of Ukraine will discuss options for a peacekeeping solution for the country after the war ends, with France and Britain leading efforts.
Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said on Wednesday that US-Ukraine ties were “back on track”.
In an interview with Reuters news agency, Andriy Yermak said two rounds of talks in Saudi Arabia gave Kyiv the chance to show US officials it is open to working with Donald Trump to end the war.
“I think we have great conversations with the Americans. I think we are back on track,” he said.
Relations appeared to hit a new low last month following a disastrous meeting between Mr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at the White House.
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