IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at an IBM facility in Poughkeepsie, New York, on Oct. 6, 2022. IBM announced $20 billion in investments during President Biden’s visit that will go toward research and development and the manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing in the Hudson Valley.
Dana Ullman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
IBM isn’t often described as a hot company. But in a year that saw investors abandon all major tech stocks, Big Blue was in the green.
The Nasdaq is closing out its worst year since 2008. High gas prices, soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady pace of rate increases have punished growth stocks and favored more mature, less volatile names that are viewed as more recession-resistant.
Tech names that thrived during the Covid days suffered the most as the economy reopened and consumers returned to many of their old habits.
Among U.S. tech companies valued at $50 billion or more, IBM was one of only two to generate positive returns in 2022. As of Friday’s close, the stock was up 6% for the year. The other gainer is VMware, which is up 5% because it agreed in May to be acquired by Broadcom for $61 billion.
While Meta, Amazon and Tesla have been pummeled, investors turned to 111-year-old IBM, betting on its stable earnings, alongside energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, health-care names including Merck and industrials Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin.
IBM beats Big Tech in 2022
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IBM is “trading well above its historical range,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. The firm has a hold rating on the stock.
Nobody will mistake IBM for a growth stock. Expansion is consistently in the single digits, and last year the company spun off Kyndryl, its managed infrastructure services business, into a separate publicly traded entity. That cut head count by about 90,000.
But IBM generated $752 million in free cash flow in the latest quarter, up 25% from a year earlier, and paid out $1.5 billion in dividends. Third-quarter earnings and revenue both topped estimates, and the company raised its forecast for the full year.
Crawford Investment Counsel in Atlanta, which focuses on income and dividends, looked at IBM in 2016 and concluded that it would be too early for a major investment, said Aaron Foresman, an equity analyst at the firm.
‘Much closer to their vision’
Crawford’s thesis changed in 2019, after IBM bought faster-growing Red Hat for $34 billion. The firm, which today has $6.7 billion under management, boosted its IBM stake from $2 million to $30 million and kept buying until its holdings reached $109 million.
IBM took a hybrid approach to the cloud under CEO Arvind Krishna, who succeeded Ginni Rometty at the helm in 2020. After struggling to gain scale as a cloud infrastructure provider, the company bet that enterprises would use on-premises data center infrastructure as well as the public cloud, rather than relying entirely on one approach or the other.
“Three years later, it’s much closer to their vision than everything on public cloud,” Foresman said. His firm sold 3% of its shares in the second and third quarter of this year.
Consulting remains a huge part of IBM’s business, accounting for one-third of revenue. In that realm, IBM partners with the big cloud providers, rather than strictly competing with them. The company has a backlog of business with Microsoft worth more than $1 billion, and an even bigger one with Amazon, Krishna said in a conversation with RBC CEO Dave McKay in November.
IBM also made technological advances in 2022, introducing the z16 mainframe computer. When a new mainframe hits, many clients upgrade. That leads to greater hardware revenue and highly profitable transaction processing software to run on the machines. IBM’s prior mainframe boom cycle started in September 2019.
While IBM stayed away from any splashy high-priced acquisitions this year, it announced some smaller deals to enhance certain capabilities. Earlier this month, IBM agreed to buy Octo, a consulting company based in Virginia that targets government agencies. Terms weren’t disclosed. It also absorbed consulting companies Dialexa and Sentaca this year.
Foresman described the purchases as an appropriate use of capital and “so small that they’re not necessarily disclosing transaction multiples.”
Still, Krishna recognizes that the economic backdrop isn’t ideal. He said in October that higher prices have led to “some caution creeping into the conversations” in Europe, where the company has to prepare for a downturn. In the Americas, where IBM gets about 53% of revenue, the business climate is “very robust,” he said.
The Bernstein analysts said the stock’s direction from here might simply ride on the state of the economy, rather than any major catalyst inside the company.
“Given its defensive characteristics and historical performance, we believe that IBM is likely to fare well if we continue to have pressured markets, and likely to lag major indices if we enter a recovery period,” they wrote.
IBM’s model through 2024 calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth, translating into free cash flow growth in the high single digits.
That’s good enough for investors who look for safety in their equity bets.
“Combined with mid-single-digit revenue growth, a couple points better than that on EPS and a 5% dividend yield is — you know, that’s not a home run, but it’s well within our expectations for what we’re trying to accomplish,” Foresman said.
The Trump administration has floated a plan to trim about $6 billion from the budget of NASA, while allocating $1 billion of remaining funds to Mars-focused initiatives, aligning with an ambition long held by Elon Musk and his rocket maker SpaceX.
A copy of the discretionary budget posted to the NASA website on Friday said that the change focuses NASA’s funding on “beating China back to the Moon and on putting the first human on Mars.”
NASA also said it will need to “streamline” its workforce, information technology services, NASA Center operations, facility maintenance, and construction and environmental compliance activities, and terminate multiple “unaffordable” missions, while reducing scientific missions for the sake of “fiscal responsibility.”
Janet Petro, NASA’s acting administrator, said in an agency-wide email on Friday that the proposed lean budget, which would cut about 25% of the space agency’s funding, “reflects the administration’s support for our mission and sets the stage for our next great achievements.”
Petro urged NASA employees to “persevere, stay resilient, and lean into the discipline it takes to do things that have never been done before — especially in a constrained environment,” according to the memo, which was obtained by CNBC. She acknowledged the budget would “require tough choices,” and that some of NASA’s “activities will wind down.”
The document on NASA’s website said it’s allocating more than $7 billion for moon exploration and “introducing $1 billion in new investments for Mars-focused programs.”
SpaceX, which is already among the largest NASA and Department of Defense contractors, has long sought to launch a manned mission to Mars. The company says on its website that its massive Starship rocket is designed to “carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond.”
Musk, who is the founder and CEO of SpaceX, has a central role in President Donald Trump’s administration, leading an effort to slash the size, spending and capacity of the federal government, and influencing regulatory changes through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Musk, who frequently makes aggressive and incorrect projections for his companies, said in 2020 that he was “highly confident” that SpaceX would land humans on Mars by 2026.
Petro highlighted in her memo that under the discretionary budget, NASA would retire the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket, the Orion spacecraft and Gateway programs.
It would also put an end to its green aviation spending and to its Mars Sample Return (MSR) Program, which sought to use rockets and robotic systems to “collect and send samples of Martian rocks, soils and atmosphere back to Earth for detailed chemical and physical analysis,” according to a website for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Some of the biggest reductions at NASA, should the budget get approved, would hit the space agency’s space science, Earth science and mission support divisions.
Petro didn’t name any specific aerospace and defense contractors in her agency-wide email. However SpaceX, ULA and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin are positioned to continue to conduct launches in the absence of the SLS. Boeing is currently the prime contractor leading the SLS program.
“This is far from the first time NASA has been asked to adapt, and your ability to deliver, even under pressure, is what sets NASA apart,” she wrote.
President Trump’s nominee to lead NASA, tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, still has to be approved by the U.S. Senate. His nomination was advanced out of the Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday.
Chinese bargain retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect Friday.
In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.
Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.
The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. Trump briefly suspended the de minimis rule in February before reinstating the provision days later as customs officials struggled to process and collect tariffs on a mountain of low-value packages.
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The end of de minimis, as well as Trump’s new 145% tariffs on China, has forced Temu to raise prices, suspend its aggressive online advertising push and now alter the selection of goods available to American shoppers to circumvent higher levies.
A Temu spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that all sales in the U.S. are now handled by local sellers and said they are fulfilled “from within the country.” Temu said pricing for U.S. shoppers “remains unchanged.”
“Temu has been actively recruiting U.S. sellers to join the platform,” the spokesperson said. “The move is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and grow their businesses.”
Before the change, shoppers who attempted to purchase Temu products shipped from China were confronted with “import charges” of between 130% and 150%. The fees often cost more than the individual item and more than doubled the price of many orders.
Temu advertises that local products have “no import charges” and “no extra charges upon delivery.”
The company, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, has gradually built up its inventory in the U.S. over the past year in anticipation of escalating trade tensions and the removal of de minimis.
Shein, which has also benefited from the loophole, moved to raise prices last week. The fast-fashion retailer added a banner at checkout that says, “Tariffs are included in the price you pay. You’ll never have to pay extra at delivery.”
Many third-party sellers on Amazon rely on Chinese manufacturers to source or assemble their products. The company’s Temu competitor, called Amazon Haul, has relied on de minimis to ship products priced at $20 or less directly from China to the U.S.
Amazon said Tuesday following a dustup with the White House that had it considered showing tariff-related costs on Haul products ahead of the de minimis cutoff but that it has since scrapped those plans.
Prior to Trump’s second term in office, the Biden administration had also looked to curtail the provision. Critics of the de minimis provision argue that it harms American businesses and that it facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances because, they say, the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.
Jeff Bezos, founder and executive chairman of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post, takes the stage during The New York Times’ annual DealBook Summit, at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City, Dec. 4, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares in the company over the next year, according to a financial filing on Friday.
Bezos, who stepped down as CEO in 2021 but remains Amazon’s top shareholder, is selling the shares as part of a trading plan adopted on March 4, the filing states. The stake would be worth about $4.8 billion at the current price.
The disclosure follows Amazon’s first-quarter earnings report late Thursday. While profit and revenue topped estimates, the company’s forecast for operating income in the current quarter came in below Wall Street’s expectations.
The results show that Amazon is bracing for uncertainty related to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. The company landed in the crosshairs of the White House this week over a report that Amazon planned to show shoppers the cost of the tariffs. Trump personally called Bezos to complain, and Amazon clarified that no such change was coming.
Bezos previously offloaded about $13.5 billion worth of Amazon shares last year, marking his first sale of company stock since 2021.
Since handing over the Amazon CEO role to Andy Jassy, Bezos has spent more of his time on his space exploration company, Blue Origin, and his $10 billion climate and biodiversity fund. He’s used Amazon share sales to help fund Blue Origin, as well as the Day One Fund, which he launched in September 2018 to provide education in low-income communities and combat homelessness.