F-16s are heading to Ukraine – but will they pose a credible threat to the Russian Air Force?

Published

2 years ago

May 27, 2023

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F-16s are on the way to Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden‘s approval of the move at the G7 conference will certainly provide Ukraine with some much-needed aerial firepower – but combat air power is heavily dependent on modern technology and some F-16s are vintage jets.

When the F-16 Fighting Falcon first flew in the late 1970s, it was a very light, agile and capable platform, and it became the most widely exported fighter jet in the world.

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Notwithstanding the physical agility of the airframe and the impressive thrust-to-weight ratio of the F-16 aircraft, the combat capability of modern fighters is heavily dependent on the technology of its avionics.

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The radar is a key component of a fighter’s capability; as technology has enabled radars to see further, and with greater clarity, so have deception techniques matured.

A common fighter manta is “He who sees wins” – the earlier you see the enemy fighter the earlier you can get a missile in the air. In the Second World War, fine strips of aluminium were dispensed to confuse enemy radars, but modern stealth technology and a variety of ingenious electronic measures are now exploited to improve survivability.

What level of F-16 capability will Ukraine be offered?

Ukraine is highly unlikely to receive brand-new F-16s – they are too expensive, and the West will be very reluctant to risk high-end capability in this conflict.

But, older fighters have less capable radars, are not stealthy, and have older avionics. The Volkswagen Golf MK1 car was in production when the first F-16s were delivered – the latest incarnation (MK8) is still called a Golf, but the modern variant is packed full of modern technology and is a much more capable car.

Although older F-16s are still capable (like the Golf MK1), many nations are now looking to upgrade their fleet of F-16s with the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, thus making several “high mileage” F-16s potentially available.

However, like cars, as jets get older, so they become less reliable and become more heavily dependent on spares.

In addition to radar, modern fighters also need state-of-the-art electronic warfare, defensive aids, infrared sensors, link-16 datalinks, and a computer system to programme and deliver the latest generation of high-tech air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.

In addition, trained pilots and groundcrew, weapons, spares, ground planning facilities, intelligence, and a suite of supporting infrastructure are also required.

Will these weapons be provided to Ukraine?

Modern air-to-air missiles married to a modern F-16 radar would pose a credible threat to modern Russian fighters, but anything less risks emboldening the Russian Air Force. The grave risk is that Ukraine “gets what it asked for” – an F-16 capability – only to find that reality falls well short of expectation.

Notwithstanding the tactical challenges, the G7 announcement was incredibly important for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin had almost certainly judged that the West’s appetite to continue supporting the war might wane at the year’s end, so despite the dismissive rhetoric, the decision to help Ukraine develop its own long-term combat air capability will be a major setback and grave concern for Mr Putin.

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Drones and salami: How Putin is testing the West with Poland airspace violation

Published

8 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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Drones and salami: How Putin is testing the West with Poland airspace violation

The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning. How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.

The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.

The Kremlin is probing the West with gradual but steady escalation. A British Council building and an EU installation are bombed in Kyiv; a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS is jammed.

On their own each provocation produces nothing more than rhetoric from the West – but new lines are crossed and Russia is emboldened.

Ukraine war latest: NATO chief sends message to Putin

Putin is good at this.

He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.

He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.

They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.

Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.

But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.

Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.

So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.

Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.

If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?

Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.

Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.

There is more Europe could do.

It could stop buying Russian energy, which it is still astonishingly importing – more than 20 billion euros a year at the last count.

It could use its massive economic advantage (20 times that of Russia’s, and that was before the war) to do more to fund Ukraine’s defence.

While it continues to do neither, expect more excruciating slices of the salami to come.

World

Riot police clash with ‘Block Everything’ protesters in Paris

Published

13 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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Riot police clash with 'Block Everything' protesters in Paris

Riot police have clashed with protesters in Paris after they took to the streets in response to calls to ‘Block Everything’ over discontent with the French government.

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of the French capital and other cities, including Marseille and Montpellier, in response to the online ‘Bloquons Tout’ campaign, which is urging people to strike, block roads, and other public services.

The government has deployed more than 80,000 officers to respond to the unrest, which has seen 200 arrested nationwide so far, according to police, and comes on the same day the new prime minister is being sworn in.

Demonstrators were seen rolling bins into the middle of roads to stop cars, while police rushed to remove the makeshift blockades as quickly as possible.

Tear gas was used by police outside Paris‘s Gare du Nord train station, where around 1,000 gathered, clutching signs declaring Wednesday a public holiday.

Others in the city blocked the entrance to a high school where firefighters were forced to remove burnt objects from a barricade.

Elsewhere in the country, traffic disruptions were reported on major roads in Marseille, Montpellier, Nantes, and Lyon.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau told reporters a group of protesters had torched a bus in the Breton city of Rennes.

Fourth prime minister in a year

The ‘Block Everything’ rallies come amid spiralling national debt and are similar to the Yellow Vest movement that broke out over tax increases during President Emmanuel Macron’s first term.

‘Bloquons tout’ was first spearheaded online by right-wing groups in May but has since been embraced by the left and far left, experts say.

On Monday, former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a vote of no confidence, and was replaced by Sebastien Lecornu at the Hotel Matignon on Wednesday afternoon, becoming the fourth person in the job in just 12 months.

A teacher, Christophe Lalande, taking part in the Paris protests, told reporters at the scene: “Bayrou was ousted, [now] his policies must be eliminated.”

Elsewhere, union member Amar Lagha said: “This day is a message to all the workers of this country: that there is no resignation, the fight continues, and a message to this government that we won’t back down, and if we have to die, we’ll die standing.”

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Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line with Qatar strike

Published

13 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line with Qatar strike

A lot has changed in Qatar in just 24 hours.

Israel brought its war with Hamas to the streets of Doha and people can’t quite believe it.

The sound of explosions on Tuesday afternoon in a residential neighbourhood has shattered the sense of peace and security that defines life here.

Israel-Hamas latest – Qatar attack puts talks in doubt

It’s also shattered the critical sense of trust needed in these fragile ceasefire talks.

Qatar has played a critical role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas for the last two years and those diplomatic efforts have been blown apart by this unprecedented attack.

Qatar has reacted with absolute fury and it has shocked and angered other Gulf neighbours, who, like Qatar, stake their reputation on being hubs of regional peace and stability.

Donald Trump is clearly unhappy, too. A strike on Qatar – a key American ally and home to Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military hub in the Middle East – is seen as a dangerous escalation.

There’s no suggestion that permission was sought by Israel from its own closest ally in Washington.

And there’s little clarity if they were even forewarned by the IDF, as the White House said it learned of the attack from its own military.

Donald Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was then tasked with alerting Qatar immediately, but by this point, it was too late.

According to Qatar’s foreign ministry, that call came 10 minutes after the first explosion was heard in Doha.

It’s clear Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line here.

Qatar plays a pivotal role on the international stage, punching well above its diplomatic weight for a country of its size.

For decades, it has hosted negotiations in a number of conflicts, providing a safe haven for warring parties to hold talks.

Arguably, far more is achieved in Doha’s many five-star hotels than on any battlefield.

But there was never any sense that you were in danger here.

During the chaotic evacuation of Afghanistan in August 2021, I interviewed the Taliban in Doha.

It was a constructive and civil interview where their international leader presented their position to the world on Sky News.

It was vital information and there was never any sense we were at risk in meeting to talk here.

There is so much at stake in the Israel-Hamas war.

More than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed, children are starving in Gaza and 48 Israeli hostages have not been returned home.

What was Israel thinking, carrying out this attack? And was it worth it?

They claim it was a “precise strike”, but none of the Hamas leadership were taken out as they claimed was their objective.

Five lower-ranking officials were killed along with a member of Qatar’s security forces. What it has done is left any hope of ceasefire talks in tatters.

For many, this was a huge miscalculation by Benjamin Netanyahu.