Much more than just Vlad and Springer: Meet the Blue Jays’ under-the-radar mashers
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Jorge CastilloOct 27, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
Four years ago, Toronto Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins received a call from Los Angeles Dodgers vice president of player development, Will Rhymes, his boss at the time, with good news: The organization wanted to promote him to a minor league hitting coordinator role. It was an encouraging step forward after one season as hitting coach for the High-A Great Lakes Loons. And it never happened because the Minnesota Twins called him the next day asking to interview him for their hitting coach vacancy with the big league club — three rungs above the Midwest League. He was 31 years old at the time. He got the job.
“I was pretty shocked,” Popkins said.
Popkins, hired in Nov. 2021, oversaw Twins hitters for three years, helping guide an offense that ranked 11th in wRC+ and 13th in runs scored over the stretch despite major injuries to key players. Then he was made a scapegoat for the team’s collapse out of postseason contention and fired after the 2024 season. His unemployment lasted less than three weeks before the Blue Jays plucked him in October.
A year later, the Blue Jays advanced to the World Series as heavy underdogs against the organization that gave him his first coaching opportunity. He has molded the Toronto offense into an unlikely juggernaut — it finished fourth in the majors in runs scored during the regular season and has been the best group this postseason. The Blue Jays make the most contact in the majors and strike out the least. They frustrate pitchers by driving up pitch counts with keen discipline and an annoying knack for fouling off pitches.
Popkins, working with assistant hitting coaches Hunter Mense and Lou Iannotti, has guided the group with one overarching message: Every hitter has different strengths and weaknesses, so let’s play to those. Players say an identity isn’t forced on them.
“I think overall our lineup’s won in different ways every single day this year,” Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho said. “There’s not one way to kind of describe us. We grind out pitchers. We do everything we can to kind of help our team win. Doesn’t matter if it’s a long ball or single you to death.”
Popkins asked players to apply different approaches to attack different pitch mixes and make themselves unpredictable. He told them to continue making contact, as the last-place 2024 Blue Jays did, but to avoid making contact just to make contact in advantage counts. He emphasized sprinkling in some slug into their at-bats when they’ve earned a good count.
“I just think our one through nine is tough to get through,” Popkins said. “There’s not a lot of breathing room there. You know, a lot of lineups, you can usually find about three hitters in there you can just really attack, go after. There’s not a lot of battery that’s expended when that happens. And here you have to grind through one through nine.”
That one through nine this season has featured three stars — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette (when healthy) — and a cast of under-the-radar players who embody the 2025 Blue Jays.
Here are five who have supplemented the big names with invaluable contributions.

What you need to know: Barger, the Opening Day shortstop for Triple-A Buffalo this season, was called up to the majors in mid-April and stuck. Splitting time between third base and right field, the 25-year-old former sixth-round pick batted .243 with 21 home runs and a .756 OPS in 135 games. He has been even better in the postseason with a .300 batting average, three home runs and a .953 OPS in 45 plate appearances — mostly against right-handed pitchers. It’s the kind of production he dreamed about growing up playing on the baseball field his father built for him in the family’s backyard near Tampa, Florida.
Signature October moment (so far): If the Blue Jays dethrone the Dodgers, Barger’s pinch-hit grand slam in Game 1 — and the story behind his sleeping accommodations — will be remembered in Canada for a long time.
ADDISON BARGER
PINCH-HIT
GRAND SLAM#WORLDSERIES pic.twitter.com/REg58MNosp— MLB (@MLB) October 25, 2025
The blast — the first pinch-hit grand slam in World Series history — was the gut punch in Toronto’s nine-run sixth inning en route to a blowout win. Barger had rushed home to Florida after the American League Championship Series to join his wife as she gave birth to their third child — and didn’t have a place to stay when he returned for the World Series. After Game 1, Blue Jays outfielder Davis Schneider revealed that Barger had crashed the night before on a pullout couch in the living room of his hotel suite overlooking the field at Rogers Centre. It wasn’t the best night’s sleep, and it didn’t matter.
Popkins’ take: “He’s explosive, man. Everything, he does it 100%. Swinging, running, throwing. At any point he can completely flip the game upside down with just his ability. He’s aggressive. He plays the game a lot more than you would think with that profile.”

What you need to know: Clement has found a home in Toronto after struggling through his first two big league seasons with the Cleveland Guardians and Athletics. The infielder had his best season in 2025, batting .277 with a career-high 3.2 fWAR in 157 games and was named a Gold Glove finalist as both a third baseman and utilityman. He has used the approach to rocket his production to a star level in October with a .429/.442/.592 slash line, starting in each of Toronto’s 13 playoff games. Clement has a hit in 11 of the 13 games, and multiple hits in seven games.
“He’s probably my favorite player,” Blue Jays reliever Tommy Nance said. “He’s old school. He grinds. He’s gritty. I love the way he plays defense and the way that he takes at-bats.”
An ultra-aggressive hitter, Clement had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate and the 203rd lowest walk rate among 215 players with at least 400 plate appearances during the regular season. He leads all hitters in the postseason with a 57.7% first-pitch swing percentage. His 63.5% overall swing percentage is the highest among the two remaining teams and third in the playoffs.
Signature October moment (so far): Before Barger clubbed the first pinch-hit grand slam in World Series history, Clement gave the Blue Jays their first lead in the Fall Classic with a go-ahead single off Emmet Sheehan to ignite the nine-run barrage in the sixth inning. The Blue Jays never looked back.
Ernie Clement drives a go-ahead single! #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/C72nJKL2c4
— MLB (@MLB) October 25, 2025
Popkins’ take: “Clement is a dog in every essence of the word. He could have one hand — a broken hand, broken knee, It doesn’t matter. He’ll get up there and he’ll find a way to put the barrel on the ball. He’s been tremendous. It is a pleasure to watch him play the game every day. He plays it the exact way I would expect everyone to play this game. He’s beyond special in that regard.”

What you need to know: Kirk, a two-time All-Star, is the most accomplished of this group, but he was never projected for such heights. Generously listed at 5-foot-8, 245 pounds, Kirk signed for just $7,500 out of Mexico. He wasn’t widely considered a top-100 prospect until after making his major league debut in 2020. By 2022, he was an All-Star and an integral part of the team’s young core with Guerrero and Bichette. He was rewarded for his ascension with a five-year, $58 million contract in March that will keep him under team control through 2030.
Kirk was a staple in the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup during the regular season, slashing .282/.438/.421 with 15 home runs and embodying the Blue Jays grind-it-out, contact-first mindset.
“He’s unbelievable,” outfielder Myles Straw said. “The contact skills, the ability to hit the ball hard. His knowledge behind the plate. His ability behind the plate. He does it on both sides of the ball. Whenever you got a guy at third, less than one out, you know that, I would say 98% of the time, that run’s going to score. So you always feel good with Kirky at the plate.”
Signature October moment (so far): The Blue Jays won 94 games and the AL East this season, but they entered the division series against the New York Yankees as underdogs. That changed with a 10-1 rout in Game 1. Kirk helped set the tone: After hitting home runs in Game 161 and Game 162 to help seal the AL East title, Kirk continued where he left off with two solo shots.
Game 161: HR
Game 162: 2 HR#ALDS Game 1: 2 HRAlejandro Kirk is on a tear! pic.twitter.com/qNEd19DfJ0
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

What you need to know: Lukes didn’t make his major league debut until his age-28 season in 2023. It took 10 seasons in the minors, but he finally became a big league regular this year. He forced his way into the Blue Jays’ plans — and helped the club overcome Anthony Santander‘s long absence — by posting a .730 OPS with 12 home runs in 135 games.
Signature October moment (so far): Lukes delivered a two-run double with the bases loaded in a four-run seventh inning in Game 1 of the ALDS. Lukes also made a diving catch in right field to rob Jazz Chisholm Jr. of extra bases in the win. The all-around performance helped set the tone for Toronto in October.
Nathan Lukes!
The @BlueJays have scored 3 runs in the 7th! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/02W6rQUQk9
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
NATHAN LUKES GETS THERE! 😱 pic.twitter.com/pxjPyFoTdK
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Popkins’ take: “Battle tested. He’s an older guy. I like to say those guys simply have to do twice as much to have the credit. And he finally got an opportunity here to prove that he’s been a good hitter his whole life. And he’s shown that.”

Daulton Varsho
What you need to know: A former catcher, Varsho not only converted to the outfield full time when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks before the 2023 season, he has become one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. At the plate, the 5-8 left-handed hitter cracked 20 home runs with an .833 OPS despite injuries limiting him to 71 games this season.
“I just think with Daulton, he’s learned to kind of slow the moment down,” Springer said. “He develops a plan before the game with Pop and Lou and Hunter and he likes to stick with it. And I think as a hitter, any time you can have some confidence in what you’re doing. You trust your pregame prep. It’s obviously starting to show.”
Varsho said he goes to the plate looking to hit a groundball back to the pitcher every time. Springer joked it’s not the approach, but it typifies the diverse approaches Blue Jays hitters present to opponents.
Signature October moment (so far): Before Barger hit that pinch-hit grand slam and before Clement supplied that go-ahead single in Game 1, Varsho drew first blood with a tying two-run home run off the previously dominant Blake Snell. It was the first home run Snell had given up in seven starts, the first home run he had given up to a left-handed hitter this season and the first home run he had given up to a left-handed hitter on a four-seam fastball since June 2, 2024. The blast was also the Blue Jays’ first in a World Series since Joe Carter’s iconic walk-off, championship-winning shot 32 years earlier.
DAULTON VARSHO TIES UP #WORLDSERIES GAME 1! pic.twitter.com/VncyZk97ed
— MLB (@MLB) October 25, 2025
Popkins’ take: “He’s electric. Twitchy. He’s a little Sonic the Hedgehog out there in center field. You’ll see a ball about 100 feet and you’ll see him kind of crouch down and close that gap. Another guy who’s just extremely dangerous in the box. You just never know when he’s going to pop one off.”
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Sports
CFP chair steps down amid Baylor allegations
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2 hours agoon
November 13, 2025By
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Baylor athletic director and College Football Playoff chairman Mack Rhoades is stepping away from both roles for personal reasons.
CFP executive director Rich Clark told ESPN on Thursday that Rhoades “will step down from his role with the committee at this time for personal reasons.” The CFP likely will try to replace Rhoades and will work on naming a new chair.
Rhoades told ESPN that he initiated the leave from his Baylor role but declined to explain why.
Baylor told ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg that the university received allegations involving Rhoades on Monday. The allegations do not involve Title IX, student welfare or NCAA rules and do not involve the football program, indicating it is a separate incident from Rhoades’ alleged altercation with a football player during a September game.
The CFP typically requires athletic directors on the selection committee to be active, “sitting” athletic directors. The 12-person group was already one member short this season after committee member Randall McDaniel also stepped away last month for personal reasons.
Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek has been nominated as the new CFP committee chair, while Utah athletic director Mark Harlan has been nominated to replace Rhoades on the committee, a source told ESPN. The CFP management committee, which is made up of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, has to approve both moves.
Baylor had previously confirmed multiple reports of an internal investigation into an alleged confrontation Rhoades had with tight end Michael Trigg about the color of the shirt he was wearing during the Bears‘ Sept. 20 game against Arizona State. The school had issued a release saying the incident was “thoroughly reviewed and investigated in accordance with University policies, appropriate actions were taken and the matter is now closed.”
Jovan Overshown and Cody Hall will serve as Baylor’s co-interim athletic directors, a school spokesman told Rittenberg. Overshown is the school’s deputy athletic director and chief operating officer, and Hall is Baylor’s executive senior associate athletic director for internal administration and chief financial officer.
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Week 12 preview: A wide-open ACC title race, key matchups and more
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3 hours agoon
November 13, 2025By
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The marathon has now become a sprint. Three weeks remain in the regular season and the chaos that has made this one of the more intriguing college football seasons in recent memory is set to deliver a thrilling, potentially chaotic final stretch.
Only three undefeated teams remain — Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M have all proven to be not just the cream of the crop but likely College Football Playoff shoo-ins, while behind them, a slew of teams are teetering on a thin line between being in or out.
This week features four ranked matchups that could shift the playoff picture dramatically. No. 9 Notre Dame’s margin for error is zero as it faces a 7-2 Pittsburgh team that is also eyeing a playoff spot — or according to Pat Narduzzi, the ACC championship. Iowa had its dreams dashed by Oregon last week, but now it’ll be USC which faces the No. 21 Hawkeyes in Los Angeles, knowing that if it wins out, USC will likely punch its ticket to its first CFP.
Meanwhile, two-loss, No. 10 Texas has surged back into the playoff picture, only to be faced with having to beat No. 5 Georgia in Athens this week. You can say the same thing about the two-loss, 11th-ranked Sooners; Oklahoma’s own outside shot at a playoff will require a win against No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.
Buckle up. — Paolo Uggetti
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Texas-Georgia | Key matchups
ACC title race | Quotes of the week

What have Texas, Georgia done well in conference play?
Texas: Texas and Arch Manning appeared to have found a groove in the play-action game, completing 86% of such throws, on 12.1 yards per attempt with three TDs and no interceptions against Vanderbilt versus 64% completion and 7.2 yards per play in the season’s first eight games, according to ESPN Analytics. Manning has eclipsed 300 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past two games, becoming the first Texas QB to do that since Sam Ehlinger in 2018.
Behind an improved offensive line, the Texas offense is much more efficient, and coach Steve Sarkisian praised the growth and maturity of Manning running the offense. But the defense, meanwhile, has struggled as of late. After allowing just 11.3 points per game in the first seven games, they’ve allowed 30 points in back-to-back games. The pass defense has been particularly leaky, allowing 382 yards to Mississippi State and 365 to Vanderbilt. — Dave Wilson
Georgia: Georgia’s defense was its shortcoming earlier this season, but the Bulldogs have played better lately on that side of the ball. After struggling to get off the field on third downs, Florida went only 2-for-11 on third down in Georgia’s 24-20 victory on Nov. 1. Last week, after giving up a touchdown to Mississippi State on its opening possession, the Bulldogs settled down and had three sacks in a 41-21 win. Last season, Georgia defeated Texas twice: 30-15 in Austin in the regular season and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game.
Defense was the primary reason the Bulldogs won both of those games: They had 13 sacks combined and allowed the Longhorns to rush for fewer than 35 yards in each game. The Longhorns were only 2-for-15 on third down in the first loss. Georgia needs to continue to be disruptive on defense, shut down the running game again and get pressure on Manning to get him out of rhythm. — Mark Schlabach
What’s at stake in each matchup?
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Iowa-USC: Despite getting dominated on the ground by Notre Dame to the tune of 306 yards in Week 8, USC has not gone away. It only has one conference loss — a two-point heartbreaker against Illinois earlier in the season — and now find itself with a very clear mandate: Win out and the Trojans can all but guarantee the program’s first ever College Football Playoff appearance.
The first obstacle in front of them is Iowa, which comes to Los Angeles after watching its own Big Ten and playoff chances evaporate in a close loss to Oregon. The Hawkeyes could not be more stylistically different than the Trojans and, like they did against Oregon, will try to slow down and muddy the game to their liking. If USC can’t establish a good rhythm on offense, it will have to try and beat Iowa at its own game.
Lincoln Riley’s team has one of the most effective offenses in the nation, leading to at least 30 points scored in all but one game this season. That happened against Nebraska a few weeks ago, but USC was still able to pull out a very Big Ten win with its defense. Chances are, the Trojans will be forced to do the same this Saturday if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. — Uggetti
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Notre Dame-Pitt: Saturday’s showdown between No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Pitt is, oddly enough, bigger for the Irish than the Panthers. As Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi noted in his weekly news conference, Notre Dame can utterly demolish Pitt, but Narduzzi’s squad will still have a ready path to the ACC title game and, thus, a playoff berth. Of course, that’s not a scenario worth counting on, and a win for Pitt would do wonders to erase the stain of a September loss to West Virginia and prop up an ACC desperately in need of something positive to cling to.
For Notre Dame, however, the stakes are far clearer: Its past two games of the season are against awful Syracuse and Stanford teams, making this matchup against Pitt all but a win-and-you’re-in contest for the Irish. The committee has Notre Dame safely in the field now, and it’s hard to envision how a 10-2 Irish team could fall down the playoff ladder, so this is probably the only serious hurdle remaining. It is a hurdle, however, particularly given Pitt’s exceptional pass rush, and if the Panthers can pull off the upset, it would have the opposite effect on Notre Dame, likely ending the Irish’s playoff hopes. — David Hale
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Oklahoma-Alabama: Championships and CFP stakes are on the line when the Sooners travel to take on the Crimson Tide. But nobody has to tell either team that, particularly Alabama — which cost itself an at-large berth in the CFP last season after a disappointing 24-3 loss in Norman. During his news conference this week, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said he wants the players who played in that game to remember it because “our experiences help us be better the next time around.”
That certainly was the case earlier this year when Alabama beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee — two teams it also lost to a season ago. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said he has gotten some advice on this Sooners defense from a good friend — Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Texas beat Oklahoma last month, 23-6, and Manning threw for 166 yards and a touchdown and ran for 34 more. Alabama can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win and losses by Georgia and Texas A&M.
As for Oklahoma, a win over Alabama for a second straight year would only serve to bolster its CFP résumé, particularly because the Sooners remain on the outside looking in for an at-large berth as of now. Though they rank in the top 12, two conference champions — presumably the ACC and the top Group of 5 team — would take the final two spots in the 12-team playoff. Oklahoma had an open date after its win over Tennessee to prepare for Alabama, though coach Brent Venables said there is little carry-over from its result against the Tide last year.
“The season for both of us is impacted by the result at the end of the night,” he said. “Who wouldn’t be excited to play Oklahoma-Alabama? Two of the most iconic programs in college football.” — Andrea Adelson
Why the road to the ACC title game is up for grabs
The ACC is a hot mess, and not in the fun contestant on “Love Island” sort of way. It’s more of the “Oh, no, what if Duke wins the conference championship and they give the playoff berth to James Madison instead?” sort of way.
In other words, these are dark times for the conference.
Set aside that two of the biggest brands in the league — Clemson and Florida State — are floundering through lost seasons.
Set aside that its four highest-ranked teams have all lost to unranked foes in the past two weeks.
Set aside the very real possibility that the eventual league champion might have a loss to UConn, West Virginia or Baylor.
Any one of those items would be bad enough. But it’s the fact that they’re all happening concurrently, that Miami is sabotaging itself again and injuries upended Louisville and Virginia runs, and Pat Narduzzi is waxing poetic about Notre Dame scoring 100 against Pitt — it’s a perfect storm of bad results, bad press and bad options remaining for the ACC.
Look at NC State, a team that’s stuck navigating a disappointing 5-4 campaign in which it lost to woeful Virginia Tech, but also has delivered brutal blows to both Virginia’s and Georgia Tech‘s playoff hopes and could add Miami to that list this weekend. There are no winners here!
There’s an argument that much of this is just a narrative issue, that when the SEC beats up on itself, it’s a testament to the conference’s depth, but when the ACC does it, it means everyone stinks. There’s some truth in that argument. But the results still tell a bleak story. Coming off a 2-11 bowl season in 2024, the ACC now has six losses outside of the Power 4 and a worse record in Power 4 nonconference wins than the American Conference. No wonder the ACC doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
So now we peer into the future and wonder what comes next. Georgia Tech has the best odds of winning the league, according to FPI, at 35%. But next up is Duke at 20%. The Blue Devils have losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn, and if they were to win it all, there’s a good chance the ACC gets passed by a second Group of 5 champion — something the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives a 26% chance of happening. The same might be true if SMU wins it. The Mustangs have the third-best odds at 19.5%, followed by Virginia (13.6%) and Pitt (4%). The highest-ranked ACC team, Miami, has the lowest title odds of teams with a chance to still win it, and has a better chance of making the playoff than the ACC title game.
In other words, the ACC Wheel of Destiny is back in action, Coastal Chaos has spread throughout the entire conference, and the next few weeks will either see a true favorite emerge or ensure the ACC is the most derided power league in recent memory. — Hale
Quotes of the week
“Absolutely not,” Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said when asked if Saturday’s visit from Notre Dame is a “must-win” game for the Panthers. “It’s not an ACC game. Glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103 … or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two. Again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as we can.”
“This team didn’t beat Texas,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of his Bulldogs, who swept Texas across two meetings in 2024. “And Texas hasn’t played this team of ours. So, two completely different teams in my opinion. I think it has zero effect on it.”
Texas A&M’s Mike Elko on South Carolina’s 2025 schedule, which ranks fourth in strength of schedule nationally, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index: “I don’t know what they did to the scheduling gods to get the schedule that they’ve got.”
“I was told about it. I haven’t heard it,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney mimicking his voice over the weekend after Venables visited the program in Week 11. “He’s got me down. He’s got about everybody down. He’s good at the impressions.”
Dabo Swinney channeling his inner Brent Venables is pure gold pic.twitter.com/LwRQtAc4Nh
— Jordan Woodson (@Jordan_Woodson) November 9, 2025
“I’ve actually won a championship and we’re going to do it again,” Florida State’s Mike Norvell said in a passionate defense of his track record and the Seminoles’ trajectory. “We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this.”
“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” said North Carolina‘s Bill Belichick following questions about potential interest in the New York Giants head coaching job.
“Look I’ve been down this road before,” Belichick continued. “I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”
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Week 12 best bets: Why points will be hard to come by for Boise State, TCU and UCF
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3 hours agoon
November 13, 2025By
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Pamela MaldonadoNov 13, 2025, 09:00 AM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Week 12 is here, and the board finally feels like it’s talking back. Some totals are whispering, some spreads are screaming and a couple of these games … well, they’re practically sending handwritten invitations.
This week’s card is a mix of unders (been loving my under lately) that make too much sense, a dog that plays like it wants to bite, and a few matchups where the math and the matchup actually agree for once.
Think of it as a little buffet of conviction.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Boise State team total UNDER 19.5
With Max Cutforth at quarterback, this offense simply loses its punch. His 4.4 yards per attempt and 51% completion rate limits the explosive abilities right now, it’s a unit trying to survive through the run game and short-field drives.
That’s a problem against a San Diego State defense that’s been elite at home. The Aztecs have allowed just 31 total points in their four home games, holding three opponents to seven points or less.
Their front should overwhelm a Boise State offensive line that’s given up 18 sacks on the season breaking in a new QB behind center. Boise State’s run game has been solid, but this matchup flips its strength against San Diego State’s biggest advantage, a front seven that wins early downs and forces third-and-longs.
San Diego State’s methodical pace also limits possessions. The math, the matchup and the trend all align. Boise State’s defense might keep it close, but the offense doesn’t have enough juice to cash this over.
Bet to make: Jacksonville State +3.5
The Gamecocks have found their rhythm with a ground game that is among the best in Conference USA, averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.
RB Cam Cook has been a steady force, while QB Caden Creel‘s mobility adds another layer that keeps defenses guessing. They don’t rely on big plays as much as they wear teams down with tempo, time of possession and physicality.
That style is exactly what can frustrate a Kennesaw State defense that has been solid overall but has shown cracks against run-heavy offenses late in games.
Jacksonville State has the game to survive close ones. The +3.5 provides cushion in what should be another possession-for-possession battle. If your bankroll allows for a bit more volatility, the +140 money line is worth a look.
Jacksonville State has the formula to control pace and pull off another outright win.
Bet to make: UCF team total Under 10.5
Texas Tech is built to smother teams like UCF. The Knights’ offense is running on fumes, and the matchup in Lubbock feels like walking into a buzzsaw.
The Knights are averaging 11.3 points per game in conference play on the road, with a drop-off that’s been steep from moving the ball between the 20s to completely stalling once they cross midfield. That’s the biggest red flag going up against a Texas Tech defensive front, led by David Bailey and Romello Height, that sits among the best in the country in pressure rate and sacks.
The problem is twofold: protection and finishing. UCF’s offensive line has struggled to handle pressure, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in sacks with 29 while leading the country in pressures. When you combine that with UCF’s 32% third-down rate, it paints a picture of a team that’s constantly behind the sticks, forced into long-yardage situations it can’t convert. Even if UCF moves the ball, red zone trips have been few and unproductive.
It’s hard to find a realistic path to 11 points for the Knights. Texas Tech has size, depth and energy at home. UCF’s offense simply doesn’t.
Bet to make: TCU team total Under 23.5
BYU’s entire identity is built on reducing possessions, winning with efficiency and forcing opponents into long fields. Its defense is not elite on a yards basis, but it tightens in the red zone and creates game-changing moments with sacks and interceptions. Add it up, and 21 sacks, 12 interceptions and a positive turnover ratio tell you this defense plays opportunistic football.
The other piece of this is BYU’s offense, which runs for 200 yards per game and controls time of possession. That’s a huge part of why I lean under rather than a side. If BYU plays its game, it shrinks the possessions and keeps opponents to eight or nine true scoring opportunities. TCU needs efficiency to break 24 points. The Horned Frogs haven’t been that team away from home.
BYU’s defense gets the pricing respect. TCU’s total is shaded to the under and BYU is favored because its style travels and its defense sustains it.
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